9-5-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL Prop Shop: Thursday Night Football's best prop bets
By SEAN MURPHY

The NFL Prop Shop opens its doors for another season of alternative wagers, starting with a look at the best prop plays for Thursday’s opener between the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos.

Total gross passing yards: Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (248.5 yards)

Most are expecting a significant dropoff in production from the Ravens offense this season. I'm not so sure.

Even with the departure of Anquan Boldin and the season-ending injury to Dennis Pitta, this is still a team that can thrive in the passing game with Joe Flacco even more comfortable in his second season running Jim Caldwell's offense.

With Elvis Dumervil suiting up in purple and Von Miller suspended, Flacco should have a little extra time to operate Thursday night. I expect him to throw early and often on the uneven Broncos secondary.

Take: Over 248.5 yards (-110)

Total receiving yards: Eric Decker, Denver Broncos (65.5 yards)

Much of the attention is being focused on two Broncos' receivers, Wes Welker and Demaryius Thomas. I think it's important that the Ravens don't forget about Eric Decker, who could settle into a very productive role in the Denver offense this season.

Decker developed a nice chemistry with Peyton Manning last season and while he does take a step back in the depth chart, I still feel that the Broncos will find a way to get him the football. The Ravens defensive strength certainly doesn't lie in their secondary and I like the fact that we don't need a monster game from Decker to cash this ticket.

Take: Over 65.5 yards (-110)

Total QB sacks: Both teams (4.0)

While the Broncos gained in some areas in the offseason, they lost big time in terms of their pass rush, with Elvis Dumervil defecting to Baltimore and Von Miller suspended for a good chunk of the season. The Ravens haven't always been able to keep Flacco upright, but I expect their offensive line to hold its own in this matchup.

Meanwhile, the Broncos know all about Elvis Dumervil's exploits and will certainly gameplan accordingly. They can ill afford to have Manning getting rattled this early in the season. A healthy dose of their ground game, along with plenty of quick hitters, should help protect Denver's prize possession.

Take: Under 4.0 (+105)

Total points: Baltimore Ravens (20.5)

The Ravens offense isn't getting nearly enough respect heading into this matchup. While the Broncos possess a formidable defense, it's not an elite unit in my opinion. We saw some hiccups from Flacco in the preseason, but I'm confident he can orchestrate the three touchdown drives that are required to cash this ticket.

We saw Baltimore reach another level in terms of offensive efficiency after ousting Cam Cameron from the offensive coordinator role last year. With a full offeseason to implement and absorb Jim Caldwell's offense, I look for Flacco & Co. to perform well early in 2013, starting on opening night in Denver.

Take: Over 20.5 (-110)

Odds courtesy of the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas.

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Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know

With the NFL season opener stealing the spotlight, Thursday's two college football contests are in the dark. That could mean added value with football bettors looking elsewhere for action. Here's a quick look at this pair of games:

FAU Owls at East Carolina Pirates (-20.5, 54)

The Owls expect to have freshman QB Greg Hankerson back under center after he left FAU’s 34-6 loss to Miami with a rib injury. Hankerson fell on the football while being tackled, leaving passing duties to sophomore Jaquez Johnson. Johnson, who started the game and split time with Hankerson, was 11 for 20 for 83 yards passing and added 30 yards rushing. Owls offensive coordinator Brian Wright will alternate between the two Thursday.

East Carolina won’t be rolling out the welcome mat for FAU in its first C-USA game. The Pirates put up 52 points in a warm-up win over Old Dominion in Week 1 (52-38) but failed to cover as 15-point home favorites. Quarterback Shane Carden set a school record with 447 yards passing (ECU had 481 total yards of offense) in that win, finding WR Justin Hardy for 191 of those gains and WR Davon Grayson for three touchdowns on four catches.

Key betting stat: Over is 6-1 in Pirates’ last seven games overall.

Sacramento State at Arizona State Sun Devils (-37)

Arizona State and Sacramento State will be looking for their first points of the season Thursday night, but only the host Sun Devils will be playing their opener. The FCS' Hornets are coming off a 24-0 loss at San Jose State, and the opposition doesn't get any easier with Arizona State. The Sun Devils are looking to build upon an 8-5 record in coach Todd Graham's inaugural season in the desert, and with 17 returning starters Arizona State plans to contend with nationally-ranked USC and UCLA in the Pac-12 South Division.

