9-4-13

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U.S. Open betting: Nadal vs. Robredo in all-Spanish showdown
By JAYPRIMETOWN

The U.S. Open is entering the late stages of the tournament with the contenders separating themselves from the pretenders. Day 10 of the tournament is highlighted by quarterfinal action.

Rafael Nadal (-3,300) vs. Tommy Robredo (+1,400)

This is an excellent quarterfinal between the hottest player in men's tennis Rafael Nadal and the man who knocked off Roger Federer, Tommy Robredo. In an all-Spanish affair, Robredo has a strong record at the US Open (30-12) but this is his first quarterfinal appearance in Flushing Meadows. Nadal dropped a set to Phillip Kohlschreiber, but has not lost a match on hard courts this year.

Robredo has proven to be a warrior and is very tough in five-set matches, but Nadal's form is at a different level right now. Nadal has won 48 of his last 50 matches on all surfaces. It would take the match of his life to beat Nadal Wednesday and that's not going to happen.

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Los Angeles at Minnesota (8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles +7.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

The Los Angeles Sparks need a win here to close to within a half a game of the Lynx. Minnesota has been just 5-4 in their last nine games, and despite winning their last four, those wins all came at the expense of losing teams. The fact is that Minnesota has only faced two winning teams in their last 17 contests - losing both. LA has been playing at the higher level at 9-2 over their last 11, and certainly have the personnel to hang tough or win here. Minnesota is also just 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. a winning team. Take the points and play on Los Angeles.

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Mitch Wilson

Tigers

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Sportswagers MLB
Today's Free Picks for Sep 04, 2013





N.Y. Mets @ ATLANTA
N.Y. Mets +134 over ATLANTA
12:10 PM EST. The Braves keep on winning but it’s not because of their offense. Atlanta has scored just 50 runs over its past 15 games. If you take away the 13 runs they put up in one game against Dice-K, that number drops to 37 runs in 14 games, which would the major’s worst mark over that 14-game stretch. The Braves have scored three runs or fewer in 11 of those past 14 games and many of them came against some very average starters. The Braves have been winning because of some outstanding starting pitching but they do not have that luxury today. Atlanta is Kameron Loe’s third team this season. He’s a 31-year-old career swingman that has appeared in 313 MLB games and has started just 47. This year he pitched for Seattle and the Cubbies before being shipped to the Braves and he’s appeared in just 13 games, all as a reliever. In 17.2 innings, Loe has been tagged for 28 hits (.467 oppBA) has walked seven and has posted a 1.98 WHIP. It’s a small sample size and Loe’s xERA was under 4 each of the three previous seasons so there's at least a possibility that he could give Atlanta some good innings. However, that possibility is not enough to warrant being this price against the Dillon Gee and the Mets. Atlanta is on cruise control, this is a day game after a night game and that usually means many veteran Braves’ hitters will get a day off here.
The numbers told us Dillon Gee was hideous in April and May and the Mets right-hander found himself on the waiver wire in many fantasy leagues but Gee has staged a 180-degree turnaround from June 1 on. The two-run drop in ERA from first to second half has a lot to do with things outside his control - hit% and strand%. Not only have fewer balls in play been dropping for hits, but fewer fly balls have been leaving the park. Gee possesses outstanding control, a decent strikeout rate, a groundball bias profile and a 2.31 ERA over his last five starts. This is a decent spot for he and the Mets to get out of town with one win in this series. Kameron Loe is grossly overpriced here because he throws for the Braves but Atlanta may not care much about this game with a seven-game trip on deck after this one.


Our Pick
N.Y. Mets +134 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.68)



