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Mitch Wilson
Dog of the day: Mets
Dog of the day: Mets
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Sportswagers MLB
Baltimore @ SAN FRANCISCO
Baltimore +104 over SAN FRAN
After being in pennant races for the past few years, not to mention a couple of World Series victories, the Giants find themselves in last place in the NL West, 14 games back of the Dodgers. One could fully understand how difficult it must be for the Giants to be stay motivated these days with the end in sight. Another problem that San Fran faces here is that the Orioles lead the majors in jacks with 154 and that could pose a problem for Matt Cain. You see, Cain has a fly-ball bias profile to go along with an 11% hr/f rate, which does not bode well against these power-hitting Orioles. Cain has not allowed more than two earned runs in four straight starts but three of those came at home against the Brewers, Cubbies and D-Backs. These Orioles are far more dangerous than that group. Cain also gets very little run support. In fact, the Giants have scored two runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts and when you factor in his 5.00 home ERA, it suggests his chances of losing here are far greater than his chances of winning. Cain has also seen an increase in his walk rate. Combine that with a 1.9 HR/9 with runners on base and it’s another problem that has been flammable at times this season. Cain is very appealing as a dog in certain spots but as the chalk in this spot, he is anything but.
Bud Norris was viewed as a #4-type starter when his name was being thrown out at the trade deadline, a perception that wasn't helped by the 6.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP he posted in July. Likewise, his skills dipped in July. Before giving up on Norris consider that he was pitching for the Astros for years and losing takes its toll. Suddenly, he winds up on a contender and his motivation and desire to do well skyrockets. Norris can pitch. He had a 93 mph average fastball in July and his swinging strike rate jumped from a nice 9.5% in to an upper-tier 10.8%. Only 10 starting pitchers in the AL had a higher swinging strike % in July than Norris did. Since coming over from the Astros, Norris is 2-0 in two starts after allowing just three earned runs over 12 frames. In those two starts in struck out 13 batters. Pitching for the playoff contending Orioles, a rejuvenated Bud Norris offers up all the value in this one.
Our Pick
Baltimore +104 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.08)
Oakland @ TORONTO
Oakland +109 over TORONTO
R.A Dickey redefined the knuckleball game last season, adding speed to a pitch that normally relies on deception, and parlaying that into a Cy Young award and a big contract. However, Dickey has been unable to match 2012's success for a variety of reasons. The velocity on Dickey's "fast knuckleball" is down from 83 mph to 81. His groundball rate continues to deteriorate and his control has fallen by the wayside, resulting in limited xERA potential. Dickey's transformation from finesse to "power" pitcher looks to be short-lived, which would be fine if his control and groundball rate were along for the ride but they've regressed further, hindering his chance for recovery. At home, things get even worse for Dickey, where he has been taken yard nine times in his past five home starts. Dickey comes in with a 5.97 home ERA. Only once in 12 home starts has he kept the ball in the park and that came against the White Sox back in April. In 75 IP at the Rogers Center, Dickey has been hammered for 18 bombs. That’s a sick number that should not be ignored here.
A.J. Griffin has a 3.91 ERA and 1.10 WHIP after 147 IP. With an average fastball velocity of 89.3 mph, it would seem that Griffin succeeds using means other than velocity. An analysis of his pitch movement confirms this assertion. His pitches have the second-most aggregate movement among AL starters. His curveball has been his biggest weapon. It's a pitch that has nearly nine inches of horizontal movement and eight inches of vertical movement. In 2012, batters had a .351 SLG% against his curveball. They have managed only a .302 SLG% against it so far in 2013. The movement he has gained on his curveball has made it a true plus pitch for him and it's a pitch that he uses often. With solid command against both LH and RH bats, Griffin and his curveball have the skills to post a strong ERA over the long haul. Also note that Griffin has enjoyed huge success against these Blue Jays hitters. Current Jays have just seven hits in 46 career AB’s against Griffin for a BA of just .152, making Griffin and the A’s even more appealing at a price.
Our Pick
Oakland +109 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.18)Comment
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Sportswagers NFL
Today's Free Picks for Aug 11, 2013
Buffalo @ INDIANAPOLIS
INDIANAPOLIS -4 +100 over Buffalo
1:30 PM EST. Last season the Colts over/under win total for the year was 5½ games. They destroyed that number by winning 11 games under first year coach Chuck Pagano. This season, Pagano is even more determined. The Colts have added several key components, especially to the offensive line to give QB Andrew Luck better protection and to establish a stronger running game and a more balanced attack. The Colts are also going to use plenty more offensive schemes, utilizing more check-downs and underneath routes for Luck. The Colts may also be the healthiest team in the NFL and they are not going to take it easy here. Pagano has openly stated that he wants to come out strong, especially on defense and special teams. There is a strong emphasis in this game for the Colts to put pressure on the QB and to finish tackles. Pagano set the tone last season with a resounding 38-3 win in the teams’ preseason opener and we all saw what followed after that. A sell-out crowd is expected and every player is excited to get back on the field. Expect Andrew Luck to play at least two series followed by veteran Matt Hasselbeck, who has been sharp in camp and who could certainly rip apart a group of second and third string defenders.
