8-30-13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

FRIDAY, AUGUST 30 Time Posted: 2:00 p.m. EST (8/23)

Game 149-150: Western Michigan at Michigan State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Michigan 77.866; Michigan State 97.121 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 19 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 27 1/2; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Michigan (+27 1/2); Over

Game 151-152: Florida Atlantic at Miami (FL) (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 64.085; Miami (FL) 99.430 Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 35 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 32 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (-32 1/2); Under

Game 153-154: Texas Tech at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 90.967; SMU 81.675 Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 9 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 5 1/2; 59 Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-5 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (8/26)

Game 319-320: Samford at Georgia State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Samford 60.429; Georgia State 55.451 Dunkel Line: Samford by 5 Vegas Line: Samford by 7 Dunkel Pick: Georgia State (+7)

Game 321-322: Morgan State at Army (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Morgan State 37.295; Army 66.675 Dunkel Line: Army by 29 1/2 Vegas Line: Army by 32 Dunkel Pick: Morgan State (+32)

Game 323-324: Southern at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern 40.702; Houston 84.138 Dunkel Line: Houston by 43 1/2 Vegas Line: Houston by 40 Dunkel Pick: Houston (-40)

Game 325-326: North Dakota State at Kansas State (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 90.697; Kansas State 107.482 Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 17 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 14 Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-14)

Game 327-328: Northern Arizona at Arizona (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Arizona 65.394; Arizona 93.741 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 28 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona by 35 Dunkel Pick: Northern Arizona (+35)

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Today's CFL Picks

Hamilton at BC

The Lions look to bounce back from their 39-38 loss to Montreal last week and build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games following a SU defeat. BC is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Lions favored by 12. Dunkel Pick: BC (-6). Here are all of this week's CFL picks.

FRIDAY, AUGUST 30 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST (8/27)

Game 231-232: Hamilton at BC (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 106.659; BC 118.827 Dunkel Line: BC by 12; 58 Vegas Line: BC by 6; 53 Dunkel Pick: BC (-6); Over

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NCAAF

Week 1

Friday's games
Michigan State won its last four games (3-1 vs spread) with Western Michigan, with three of four wins by 24+ points; last meeting was in 2010. Spartans were 0-6 as home favorites LY, are 20-30-1 in that role over last decade- they do have senior QB (13 starts) and four starters back on OL. Broncos are 8-13-1 as road dogs since ’08, 9-13-1 out of conference since ’07; they lost four starters on OL and have senior QB who has only eight career starts.

This will be Florida Atlantic’s Super Bowl, getting to play Miami week before ‘canes play Florida; teams haven’t met. Owls were 8-2 as dogs LY, after being 13-28-2 as road dogs from ’05-’11. Its certainly a road game but not a road trip for FAU, which has a new QB and three new starters on OL. Miami has senior QB (17 starts) and all five starters back on OL, so they’re looking for big things this year. ‘canes 5-5 as home favorites under Golden, 20-34 if you go back to ’03- they’re 5-8 vs spread in last 13 non-league games.

Texas Tech won last seven games with SMU, with six wins by 14+ points, but teams haven’t met since ’07; first game as Tech coach for former NFL QB Kingsbury, whose Red Raiders are 11-3-1 as road favorites since ’07, 8-4 out of conference since ’10. Mustangs have senior (25 starts) QB but three new starters on OL; they’ve covered six of last seven tries as home dog, with home side covering 12 times in last 16 games where SMU was an underdog. SMU is 11-8 in last 19 non-league games. Tech has new coach, new QB, three new starters on OL; road opener has to be at least a little dicey.

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RAS

Virginia +3
S Mississippi -7
New Mexico -3

Marshall/Miami Ohio Under 69
Washington St/ Auburn Over 60
Northwestern/Cal Over 57.5
Texas St/S Mississippi Under 56.5
UL Lafayette/Arkansas Under 59
Idaho/North Texas Over 56

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BookiesHunter

55-27 run

1* Texas Tech -4.5

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CKO

FLORIDA-ATLANTIC (+32) at Miami-Florida

”Huge” game for the Owls in their first meeting with the Hurricanes; Miami’s“huge” game is next week vs. the Gators.

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The Gold Sheet

*MICHIGAN ST. 34 - Western Michigan 17
*MIAMI-FLORIDA 39
SMU 35 - Texas Tech 34

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Power Sweep

2* Florida Atlantic (+) over MIAMI, FL
First meeting between these two schools whose campuses are only 47 miles apart. Miami is 24-3 SU/12-6-1 ATS in home openers while FAU is 3-6 ATS in road openers. The Canes were 5-1 ATS at home LY and have 18 ret st’rs and much better depth. FAU is in the 2nd year under Pelini and has 15 ret st’rs. They were 6-1 ATS as an AD LY including covers against #7 Georgia and #1 Alabama as a large dog. Miami does have a huge game on deck vs Florida and don’t draw very well at home in non-marquee matchups. This is UM’s best team in recent memory, however they have not been this large of a favorite over a FBS schl s/’07. Expect FAU to play w/a chip on their shoulders as many of their players were passed over by the bigger Fla schls while UM will be caught looking ahead to next week.

