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Today's Free Picks for Sep 03, 2013
Seattle @ KANSAS CITY
Seattle +149 over KANSAS CITY
One cannot predict the outcome of a sporting event. You can look at all the breakdowns and numbers until you’re blue in the face but there are simply too many intangibles that impact the outcome that no crystal ball in the world could foresee and it’s for that reason we stress playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. A case in point is Bruce Chen. Fading him has value. Chen may go out and throw a gem today but this guy should not be this price over any team not named Houston or Miami. Chen hasn’t suddenly discovered something new. He’s a 36-year-old career swingman that has a career ERA of 4.49 over 1442 career innings. The Royals have dropped three of Chen’s last four starts. He was whacked by both Detroit and Washington over that span and he’s been whacked by a few others also. When Chen joined the rotation he had an ERA of 1.93 working primarily in relief but as a starter his ERA is 4.42. Chen’s margin of error is as thin as it’s always been and that’s because of a heavy fly-ball bias that is at a career low 25%/50% groundball/fly-ball rate. Advanced age, tons of fly balls, struggles against lefties and 77 career wins in 212 starts and 167 relief appearances are all reasons to bet against Chen at this price. Erasmo Ramirez was on a lot of sleeper lists coming into the season but has made only eight MLB starts, after getting injured in spring training and missing a significant amount of time. Five of his eight starts have been pure quality and although he has a 5.18 ERA, his xERA is more than a full run lower at 4.07. If you just look at his skills, 4.07 xERA, 14/42 BB/K’s in 49 frames and a 46%/20%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile, it reveals his definite upside. Ramirez was one of the AL's most skilled starters in August and last year in September, he thrived with 27 IP, 7 ER, 5 BB/21 K. It appears that his arm is rounding into shape after an early triceps problem and should provide some nice value or profit potential in September. That applies here.
Our Pick
Seattle +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)
Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEES
Chicago +133 over N.Y. YANKEES
Hiroki Kuroda has averaged over 200+ innings over the past three seasons and this year his inning count is up to 171. For a 38-year-old Korean League import, we may be seeing the signs of all that wear and tear. Since the All-Star break, Kuroda has allowed 57 hits in 52.2 innings for a BAA of .281. Over Kuroda’s last three starts, he’s been tagged for 29 hits in 16.2 innings for a BAA of .372. The Yankees have lost Kuroda’s last three starts by scores of 6-1, 7-2 and 7-2. Kuroda has been terrific all year at Yankee Stadium and perhaps he comes up stellar again here. However, the signs of fatigue are there and even if Kuroda comes up with a strong performance, it doesn’t mean he’ll win because Chris Sale is capable of shutting down anyone. Sale gained 3.3 mph on his four-seam fastball between July and August, by far the largest increase in MLB. Sale’s base skills in August were much better than his 3.95 ERA suggests. In August he averaged 9.1 K’s per nine innings and just 1.7 walks. A 33% hit rate and 17% hr/f inflated his ERA. Both those numbers are on the extreme side of misfortune. Overall, Sale has 193 K’s and just 39 walks issued in 180 innings. He has sick stuff that can make hitter’s look silly and over his past six starts, he has a league-low 13% line-drive rate. Sale is showing no signs of a late-season fade and is absolutely one of the best pitchers in the league to take back a tag with. With 20 quality starts in 25 attempts this season, of course Sale and the South Side can get us to the cashier’s booth here.
Our Pick
Chicago +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)
L.A. ANGELS @ Tampa Bay
L.A. ANGELS +125 over Tampa Bay
Hot team plus a price gets the call here over the suddenly slumping Rays. Tampa has dropped five in a row and eight of its past nine games. Over their last five games, the Rays have scored seven runs and they dropped the opener here last night, 11-2. Matt Moore comes off the DL after missing a month with soreness in his left elbow and there are plenty of lingering issues surrounding him. Moore had the perfect storm of wildness and hit%/strand% sabotage him in June (44% hit %, 58% strand %). Overall, Moore has the lowest skills of any starting pitcher in the majors the third time he goes through lineups. He can't find the plate late in games. In fact, his walk rate per 9 innings from the first to the third times through lineups is 2.4, 5.8, 7.2. His walk rate is definitely problematic and with this being his first start back since being off a month, it could rear its ugly head earlier than usual. Moore also has a fly-ball bias profile and while his strikeout rate remains near elite, it is the only thing preventing him from being one of the least skilled pitchers in the game. Everything else, including health says to be very cautious when backing Moore because he can lose it quicker than anyone. Overall, the Rays are under .500 this season against lefties on the road and they’ll face one here in Jason Vargas. We’ll get back to Vargas in a minute. The Halos are the hottest team in the majors with nine wins in 10 games and over that span they’ve outscored they opposition, 50-20. Amazing what happens when under-achieving teams’ take the field with no pressure on them. Vargas has made barely noticeable steps in the right direction: Shut down LHBs in second half last year and his groundball % is creeping upwards while his other skills remain stable. Vargas always seems to give the Angels a chance to win, as his five losses in 18 starts will attest to. He comes in with a respectable 3.54 ERA and 18 K’s over his past 23 innings. Vargas cannot be recommended as a favorite but as a pooch throwing for the hottest team in the majors, he and the Angels offer up nothing but value here.
