8-28-13

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UFC Fight Night 27 betting: Condit's experience will KO Kampmann
By MMAODDSBREAKER

UFC Fight Night 27: Carlos Condit (-250) vs. Martin Kampmann (+210)

The main event of UFC Fight Night 27 is a five-round welterweight war between Carlos Condit and Martin Kampmann. This fight is a rematch of their 2009 bout in which Kampmann took a controversial split decision in a fight that many believe Condit won.

Condit (28-7) is one of the best welterweights on the planet and one of the most devastating finishers in the entire sport, winning 26 of 28 fights by way of stoppage. The 29 year old trains with a great camp at Greg Jackson’s and he’s worked hard to get his wrestling on par with his vicious striking and slick BJJ, which is some of the best in the entire division.

Although Condit is coming off two straight losses, those blemishes were to Georges St-Pierre and Johny Hendricks - the two best welterweights in the world. Those losses won’t hurt Condit, they will only make him grow as a martial artist, and his experience from those fights will help him get revenge against Kampmann.

Kampmann (20-6) is a perennial welterweight contender and one of the most well-rounded fighters with a combination of technical striking and savvy ground game. The 31 year old hasn’t fought since last November when he was KO’d by Hendricks at UFC 154, so really he has less than a minute of cage time in over a year with his last win coming over Jake Ellenberger in June 2012.

The layoff will surely hurt him against a tireless warrior like Condit and, although Kampmann got his hand raised in their first fight, this is a bad spot for him to come back to after that long layoff. This fight is going to be a war.

For the first two rounds I see both men standing in the pocket and chucking bombs at one another to the delight of the Indianapolis crowd.

Eventually all of Condit’s strikes are going to add up, Kampmann is going to wear down, and then Condit’s experience in the championship bouts will pay dividends as he finds his openings and beats up Kampmann so badly that the referee is forced to step in and stop the fight.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's American League games:

Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (-153, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez allowed five runs over five innings in his last encounter with the Rangers, falling to 12-19 against them in his career.

Hot batting stat: Rangers OF David Murphy is a .329 career hitter with three homers and 16 RBIs in 73 at-bats against Hernandez.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: Seattle is 1-9 in Hernandez's last 10 home starts against teams with winning records.

Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (-161, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Doug Fister is 5-4 with a 2.45 ERA and just three home runs allowed in 66 career innings against the Athletics.

Hot batting stat: Detroit OF Torii Hunter, the only Tigers batter to have faced Athletics starter Dan Straily, is 4-for-7 with a pair of solo home runs against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: Detroit has won seven consecutive Wednesday games.

New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (+123, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda has been dreadful in back-to-back road starts, surrendering 12 runs over 11 2/3 innings in losses to Boston and Tampa Bay.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays SS Jose Reyes is 7-for-15 with a double and two triples in his career against Kuroda.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 22-5-1 in Kuroda's last 28 road starts.

Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox (-141, 9.5)

Hot pitching stat: Red Sox right-hander John Lackey is 12-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 142 1/3 career innings against the Orioles.

Hot batting stat: Every member of the Boston roster to have faced Orioles starter Bud Norris has at least one hit against him except for OF Jacoby Ellsbury, who is 0-for-4.

Weather: There will be a 25 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms at gametime. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing from right to left field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 9-1-1 in Lackey's last 11 starts against a team with a winning record.

Los Angeles Angels at Tampa Bay Rays (-161, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Rays right-hander Chris Archer is coming off back-to-back impressive outings, allowing a combined three runs on eight hits in 14 innings against the New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays.

Hot batting stat: Angels OF Mike Trout will bat better than .300 for a career-best fourth consecutive month.

Weather: Dome.

Key betting note: The under is 11-2 in Tampa Bay's last 13 Wednesday games.

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins (+122, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Royals left-hander Bruce Chen is coming off consecutive rough outings against Detroit and Washington, surrendering 13 runs over nine innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Twins 1B Justin Morneau is 5-for-22 with seven strikeouts in his career against Chen.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from center field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Kansas City is 6-0 in Chen's last six Wednesday starts.

Houston Astros at Chicago White Sox (-205, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Astros right-hander Jarred Cosart has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his first seven major-league starts.

Cold batting stat: Members of the Houston roster are a combined 7-for-38 with 16 strikeouts against Chicago starter Chris Sale.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 10 mph.

