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Play Against - Road teams (DETROIT) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
314-184 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.1% 94.2 units )
63-44 this year. ( 58.9% 9.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets
MLB BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
BALTIMORE is 37-22 (+26.7 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (5.3) , OPPONENT (4.5)
Football frenzy gives extra value to MLB odds
By JASON LOGAN
In the world of sports, football is king. That’s never more evident than in sports betting, where the market switches from baseball to football in the blink of an eye.
Not only are bettors shifting their focus to the new college and NFL schedules, but oddsmakers are also spending more of their time fine tuning the football lines each weekend and less time worrying about the MLB numbers. That makes football season one of the best times to bet baseball.
“The bookmakers focus on football Sundays, getting their numbers ready for the Sunday night openers. MLB lines come out the day before the game, so it's not unusual to see some relatively soft opening lines for Monday's games when they get posted on Sunday,” says professional handicapper Teddy Covers. “The bookmakers’ attention is clearly focused elsewhere.”
And it’s not just the lack of attention that makes MLB moneylines soft come football season. Those who were scratching their betting itch with baseball all summer are no longer wagering on MLB odds, leaving the baseball board “slow and sluggish in September because of bettor indifference more than bookmaker indifference,” notes Teddy Covers.
“I don't know many bettors - in fact, I only know one guy - who focus on MLB exclusively in September, eschewing the football workload,” he says.
According to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, MLB betting sees between a 15 and 20 percent decrease once football starts in September. The action picks back up come October, once the playoffs start, but baseball is third fiddle in the fall.
As for where diligent MLB bettors can find the softest lines, Teddy Covers says poor teams putting up a fight down the stretch don’t see the immediate adjustment that they would in the middle of the summer. Most MLB odds are computer driven and a season’s worth of data, as well as a thinning MLB market, won’t suck the value out of these unexpected runs as soon.
US Open betting: Berdych vs. Wawrinka headlines Day 9
By JAYPRIMETOWN
After the major upset of Aggie Radwanska and Roger Federer on consecutive days, which major player will be upset on Day 9 of the US Open?
Vika Azarenka vs. Ana Ivanovic: A fantastic matchup to open the day as No. 2 seed Vika Azarenka takes on former world No. 1 Ana Ivanovic. The two players met earlier this summer in California with Azarenka winning a three-set match. Azarenka struggled in her previous match losing the first set to Alize Cornet. Ivanovic also was taken into deep waters in her prior match against American Christina McHale. Expect both players to have some issues on serve, but ultimately Azarenka will be tough for the Serbian.
Tomas Berdych vs. Stan Wawrinka: An excellent Round of 16 matchup sees world No. 5 Tomas Berdych take on world No. 10 Stan Wawrinka. Berdych, a semifinalist in 2012, has been on a roll this tournament having yet to concede a set. Wawrinka has played very well himself coming off a four-set victory over the always resilient Marcos Baghdatis. These two players have played 11 times previously; Wawrinka holds a 6-5 lead head-to-head. This should be a great match and likely the match of the day in Flushing Meadows, NY.
10* Play Toronto -4.5 over Montreal (TOP NCAA PLAY) 7:30 PM EST
Montreal has lost 9 of the last 10 road games against the spread coming off a non-conference game and they have also lost 11 of the last 14 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games.
Oakland has won 55 of the last 86 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and they have also won 66 of the last 114 games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs. Oakland has won 93 of the last 149 home games and they have won 89 of the last 141 games when pitching in the 2nd half of the season.
10* Play Tampa Bay -120 over Los Angeles Angels MLB TOP PLAY
Matt Moore has won 9 of the last 11 road games and he has won 13 of the last 15 night games. Matt Moore has won 11 of the last 13 games when the line posted is between -100 to -150 and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 3.38.
5* Play Atlanta -200 over New York Mets MLB TOP PLAY 5* Play Cincinnati -150 over St. Louis MLB TOP PLAY
100* Play Toronto -4.5 over Montreal (CFL TOP PLAY)
Toronto has covered the spread in 8 of the last 11 games coming off a home loss and they have also covered the spread in 3 consecutive games vs. division opponents. Toronto has won two of the last three games vs. Montreal and they are averaging over 30 points a game on offense this season.
This is seemingly a tough game to call because there are so many injuries to the Als and the Argos are without their starting QB, Ricky Ray. Both teams have had extra time to prepare and the Als are coming off a huge upset win over B.C. while the Argos are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the Stamps. A Montreal letdown is quite possible and so is an Argonauts rebound but we can’t feel comfortable spotting points with an Argonauts team that lost 35-14 without Ray last week against a Calgary team that was just as banged up as this Alouettes’ team is this week. Instead of Ray against Anthony Calvillo, it’ll be backups Tanner Marsh for the Als against Zach Collaros of the Argos. Both offenses lose experienced starters but their young replacements certainly bring a different dynamic to the table. Collaros and Marsh are very athletic and more than capable of using their arms and legs to make big plays downfield. It’s a wild guess to try and predict which rookie QB will be better this week but here’s what we like about Montreal: Since making a coaching change to a more familiar offense, Montreal has looked a whole lot sharper and they’re also playing with a more positive attitude. It may also surprise you to learn that Montreal’s defense is ranked second in fewest yards allowed (316.1 per game) and sacks (27) and tied for third in most interceptions (eight). The Als are playing an aggressive brand of defense and you know for sure they are going apply the heat against Colloros. Montreal has played tough in three of the past four weeks and it sure doesn’t hurt that the Als get some healthy bodies back this week in RB Brandon Whitaker and tackles Josh Bourke and Michael Ola. The Argos three losses have come against Saskatchewan, B.C. and Calgary. The Double Blue has feasted on the weaker teams from the East and one of those wins came against Montreal by a 38-13 count. Certainly, the Argos could continue to feast but we can’t recommend spotting points with a rookie QB against a team on the rise that’s looking better each week. Losing Anthony Calvillo could be a blessing in disguise for Montreal while the same can’t be said for the Argos losing Ray. With that, we’ll take the points because this is an underrated Montreal defense that could really dictate the outcome.
Our Pick
Montreal +5 -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
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