FORECAST: Florida Atlantic (+) MIAMI, FL by 21

2* SMU over Texas Tech -

SMU has dropped 14 straight in this series (6-8 ATS). This is the 6th time TT has been their ssn opener in the L11Y. In the last mtg (‘10) SMU trailed 34-14 then cut it to 8 (-13’) getting to the 50 on their final drive. TT has won their last 3 road openers by 43 ppg while SMU has won their L/5 home openers (2-3 ATS). Both tms have FCS teams on deck and TT returns 13 st’rs while SMU has just 11. Both teams run pass happy offenses and TT has a new HC Kingsbury who is the school’s #2 career pass leader. SMU is 6-1 ATS as a HD the L/4 yrs incl 3 outright upsets and we’ll call for them to get another here.

FORECAST: SMU by 1

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Power Plays

2★ WESTERN MICHIGAN 12 (+) MICHIGAN ST 32

4★ FLORIDA ATLANTIC 15 (+) MIAMI, FL 44

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Winning Points

SMU * over Texas Tech by 9
(Friday)
The Tommy Tuberville era at Texas Tech ended with a whimper. The Red Raiders
finished his tenure on an 0-5 ATS skid. (Tuberville left before the bowl game, a
narrow victory over Minnesota.) Enter 34-year old Kliff Kingsbury whose first
order of business was finding a replacement for Seth Doege, a multi-year starter
who completed 69 percent of his throws. The search was complicated when heir-
apparent Michael Brewer was shelved with a back ailment. At last glance, both of
Brewer’s back-ups were true freshmen. SMU QB Garrett Gilbert struggled to
assimilate June Jones’ offense after transferring in from Texas, but he settled down
as the season wore on. Gilbert was intercepted only twice in his last six starts as the
Mustangs advanced to 6-6 with an upset of Tulsa and then secured a winning sea-
son with a smashing upset of Fresno State. This will be Gilbert’s 28th career start
and he looks poised for a strong season. The Mustangs aren’t likely to be as oppor-
tunistic as last year when they had 37 takeaways, but enter the season on more sta-
ble footing than the club from Lubbock. SMU 33-24

Michigan State* over Western Michigan by 31
(Friday)
Michigan State has to replace Le’Veon Bell (his 382 carries led the nation) and the
QB picture is murky. However, the Broncos are a team in transition and C.J. Fleck
– the youngest head coach in D-1 – is as big a question mark as his unseasoned
offensive line. MICHIGAN STATE 41-10.



Miami Florida* over Florida Atlantic by 29
(Friday)

Whoever starts at QB for FAU – the position was wide-open heading into the final
week of practice – will be taking his first snap in a D-1 game. That’s a red flag, but
this isn’t the best spot for Miami which renews acquaintances with Florida next
week. MIAMI 42-13

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Playbook

SMU over Texas Tech by 6

After coaching Heisman winner Johnny Manziel last year, Kliff
Kingsbury returns to his alma mater and makes his head coaching
debut with the Red Raiders, taking on the fi rst of nine bowl squads
this season, when his troops tackle SMU. But it’s a rather ominous
place to start considering the Raiders are a dismal 2-15 SU and 5-12
ATS in road openers when facing a foe that won 7 or more games
the previous season. In addition, they fi nished 2012 by going 0-6 ATS
the fi nal six games of the campaign, emptying enough wallets to send
Tommy Tuberville skeedaddling to Cincinnati. Meanwhile in Dallas,
a 4-2 turnaround down the stretch of the regular season followed a
lethargic 2-4 start and saved the season for June Jones, landing the
Mustangs in a bowl for the fourth straight year (they crushed Fresno
State 43-10 in the Hawaii Bowl, familiar surroundings for the former
Rainbow Warriors coach). Jones has been a reliable underdog at home
in his college head coaching career, going 22-11 ATS, and his Ponies
are 4-0 ATS in regular season weekday games. We also see the Red
Raiders stumbling out of the gate, thanks to this revealing stat from
our powerful PLAYBOOK database: 1st-year head coaches are just 53-
71-6 ATS away in their opening games since 1990 (FYI: 20 of them were
favored and only 6 managed to bring home the bacon). No Johnny
Football sightings – or autograph signings – here! The Clincher: Jones
is 14-2 ATS as a home underdog when getting a TD or less

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Deutsche Bank Championship Golf Betting Preview & Picks
by Matt Fargo

The Deutsche Bank Championship takes center stage from TPC Boston in Norton, Massachusetts on this holiday weekend event that runs from Friday to Monday.