Key betting note: Chicago is 6-1 in Sale's last seven home starts against a team with a losing record.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, weather forecast and stats as of 2:25 p.m. ET Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wednesday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Wednesday's National League games:

Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers (-225, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Cubs right-hander Edwin Jackson has struggled of late, going 0-2 in his previous four starts while surrendering 20 runs over that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Chicago C Dioner Navarro has seven hits in 15 career-at bats against Dodgers starter Ricky Nolasco, with two double and a homer.

Weather: Clear skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-80s. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Dodgers are 8-1 in their last nine Wednesday games.

Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates (-161, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton is enjoying his best stretch of the season, posting four consecutive quality starts while allowing just seven runs over 27 2/3 innings in that span.

Cold batting stat: Pittsburgh 3B Pedro Alvarez is 1-for-5 with three strikeouts in his career against Brewers starter Tom Gorzelanny.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with a 60 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms that will taper off by 8 pm. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 14-3 in Morton's last 17 home starts.

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals (-260, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg had one of the worst starts of his career in his last encounter with Miami, lasting just two innings while allowing seven runs on five hits and four walks.

Hot batting stat: Miami slugger Giancarlo Stanton has had the upper hand on Strasburg to date, going 7-for-17 with two homers and five RBIs in his career.

Weather: There is a 35 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s while wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The under is 6-1-1 in Strasburg's last eight Wednesday starts.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (+137, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels has surrendered a paltry 10 runs over his last six starts, though he's only 1-1 over that stretch.

Cold batting stat: Hamels has dominated Mets OF Lucas Duda, who is just 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow out to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Mets have lost seven consecutive games against left-handed starters.

Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (-149, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Reds right-hander homer Bailey is just 3-9 with a 5.61 ERA in 15 career starts against the Cardinals.

Cold batting stat: Cardinals starter Adam Wainwright is one of the few pitchers to have contained Cincinnati 1B Joey Votto, holding him to three hits in 23 at-bats against him.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Cincinnati has lost Bailey's last seven road starts against St. Louis.

San Francisco Giants at Colorado Rockies (-104, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Giants right-hander Madison Bumgarner was masterful in his last encounter with the Rockies, limiting them to a run on four hits over seven innings of a 5-2 win.

Hot batting stat: San Francisco C Buster Posey has seven hits in 13 career at-bats against Colorado starter Jhoulys Chacin.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will be calm.

Key betting note: The Giants have won just twice in their last 14 Wednesday games.

San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-177, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Wade Miley has surrendered three runs or fewer in 14 of his last 15 starts, and has given up just three home runs in his previous seven outings.

Hot batting stat: Giants SS Everth Cabrera has eight hits - including a triple and a homer - in 14 career at-bats against Miley, and went 2-for-3 with a walk in their last encounter June 15.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-90s under mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 6-0 in umpire Cory Blaser's last six games behind home plate.

Interleague

Cleveland Indians at Atlanta Braves (-112, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Indians right-hander Justin Masterson has been strong in back-to-back road starts, allowing four runs over 14 1/3 innings against Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels.

Hot batting stat: Braves OF B.J. Upton is 4-for-10 with a home run and four walks in his career against Masterson.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Cleveland has won 12 of its last 15 games against a lefty starter.

** Odds, probable starting pitchers, weather forecast and stats as of 1:15 p.m. ET Tuesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chicago Syndicate

Top Plays

NL Game of the Month - Cardinals

Twins
Astros/White Sox Under 7.5
Dodgers/Cubs Over 7.5
Phillies

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LA Syndicate

Top Plays

Dodgers/Cubs Over 7.5
Giants/Rockies Over 9
Padres/Diamondbacks Under 9
Angels/Rays Over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Pittsburgh

The Pirates look to snap their 3-game losing streak and build on their 5-0 record in Charlie Morton's last 5 home starts against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Pirates favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at LA Dodgers (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Jackson) 14.934; LA Dodgers (Nolasco) 14.389 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-230); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+190); Over

Game 953-954: Miami at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (Alvarez) 14.562; Washington (Strasburg) 15.959 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-240); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-240); Under

Game 955-956: Milwaukee at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gorzelanny) 14.558; Pittsburgh (Morton) 15.951 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Under

Game 957-958: Philadelphia at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 14.195; NY Mets (Matsuzaka) 15.282 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-160); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+140); Over

