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Today's Free Picks for Aug 28, 2013
L.A. Angels @ TAMPA BAY
L.A. Angels +156 over TAMPA BAY
We’ve said it over and over again in every sport that these “spoilers” are extremely dangerous. These teams that are playing out the string have nothing to lose. Wins and losses to these spoilers mean nothing, which allows them to play aggressively, not worry about mistakes and just go out there and try and make life miserable for the contenders. Every professional athlete will agree that the next best thing to being in contention is to defeat teams fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch. The Angels came in here last night and took the opener 6-5 and they have a much more favorable pitching matchup here. Chris Archer comes in with a 7-5 record and a nifty 2.93 after 16 starts. He’s also coming off a seven inning, four-hit gem against the Yankees, which has increased his stock even more. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, a lot of folks are going to feel comfortable backing him but we say otherwise. Keep in mind that Archer has been the beneficiary of this trifecta help in July and his last two August starts; 16% hit rate, 91% strand rate%, 2% hr/f. His base skills are league average with 32 walks and 66 K’s in 95 innings, a 45% groundball rate and just nine quality starts in 16 attempts. Archer is serviceable, no doubt but we can bank on inconsistency down the stretch and this is the perfect spot for that to occur.
Garrett Richards is back in the Angels' rotation after a four-month hiatus and has posted a 2.55 ERA in five starts since being re-inserted. He's flamed out as a starter twice in the past already so it’s hard to put much faith in such a small sample size but his skills tell us to keep riding him. Richards has made some key improvements this season. He struggled with control in 2012, which led to some disastrous starts (22%/22% quality start/disaster start). In eight total starts this year, with improved command: 90% quality start/10% disaster start. A groundball pitcher throughout his minor league career, Richards' groundball rate has spiked to extreme levels this season (65%), a sign that he's doing nice a job at keeping his heater down. Richards’ fastball has been consistently in the 95-96 MPH range. Garrett Richards is a pitcher that has paid his dues. He has some promising seeds and according to xERA, some nice room for growth. This combination of the Angels and Richards is very undervalued and absolutely worth a bet.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
Oakland @ DETROIT
DETROIT -1½ +121 over Oakland
Oakland belted out 14 runs over the past two days at this park and most of the damage was done against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. The A’s continue to defy logic with an average pitching staff and a below average offense, yet they continue to win games at the same rate as some of the best teams in baseball. You may have also noticed that we didn’t spot the 1½-runs the past two days with the Tigers because both Verlander and Sanchez have not been in great form. Enter Doug Fister. Pitching in the shadows of the aforementioned duo and Max Scherzer, this steady right-hander gathers wins, not headlines. While he’s not contending for a Cy Young award like Scherzer, Fister has done yeoman’s work, contributing an 11-6 record and 3.54 ERA. It’s not hard to see why Fister is thriving either. He has great control, as usual. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, his command is basically unchanged the past three years. Fister’s groundball % has steadily increased over the past four years and it’s now at an elite 57% this season. While his fastball (average 88.5 mph) is nothing special, it works for him—he’s been at this level for years. A 69/15% dominant start/disaster start split is another measure of his success this year. Detroit has won seven of Fister’s last eight starts. In four of those eight games, Fister has allowed one earned run or fewer and has a great chance to do something similar here.
Dan Straily was rocked in his last start (3.1 IP, 6 ER) in Baltimore on August 23 and he faces a tougher test here against a Tigers squad in a foul mood. Straily now barely made it to the fifth inning in five of his past six outings and overall, the A’s have dropped six of his past seven starts. Over that seven game span, Straily posted a 5.04 ERA and 5.30 xERA and there are more disasters forthcoming. Straily’s control is eroding. He’s walked 14 batters over his past 25 innings and he also has a fly-ball bias profile of 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball. Straily’s WHIP over his past five starts is at 1.68. Let us also remind you that Straily made the jump last year as a rookie from Double-AA to the big leagues in August. After surviving his fly-ball profile in the minors, Straily’s first seven MLB starts had its ups and downs with two disasters. The league knew little about him then but they have caught up to him now and he’s a pitcher in trouble. Straily’s confidence is shot and these Tigers know a little about going in for the kill on a wounded prey.