Of those returning starters, quarterback Taylor Kelly and defensive tackle Will Sutton stand out. Kelly had a breakout campaign as a sophomore last season, passing for 3,039 yards and 29 touchdowns against nine interceptions. Sutton is the reigning Pac-12 defensive player of the year after recording 63 tackles and 13 sacks in a dominant junior year.

Key betting stat: Over is 7-1 in Sun Devils' last eight Thursday games.

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Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos: Tale of the tape

The Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos kickoff the 2013 NFL schedule Thursday night. We break down each side and let you know which team has the edge with our Tale of Tape for Thursday Night Football.

Offense

Peyton Manning is the biggest offensive weapon on the field Thursday and has added a new WR to his arsenal in former Patriots slotman Wes Welker. He joins downfield threats Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker on an offense that averaged 30.4 points per game.

Denver’s rushing attack is a bit of an unknown heading into Week 1. The Broncos selected Wisconsin TD machine Montee Ball in the draft. He’ll share duties with RB Ronnie Hillman. Without a proven ground game, Baltimore could tee off on Manning with the pass rush.

Baltimore is hoping its heavy investment in QB Joe Flacco pays off. During their improbable run to the Super Bowl, Flacco was at the wheel of an explosive attack that averaged 31 points on 275.5 passing yards a game. Anquan Bolden is no longer in the mix and TE Dennis Pitta is out for the year, but WR Torrey Smith always seems to play well in primetime.

Ray Rice remains the backbone of the Baltimore ground game. The shifty RB rushed for 1,143 yards and is just as dangerous catching the ball. He was a beast versus Denver in the AFC Divisional Round, running up 131 yards and a touchdown.

Edge: Denver

Defense

Linebacker Elvis Dumervil traded hats this offseason, signing with Baltimore after a fax fiasco in Denver. That pickup shifts the defensive edge in this Week 1 matchup drastically, even more so now that Broncos LB Von Miller is suspended for six games.

The Ravens still have a nasty front seven, anchored by LB Terrell Suggs, who was a one-man wrecking crew with two sacks, a forced fumble and 10 tackles versus Denver in the playoffs. Baltimore’s secondary took a step back this offseason due to the loss of veteran S Ed Reed. Even with him, the Ravens surrendered some big numbers during last year’s postseason but were able to outscore their opponents.

The Broncos’ daunting pass rush has been subdued. Denver doesn’t have Dumervil or Miller pressuring the passer, which should allow Flacco plenty of time to pick apart a secondary that has seen better days. Champ Bailey is still an elite CB and gets some help from the addition of Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, however, those two haven’t been at 100 percent all summer.

Edge: Baltimore

Special teams

Nothing gives those long field goals extra pop like the thin Mile-High air. Denver kicker Matt Prater is a threat for three points as soon as the ball crosses the 50-yard line. Broncos kick return specialist Trindon Holliday went for scores on punt and kickoff returns last season but has plagued his squad with costly fumbles. On the other side of the kickoff, Denver budged for a respectable average of 22.1 yards on kickoffs and just 6.2 on punts – lowest in the AFC.

The word is out on speedster Jacoby Jones, who highlighted Super Bowl XLVII with a 108-yard kickoff-return TD. Baltimore ranked tops in the NFL with an average of 27.3 yards per kickoff and added 9.4 yards per punt return. We'll see what the new kickoff rule does to those stats this season. The Ravens were sound on return coverage, giving up 23.2 yards per kickoff and 7.8 yards per punt in 2012.

Kicker Justin Tucker was surefooted in the Super Bowl, making two key FGs in the fourth quarter. He finished sixth in FG conversions, with his three misses coming from between 40-49 yards away. There won’t be any jitters in his boots for the season opener.

Edge: Baltimore

Notable quotable

"The no-huddle offense is a great tool, a great strategy. You obviously have to be in great shape as a football team and your opponent has to be in great shape to keep up with you. But you have to execute quicker, you have to think quicker. You have to be able to operate in that kind of environment, but you force your opponent to do the same. It fits our philosophy." – Ravens head coach John Harbaugh on defending Broncos’ no-huddle in thin Denver air.

