Tweet
Robert Ferringo:
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #461 Kansas City (-3.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
Let me first say that Jacksonville has actually looked OK this preseason. They should definitely improve on last year's two-win debacle. But so should Kansas City. And the Chiefs are just a long way ahead of the Jaguars at the moment in terms of talent and scheme. The Jaguars are going with a rookie coach in his first game on the sideline, while the Chiefs are upgrading massively from Romeo Crennel (one of the worst coaches I've ever seen) to Andy Reid (one of the most successful coaches of the last 20 years). The Chiefs have a proven veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line, some nice skill players, and a defense stacked with top draft picks and Pro Bowlers. The Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert. And not only do they have Blaine Gabbert, but they have a Gabbert that has a broken thumb (on his throwing hand) and hasn't played in a couple weeks. Gabbert is terrible when he's 100 percent. But now he's hurt and out of rhythm (did I mention he's learning a new offense) and going up against a very motivated defense. The Chiefs are a team that I think has a great opportunity to make the playoffs this year. I will take their defense over Jacksonville's rebuilt unit. I will take Alex Smith over Gabbert. I will take the Chiefs skill players over the Jags skill players. And I will lay these points in a game that I see Kansas City winning by double-digits.
3-Unit Play. Take #459 Tampa Bay (-3.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
The Jets are an absolute train wreck. Just an off-the-rails disaster right now. Now, Tampa Bay did not play well - at all - this preseason. Their offensive line is a mess. They can't get a pass rush. And they don't have a lot of depth. But the Bucs are almost playing a different sport than the Jets, who have a new OC, a new DC, a lame duck coach, no skill player talent and a starting quarterback that is in way, way over his head. Geno Smith is not an NFL-caliber quarterback at this point and honestly my only fear here is that just-signed-this-week Brady Quinn comes in when the Jets are down and leads a backdoor comeback. But the Bucs have an excellent array of skill position players, so they will find ways to get points. And the Bucs back seven, led by former Jet Darrelle Revis, is far superior. Every square in the country is putting money down on the Bucs. But that doesn't make it a bad bet. You have to go with Tampa Bay here.
2-Unit Play. Take #464 Chicago (-3) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I was surprised to see Chicago installed as this strong of a favorite in this game. And I've been even more surprised that this line has held firm - I mean, rock solid - as the public throws money on Cincinnati. I thought this game, which is actually really evenly matched, would have a line of about -1. After all, a lot of football people really like the Bengals this year. I have even seen people picking them to go to the Super Bowl, while almost no one has the Bears as anything better than maybe 8-8. That is ridiculous. But that is how the public sees these two teams. And Cincinnati is getting even more recognition thanks to their turn on HBO's Hard Knocks. But if there is one thing that I learned while watching the Bengals on Hard Knocks it is that they are a perfectly average, plain, unexciting team. What I already knew about the Bengals is that they are great at beating terrible teams. Only two of their last 23 wins over the past three seasons have come against teams that finished the season over .500. The Bears won 10 games last year and have shored up their glaring weakness on the offensive line. They have been great in home openers and I think that Chicago's defense will be up to the task here. I think the Bears have more weapons. And I feel like in a very evenly matched game the Bears have more high-level players that can make a play that changes the game. Let's go with the much stronger NFC over the AFC here.
2-Unit Play. Take #466 Cleveland (Pk) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I know that the Dolphins have been kind of a trendy pick to compete with the ?weakened? Patriots heading into this season in the AFC East. But Miami did not impress me at all this preseason and I an absolutely not on the bandwagon. I felt the Dolphins massively overachieved going 7-9 last season. They were actually outscored by 29 points on the year and they finished No. 27 in total offense and No. 21 in total defense. How did the Dolphins respond? By getting rid of their two best offensive players, Reggie Bush and Jake Long, and by getting rid of their best cornerback. I just don't know that Miami is a better team this season. But I am sure that Cleveland is a better team. They finally cut the cord with Pat Shurmur after two dud seasons. They brought in two excellent coordinators in Norv Turner and Ray Horton. And those two guys have breathed life into this roster. Turner is an exceptional offensive mind and Horton got more out of less with his defenses in Arizona the last few years. Cleveland looked sharp in the preseason and they should get a nice boost from the excited home crowd. Cleveland actually beat Miami in 2011 and 2010 and they have dominated this series, going 5-0 ATS since 2004. Trent Richardson is an animal and we're backing the team here with the better running game and better defense. I don't think anyone can say that there is an appreciable difference between Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden this weekend - although Tannehill has much better weapons - and I am wiling to go with momentum in this wager. Cleveland is excited and trending up. Miami is stagnated and has not looked good. We're not laying any points with the home team and I think this is a good value play.