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Bailey) 14.869; St. Louis (Wainwright) 16.386 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 8 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 961-962: San Francisco at Colorado (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 15.756; Colorado (Chacin) 14.617 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Colorado (-110); 9 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-110); Over

Game 963-964: San Diego at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Erlin) 15.726; Arizona (Miley) 14.606 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Arizona (-180); 9 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+160); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Seattle (3:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Perez) 14.910; Seattle (Hernandez) 15.834 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Seattle (-135); 7 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-135); Under

Game 967-968: Oakland at Detroit (7:08 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Straily) 16.543; Detroit (Fister) 15.419 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+150); Over

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 15.273; Toronto (Redmond) 13.953 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-140); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-140); Under

Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 16.789; Boston (Lackey) 15.697 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-165); 9 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+145); Over

Game 973-974: LA Angels at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Richards) 15.476; Tampa Bay (Archer) 16.982 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Minnesota (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Duffy) 16.256; Minnesota (Albers) 14.350 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 8 Vegas Line: Kansas City (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-125); Under

Game 977-978: Houston at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Cosart) 16.261; White Sox (Sale) 15.289 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-220); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Houston (+180); Over

Game 979-980: Cleveland at Atlanta (7:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 16.167; Atlanta (Maholm) 15.030 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+100); Over

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Washington at Atlanta

The Dream look to snap a 2-game losing streak and build on their 15-4 ATS record in their last 19 home games. Atlanta is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Dream favored by 10 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 651-652: Washington at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 107.441; Atlanta 117.835 Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 10 1/2; 144 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 150 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7 1/2); Under

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 4-0, 2.97 in his last five starts.
-- Strasburg is 1-0, 2.81 in his last four starts.
-- Morton is 2-0, 2.60 in his last four starts.
-- Hamels is 1-0, 1.89 in his last five starts.
-- Wainwright is 2-0, 1.96 in his last three starts. Bailey is 3-0, 3.34 in his last five outings.
-- Chacin is 3-2, 2.29 in his last five starts.
-- Miley is 3-0, 2.36 in his last six starts.

-- Masterson is 4-2, 3.04 in his last seven starts.

-- Hernandez is 1-1, 1.29 in his last two home starts. Perez is 4-0, 3.07 in his last four outings.
-- Fister is 5-1, 2.56 in his last eight starts.
-- Lackey is 1-0, 2.70 in his last couple home starts.
-- Richards is 1-1, 0.89 in his last three road starts. Archer is 1-0, 1.93 in his last couple starts.
-- Cosart is 1-1, 1.80 in seven starts this season.
-- Kansas City won both Duffy starts (1-0, 1.86).

Cold pitchers
-- Jackson is 0-2, 8.18 in his last four starts.
-- Alvarez is 0-2, 5.76 in his last four starts.
-- Gorzelanny is 0-1, 12.97 in his last couple starts.
-- Matsuzaka allowed five runs in five IP in his first start for the Mets.
-- Giants lost last four Bumgarner starts (0-2, 4.50).
-- Erlin is 0-2, 9.64 in his last three starts, last of which was July 7.

-- Maholm is 0-3, 9.95 in his last four starts.

-- Kuroda is 1-3, 5.19 in his last four starts. Toronto lost last four Redmond starts (0-1, 5.89).
-- Straily is 0-4, 6.75 in his last six starts.
-- Norris has a 7.63 RA in his last three starts, but Baltimore won all five of his starts (3-0, 5.08).
-- Albers is 0-1, 7.11 in his last two starts.
-- Sale is 3-4, 4.13 in his last seven starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Jackson 9-26; Nolasco 7-26
-- Alvarez 1-9; Strasburg 6-25
-- Gorzelanny 3-9; Morton 2-13
-- Hamels 4-27 (1 of last 17); Matsuzaka 1-1
-- Bailey 3-26 (0 of last 8); Wainwright 7-27 (3 of last 7)
-- Bumgarner 3-26 (0 of last 6); Chacin 2-25 (0 of last 20)
-- Erlin 2-4; Miley 8-26 (4 of last 8)

-- Masterson 5-27; Maholm 6-21 (3 of last 5

-- Perez 6-13; Hernandez 4-27 (1 of last 14)
-- Straily 5-21; Fister 6-27 (1 of last 8)
-- Kuroda 6-26 (0 of last 9); Redmond 2-8
-- Norris 10-24 (3 of last 3); Lackey 9-23 (3 of last 6)
-- Richards 1-10; Archer 5-16 (3 of last 4)
-- Duffy 1-2; Albers 1-4
-- Cosart 2-7; Sale 8-25

Totals
-- Five of last six Washington games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight Milwaukee games went over total.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Philadelphia games.
-- Last four Bailey starts went over the total.
-- Under is 7-0-1 in last eight Colorado games.
-- Four of last six San Diego games stayed under total.
-- Under is 15-5-2 in last 22 Dodger home games.