“When we're on the field on offense -- I love our fans' excitement -- but if we can just find that controlled noise level. I believe we are going to go for it on some fourth downs this year and maybe not cheering when we're going for it on fourth down – wait and see and if we get it, cheer then. To me, it's a hard thing. These fans have so much enthusiasm, but for a receivers' standpoint, you'd love to have that homefield advantage where you wouldn't have to signal at home.” – Peyton Manning on crowd noise distracting the offense at Sports Authority Field.

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Inside the stats: NFL preseason wins matter in Week 1
By MARC LAWRENCE

Week 1 of the NFL kicks off the 2013 season, along with Week 2 on the College Football gridiron. Before we head to the window, let’s roundup a few last-minute edges.

Upside down, inside out

Good football teams win games both on the scoreboard and in the stats. Bad football teams lose games both on the scoreboard and in the stats.

Phony football teams somehow manage to wins games on the scoreboard while losing in the stats.

By our scorecard, here are last week’s FBS-lined “inside-out” stat winners and losers…

Won the game, lost the stats: Alabama, Auburn, Clemson, Eastern Michigan, Fresno State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Texas State, Utah and Virginia.

Lost the game, won the stats: BYU, California, Georgia, Georgia State, Rice, Rutgers, SMU, Southern Mississippi, UNLV, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington Sate and Wyoming.

Note: BYU and Southern Miss were triple-digit yardage winners while Texas State and Virginia were triple-digit yardage losers.

Bowler blues

Bowl teams last year who opened the season with a loss this year often come flat in game No. 2, covering the spread less than 50 percent of the time (117-126-2 ATS) since 1990.

Worse, they sing the blues when facing a conference foe in Game 2, posting as dismal 12-24 ATS in these games.

Making conference calls this week are Georgia and Utah State.

Coach me up

Willie Taggart had a horrific debut with South Florida last week, losing 53-21 to McNeese State at home.

He’ll be put to the test this week when his Bulls travel north to meet Michigan State, knowing he is 15-2-1 ATS as a road dog, including 11-0 the last eleven.

NFL newbies

No less than seven NFL head coaches make their debut with new teams this week.

From our database, the largest discernable edge is found by fading favorites debuting a new coach in Week, as they are just 12-18 ATS in these games since 2000.

Dress those debuts up in competitive games, as a favorite of less than four points, and they fold like a cheap lawn chair going 5-10 SU and 3-12 ATS.

Chicago’s Marc Trestman, Cleveland’s Rob Chudzinski and Kansas City’s Andy Reid find themselves in wobbly seats Sunday.

Preseason wipeouts

Sweeping the board, or getting swept, during the preseason is not a good omen for NFL teams playing their first game of the campaign.

That’s concerned by the fact 0-4 preseason teams are 22-32-2 ATS, including 11-20-1 ATS as favorites since 1983.

Atlanta and Pittsburgh are on opening week alert.

On the other side, teams who went 4-0 in the preseason are just 23-28-1 ATS in regular season openers, including 10-19-1 ATS for those residing in the NFC conference.

Seattle and Washington will try their best to avoid an opening wipeout this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The underdog in the Notre Dame-Michigan series is 21-4 ATS the last 25 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ravens or Broncos? NFL bloggers debate who will cover

The 2013 NFL season opens in grand style when the defending Super Bowl champion Baltimore Ravens come to Mile High to take on the Denver Broncos, who are set as 7.5-point home favorites Thursday.

In order to get the best in-depth look at the season opener, we’ve enlisted the help of each team’s expert bloggers. Justin Silberman from Ravens blog “The Purple Chaos” and Kim Constantinesco from Broncos blog “Predominantly Orange” put on the helmets and butt heads over which team will not only win but cover on Thursday Night Football.

WHY BALTIMORE WILL COVER

Justin Silberman writes for “The Purple Chaos”. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @ThePurpleChaos.