Chicago @ N.Y. YANKEES
Chicago (5 inns) +167 over N.Y. YANKEES
After watching the White Sox blow a 4-1 lead in the eighth last night, we can’t feel comfortable playing them for the full game but we sure can feel comfortable taking back a price like this in the first five frames. For one, the Yankees have the Red Sox coming in tomorrow night for a season defining four-game set and that makes this one a look-ahead game. Additionally C.C. Sabathia is running on fumes. After years of consistent production, Sabathia has seen his ERA bloat above 4.00 for the first time since 2005 and close to 5.00 (4.91) over 183 innings. Sabathia’s skills have shown a serious deterioration over the past three months, which is highlighted by an unsightly 28% line-drive rate over that span. Another sign of trouble is that Sabathia walked just 38 batters in his first 145 frames this season but has walked 15 over his past 31 innings. C.C. Sabathia is a pitcher in trouble.
Erik Johnson has put up exceptional numbers in just his second full season and has been awarded a September call-up. He figures to be a significant competitor for a 2014 rotation spot and gets the call today in the Bronx against the Yankees. How’s that for one’s first major-league start? Johnson has only allowed more than two earned runs in one of his 24 starts this season coupled with a 131/40 K/BB ratio over 142 IP. He is a physical pitcher (6'3, 235) with a power build and aggressive demeanor and approach on the mound. Johnson has shown improvement in both his repertoire and pitch sequencing this year, and attacks hitters with a heavy 90-96 mph fastball, solid slider, curveball, and an improving change-up. He pounds the lower half of the zone inducing lots of groundballs, and his slider has become a reliable swing-and-miss out pitch. Johnson does not project as a #1 or #2 starter, but a very dependable #3 or #4 who can provide lots of innings with a good number of strikeouts and a solid ERA. Over 236.1 innings at the minor league level, Johnson posted a 2.21 ERA and averaged 8.3 K’s per 9 innings to go along with a stellar 1.08 WHIP. At Charlotte (AAA), Johnson started 10 games and went 4-1 with a 1.57 ERA and a .209 oppBA in 57.1 frames. He also allowed just one jack in those 57.1 innings. Backing a rookie always comes with risk but this rookie appears to have great poise and confidence and it sure doesn’t hurt that they Yankees have never seen him and have bigger fish to fry beginning tomorrow. Price and situation dictates this one.


Our Pick
Chicago (5 inns) +167 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.34)



San Francisco @ SAN DIEGO
San Francisco +101 over SAN DIEGO
Regardless of outcome, we’re absolutely going with the best of it here by backing Tim Lincecum and the Giants at a price against Eric Stults and the Padres. This one is actually a pitching mismatch and it’s not in the Padres favor. At the age of 32 last year, Stults went 8-3 with a 2.91 in 99 innings for the White Sox and Padres. A late bloomer? Not exactly says his 4.42 MLB xERA. Stults’ command was marginal and he benefited from favorable hit and strand percentages. This year is much of the same, only his xERA of 5.10 over his last 20 starts is even worse than his career xERA. Stults’ 3.81 ERA is all smoke and mirrors. His WHIP on the year is an acceptable 1.26 but over his last 20 starts it’s at an unacceptable 1.47 clip. Stults’ groundball rate isn’t even decent at just 37%. Eric Stults is like Barry Zito, Bartolo Colon and a few others that can get lucky from time to time and pick up some wins. Stults’ is just 8-12 this year with just 14 of his 28 starts being of the pure quality variety. The fact that he’s favored here over Lincecum is like Barry Zito being favored over Clayton Kershaw. Ok, well, maybe that’s a stretch but you get the picture.
Tim Lincecum took us back a few years with his dominating skill set in July: 12.4 K’s per 9 IP, 47% groundball rate and dominating start after dominating start. Only the skills of Matt Harvey were better than Lincecum’s in July. Lincecum's 4.50 ERA would have been a lot lower had he not been victimized by an extremely high 23% hr/f. We can no longer count on consistency from him because his last 10 months say so but let us say this. Lincecum is a free agent at the end of the year and this last month could go a long way in determining his market value. This last month is as important to Lincecum as pitching in the World Series so you can expect him to bring it all here. If this one loses, so be it but we’re suggesting you do not miss this one because it has a much greater chance of winning than it does of losing.