2-Unit Play. Take #468 Carolina (+3.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I am a man on an island when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks. Everyone - and I mean everyone - loves the Seahawks this year. They are on the short list of teams favored to win the Super Bowl. And it seems like every bobblehead I heard make a championship prediction this fall had Seattle either winning the title or at least go to the Super Bowl this season. Well, I'm not buying. And I think that it is going to feel like a punch in the stomach to people when they lose this game outright to a Carolina team that is just one season removed from being a sexy, trendy pick in their own right. Seattle has a lot of situational disadvantages in this game. First, they are a West Coast team playing at a 1 p.m. EST start. That never goes well for the Pacific teams. Second, they are facing a team with revenge. The Seahawks stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 with less than four minutes to play last year en route to a 16-12 win. Carolina should've won that game. Third, Seattle has a huge rivalry game at home next week against San Francisco. They have had that game circled for months. Fourth, Seattle is going to be without a bunch of starters - either due to injury or suspension - on the defensive line. Fifth, the Seahawks have been the single-worst road wager in football for the past seven years. So if you add all that up I think the value is clearly on the home underdog here. The fact that we are going against the public in a major way is just an added bonus. Carolina. Outright.
2-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (+4.5) over St. Louis (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
This was going to be one of my biggest plays of the weekend if the line had stayed at 6.0 where it opened. I think that this is a very evenly matched game and I think that it is one the Cardinals can win. Jeff Fisher is one of those coaches that is phenomenal as an underdog but only mediocre as a favorite. I like this Rams team. They have an excellent foundation and they are building. But they have the youngest roster in the NFL and have a lot of question marks in the passing game on both sides of the ball. Arizona is a team I am watching very carefully this year. I have a feeling they will be a sleeper team in the West and that they could be better than people think. Arizona has a good new coach, reigning Coach of the Year Bruce Arians, and even though Carson Palmer sucks he is still head and shoulders better than what Arizona has been operating with under center the past few seasons. Head and shoulders. St. Louis swept this series last year, giving Arizona a nice revenge angle. Especially when you consider the Cardinals had won seven of the previous eight meetings before 2012. Arizona lost those two games last year despite outgaining the Rams both times. St. Louis caught the first game at home on Thursday Night Football and they were stoked for the primetime chance to knock off the 4-0 Cardinals. The second meeting was ridiculous, as St. Louis won 31-17 thanks to Ryan Lindley - they actually had to start Ryan Lindley at QB, what does that tell you about last year's Cards? - and the four interceptions that Lindley threw, two of which were returned for touchdowns. If Palmer and the rebuilt Arizona offensive line can keep their heads then I think Arizona has a lot of positional advantages. I absolutely hate betting against Sam Bradford, who is the most underrated quarterback in the league. But I think that this could be a low scoring game and I think that the points will hold up. This one comes down to the last four minutes. And when it does we'll be glad we have these points.
1-Unit Play. Take #453 New England (-9.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I don't care who is going to start at quarterback for Buffalo. I only care who is starting at quarterback for the Patriots. Tom Brady is going to absolutely annihilate the Bills defense. Buffalo is still in the middle of switching its defense from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. I honestly think that Brady probably knows the Bills defense - their DC is former Jets coordinator Mike Pettine - better than the Bills defenders do. Buffalo is still without its best safety, Jarius Byrd, and their best corner, Stephon Gilmore, and their linebackers are terrible. So even though the Patriots are starting a bunch of no-names at wide receiver they are still going to move the ball against this rabble. Pettine likes to blitz - a lot - and all that is going to do is expose the back seven. Also, perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of the Patriots right now is their defense. New England looked good this preseason. I think that this has the potential to be their best defense in three or four years. And I think that they will absolutely tool on E.J. Manuel, who is coming back from knee surgery. We've been here before with the Patriots and Bills. The Bills are losers. The Patriots have beaten them 52-28, 49-21, and 34-3 in the last five meetings. They also ?blew? a 17-3 lead and only won 37-31 last November. The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in Orchard Park and 19-8-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. After a long offseason I think that the Patriots are looking forward to making a statement.