No ordinary Joe

Joe Flacco silenced his critics during last season’s AFC Divisional Playoff round matchup against the Broncos. This time around, he won’t have to worry about the talented pass-rushing tandem of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil wreaking havoc in the backfield, which should mean a more comfortable pocket for Flacco. Instead, the Ravens offensive line will be tasked with blocking Shaun Phillips and Robert Ayers, a matchup that favors the defending Super Bowl champions.

Elvis’ homecoming

Speaking of Dumervil, he will be on the Ravens’ sideline after signing with the team in March. With Dumervil playing on the opposite side of a healthy Terrell Suggs - who had 10 tackles, two sacks and a forced fumble vs. Denver in Janaury - coupled with Denver’s makeshift offensive line, quarterback Peyton Manning will be hard-pressed to establish any offensive consistency.

Strong starts

The Ravens are 5-0 under head coach John Harbaugh in season openers, but they will be playing in Thursday night’s annual kickoff game for the first time during the Harbaugh era. In Thursday night contests under Harbaugh, the Ravens are 2-1. To beat one of the best teams in the AFC, the Ravens have to win the mind game of playing on a short week, something Harbaugh’s track record has proven his teams have been able to do.

WHY DENVER WILL COVER

Kim Constantinesco is the senior editor for PredominantlyOrange.com. You can follow them on Facebook and Twitter @PredomOrange.

Mile High Air

The Mile High advantage plays a bigger role at the beginning of the season when conditioning for certain players is still an issue. At 5,280 feet above sea level, Peyton Manning is running his offense much faster than last year. A couple of no-hudde series that moves the ball down the field will gas the Ravens defense and the effects will really be felt in the fourth quarter. The three giant receiving threats in Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker gives the Ravens too much to look after, particularly when they're tired

Heartbreak still hurts

People get over breakups in less than eight months, but the Broncos have not gotten over the crushing playoff defeat in January. How it happened and the fact that the Ravens went on to win the Super Bowl gives the Broncos enough fuel to light up that giant Joe Flacco banner hanging on Sports Authority Field at Mile High. Anger and revenge are enough to potentially turn this one into a blowout.

The thrill is gone

The Ravens lost keys guys in Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Dannell Ellerbe, Paul Kruger, and Anquan Boldin in the offseason. While the front office worked hard to find solid replacements, the Ravens just don't have the chemistry yet, particularly on defense. Meanwhile, the Broncos kept their main guys in place (other than Elvis Dumervil) and have a full year of experience under their belt.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Thursday's MLB betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes on Thursday's MLB games:

American League

Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals (-163, 9)

Hot pitching stat: Royals right-hander Jeremy Guthrie is coming off back-to-back impressive starts, allowing just two runs while striking out nine over 12 innings against Tampa Bay and Toronto.

Hot batting stat: Kansas City INF Emilio Bonifacio is 6-for-16 with a pair of doubles in his career against Mariners lefty Joe Saunders.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The Royals are 24-8 in their last 32 games as a favorite.

Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees (-110, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Yankees righty Ivan Nova is 4-2 with a 2.20 ERA and just two home runs allowed in eight starts since the All-Star break.

Cold batting stat: New York OF Ichiro Suzuki is batting just .213 with zero extra-base hits in 47 at-bats against the Red Sox in 2013.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 4-1 in Nova's last five starts against Boston.

Chicago White Sox at Baltimore Orioles (-160, 9)

Hot pitching stat: White Sox left-hander Jose Quintana had one of the best outings of his career in his last encounter with Baltimore, striking out 11 while limiting Baltimore to just two hits over seven shutout innings.

Cold batting stat: Entering Thursday's action, Baltimore 3B Manny Machado had just seven doubles in 171 second-half at-bats after hitting 39 prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: Baltimore has won 12 of righty Miguel Gonzalez's last 14 home starts.

Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics (-248, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Astros right-hander Brad Peacock is 2-2 with a 5.35 ERA and six home runs allowed over 33 2/3 innings away from Houston this season.

Hot batting stat: Houston 2B Jose Altuve has nine hits over his last four games.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The Astros have won just four of the last 21 meetings between the teams.

Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Angels (+150, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Rays left-hander David Price is 5-1 with a 2.52 ERA in nine second-half starts.

Hot batting stat: Angels 3B Mark Trumbo is 5-for-12 with a home run in his career against Price.