Our Pick
L.A. ANGELS +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Texas @ OAKLAND
Texas +118 over OAKLAND
Martin Perez was a one-time top prospect that has seen his star diminish along with his strikeout rate over the past two years, with initial trial in Texas going about as poorly as you'd expect from a kid with solid command. While it feels like Perez has been around for a while, he's only 22 with his MLB trials marred with inconsistency. As expected, he's had some ups and downs since his late June promotion but the overall picture looks promising. Perez throws hard (93 mph), without much to show for it in the strikeout rate department, so it's likely he's having trouble controlling his secondary pitches. However, his overall command is much improved from a year ago and complements his groundball profile well. Despite his inconsistencies, Perez is a pitcher on the rise, as he's tossed pure quality starts in five of his past six starts with the Rangers winning all of his last six. With both Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis no longer threats to his job security, Perez likely has a rotation spot locked up and his pedigree makes him an intriguing play for the remainder of the season. Surely, he has more upside then Bartolo Colon. Colon's xERA by month this year: 3.60/3.73/4.20/4.64/6.46. So while his ERA looks spectacular, Colon is far from a safe play. The rest he's had while on the DL may help the 40-year-old but that skills trend is ominous and not to be trusted spotting a price. End of story.
Our Pick
Texas +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
Today's Free Picks for Sep 03, 2013
Seattle @ KANSAS CITY Seattle +149 over KANSAS CITY
One cannot predict the outcome of a sporting event. You can look at all the breakdowns and numbers until you’re blue in the face but there are simply too many intangibles that impact the outcome that no crystal ball in the world could foresee and it’s for that reason we stress playing value and letting the chips fall where they may. A case in point is Bruce Chen. Fading him has value. Chen may go out and throw a gem today but this guy should not be this price over any team not named Houston or Miami. Chen hasn’t suddenly discovered something new. He’s a 36-year-old career swingman that has a career ERA of 4.49 over 1442 career innings. The Royals have dropped three of Chen’s last four starts. He was whacked by both Detroit and Washington over that span and he’s been whacked by a few others also. When Chen joined the rotation he had an ERA of 1.93 working primarily in relief but as a starter his ERA is 4.42. Chen’s margin of error is as thin as it’s always been and that’s because of a heavy fly-ball bias that is at a career low 25%/50% groundball/fly-ball rate. Advanced age, tons of fly balls, struggles against lefties and 77 career wins in 212 starts and 167 relief appearances are all reasons to bet against Chen at this price. Erasmo Ramirez was on a lot of sleeper lists coming into the season but has made only eight MLB starts, after getting injured in spring training and missing a significant amount of time. Five of his eight starts have been pure quality and although he has a 5.18 ERA, his xERA is more than a full run lower at 4.07. If you just look at his skills, 4.07 xERA, 14/42 BB/K’s in 49 frames and a 46%/20%/34% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile, it reveals his definite upside. Ramirez was one of the AL's most skilled starters in August and last year in September, he thrived with 27 IP, 7 ER, 5 BB/21 K. It appears that his arm is rounding into shape after an early triceps problem and should provide some nice value or profit potential in September. That applies here.