As for the Bills, well, they have added some nice pieces in the off-season but expect to see very little of any of them here. Some starters may play a series or two but new head coach, Doug Marrone will get them out of there quickly. Many of the Bills starters are not even suiting up for this one because of nagging but not serious injuries. Don't expect Bills defensive coordinator Mike Pettine to unveil many of his defensive schemes either. Limited snaps from key defensive components Kyle Williams and Mario Williams will mute that in the preseason opener. The Bills are also forced to go with two raw rookie QB’s in EJ Manuel and Jeff Tuel. The Bills have practiced fast, calling their plays as quickly as they can to keep the defense on its heels but this isn’t a practice squad test. This is the real thing against a determined defense. Both Manuel and Teul have very little chance of success here. The Bills are extremely weak in the defensive backfield and that’s with their first stringers. It’s been reported that the secondary has gotten beaten regularly in training camp and now they have to face Andrew Luck and won't catch much of a break when Hasselbeck enters. Buffalo is going with a lot of rookies today. Two rookie QB’s, rookies on both offense and defense and a rookie head coach. Expect plenty of mistakes from these Bills and expect the Colts to capitalize on them. Pagano set a tone last year and we expect him to do the same this year. Bills will be better, or at least more exciting this season but not in their opener on the road.
Our Pick
INDIANAPOLIS -4 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)Comment
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BookiesHunter
13-3 L6 days
58-27 run
2* Over 8.5 Tigers/Yankees
1* Over 36.5 Bills/ColtsComment
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River City Sharps
2 UNITS Phillies/Nationals OVER 7 -115Comment
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Teddy Covers
10* Orioles
10* RoyalsComment
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Betting Line Moves
San Diego +170 FH
NYY +160 FHComment
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Chance Lockwood Plays and Daily Chance Sunday 8/11
Premium Selections:
Take Atlanta Braves Run Line -115 vs. Miami Marlins
Take Pittsburgh Pirates -131 vs. Colorado Rockies
Daily Chance:
Detroit Tigers at NY Yankees (1:05 pm): Detroit Tigers -173
LA Angels at Cleveland (1:05 pm): LA Angels +180
Oakland A's at Toronto Blue Jays (1:07 pm): Oakland A's +108
San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds (1:10 pm): Cincinnati Reds -184
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves (1:35 pm): Atlanta Braves Run Line -115
Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (2:10 pm): Chicago White Sox -133
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (2:10 pm): Boston Red Sox -115
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros (2:10 pm): Houston Astros +164
Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 pm): St Louis Cardinals Run Line +105
Baltimore Orioles at San Francisco Giants (4:05 pm): Baltimore Orioles +107
Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies (4:10 pm): Pittsburgh Pirates -131
NY Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 pm): NY Mets +133
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners (4:10 pm): Milwaukee Brewers +185
Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (5:05 pm): Washington Nationals Run Line -105
Tampa Bay at LA Dodgers (8:05 pm): LA Dodgers -184
Overall Records:
Premium Selections: 8-13 -7.28
Daily Chance Card: 114-79 +19.22Comment
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Kelso
15 pirates
5 orioles
10 colts nflComment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty missed with the Reds on Saturday and likes the Reds on Sunday.
The deficit is 1475 sirignanos.Comment
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ASL Sports Group 8/11
Tigers Over 8.5
Twins +125
Cubs +175
Astros +165
Rockies +130Comment
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Sports Cash System Play of the Day 8/11
Baltimore Orioles +104 over the San Francisco Giants
(System Record: 119-5, Lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 119-106Comment
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BOB BALFE
NFLx
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -3.5
The Buffalo Bills have a tough quarterback situation and its only going to get worst with two young quarterbacks playing the majority of the game today on the road. The Colts actually have a decent rotation and they have a serious package of really good and speedy wide receivers. This could be their year to advance deep into the playoffs. Take Indianapolis.Comment
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GoodFella Sunday MLB Team Total
CHICAGO WHITE SOX OVER 4 RUNSComment
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Spartan MLB Total Sun, 08/11/13 - 5:05 PM
dime bet - 912 WAS / 911 PHI - OVER 7Comment
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