Weather: Skies will be clear with temperatures in the high-70s. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The Angels have won 10 of their last 11 Thursday games.

National League

St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds (-141, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Reds left-hander Tony Cingrani has surrendered more than three runs just once in 24 career major-league appearances.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati SS Zack Cosart is 5-for-14 with a pair of home runs in his career against Cardinals right-hander Lance Lynn.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: St. Louis is 12-4 in starter Lance Lynn's last 16 outings against teams with winning records.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants (-113, 7)

Cold pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Trevor Cahill is 4-6 with a 4.78 ERA and 10 home runs allowed in 10 road starts and one relief appearance.

Cold batting stat: Arizona 1B Paul Goldschmidt is batting just .176 with 13 strikeouts in 51 at-bats against the Giants this season.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow out to center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in the Giants' last nine home games.

** Odds, probable starters, stats and weather forecast as of 7:42 p.m. ET. Wednesday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Prediction Machine

Baltimore +8 60.1%

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Betting Line Moves ( Saturday )

Tulsa -10
Texas -7
Tulane -6
Navy +13
San Jose State +26.5

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Broncos seek payback vs. Ravens Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -9.5, Total: 48

The 2013 NFL season gets underway Thursday night with the defending champion Ravens visiting a Broncos team favored to win this year’s championship.

These teams played a classic in last year’s playoffs. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco threw a game-tying, 70-yard TD pass to Jacoby Jones with 31 seconds left in regulation before eventually winning 38-35 in double overtime to advance to the AFC Championship game. Flacco is back to lead his team that parted ways with several starters, including retired LB Ray Lewis, but the Ravens signed DE Elvis Dumervil away from Denver. The Broncos inked former Patriots star WR Wes Welker to give QB Peyton Manning another weapon, but pass-rushing monster LB Von Miller is suspended for this game, while starting CBs Champ Bailey (foot) and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (ankle) are both questionable. Denver was a whopping 10-2 ATS (83%) as a favorite last season and 6-2 ATS (75%) at home. But the Ravens are also 17-11 ATS (61%) on the road in the past three seasons and 7-4 ATS (64%) in the underdog role in the past two years. Also, head coach John Harbaugh has also been a strong bet since arriving in Baltimore, sporting a 51-38 ATS mark (57%), including 39-25 ATS (61%) in games played on grass.

The Super Bowl champions have steadily moved away from the running game as they’ve gone more no-huddle the past two seasons. This is an Air Coryell offense that attacks downfield with QB Joe Flacco looking for speedy WRs Torrey Smith and Jacoby Jones. These two wideouts combined for 175 receiving yards and 3 TD in the miracle win at Denver on Jan. 12. Because TE Dennis Pitta (hip) will miss the 2013 season, Flacco is left with TEs Ed Dickson and Dallas Clark for the short stuff. RB Ray Rice continues to be used as a security blanket and screen option to create mismatches, but in last year's playoff meeting with the Broncos, he carried the ball 30 times for 131 yards (4.4 YPC) and a touchdown. Baltimore ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring last year with 24.9 PPG. On defense, LBs Ray Lewis and Dannell Ellerbe, and DBs Ed Reed, Bernard Pollard and Cary Williams are all gone from the 17th-ranked total defense (351 YPG allowed) and the tied for 12th-ranked scoring defense (21.5 PPG allowed). However, DT Haloti Ngata, LB Terrell Suggs and a healthy CB Lardarius Webb are still Pro Bowl defenders. Replacing Lewis and Ellerbe will be ILBs Daryl Smith and Josh Bynes, who has outplayed rookie Arthur Brown in training camp. Newcomers DE/LB Elvis Dumervil, DL Chris Canty and DB Michael Huff will all help fill these gaping holes.