-- Five of last six Atlanta games stayed under the total.

-- Six of last seven Oakland games went over the total.
-- 12 of last 16 Toronto games stayed under the total.
-- Five of last seven Angel games stayed under the total.
-- Eight of last eleven Baltimore games went over the total.
-- Nine of last 12 White Sox games stayed under the total; eight of last eleven Houston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Kansas City games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Seattle home games.

Hot teams
-- Nationals won six of their last seven games.
-- Brewers are 8-4 in their last twelve road games.
-- St Louis won nine of its last eleven games.
-- Phillies won seven of their last ten games.
-- Colorado won seven of its last nine home games.
-- Arizona won eight of its last ten home games.
-- Dodgers are 47-13 in last 60 games, 5-5 in last ten.

-- Atlanta won five of its last six home games. Indians won five of their last seven games overall.

-- Oakland won three of its last four games.
-- Angels won last four games, outscoring foes 20-7.
-- Red Sox won four of their last five games.
-- White Sox won nine of their last 11 games. Houston won three of last five.
-- Kansas City won its last three games, scoring 23 runs.
-- Texas won 21 of its last 27 games.

Cold teams
-- Marlins lost five of their last six games.
-- Pirates lost ten of their last sixteen games.
-- Mets lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Cincinnati lost three of its last four games.
-- Giants lost six of their last nine road games.
-- San Diego lost four of its last five road games.
-- Cubs lost 16 of their last 23 games.

-- Tigers lost four of their last five home games.
-- Rays lost their last three games, allowing 20 runs.
-- Orioles lost last four road games, allowing 27 runs.
-- Blue Jays lost 12 of their last 19 games. Bronx lost three of last five.
-- Mariners lost their last five games, outscored 26-8.
-- Twins lost eight of their last eleven games.

Umpires
-- Chi-LA-- 14 of last 16 Danley games stayed under total.
-- Mia-Wsh-- Four of last five Barry games went over total.
-- Mil-Pitt-- Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Davis games.
-- Phil-NY-- 11 of last 15 Hernandez games went over total.
-- Cin-StL-- Underdogs are 11-8 in last 19 TWelke games; over is 3-0-1 in his last four games behind the plate.
-- SF-Col-- Seven of last eight Cooper games stayed under total.
-- SD-Az-- Three of last four Blaser games stayed under the total.

-- Cle-Atl-- Last nine Joyce games stayed under the total.

-- Tex-Sea-- 10 of last 15 Scott games stayed under the total.
-- A's-Det-- Favorites won last seven Darling games, with four of last five going over the total.
-- NY-Tor-- Five of last six Wolcott games went over the total.
-- Balt-Bos-- Six of last seven Hudson games went over the total.
-- LA-TB-- Nine of last twelve Diaz games went over the total.
-- KC-Min-- Under is 12-6 in last 18 Wendelstedt games, with underdogs winning four of his last five games behind the plate.
-- Hst-Chi-- Underdogs won five of last six Culbreth games; under is 3-1-1 in his last five games behind the plate.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SMASH THE BOOK

Wednesday 8/28
MLB
** 957 NY Mets OVER 7.5 -110 **

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Baseball Crusher
Cleveland Indians +107 over Atlanta Braves
(System Record: 71-7, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 71-73-2

Soccer Crusher
ASA Arapiraca + Figueirense UNDER 3 (Brazil) pending
Atletico MG + Botafogo RJ OVER 2.5
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 446-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 446-384-59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1086-817 (57 + %) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner WED Phillies w/ Hammels

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Wednesday

Red Sox -155

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Cappers Access

Tigers(RL) -1.5(+105)
Indians +115

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Joe Wiz

Free Play Wednesday Minnesota/Kansas City Under 9