1-Unit Play. Take #470 Detroit (-5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I really was just going to ignore all the divisional games this weekend. Its Week 1, these are rivalry games, and there isn't a ton of value betting into numbers with teams that know each other well. But I just kept coming back to the Lions. I just have a feeling that they are going to put a good game together here and hammer the Vikings. Look, Detroit is still one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. They don't have nearly the talent that everyone thinks they do. They play undisciplined, ignorant football. And really they should almost never be trusted laying points. But - BUT - the one thing I know about Detroit is that they go bonkers at home. I mean, these guys can really play like wild, uncaged beasts in their own stadium. And if they get off to a fast start they can put the squeeze on the Vikings in this one. Minnesota is really banged up on defense, with six guys listed on the injury report. They might be without key DT Kevin Williams and have several questions in the secondary. I'm playing that emotion carries the day here for the Lions. The home team is 5-2 SU in this series and Detroit has won three of the last five meetings. I think they play above themselves here and get a win to start the year.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #472 Indianapolis (-2.5) over Oakland (1 p.m.) AND Take #453 New England (-2.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Carolina (+10.5) over Seattle (1 p.m.) AND Take #473 Arizona (+11.5) over St. Louis (4:20 p.m.)
These are both 7-point teasers.
This Week's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.5 Atlanta at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 Seattle at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.0 Oakland at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 52.5 Philadelphia at Washington (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 9)
I also like the 'under' in Chicago and Detroit. I like the first half 'under' in St. Louis and Detroit. And I like the 'over' in New England and Jacksonville. But let's not get greedy.
SUNDAY NFL SELECTIONS
4-Unit Play. Take #461 Kansas City (-3.5) over Jacksonville (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
Let me first say that Jacksonville has actually looked OK this preseason. They should definitely improve on last year's two-win debacle. But so should Kansas City. And the Chiefs are just a long way ahead of the Jaguars at the moment in terms of talent and scheme. The Jaguars are going with a rookie coach in his first game on the sideline, while the Chiefs are upgrading massively from Romeo Crennel (one of the worst coaches I've ever seen) to Andy Reid (one of the most successful coaches of the last 20 years). The Chiefs have a proven veteran quarterback, a solid offensive line, some nice skill players, and a defense stacked with top draft picks and Pro Bowlers. The Jaguars have Blaine Gabbert. And not only do they have Blaine Gabbert, but they have a Gabbert that has a broken thumb (on his throwing hand) and hasn't played in a couple weeks. Gabbert is terrible when he's 100 percent. But now he's hurt and out of rhythm (did I mention he's learning a new offense) and going up against a very motivated defense. The Chiefs are a team that I think has a great opportunity to make the playoffs this year. I will take their defense over Jacksonville's rebuilt unit. I will take Alex Smith over Gabbert. I will take the Chiefs skill players over the Jags skill players. And I will lay these points in a game that I see Kansas City winning by double-digits.
3-Unit Play. Take #459 Tampa Bay (-3.5) over N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
The Jets are an absolute train wreck. Just an off-the-rails disaster right now. Now, Tampa Bay did not play well - at all - this preseason. Their offensive line is a mess. They can't get a pass rush. And they don't have a lot of depth. But the Bucs are almost playing a different sport than the Jets, who have a new OC, a new DC, a lame duck coach, no skill player talent and a starting quarterback that is in way, way over his head. Geno Smith is not an NFL-caliber quarterback at this point and honestly my only fear here is that just-signed-this-week Brady Quinn comes in when the Jets are down and leads a backdoor comeback. But the Bucs have an excellent array of skill position players, so they will find ways to get points. And the Bucs back seven, led by former Jet Darrelle Revis, is far superior. Every square in the country is putting money down on the Bucs. But that doesn't make it a bad bet. You have to go with Tampa Bay here.
2-Unit Play. Take #464 Chicago (-3) over Cincinnati (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I was surprised to see Chicago installed as this strong of a favorite in this game. And I've been even more surprised that this line has held firm - I mean, rock solid - as the public throws money on Cincinnati. I thought this game, which is actually really evenly matched, would have a line of about -1. After all, a lot of football people really like the Bengals this year. I have even seen people picking them to go to the Super Bowl, while almost no one has the Bears as anything better than maybe 8-8. That is ridiculous. But that is how the public sees these two teams. And Cincinnati is getting even more recognition thanks to their turn on HBO's Hard Knocks. But if there is one thing that I learned while watching the Bengals on Hard Knocks it is that they are a perfectly average, plain, unexciting team. What I already knew about the Bengals is that they are great at beating terrible teams. Only two of their last 23 wins over the past three seasons have come against teams that finished the season over .500. The Bears won 10 games last year and have shored up their glaring weakness on the offensive line. They have been great in home openers and I think that Chicago's defense will be up to the task here. I think the Bears have more weapons. And I feel like in a very evenly matched game the Bears have more high-level players that can make a play that changes the game. Let's go with the much stronger NFC over the AFC here.