This is basically QB Peyton Manning’s offense, featuring a lot of pre-snap adjustments and more quick hitters. Manning threw for 290 yards and 3 TD in the playoff loss to Baltimore last year, but threw two picks, the last of which set up the game-winning field goal in double overtime. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker will work on the outside as receiver 1 and 1A. They’ll go to a three-receiver base with WR Wes Welker coming in, and the former Patriots star will likely take over as Manning’s No. 1 target. The potent passing attack was a big reason the Broncos scored 30.1 PPG (2nd in NFL) with 398 total YPG (4th in NFL) last year. Rookie RB Montee Ball should get a few more carries than either RBs Ronnie Hillman or Knowshon Moreno. On defense, the Broncos tied the NFL lead with 52 sacks in their first year under defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio in 2012, but departed with DE Elvis Dumervil (11 sacks), and OLB Von Miller (18.5 sacks) is suspended four games for violating the league's substance-abuse policy plus another two games for further violation during the appeal. This will be a huge void for the Broncos early this season. Denver's defense allowed a league-low 4.58 yards per play last season and finished second in total defense (291 YPG)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL
*DENVER 29 - Baltimore 26—The waiting in Denver to avenge that painful
Jan. 12 double-OT playoff loss has been excruciating, especially for for S
Rahim Moore after he misplayed Jacoby Jones’ game-tying 70-yard TD catch,
and for practically (but not completely)-perfect Peyton Manning after throwing
an int. in OT. The Broncos can get their payback, but it won’t come easy,
especially with LY’s voracious pass rush without Elvis Dumervil (now a Raven!)
and LB Von Miller (suspended). Baltimore compensated in free agency for its
many departures. And sources say Joe Flacco’s ascent in the playoffs (11 TDs,
0 ints.) had a lot to do with new o.c. Jim Caldwell allowing audible freedom at
line of scrimmage. TV—NBC

CFB
*EAST CAROLINA 41 - Florida Atlantic 27—The ECU offense got off to a
good start, with jr. QB Shane Carden (one time at Texas Tech) hurling for 447
yards and 5 TDs vs. Old Dominion. Still, the Pirates led only 35-31 early in the
fourth. And FAU’s Carl Pelini stretched his road dog mark to 7-1, as his defense
hung tough at Miami and his two new QBs (juco Jaquez Johnson & true frosh
Greg Hankerson) both got their feet wet in a big way vs. the loaded Hurricanes.
(FIRST MEETING)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE SPORTS REPORTER

NFL
*DENVER over BALTIMORE by 12
The Baltimore defense has a lot to prove. In the Super Bowl, it let a young quarterback who takes a long time between snaps while he stares down the offensive
play-caller on the sidelines nevertheless lead a big comeback against it. That unit
now has a lot of new players on it, and is being asked to jell very quickly against
a very good, veteran quarterback who has seen it all before and doesn’t need to
stare down an offensive coordinator between plays like a deer in the headlights.
In this particular match-up, the Ravens could have a tough time getting lined up
without Ray Lewis and Ed Reed steering them. Peyton Manning gets his team to
the line of scrimmage zip-zip-zip and he knows what he wants to do when he gets
there. He has added what figures to be a good possession tool (WR Wes Welker) to
help extend drives and keep Joe Flacco & Co. off the field, and force the Baltimore
offense to drive a long way on most of its series. The Broncos are playing without
their terrifying rush ends of the recent past. Von Miller (suspended for six games)
and Elvis Dumervil (now on the Ravens). But good coaches with time to prepare
can work around such nuisances. Like overloading the secondary instead, limiting
the big play instead of trying to force one of your own (which basically blew the
playoff loss to the Ravens last season).
DENVER, 29-17.

CFB
*EAST CAROLINA over FLORIDA ATLANTIC by 18
East Carolina returned eight starters on each side of the ball, 76% of their rushing
yards, 88% of their passing yards, and guess what? They gained 120% of their
total yards per game from last season in their opener against level-rising Old
Dominion. On defense, ECU welcomed back 78% of its tackles (766 of 977) and
81.8% of its turnover production (18 of 22), and guess what? They gave up 100%
of last season’s yards per game to Old Dominion (460 on the nose), and 130%
of last season’s scoring yield per game (38, vs. 31 a year ago). So, ha-ha, this
coaching staff may never get their kids to play real defense. FAU was up against it
against the Hurricanes of Miami last Friday night but can make a little more noise
in this one.
EAST CAROLINA, 38-20.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASE
BALTIMORE over Denver RATING: 4

DENVER 27 - Baltimore 23 - (8:30 - NBC) -- Revenge rears its head, as Broncs
were stung by 2 unbelievable TD tosses in playoff OT loss to the eventual Super
Bowl champs. Lewis, Bolden, & Reed are gone from Raven roster, but youth just
may prove an improvement. Manning's 105.8 QB rating & 37 were 2nd best in
his brilliant career. But Broncs without Dumervil, & Miller, who accounted for
27½ sacks LY. Bailey (foot) still questionable, & Welker not 100½. Thus, Flacco
(perfect in the playoffs), Rice & Co should stay in this one all the way. Take the 8.