Our Pick
DETROIT -1½ +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Kansas City @ MINNESOTA
Kansas City -114 over MINNESOTA
The Royals came in here last night and took the opener 6-1. K.C. has now won six of the past seven meetings against the Twins while outscoring Minnesota 52-25 over that span. The Royals are on a current 5-0 run in Minnesota this season while outscoring the Twinkies 33-16 over that span. Expect more of the same here. Southpaw Andrew Albers may be up for the rest of the season because Minnesota is running out of valid options on the farm. Albers has made four starts since being called up August 6 and comes into this one with a shiny ERA of 3.00. We’re not buying in because Albers has been aided greatly by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Fatigue might become an issue down over the last month, as Albers averaged just under 100 IP the previous 2 seasons and is already up to 162 innings this season split between the minors and majors. He’s also been whacked in back-to-back starts against the Tigers and White Sox and will face a Royals team that is fifth in the majors against lefties with a team batting average of .264. Albers’ 11 K’s in 30 innings at this level suggest that further correction in his 3.00 ERA is coming.
Put Danny Duffy high on your radar and expect to reap the rewards this season and into next. Duffy's 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the minors this year is partly a result of being hit hard in six of his first seven outings coming off Tommy John surgery in June 2012. Duffy started the Triple-A phase of his return with 11 BB in 15.1 IP but he's improved greatly with 12 BB in his last 38 IP. Duffy then proceeded to strike out 19 batters over his final two minor league starts. In his first start this season after one relief appearance, all Duffy did was throw a six-inning, one-hitter against the Tigers. In 9.2 innings, he’s struck out 10 batters. In May of last year, we reported that Duffy’s average fastball was at a sizzling 95 MPH with movement. 14 months removed from TJS and feeling better than ever, Danny Duffy’s ceiling has reached new heights. This kid can pitch and against current Minnesota hitter’s he’s allowed just five hits in 24 AB (.208) and that was with a bad elbow. K.C. owns this team and we don’t see anything changing here.
Our Pick
Kansas City -114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.75)
Today's Free Picks for Aug 28, 2013
L.A. Angels @ TAMPA BAYL.A. Angels +156 over TAMPA BAY
We’ve said it over and over again in every sport that these “spoilers” are extremely dangerous. These teams that are playing out the string have nothing to lose. Wins and losses to these spoilers mean nothing, which allows them to play aggressively, not worry about mistakes and just go out there and try and make life miserable for the contenders. Every professional athlete will agree that the next best thing to being in contention is to defeat teams fighting for a playoff spot down the stretch. The Angels came in here last night and took the opener 6-5 and they have a much more favorable pitching matchup here. Chris Archer comes in with a 7-5 record and a nifty 2.93 after 16 starts. He’s also coming off a seven inning, four-hit gem against the Yankees, which has increased his stock even more. Archer flashed the second-highest average fastball velocity (94.9 mph) in July of any AL SP with at least 20 IP that month. With his top prospect upside and 0.73 ERA, 0.65 WHIP line in July, a lot of folks are going to feel comfortable backing him but we say otherwise. Keep in mind that Archer has been the beneficiary of this trifecta help in July and his last two August starts; 16% hit rate, 91% strand rate%, 2% hr/f. His base skills are league average with 32 walks and 66 K’s in 95 innings, a 45% groundball rate and just nine quality starts in 16 attempts. Archer is serviceable, no doubt but we can bank on inconsistency down the stretch and this is the perfect spot for that to occur.
Garrett Richards is back in the Angels' rotation after a four-month hiatus and has posted a 2.55 ERA in five starts since being re-inserted. He's flamed out as a starter twice in the past already so it’s hard to put much faith in such a small sample size but his skills tell us to keep riding him. Richards has made some key improvements this season. He struggled with control in 2012, which led to some disastrous starts (22%/22% quality start/disaster start). In eight total starts this year, with improved command: 90% quality start/10% disaster start. A groundball pitcher throughout his minor league career, Richards' groundball rate has spiked to extreme levels this season (65%), a sign that he's doing nice a job at keeping his heater down. Richards’ fastball has been consistently in the 95-96 MPH range. Garrett Richards is a pitcher that has paid his dues. He has some promising seeds and according to xERA, some nice room for growth. This combination of the Angels and Richards is very undervalued and absolutely worth a bet.
