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TEXAS TECH (153) AT SMU (154)
Latest Line: SMU +5.5; Total: 59.5
I'm going to grab the points here and back the home 'dog Mustangs. Texas Tech starting QB Michael Brewer looks to be sitting this game out with a bad back, leaving the team with a pair of true freshman signal callers to choose from. Also, the Red Raiders are replacing pretty much all of their defensive backs. SMU should score in bunches and if that happens, the team was 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when scoring 28 or more points last season. SMU win this game in a Hammertime rout!
PLAY ON: SMU +5.5
Game: Los Angeles Angels at Milwaukee (8:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Milwaukee +115 (moneyline) at Bookmaker
For the second straight season the potential of the LA Angels, considered to be a playoffs caliber team, has fallen short. The Angels will send their ace Jered Weaver to the mound for this one. Weaver has no doubt been one of the top pitchers in baseball in recent years, but there is a wide spread of what he has accomplished at home vs. on the road. Weaver is 81-31 at home, but a pedestrian 61-56 on the road, and just .500 the last seven seasons. He is also under .500 this year. The Angels have struggled as an interleague favorite as they carry the baggage of a 2-6 mark in their last eight into this contest. The Brewers have dominated weaker teams at home where they are a stunning 87-42 in their last 129 against them. The value goes to the home dog here, so play on Milwaukee.
The college football kickoff continues with a smattering of games Friday. We talk with online book Bet365.com about the biggest line moves on the board.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at SMU Mustangs – Open: +6, Move: +4
Action on the home side has moved this Lone Star State showdown as many as two points off the opening spread, with Texas Tech starting a redshirt freshman at quarterback due to an injury to No. 1 Michael Brewer. But that’s not the only thing pushing this line.
“Line moved for team news on TTU, but sharp money is on SMU as a live dog regardless of the info,” Aron Black of Bet365.com told Covers.
The total for this game has moved, jumping from 58.5 to 59.5 points.
Money on FAU is trimming this massive spread. Miami doesn’t enter this season as a notable favorite to win the ACC, and that shows with just 56 percent of Covers Consensus backing the Hurricanes in Week 1. The Owls are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans – Open: -26.5, Move: -28
Michigan State money has constantly flowed in on the favorite, knocking this spread up 1.5 points. The Spartans will hand the ball to QB Andrew Maxwell but will likely mix in sophomore Connor Cook in Week 1.
“This one just looks like natural move to strong favorite,” says Black. “No real recent updates to indicate anything more than money on Michigan State.”
College football betting weather report: Friday's forecasts
Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Friday's matchups:
Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-28, 45)
Forecasts in East Lansing are calling for a 42 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing from sideline to sideline at 6 mph.
Florida Atlantic Owls at Miami (FL) Hurricanes (-31, 54)
There is a 20 percent chance of rain in Miami. Wind will blow SSE at 6 mph.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at SMU Mustangs (+4, 60.5)
It looks to be a hot one in Dallas for this matchup. Temperatures will be in the low-100s and skies will be clear and sunny over Gerald J. Ford Stadium.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks vs. Arizona Wildcats (-34.5)
The forecast in Tucson is calling for a 48 percent chance of thunderstorms for this game.
Larry Ness' Club-80 Play-CFB (86% ATS s/2009)-Fri
My 9* Club-80 Play is on SMU at 8:00 ET.
Texas Tech has won the last 14 meetings with SMU but I’m calling for the Mustangs to come away with a SU win over the Red Raiders on Friday night. Tommy Tuberville left Lubbock for Cincinnati prior to the team's 34-31 Meineke Car Care Bowl win over Minnesota and the Red Raiders turned to Kliff Kingsbury, giving the former Texas Tech star QB his first head coaching job. Kingsbury has served as co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at both Houston and Texas A&M the last four years. He has mentored Case Keenum at Houston and was instrumental in helping Texas A&M's Johnny Manziel win the 2012 Heisman Trophy.
On the other sideline of this game will be SMU’s June Jones. Jones owns the kind of coaching ‘chops’ that Kingsbury can only dream of producing. He spent nine years at Hawaii, leading the Rainbow Warriors to SIX, nine-win (or better) seasons and SIX bowl berths, including the 2007 Sugar Bowl (after a 12-0 regular season). Jones moved on to SMU in 2008 and many asked why? SMU was given the “Death Penalty” in the mid-80s and after the school’s return to the field in 1989, the Mustangs produced just ONE winning season prior to Jones’ arrival.
Jones had no luck in his first year at Dallas, as SMU finished 1-11,. However, Jones has led the Mustangs to FOUR straight bowls from 2009-12, winning THREE of the four. SMU owns a HUGE edge of the coaching sidelines in this one and also one at the position of QB. Kingsbury will not have a Keenum or Manziel to work with in 2013. Sophomore Michael Brewer was (is) expected to replace Seth Dodge (70.2% / 4,205 yards / 39 TDs & 16 INTs) but a recent back injury will keep him out of this game. Both of Brewer’s back-ups are true freshmen.
In comparison, Jones owns a veteran QB in Garrett Gilbert. Here’s a guy who was a blue chip prospect coming into college at Texas but never “fit in.” He transferred to SMU. He struggled to assimilate June Jones’ offense but he settled down as the season wore on. Gilbert was intercepted only twice in his last six starts, as the Mustangs won FOUR of their last six regular season games to earn a bowl bid at 6-6. He then led the Mustangs to a 43-10 win over Fresno St in the Hawaii Bowl. Jones hired his old friend Hal Mumme to add elements of the Air Raid to the Run & Shoot and note that this will be Gilbert’s 28th career start at QB.
SMU is 6-1 ATS (86%) as a home dog since Jones arrived in 2009 and I say make it 7-1 ATS after Friday’s game, as the Mustangs end that 14-game losing streak to the Red Raiders.
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