9-8-13

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Dave Price

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers...............TOP PLAY
Carolina Panthers +4.5

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions -5

Oakland Raiders vs Indianapolis Colts
Oakland Raiders +10.5

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HM Sports Handicapping -

7 units NO -3
7 units Pitt -6.5
7 units Giants +3.5
5 units Carolina +3.5

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Jack Jones top play

SEA/CAR Under 45.5

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Phil Steele ( Steele Traps Plays)
Lions -5
Panthers + 3 1/2

Last season 23-15 on these plays

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WNBA Basketball Picks

Phoenix at Atlanta

The Mercury look to build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games against a team with a winning SU record. Phoenix is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 8 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 601-602: Phoenix at Atlanta (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 112.262; Atlanta 112.712 Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 166 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 160 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+5 1/2); Over

Game 603-604: Chicago at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 117.154; Washington 111.441 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 5 1/2; 148 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 2 1/2; 153 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-2 1/2); Under

Game 605-606: Tulsa at San Antonio (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 108.060; San Antonio 113.120 Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 5; 142 Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 1 1/2; 147 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-1 1/2); Under

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

WNBA CHICAGO at WASHINGTON

Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game
200-119 since 1997. ( 62.7% 69.1 units )
25-13 this year. ( 65.8% 10.7 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at ATLANTA

Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) excellent free throw shooting team (>=80%) against an average free throw shooting team (71-76%), in a game involving two average rebounding teams (+/-3 reb/game) after 15+ games
25-10 since 1997. ( 71.4% 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% 0.0 units )

WNBA CHICAGO at WASHINGTON

Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent, with a winning percentage of between 40-49% after 15 or more games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB LA DODGERS at CINCINNATI

Play Against - Road favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (LA DODGERS) with a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start
63-45 over the last 5 seasons. ( 58.3% 35.5 units )
13-13 this year. ( 50.0% 3.2 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY METS at CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND is 24-8 (+15.6 Units) against the money line when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) this season.

The average score was: CLEVELAND (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.7)

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Guaranteed Sports Picks

Colts -10

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Paul Leiner

100* Dodgers -135

100* Colts -10.5

50* Over 56 - Saints/Falcons

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Bob Balfe

Sunday Free Pick
Dodgers -145 over Reds
Kershaw/Bailey

This is a playoff atmosphere and in that I am going to take the better baseball team and one of the best pitchers in the game. The Dodgers are on a mini losing streak and need to break out of that with their ace on the mound as they head into the playoffs. Take L.A

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SportsWagers NFL

Tennessee @ PITTSBURGH
Tennessee +6½ -103 over PITTSBURGH

We’re not even convinced that the Steelers are the better team here. They’re the more popular team by a landslide but they’re now without Heath Miller, Mike Wallace and their new star RB, Le'Veon Bell is out. The Steelers offense completely lost their punch. This is a team that did not score more than 27 points in any game last season and they’re certainly no better this season. Ben Roethlisberger had another down year in 2012 when he suffered a shoulder and rib injury. He also had a knee scope done in the offseason. Big Ben is not getting better, he’s not getting younger and he doesn’t have the same weapons he’s had in the past. When Mike Tomlin took over this team, they were hard-nosed and they were good. Poor drafting, a brutal offensive line, no running game and a deteriorating roster puts the Steelers in the same class as a lot of below .500 teams.
The third season of HC Mike Munchak is under way and still they want to see Jake Locker become the quarterback they thought they were drafting in the first round of 2011. Locker has only played in 16 games over those two seasons thanks to a shoulder injury last year. This is clearly Munchak's team by now and reports are that Locker had a very good camp. The Titans have upgraded in several areas including the offensive line and receivers and they also have a guy named Chris Johnson running the ball. Chris Johnson set himself up to be disappointing after rushing for 2006 yards in just his second season. The reality is that he has been above 4.0 yards per carry each season and has never rushed for fewer than 1047 yards. He gained 1243 in 2012 along with 232 more yards as a receiver and Tennessee has a very capable #2 running back in Shonn Greene. Tennessee’s defense is pretty much unchanged from a year ago but they don’t have a lot of offense to deal with here. This one is likely going to be a street-fight that comes down to the wire. We’re calling the Titans to win outright but these ridiculous points being offered are simply too juicy to pass up on.

Our Pick
Tennessee +6½ -103 (Risking 2.06 units - To Win: 2.00)



Kansas City @ JACKSONVILLE
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 over Kansas City