Our Pick
San Francisco +101 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.02)



Baltimore @ CLEVELAND
Baltimore +114 over CLEVELAND
Be careful about betting Zach McAllister against the Orioles. There's a pretty wide gap between his surface ERA (3.81) and xERA (4.51) due to a low 6% hr/f on the season. Given McAllister's fly-ball tendencies (42% FB%), the long balls could be flying this time around against a Baltimore team leading baseball in HR’s. Earlier in the year, we mentioned that there could be something interesting about McAllister and an upside projection of a 3.50 ERA was noted. Even after missing six weeks with a finger sprain, McAllister has come close to that mark but hasn’t made many major gains at all. McAllister’s strikeout rate climb is over and outside of 2011, his control has been stagnant. His xERA shows he’s not really made any improvements; it's the high strand% and low hr/f that are deflating his 3.81 ERA. McAllister’s 41%/12% dominant start/disaster start split with a bunch of very “blah” performances in between reveal just how volatile and untrustworthy he really is.
Zach Britton is also risky. He’s made just six starts this year for the O’s and went 2-3 with a 4.76 ERA over 35 innings. Last year, Britton went 5-3 with a 5.07 ERA in 60 IP at Baltimore. Remnants of his 2011 shoulder injury shelved him until July last year and then he pitched brilliantly or dreadfully from start to start. This sinkerballer induces tons of groundballs, strikes out some and walks too many but has he ever been pain free? Health will define his value and right now he says he feels great. In any event, the big difference in this game is that the Orioles are a pooch and their offense is scoring a lot more runs than the Indians’ offense. Perhaps, just perhaps, Britton comes up with one of his gems. Overlay.


Our Pick
Baltimore +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

Game: Texas at Oakland (3:35 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +122 (moneyline) at Bovada

When you look at these teams, it would be hard to decide that Oakland is the better team, but the A's continue to keep on, keeping on. Last season they needed a sweep of Texas to win the AL West in the last series of the season and got it done. Texas, prior to this series, had faced 24 straight games against teams below .500. The A's are one game out after last night's loss, but they have rebounded convincingly in this situation, and I like their chances to do so here today at home. Yu Darvish has shown some vulnerabilities of late, and the Rangers are just 3-9 in his last 12 when following a quality start in his last outing. The A's are winning the big ones as they are now 50-24 in their last 74 at home vs. a winning team. Take Oakland.

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tkwins

MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL

4 units
Tex Rangers Y Darvish -r V/s OAK ATHLETICS J PARKER -R
u7-115

3 units
Pit Pirates F Liriano -l V/s MIL BREWERS W PERALTA -R
Pit Pirates F Liriano -l -149

3 units
La Dodgers E Volquez -r V/s COL ROCKIES DE LA ROSA-L
u10-105

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JR Stevens/Smooth44

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)

MLB

(901) NY-METS +130/RRL -1.5 +205
(905) SAN FRANCISCO +100/RRL -1.5 +160
(910) CINCINNATI -115/RL -1.5 +180
(912) MILWAUKEE +140/RRL -1.5 +290
(918) OAKLAND +115/RRL -1.5 +240
(919) CHI-WHITE SOX +175/RRL -1.5 +255

*Play side and runline/reverse runline equally
"RRL" means "Reverse Runline" or "Alternate Runline

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dave price

Top play
rockies ml

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BIG AL

MLB TOTALS WINNER!
Game Date/Time: 9/4/13 8:10 pm

Selection: Mariners/Royals 'under' Line: 8
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals 'UNDER' the total.
Righthander Jaijuan Walker made one of the most anticipated debuts of the year last Friday when he pitched his first MLB game for the Mariners in Houston and Walker lived up to the considerable hype. Although limited to 70 pitches on that night, we saw enough in five innings to know that the 21-year-old from Shreveport, Louisiana is one of the games brightest young talents as he limited the Astros offense to just one unearned run on two hits in a 7-1 victory. Walker will be on the road again tonight, this time in Kansas City facing an offense that has been almost as weak recently as the one he faced last time as the Royals have scored just 19 runs in their last six games. Of course, Walker's own offense has been pretty putrid as well as the Mariners - sans Michael Morse who they traded to the Orioles - have plated just seven runs in their last four games. With the 4-3 Royals win on Tuesday, the under is now 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings. Take the 'under.'

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Bob Balfe

LA Angels

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The Delawarian

BetThisPick

2* Boston/Detroit UNDER 9.5
2* Padres ML -103 vs Giants

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Great lakes

stl cards

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SB Professor MLB Late Picks

918. Oakland A's +110
930. Arizona Diamondbacks -115
906. San Diego Padres -108
908. Philadelphia Phillies 134
910. Cincinnati Reds -116
924. Boston Red Sox -118

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JMR Sports Consultants

Giants
Brewers
Over Braves
Over Rockies

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Jack Jones

Padres/Giants Over 7