Our Pick
L.A. Angels +156 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.12)
Oakland @ DETROITDETROIT -1½ +121 over Oakland
Oakland belted out 14 runs over the past two days at this park and most of the damage was done against Justin Verlander and Anibal Sanchez. The A’s continue to defy logic with an average pitching staff and a below average offense, yet they continue to win games at the same rate as some of the best teams in baseball. You may have also noticed that we didn’t spot the 1½-runs the past two days with the Tigers because both Verlander and Sanchez have not been in great form. Enter Doug Fister. Pitching in the shadows of the aforementioned duo and Max Scherzer, this steady right-hander gathers wins, not headlines. While he’s not contending for a Cy Young award like Scherzer, Fister has done yeoman’s work, contributing an 11-6 record and 3.54 ERA. It’s not hard to see why Fister is thriving either. He has great control, as usual. While he doesn’t strike out a ton of batters, his command is basically unchanged the past three years. Fister’s groundball % has steadily increased over the past four years and it’s now at an elite 57% this season. While his fastball (average 88.5 mph) is nothing special, it works for him—he’s been at this level for years. A 69/15% dominant start/disaster start split is another measure of his success this year. Detroit has won seven of Fister’s last eight starts. In four of those eight games, Fister has allowed one earned run or fewer and has a great chance to do something similar here.
Dan Straily was rocked in his last start (3.1 IP, 6 ER) in Baltimore on August 23 and he faces a tougher test here against a Tigers squad in a foul mood. Straily now barely made it to the fifth inning in five of his past six outings and overall, the A’s have dropped six of his past seven starts. Over that seven game span, Straily posted a 5.04 ERA and 5.30 xERA and there are more disasters forthcoming. Straily’s control is eroding. He’s walked 14 batters over his past 25 innings and he also has a fly-ball bias profile of 36%/47% groundball/fly-ball. Straily’s WHIP over his past five starts is at 1.68. Let us also remind you that Straily made the jump last year as a rookie from Double-AA to the big leagues in August. After surviving his fly-ball profile in the minors, Straily’s first seven MLB starts had its ups and downs with two disasters. The league knew little about him then but they have caught up to him now and he’s a pitcher in trouble. Straily’s confidence is shot and these Tigers know a little about going in for the kill on a wounded prey.
Our Pick
DETROIT -1½ +121 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.42)
Kansas City @ MINNESOTAKansas City -114 over MINNESOTA
The Royals came in here last night and took the opener 6-1. K.C. has now won six of the past seven meetings against the Twins while outscoring Minnesota 52-25 over that span. The Royals are on a current 5-0 run in Minnesota this season while outscoring the Twinkies 33-16 over that span. Expect more of the same here. Southpaw Andrew Albers may be up for the rest of the season because Minnesota is running out of valid options on the farm. Albers has made four starts since being called up August 6 and comes into this one with a shiny ERA of 3.00. We’re not buying in because Albers has been aided greatly by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Fatigue might become an issue down over the last month, as Albers averaged just under 100 IP the previous 2 seasons and is already up to 162 innings this season split between the minors and majors. He’s also been whacked in back-to-back starts against the Tigers and White Sox and will face a Royals team that is fifth in the majors against lefties with a team batting average of .264. Albers’ 11 K’s in 30 innings at this level suggest that further correction in his 3.00 ERA is coming.
Put Danny Duffy high on your radar and expect to reap the rewards this season and into next. Duffy's 4.14 ERA and 1.37 WHIP in the minors this year is partly a result of being hit hard in six of his first seven outings coming off Tommy John surgery in June 2012. Duffy started the Triple-A phase of his return with 11 BB in 15.1 IP but he's improved greatly with 12 BB in his last 38 IP. Duffy then proceeded to strike out 19 batters over his final two minor league starts. In his first start this season after one relief appearance, all Duffy did was throw a six-inning, one-hitter against the Tigers. In 9.2 innings, he’s struck out 10 batters. In May of last year, we reported that Duffy’s average fastball was at a sizzling 95 MPH with movement. 14 months removed from TJS and feeling better than ever, Danny Duffy’s ceiling has reached new heights. This kid can pitch and against current Minnesota hitter’s he’s allowed just five hits in 24 AB (.208) and that was with a bad elbow. K.C. owns this team and we don’t see anything changing here.
Our Pick
Kansas City -114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.75)
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