The Jaguars are projected to be horrible. They have no fans and they are the least followed team in the NFL by a wide margin. Jacksonville is also coming off a 2-14 season. In the June draft, when it was Jacksonville’s turn on the clock, everyone went to their fridge or the bathroom. Nobody cares about this team and nobody talks about them. The players know it and they’ll come into this season with a chip on their shoulder in much the same way the Phoenix Coyotes of the NHL did two years ago when they were expected to move elsewhere and written off for dead before the season even started. Jacksonville is in that same boat. The Jags hired Gus Bradley as head coach after he ran the Seattle defense for the last four seasons. The offense will be run by Jedd Fisch who coached with the Seahawks when he met Bradley and who comes off running innovative offenses in college. His last job was running the University of Miami's offense for the last two years. Fisch inherits a group of players who might actually have more talent than we could know so far and his challenge will be turning high draft picks from the last couple of seasons into productive players. Blaine Gabbert is back for his third season. He missed six games last year with a nerve problem in his arm and was outplayed by journeyman Chad Henne. Gabbert is no lock to get the start here because of an injured thumb but if he can’t go, Chad Henne will and there is not a lot that separates the two anyway. Maurice Jones-Drew comes off a terrible season where he held out then showed up with his tail between his legs and nothing to show for it. And MJD then struggled for a few weeks before getting a Lis Franc injury that cut his season off at week seven. But Jones was a top five back for the three previous seasons and at the age of 28 he still has plenty in the tank. His rehab has gone well and he is expected to be 100% for this first game of the year. How he fits into the new offense is not really an issue - he is by far the best weapon of the offense and he's playing for a major payday next year somewhere else so motivation or lack thereof will not be a factor.
The Chiefs are getting a lot of hype with three Pro Bowl linebackers and a Pro Bowl safety in the forms of Tamba Hali, Justin Houston, Derrick Johnson and safety Eric Berry. They have a stud RB in Jamaal Charles and they also have a proven head coach in Andy Reid and an experienced QB in Alex Smith. On paper it all looks pretty but Kansas City also went 2-14 last season. The Chiefs had the worst QB and WR stats in the entire league in 2012 so how this all meshes is pure speculation. These are two very bad teams looking to bounce back to respectability using all new coaches. It is premature to rely on Alex Smith against a defense that only allowed seven passing touchdowns to visitors last year. It’s also premature to label Reid as the teams’ savior. Reid had mega talent in Philadelphia for years and couldn’t do a damn thing with it. Pro sports history is lined with teams that were projected to challenge for a championship after making significant upgrades in the off-season but did not come close to meeting expectations. This year’s Toronto Blue Jays and Anaheim Angels come to mind, as does the L.A. Lakers and numerous others over the years. The Kansas City Chiefs have that hype surrounding them and even though it’s just Week 1, it’s a sell-high opportunity. Alex Smith is adequate, nothing more. Andy Reid is old-school and old-school coaches rarely do well anymore. Practically the entire betting world is on the Chiefs here and that’s another huge red flag. The oddsmakers were very aware that putting out a small number (line opened at -3) would attract a ton of Kansas City money and it did just that and will attract more. The oddsmakers could have put out a -6 here and not sway a single bet but they didn’t. They made the Chiefs a small, enticing favorite and the public is eating it up. We urge you not to follow suit. This is the trap of the day.



Our Pick
JACKSONVILLE +4 +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	1	1	0.00	+0.18
Season to Date	3	1	0.00	+4.18

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MajorCovers

New Orleans -3

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Cowboys Could Be The Worst Home Wager in All of Sports Betting

Cowboys Stadium (now known as AT&T Stadium) has been a $1 billion “Welcome Mat” for visiting teams, making the Dallas Cowboys the worst home bet in the NFL – maybe even all of sports.

Since opening its doors in 2009, the Cowboys are 17-15 SU with a dreadful 11-21 ATS mark under the “Jerry-Tron”. And no team in the league has warmed up to the Cowboys’ fancy digs more than the New York Giants, who come to Dallas as 3-point road underdogs Sunday night.

New York started the bad voodoo at AT&T Stadium, edging the Cowboys 33-31 in their Grand Opening back in 2009. Giants QB Eli Manning infamously celebrated that win by signing the wall of the visiting locker room, “’33–31’ First win in the new stadium", and is 4-0 SU and ATS (an O/U) in Dallas since.

That bit of black magic, coupled with the fact that visiting teams get pumped up to play in AT&T Stadium, bringing hoards of loyal followers willing to make the trip to football’s new Mecca, has spoiled any home-field advantage the Cowboys would have. According to Mike Perry of Sportsbook, Dallas' home-field advantage ranks in the mid 20s among the 32 NFL teams and is worth 2.5 points on the spread - less than the general 3-point home swing.

"Their fans are generally listless and rarely are rowdy for more than the first series and last five minutes of a game," Perry.

Dallas went a dismal 1-7 ATS as a host last season, its worst home ATS mark during its four seasons at AT&T Stadium. But it’s not all the stadium’s fault.

The under-performing Cowboys are arguably the most popular NFL franchise and, much like odds for the New York Yankees and Notre Dame football, books inflate the line to balance out the action from Dallas faithful, who would blindly bet Big D if they were playing the “Madden All-25 Team”.

That Dallas money moved the spread for Sunday night from a field goal to Cowboys -3.5. However, over the weekend, bettors wise to the home disadvantage in “Jerry’s World” trimmed that half-point hook with action on the Giants.

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - Sunday NFL

4* Best Bet = CAROLINA
3* = New England
3* = New Orleans
2* = Cincinnati
2* = Green Bay

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Larry Ness

over the total play is on Arizona/St. Louis over.