TPC Boston has been one of the easier stops in recent years and it won’t be any different this week. The 7,216-yard, Par-71 layout is fairly wide open but it’s the large greens that contribute to the low scores. Ideal weather conditions will only help. TPC Boston ranked 31st in difficulty with a scoring average of 70.647 last year and it was the fourth-easiest Par 71 on tour. Rory McIlroy, the 2012 winner, finished at 20-under and 50 of the 78 players making the cut were able to break par over the four days.

Since its inception in 2003, every winner here has carded a 14-under or lower with four of those resulting in 20-under or lower. Basically, this is a birdie paradise so it comes down to the best ball strikers and what putters are hot.

Round 1 of the FedEx Cup Playoffs is history as Adam Scott carded a final-round 66 to win by one shot over Tiger Woods, Graham DeLaet, Justin Rose and Gary Woodland to take the Barclays.

Scott moved to second in the FedEx Cup standings, trailing Tiger Woods by just 162 points. It was Scott's second win of the season and his third Top 5 in his last four starts. The field has been cut to the Top 100 for the second leg of the playoffs taking place this week.

The top 70 will advance to the third round of the playoffs which take place at the BMW Championship in two weeks. Current strong form is typically a big factor when looking for a winner, although past course success and good iron play also needs to be factored in. There are no tricks here, just a course ripe for the taking.

Tiger Woods (+650) is the favorite but his back has to be a concern. It was just a spasm that affected him last Sunday but it forced him to withdraw from the Notah Begay charity event Wednesday. While the Friday start will certainly help, there’s too much concern and not enough value to consider him this week.

Jason Day (+1,800) opened with a Thursday 66 at the Barclays but played the rest of the tournament at 3-over to never make a move. Still, it was his ninth Top 25 of the season and he has yet to miss a cut in 17 medal-play events, so he won't be leaving come Sunday. He seems to be in contention in the big events and that has been the case here with a T3 in 2011 and a T2 in 2010.

Webb Simpson (+2,500) made an early tournament run for us last week but a Saturday 74 took him out of contention and he had to settle for a T15. He’s been on a solid streak though, posting four straight Top 25s and he’s tied for 20th on tour in birdies made. He won this event in 2011 in a playoff over Chez Reavie and followed it up with a T18 last year.

Keegan Bradley (+3,000) will round out the three players on this week's card that we also took last week. A Friday 63 put him right in the mix at the Barclays but a 4-over weekend left him with a T33 finish. Now, he heads back home to New England where he will be a crowd favorite. He has not missed a cut in six straight stops with four resulting in Top 20s, including a T2. He finished T13 here last year.

Brandt Snedeker (+3,000) has fallen off the radar with two straight missed cuts following a T66 at the PGA Championship. This goes against the strong current form theory. However, if there’s a place where he can break his slump, TPC Boston is it. Last year, he finished solo sixth, 2011 finished T3 and 2010 finished T5. He’s considered one of the best putters on tour and if he gets hot, he will be right there.

With many big names playing, bettors get a ton of value with the other guys including Graeme DeLaet (+6,000). He’s coming off a T2 at the Barclays which came after two missed cuts, so he could be getting hot at the right time. That was his sixth Top 10 of the season and, while he missed the cut here last year, he’s a much better player this year. His rankings of first in total driving and first in ball striking proves that.

Recommended tournament win five pack at the Deutsche Bank Championship
(All for one unit)

Jason Day (+1,800)

Webb Simpson (+2,500)

Keegan Bradley (+3,000)

Brandt Snedeker (+3,000)

Graeme DeLaet (+6,000)

2012 Record to date after 36 events: +51.6 Units
2013 Record to date after 32 events: -45.4 Units

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Steve Golf Picks

Deutsche Bank Championship

Luke Donald
Charley Hoffman
Jason Day
Jordan Speith
Brandt Snedker
Jim Furyk

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Friday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan State Spartans (-28, 44.5)

Michigan State’s offensive identity remains a mystery heading into its season opener on Friday against visiting Western Michigan, which was picked to finish fifth in the MAC’s West Division. Fortunately for the Spartans, their vaunted defense again should rank among the nation’s best this season. Even with an offense that’s a work in progress, Michigan State figures to be a difficult matchup for the Broncos and 32-year-old first-year head coach P.J. Fleck.

Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio held an open competition at quarterback before finally naming senior Andrew Maxwell as his starter on Tuesday, but sophomore Connor Cook also is expected to play in the season opener. Thanks to a forgiving early-season schedule, Michigan State has some time to figure out its offense before visiting Notre Dame on Sept. 21. The Spartans should be able to rely on their defense to get past Western Michigan, which faces three Big Ten teams in the first four weeks.

Key betting stat: Broncos are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. Big Ten.

Florida Atlantic Owls at Miami Hurricanes (-31.5, 53.5)

With expectations on the rise, Miami looks to begin its season in impressive fashion when Florida Atlantic visits on Friday night. Al Golden, starting his third season as the Hurricanes’ coach, admitted this week that he has “a lot of concerns” about his team, even though Miami is the preseason favorite to win the ACC Coastal Division. Those concerns do not include senior quarterback Stephen Morris, who is coming off a terrific 2012 season.

Morris passed for 3,345 yards last year – the fifth-highest single-season total in Hurricanes history. In his final four games, Morris completed 60 percent of his passes for 1,131 yards with 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. In addition to Morris, Florida Atlantic will have its hands full with Duke Johnson, Miami’s electrifying running back who racked up 2,060 all-purpose yards as a freshman last season.

Key betting stat: Under is 42-19-1 in Hurricanes' last 62 home games.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at SMU Mustangs (+4, 59.5)

Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury won’t be alone in making his debut in a high-profile role Friday at SMU. The Red Raiders are expected to rotate freshmen quarterbacks Davis Webb and Baker Mayfield as projected starter Michael Brewer is battling a back injury. Kingsbury, who guided Johnny Manziel to the Heisman Trophy as the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M last season, turned 34 earlier this month but remains the second-youngest active head coach in college football.

SMU will have an experienced quarterback operating its pass-heavy offense. Garrett Gilbert spent parts of three seasons at Texas - starting every game in 2010 - and is pegged to lead the Mustangs for a second straight year. Cutting down on turnovers will be key as Gilbert helps transition SMU into the newly formed American Athletic Conference. He committed five turnovers after taking over for injured starter Colt McCoy in the loss to Alabama in the 2010 BCS title game, was intercepted 17 times as the starter the following year and picked off 15 times last season.

Key betting stat: Mustangs are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 vs. Big 12.

North Dakota State Bison at Kansas State Wildcats (-13)

Kansas State briefly flirted with an undefeated season and a spot in the BCS Championship Game last season behind quarterback and Heisman Trophy finalist Collin Klein before settling for the Big 12 title. Klein is gone, along with most of the defensive front seven, giving the Wildcats a new look when they begin the 2013 campaign by hosting North Dakota State on Friday. The Football Championship Series power is trying to knock off an FBS school for the fourth straight season.

The Bison have claimed back-to-back FCS Championships and won at Kansas in 2010, versus Minnesota in 2011 and at Colorado State in 2012. The experienced squad takes on a Kansas State team that is going into the season unranked despite a BCS Bowl appearance in January. The Wildcats still are trying to settle on a starting quarterback as Jake Waters and Daniel Sams battle for the position.

Key betting stat: Over is 9-1 in Wildcats' last 10 home games.

Southern Jaguars at Houston Cougars (-40)

The Houston Cougars begin what they hope will be a bounceback season in the new American Athletic Conference when they host Southern University in the opener for both teams Friday at Reliant Stadium. After a 13-1 record and a TicketCity Bowl win in 2011, Houston stumbled to a 5-7 mark last year in head coach Tony Levine's first full season. However, the Cougars return 10 starters from an offense that averaged 32.4 points.

Junior quarterback David Piland is back for a third year under center after producing 2,929 passing yards and 16 touchdowns last season, the program's last in Robertson Stadium. He will lead a squad that will play its home games at three different locations before moving into a new stadium in 2014. Southern, which has not had a winning campaign since 2009, is entering its first full season under head coach Dawson Odums, who served on an interim basis for the final nine games in 2012.

Key betting stat: Over is 6-2 in Cougars' last eight Friday games.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona Wildcats (-34.5)

A pair of running backs will be in the spotlight when Arizona hosts Northern Arizona on Friday. Arizona junior Ka'Deem Carey led the nation in rushing yards (1,929) in 2012 and Northern Arizona senior Zach Bauman, a 2013 nominee on the Walter Payton Award watch list, is coming off his third consecutive 1,000-yard season. The Wildcats and Lumberjacks last met in 2011, with the Wildcats scoring an easy 41-10 victory in coach Rich Rodriguez's Arizona debut.

Both teams are replacing their starting quarterbacks. Cary Grossart, a two-year starter for Northern Arizona, leaves as the school's all-time leader in completion percentage (66.3). Arizona is in the process of finding a successor to Matt Scott, who ranked second in the Pac-12 in completions (301) and passing yards (3,620) last season.

Key betting stat: Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last six Friday games.