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Bryan Leonard | MLB ML - Wednesday, Sep 4 2013 6:40PM
ML 906 SDP(-110) 5Dimes vs 905 SFG double-dime bet
Analysis:SAN DIEGO v SAN FRANCISCO
The San Diego Padres are 9-4 when Eric Stults starts at Petco Park this season and that's the situation that we haveon Wednesday evening when the Giants and Padres wrap up a three-game set. Stults has been terrific at home this season with a 2.63 ERA, a 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent's batting average of .218. Stults has gotten unlucky of late, stranding just 62 percent of his baserunners after being around league average in the first half of the season. His strikeout and walk ratios have not changed much, but his batting average against has really shot u €p. His first half FIP was 3.30 and his second half FIP is 3.50, but his ERA difference is from 3.40 to 4.91. Stults is due for some improvement in the second half and that's what we expect to happen against a Giants lineup that has had trouble scoring runs most of the season.
Tim Lincecum cannot be counted on for any kind of consistency at this stage of his career and we certainly don't expect it here. Since throwing a no hitter against these Padres back in June, Lincecum has posted a 4.69 ERA over his last 48 innings. Petco Park has become less pitcher-friendly and Lincecum sports a 3-7 record with a 1.47 WHIP on the road this season. Lincecum probably won't get much support, as the Giants are just 18-26 against southpaw starters this season.
Stults has lost his last five decisions and doesn't have a win since July 14, so we expect a motivated effort from him and his teammates in a ballpark where he has pitched well and against an opponent that ranks 24th in wOBA and 23rd in OPS against lefties.
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