Our Pick
Seattle +149 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.98)
Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEES Chicago +133 over N.Y. YANKEES
Hiroki Kuroda has averaged over 200+ innings over the past three seasons and this year his inning count is up to 171. For a 38-year-old Korean League import, we may be seeing the signs of all that wear and tear. Since the All-Star break, Kuroda has allowed 57 hits in 52.2 innings for a BAA of .281. Over Kuroda’s last three starts, he’s been tagged for 29 hits in 16.2 innings for a BAA of .372. The Yankees have lost Kuroda’s last three starts by scores of 6-1, 7-2 and 7-2. Kuroda has been terrific all year at Yankee Stadium and perhaps he comes up stellar again here. However, the signs of fatigue are there and even if Kuroda comes up with a strong performance, it doesn’t mean he’ll win because Chris Sale is capable of shutting down anyone. Sale gained 3.3 mph on his four-seam fastball between July and August, by far the largest increase in MLB. Sale’s base skills in August were much better than his 3.95 ERA suggests. In August he averaged 9.1 K’s per nine innings and just 1.7 walks. A 33% hit rate and 17% hr/f inflated his ERA. Both those numbers are on the extreme side of misfortune. Overall, Sale has 193 K’s and just 39 walks issued in 180 innings. He has sick stuff that can make hitter’s look silly and over his past six starts, he has a league-low 13% line-drive rate. Sale is showing no signs of a late-season fade and is absolutely one of the best pitchers in the league to take back a tag with. With 20 quality starts in 25 attempts this season, of course Sale and the South Side can get us to the cashier’s booth here.
Our Pick
Chicago +133 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.66)
L.A. ANGELS @ Tampa Bay L.A. ANGELS +125 over Tampa Bay
Hot team plus a price gets the call here over the suddenly slumping Rays. Tampa has dropped five in a row and eight of its past nine games. Over their last five games, the Rays have scored seven runs and they dropped the opener here last night, 11-2. Matt Moore comes off the DL after missing a month with soreness in his left elbow and there are plenty of lingering issues surrounding him. Moore had the perfect storm of wildness and hit%/strand% sabotage him in June (44% hit %, 58% strand %). Overall, Moore has the lowest skills of any starting pitcher in the majors the third time he goes through lineups. He can't find the plate late in games. In fact, his walk rate per 9 innings from the first to the third times through lineups is 2.4, 5.8, 7.2. His walk rate is definitely problematic and with this being his first start back since being off a month, it could rear its ugly head earlier than usual. Moore also has a fly-ball bias profile and while his strikeout rate remains near elite, it is the only thing preventing him from being one of the least skilled pitchers in the game. Everything else, including health says to be very cautious when backing Moore because he can lose it quicker than anyone. Overall, the Rays are under .500 this season against lefties on the road and they’ll face one here in Jason Vargas. We’ll get back to Vargas in a minute. The Halos are the hottest team in the majors with nine wins in 10 games and over that span they’ve outscored they opposition, 50-20. Amazing what happens when under-achieving teams’ take the field with no pressure on them. Vargas has made barely noticeable steps in the right direction: Shut down LHBs in second half last year and his groundball % is creeping upwards while his other skills remain stable. Vargas always seems to give the Angels a chance to win, as his five losses in 18 starts will attest to. He comes in with a respectable 3.54 ERA and 18 K’s over his past 23 innings. Vargas cannot be recommended as a favorite but as a pooch throwing for the hottest team in the majors, he and the Angels offer up nothing but value here.
Our Pick
L.A. ANGELS +125 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.50)
Texas @ OAKLAND Texas +118 over OAKLAND
Martin Perez was a one-time top prospect that has seen his star diminish along with his strikeout rate over the past two years, with initial trial in Texas going about as poorly as you'd expect from a kid with solid command. While it feels like Perez has been around for a while, he's only 22 with his MLB trials marred with inconsistency. As expected, he's had some ups and downs since his late June promotion but the overall picture looks promising. Perez throws hard (93 mph), without much to show for it in the strikeout rate department, so it's likely he's having trouble controlling his secondary pitches. However, his overall command is much improved from a year ago and complements his groundball profile well. Despite his inconsistencies, Perez is a pitcher on the rise, as he's tossed pure quality starts in five of his past six starts with the Rangers winning all of his last six. With both Matt Harrison and Colby Lewis no longer threats to his job security, Perez likely has a rotation spot locked up and his pedigree makes him an intriguing play for the remainder of the season. Surely, he has more upside then Bartolo Colon. Colon's xERA by month this year: 3.60/3.73/4.20/4.64/6.46. So while his ERA looks spectacular, Colon is far from a safe play. The rest he's had while on the DL may help the 40-year-old but that skills trend is ominous and not to be trusted spotting a price. End of story.
Our Pick
Texas +118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.36)
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