CFB
EAST CAROLINA 45 - Florida Atlantic 24 - (7:30 - FSN) -- Sure, Pirates have
VaTech up next, but shouldn't be deterred from posting another large number (46
ppg last 8 outings, but allowing 34). Ceded 26 FDs to OldDominion, but note QB
Carden a smooth 46-of-54 (447 yds, 5 TDs). Owls just a 20-18 FD deficit at
Miami, but allowed 53 & 63 yd TD runs. But can't run & nor contain it. Pirate call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWERSWEEP

NFL
Baltimore vs DENVER - Thursday The Defending Super Bowl champs actually open up on the road due to a scheduling conflict. The Ravens came into Denver LY and knocked the Broncos out of the playoffs so they will be confident. DEN, of course, is out for revenge and did deliver our NFL Game of the Year in this matchup in the regular season winning 34-17 at BAL (-3, cover by 2 td).
Since 1993 the Super Bowl Champ has only been a dog 3 times all as +2’ pt dogs (Dal ‘93, NE ‘02 & TB ‘03).

CFB
Florida Atlantic at EAST CAROLINA - First meeting as this is FAU’s inaugural CUSA game. East Carolina has gone 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home the L2Y vs CUSA opp including 4-0 LY (3-1 ATS) winning by 18 ppg. EC is one of the most exp’d tms in the country w/18 st’rs back from LY’s 8-5 tm and are in the midst of a 3 gm home stand. FAU is in the middle of a 3 gm road trip but were 4-0 ATS LY in B2B road gms incl a 2-0 mark in gms #2-3 LY during a 3-gm road trip. FAU cashed for us LW as a 2H Selection as an AD vs Miami. Will we go to them again or will the Pirates give them a rude CUSA awakening and continue their home dominance over CUSA foes?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POWER PLAYS

NFL
BALTIMORE
DENVER
The Ravens open up on the road due to a sked conflict with MLB. DEN is out for revenge with Manning a 2nd year removed from his neck inj. BAL did a nice job reloading in the offseason and their win LY gives them confidence here. This is only the 4th time since 1993 the defending SB Champ has been a wk 1 dog.
NO PLAY: BRONCOS 30 RAVENS 19

CFL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC
EAST CAROLINA
East Carolina has gone 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home the last 2 years vs CUSA opponents including 4-0 last year (3-1 ATS) winning by 18 ppg. FAU was 4-0 ATS LY in B2B road gms.
NO PLAY: EAST CAROLINA 38 FLORIDA ATLANTIC 17

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

NFL
*Denver over Baltimore by 4
This may be the revenge game of the year, but Baltimore is too good of an organization not to field a strongly competitive team the year after winning the Super
Bowl. The prideful Ravens lost a lot of leadership and are down key receivers, but
their defense reloaded. It should be quicker and faster with Elvis Dumervil joining
a slimmed down Terrell Suggs and cornerback Lardarius Webb, back from last
year's torn ACL. Von Miller is suspended for six games and the Broncos also could
be missing their best pass defender, Champ Bailey. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS the past
five years in Week 1 games.
DENVER 24-20.

Baltimore at Denver – The Broncos defeated the Ravens, 34-17, on the road
during the regular season last year, but lost 38-35 in overtime at home to Baltimore
in the playoffs.

CFB
East Carolina* over Florida Atlantic by 18
FAU played three quarterbacks vs. Miami – that was by design – and failed to score
a touchdown. It’s hard to envision the Owls keeping pace with the high-octane
Pirates, but FAU under Bo Pelini has covered the spread at a 75 percent clip.
EAST CAROLINA 35-17.