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Re: 11-22-08
Mark Lawrence
10* GOY Nevada
Mark Lawrence
10* GOY Nevada
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Re: 11-22-08
Scott Rickenbach
TITLE: *GAME OF THE YEAR* 8-0 100% $50.00
REASON FOR PICK: Scott Rickenbach's 2* (Top Play) for Saturday and his College Football Game of the Year is on Game #171 - Brigham Young Cougars (+) @ Utah @ 6 PM ET – Who better to put an end to Utah’s undefeated season than rival Brigham Young. Of course the beauty here is that the Cougars can still fall short of the outright upset and yet we can still get the win here as a tight loss serves our purposes just fine. On that note, there are a number of books with +7.5 available as of late Friday afternoon and this is very significant as ten of the last eleven meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. Although we’re not big on the “history” of match-ups that still doesn’t hurt our odds here either. This is a big rivalry game that, in the past, has had a tendency to come down to the last possession. This line was smaller earlier in the week and has been driven up and we certainly understand the move. What everyone is looking at here is likely to be the TCU match-up as that was when both of these teams were truly tested. The Utes came out with a win and the Cougars came out with an “ugly” loss…at least in terms of the scoreboard. What we will now proceed to do is tell you the real story behind those TCU games and why we feel Brigham Young has a great shot at the outright win here.
Before we take a closer look at the game where Utah matched up with TCU, let’s note that this was one of many close games for the Utes this season. Five of Utah’s 11 wins have come by seven points or less this season. They only beat Air Force by seven and they’ve had three wins by just three points and another victory came by just two points. One of the three point wins came against TCU and the Utes never should have won that game, it’s as simple as that. Beyond the fact that TCU had dominated all game long and yet didn’t have the points to show for it, the real “kicker” was that the Horned Frogs kicker missed not one, but two, fairly short field goals last in the game. Make them both and it would have been game over. Beyond that though TCU just was so dominant in that game and what people won’t understand is that BYU wasn’t nearly as dominated by the Horned Frogs as the final score shows. That is the lone blemish on the Cougars record this season and even though the final score was ugly, BYU marched down the field time and time again and got into TCU territory and then came up short. The point is that the Cougars did move the ball on the Horned Frogs and that TCU defense is one of the best in the nation so that’s saying a lot. Statistically it the Horned Frogs got big yardage on their final drive of the game, when it was already decided. If you take that out the stats were nearly equal in the game! The point is that, despite the scores, we more impressed with how BYU played against TCU than how Utah did against the Horned Frogs.
This week, the Utes will once again be exposed, just like they have in every game when they faced tougher competition. We knew we’d want to fade the Utes after their “miracle win” over the Horned Frogs but we knew last week, with a weak San Diego State team was not the time. This week, it IS the time! The Utes have seen five of their eleven wins come by an average margin of 3.6 points per game and, if they some how manage to “pull the rabbit out of the hat” with another tight win we’ll be just fine with the big points offered here. However, here are the keys to this victory. Big games like this can be won in the trenches and we feel that the Cougars are much stronger in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this match-up. Also, BYU has a prolific offense with a fantastic QB. We are well aware of the injury situation with the tight end but we do expect him to play. His brother-in-law (the Cougars QB!) said he expects him to play. This offense is a monster to slow down and we feel that the Utes can not keep up. We’ve seen them get bogged down in big games and the Cougars defense is better than many people think. Be careful looking at bigger points allowed against weaker opposition. Those are letdown games. When BYU faces a tough opponent they will bring their “A game” on defense and, again, they did a better job against TCU than the final score shows. In summary, the Utes are very over-rated in our opinion and the Cougars are under-rated and in this, the final game of the regular season for each team, we take full advantage of that. One final note too, we really like having head coach Bronco Mendenhall on OUR sidelines in a game like this. Play Brigham Young plus the points as a Top Play selection.Comment
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Re: 11-22-08
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side
double-dime bet166 Nevada 6.0 (-110) BetUS vs 165 Boise St.
Analysis: The Nevada Wolf Pack has had this game circled since last year's tough 69-67 loss at Boise State. The Pack ran for 396 yards against the Broncos and nearly pulled off the straight-up upset as a 25-point underdog. They should enjoy similar success here at home and would love nothing more than to end Boise's hopes for a BCS bid and unbeaten season. Nevada has played outstanding since suffering a disappointing 38-31 loss at Hawaii back on October 25th, averaging 351 rushing yards in winning and covering two straight games. This will be the Broncos' toughest test to date, and I'm betting they leave Reno with their first loss. Back the Pack as my Double Dime NCAA Underdog Play O' the Week.
Please note: I am also making a Single Dime play on the Nevada moneyline at +200.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side
double-dime bet176 Arizona -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 175 Oregon St.
