8-30-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Ferringo:
king system:
Central Florida
Alabama -11,5 in the first half
Alabama
Baylor
Georgia
Northwestern

Not from the system
Boston College
Syracuse
Oklahoma State
Washington
NC.State
Missouri
LSU

College Football Futures:
Air Force Falcons Under 6,5 wins
Georgia Tech Yellowjackets under 8,5 wins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastmen
SMU +5.5 [Aug. 30 Fri. 5pm PDT]
UNM -3 [Aug. 31 Sat. 5pm PDT]
USM -8 [Aug. 31 Sat. 4pm PDT]
NORTHWESTERN -5.5 [Aug. 31 Sat. 7:30pm PDT]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CHI WHITE SOX at BOSTON

Play Against - Any team (BOSTON) top level team, outscoring opponents by 1 or more runs/game on the season, playing on Friday
169-142 over the last 5 seasons. ( 54.3% 68.3 units )
33-35 this year. ( 48.5% 1.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB MINNESOTA at TEXAS

MINNESOTA is 33-24 (+19.3 Units) against the money line after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span this season.

The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA INDIANA at NEW YORK

Play On - Favorites (INDIANA) revenging a loss versus opponent, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
124-68 since 1997. ( 64.6% 49.2 units )
4-1 this year. ( 80.0% 2.9 units )

WNBA INDIANA at NEW YORK

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (INDIANA) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a road loss
252-100 since 1997. ( 71.6% 0.0 units )
9-4 this year. ( 69.2% 0.0 units )

WNBA SAN ANTONIO at TULSA

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points good ball handling team (<=14.5 TO's) against a poor pressure defensive team (<=14.5 TO's)
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
12-9 this year. ( 57.1% 2.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SMU tries to end long losing skid to Texas Tech Friday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Texas Tech -5.5, Total: 59.5

A highly-entertaining offensive showcase will likely take place on Friday night when SMU hosts Texas Tech in the head coaching debut of 34-year-old Kliff Kingsbury.

The Red Raiders have tallied 14 straight wins over the Mustangs, prevailing by double-digits in all of those meetings with the exception of the most recent matchup. In that 2010 showdown, the Mustangs covered a 12.5-point spread in a 35-27 Tech home win. TTU’s high-octane offense has plenty of weapons, but starting QB Michael Brewer is doubtful with a back injury, leaving the job to one of two true freshmen, Davis Webb or walk-on Baker Mayfield. Whoever starts will need to light up the scoreboard as the Red Raiders defense allowed an average of 45.0 PPG in its final seven games last year. SMU’s defense is also suspect, with a weak secondary that will have its hands full behind an inexperienced front seven. Mustangs QB Garrett Gilbert, who went to the same Lake Travis High School (Austin, TX) as Mayfield, has talented receivers to target, and fellow Texas transfer RB Traylon Shead seems poised for a breakout season. Texas Tech is 5-2 ATS (71%) in non-Big 12 play over the past two years, while the Mustangs were 6-1 ATS (83%) at home last year and are 16-10 ATS (62%) as an underdog since 2009.

Both Webb (6-foot-4, 195 pounds) and Mayfield (6-foot-2, 220 pounds) have had an excellent camp for Texas Tech, and it's possible both signal callers could see some snaps if Brewer (7.8 YPA, 4 TD, 0 INT) can't go. Whoever is under center will likely be looking first to WR Eric Ward (1,053 rec. yds, 12 TD), then TE Jace Amaro (16.4 YPC, 4 TD) as a check-down option. However, Amaro will sit out the first half of Friday's game because of a suspension earned in last year's bowl game when he punched a Minnesota player after an on-field scuffle. Although this is a pass-heavy offense (356 passing YPG, 2nd in FBS; 140 rushing YPG, 88th in FBS), RB Kenny Williams (824 rush yds, 5 TD) is good enough to keep the SMU defense honest. Although Texas Tech allowed 31.8 PPG last year (92nd in FBS), the club gave up just 367 total YPG (38th in FBS), including a mere 192 passing YPG (15th in nation). The big problem was that the Red Raiders forced only 11 turnovers in their 13 games last season. Defensive coordinator Matt Wallerstedt will switch to a 3-4 that promises to blitz more off the edge. Although eight defensive starters return, the secondary still needs more experience.

SMU lost half of its starters from last year, but senior QB Garrett Gilbert (2,932 pass yds, 15 TD, 15 INT) is back, and became more comfortable with the run-and-shoot last year. The former Texas Longhorns quarterback who played in the 2010 national championship as a freshman, throwing for 186 yards, 2 TD and 4 INT in that loss to Alabama, faced the Red Raiders the following season. Gilbert led the 'Horns to a 24-14 road win that day, completing 21-of-36 passes for 227 yards, 2 TD and 3 INT. Gilbert once again has a pair of sure-handed receivers to feed in Jeremy Johnson (679 rec. yds, 3 TD) and Der’Rikk Thompson (535 rec. yds, 4 TD). Gone is top RB Zach Line and his 1,500 total yards and 13 TD from last year, but Texas transfer RB Traylon Shead had a huge spring and will likely carry Line's huge workload this year. SMU needs its pass defense (278 YPG, 113th in FBS) to improve greatly, as most of the front seven is gone. LBs Randall Joyner (93 tackles) and Stephon Sanders (5 PD) remain in the middle though. This was quite an opportunistic unit in 2012 though, generating the second-most takeaways in the nation (2.9 per game).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CFL

Week 10

Hamilton (4-4) @ BCLions (5-3)—BC swept series LY 39-36 (-8)/37-17 (-1.5), after being 2-5 in previous seven series games; TiCats won three of last four visits here, covering all four in series where underdog is 7-2 vs spread in last nine meetings, with last four played here going over total. Hamilton cleaned up on Eskimos/Bombers to win last three games and even record; they’re 0-3 when scoring less than 25 points, losing those games by 10-37-12 points. TiCats covered last three games, but are 1-3 as an underdog. Lions somehow lost in Montreal last week despite being +6 in turnovers in game they led 21-7 at half; they’re 4-0 at home, 3-1 as home favorites, winning by 8-10-7-4 points. BC allowed 44-38-39 points in its losses, an average of 16.4 in wins. Five of last seven TiCat games, three of four BC home games stayed under the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mitch Wilson

Dog of the day: Western Michigan +28

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Paul Leiner

100* SMU +5.5

50* Yankees -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast

Underdog POW - SMU +6

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JOE WIZ

North Dakota State +14 over Kansas State

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bookiemonsters
140-88 run

16-5-1 run last 22 plays

pod white sox game under 9.5

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Paul Leiner

100* SMU +5.5

50* Yankees -130

1000* MLB Rays -125

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EAGLE EYE--Randy Rose
5* Mich St-28
5* Balt.Orioles+125

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SamsWins

CFB
Game: Texas Tech @ SMU
Pick: SMU +4.5 (-110)
5 Units
SMU head coach June Jones has gone 6-1 ATS in his last seven games as a home underdog. That includes a 3-1 ATS home dog mark last season. SMU is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games. Texas Tech is going with a completely new system under rookie coach Kliff Kingsbury. Kingsbury is one of the youngest coaches in college football. This is his first game and it is on the road. SMU will be motivated to knock off a Big 12 team.

MLB
Game: Cleveland @ Detroit
Pick: Cleveland (+135)
5 Units

0-3 yesterday.

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The Factsman

MLB Friday Video Pick

Cincinnati Reds
(B. Arroyo -R vs J. Manship -R)