Analysis: There has been a lot of talk about Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl over USC since the Beavers won the head-to-head meeting earlier in the season. The Arizona Wildcats will have something to say about that though, bringing a perfect 5-0 ATS home record into this key Pac-10 battle. Oregon State is coming off a big 34-21 win over Cal last week at home, but this team is just 2-3 on the road. Meanwhile, Arizona has scored at least 40 points in four home wins and gained a lot of confidence in coming back from a 48-17 deficit last week at Oregon. The Wildcats scored 28 straight points to pull within 48-45 before falling 55-45 and realize they need to start off this game much differently. "Against Oregon State, we need to come out like we did in the second half," said Arizona TE Rob Gronkowski. If they do, I believe the Wildcats win this game by at least a touchdown, ending Oregon State's five-game winning streak and Rose Bowl hopes. Bet Arizona as my Double Dime Pac-10 Game O' the Week.
Matty O'Shea | CFB Side
double-dime bet154 Oklahoma -7.0 (+105) Bodog vs 153 Texas Tech
Analysis: The Oklahoma Sooners have won 23 straight home games and 59 of 61 there under head coach Bob Stoops. But it's obviously important to dig deeper and find out just how dominant they have been during that stretch. In their last 19 home wins, only one has been decided by less than 10 points. This game against Texas Tech is very similar to last year's matchup between Missouri and Oklahoma in Norman. The Sooners forced Tigers QB Chase Daniel into a pair of interceptions in that 41-31 win, and Red Raiders QB Graham Harrell has thrown three interceptions against them in the last two meetings. In fact, Oklahoma has totaled nine interceptions in its last four games overall, and I definitely think that key defensive advantage will be the difference here. The Sooners also have a much more balanced offense and should be able to control the clock with their powerful running game if they so choose. Bet Oklahoma as my Double Dime Big 12 Game O' the Week.Comment
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Re: 11-22-08
vegas-runner | CFB Side Single-Dime Bet
120 Northwestern 3.5 (-120) Bodog vs 119 Illinois
Analysis:
* 1* NCAAFB "MIDDLE" WAGER *
(BUY the 1/2 to +3.5)
With a few of the "Outfits" possibly looking to buy back some "Early Steam" on Illinois...I have decided that we should also go ahead and try for a middle, while reducing the liability down to only 2 Units...VR
Sat, 11/22/08 - 3:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Triple-Dime Bet
119 Illinois -2.5 (-110) Sportsbetting.com vs 120 Northwestern
Analysis: *** NCAAFB 3* "EARLY STEAM" GAME of the WEEK ***
Sat, 11/22/08 - 12:30 PMvegas-runner | CFB MoneyLine Double-Dime Bet
137 Tennessee (-130) Sportsbetting.com vs 138 Vanderbilt
Analysis:
** NCAAFB 2* TEASER BET **
(ALL 12pm est GAMES BELOW)
TENNESSEE +10.5 & VIRGINIA +10 (2*)...Teaser
** NCAAFB 2* "PRIME-TIME" ESPN WAGER **
1.) LOUISVILLE +7.5 (-120)...(2*)
** NCAAFB 2* TOTAL PLAY of the DAY **
1.) UNDER 44 ARMY/RUTGERS...(2*)
Sat, 11/22/08 - 7:00 PMvegas-runner | CFB Side Double-Dime Bet
176 Arizona -2.5 (-110) BetUS vs 175 Oregon St.
Analysis: ** NCAAFB 2* WAGER ** (Possible Upgrade)Comment
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Re: 11-22-08
VictoriousPlay
NCAAF Victorious Plays:
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma
This game will be more than a simple game. Texas Tech has a perfect and record and today has a major task to maintain it when they travel to face Oklahoma. Everyone is expecting a high scoring game since both teams have probably the best offensive lines in the league. Oklahoma is a rushing machine while Texas Tech relies pretty much on the passing skills of Harrell. In today’s game both teams will play to their best but according to our system, the edge should be on the home team and we should grab it. Normally in a game like this the defenses are tighter and the rushing is a better and safer tactic and in that sort of game, Oklahoma has a huge advantage.
Recommendation: 2* Oklahoma -7 @ -110
Brigham Young @ Utah
Great rivalry at stake in this game with Utah desperate to get the win to reach the BCS bowl but it won’t be easy because Utah is doing also a great season so far. Today is the type of game where the coaches don’t need to give motivational speeches. The intensity is already there and we do expect both teams to fight hard to get those points. None of the teams is a defensive one but both of them are more than capable of scoring points and we do expect them to score at least 55 points which is enough for us to get the Over.
Recommendation: 3* Over 53.5 @ -110
North Carolina State @ North Carolina
Our first game of the day is a game where we expect NC State to make it hard for NC to score. It’s going to be a tough contest and a type of game where normally the clock will run faster than the players. If you look at the stats of both teams, the difference is not as high as the line is showing but in a game like this you should be careful. We expect a close game with plenty of 3rd and 4th downs. Go with our system. Play the Under.
Recommendation: 3* Under 47.5 @ -110Comment
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