2-Unit Play. Take #466 Cleveland (Pk) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I know that the Dolphins have been kind of a trendy pick to compete with the ?weakened? Patriots heading into this season in the AFC East. But Miami did not impress me at all this preseason and I an absolutely not on the bandwagon. I felt the Dolphins massively overachieved going 7-9 last season. They were actually outscored by 29 points on the year and they finished No. 27 in total offense and No. 21 in total defense. How did the Dolphins respond? By getting rid of their two best offensive players, Reggie Bush and Jake Long, and by getting rid of their best cornerback. I just don't know that Miami is a better team this season. But I am sure that Cleveland is a better team. They finally cut the cord with Pat Shurmur after two dud seasons. They brought in two excellent coordinators in Norv Turner and Ray Horton. And those two guys have breathed life into this roster. Turner is an exceptional offensive mind and Horton got more out of less with his defenses in Arizona the last few years. Cleveland looked sharp in the preseason and they should get a nice boost from the excited home crowd. Cleveland actually beat Miami in 2011 and 2010 and they have dominated this series, going 5-0 ATS since 2004. Trent Richardson is an animal and we're backing the team here with the better running game and better defense. I don't think anyone can say that there is an appreciable difference between Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden this weekend - although Tannehill has much better weapons - and I am wiling to go with momentum in this wager. Cleveland is excited and trending up. Miami is stagnated and has not looked good. We're not laying any points with the home team and I think this is a good value play.
2-Unit Play. Take #468 Carolina (+3.5) over Seattle (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I am a man on an island when it comes to the Seattle Seahawks. Everyone - and I mean everyone - loves the Seahawks this year. They are on the short list of teams favored to win the Super Bowl. And it seems like every bobblehead I heard make a championship prediction this fall had Seattle either winning the title or at least go to the Super Bowl this season. Well, I'm not buying. And I think that it is going to feel like a punch in the stomach to people when they lose this game outright to a Carolina team that is just one season removed from being a sexy, trendy pick in their own right. Seattle has a lot of situational disadvantages in this game. First, they are a West Coast team playing at a 1 p.m. EST start. That never goes well for the Pacific teams. Second, they are facing a team with revenge. The Seahawks stopped Carolina on a 4th-and-1 with less than four minutes to play last year en route to a 16-12 win. Carolina should've won that game. Third, Seattle has a huge rivalry game at home next week against San Francisco. They have had that game circled for months. Fourth, Seattle is going to be without a bunch of starters - either due to injury or suspension - on the defensive line. Fifth, the Seahawks have been the single-worst road wager in football for the past seven years. So if you add all that up I think the value is clearly on the home underdog here. The fact that we are going against the public in a major way is just an added bonus. Carolina. Outright.
2-Unit Play. Take #473 Arizona (+4.5) over St. Louis (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
This was going to be one of my biggest plays of the weekend if the line had stayed at 6.0 where it opened. I think that this is a very evenly matched game and I think that it is one the Cardinals can win. Jeff Fisher is one of those coaches that is phenomenal as an underdog but only mediocre as a favorite. I like this Rams team. They have an excellent foundation and they are building. But they have the youngest roster in the NFL and have a lot of question marks in the passing game on both sides of the ball. Arizona is a team I am watching very carefully this year. I have a feeling they will be a sleeper team in the West and that they could be better than people think. Arizona has a good new coach, reigning Coach of the Year Bruce Arians, and even though Carson Palmer sucks he is still head and shoulders better than what Arizona has been operating with under center the past few seasons. Head and shoulders. St. Louis swept this series last year, giving Arizona a nice revenge angle. Especially when you consider the Cardinals had won seven of the previous eight meetings before 2012. Arizona lost those two games last year despite outgaining the Rams both times. St. Louis caught the first game at home on Thursday Night Football and they were stoked for the primetime chance to knock off the 4-0 Cardinals. The second meeting was ridiculous, as St. Louis won 31-17 thanks to Ryan Lindley - they actually had to start Ryan Lindley at QB, what does that tell you about last year's Cards? - and the four interceptions that Lindley threw, two of which were returned for touchdowns. If Palmer and the rebuilt Arizona offensive line can keep their heads then I think Arizona has a lot of positional advantages. I absolutely hate betting against Sam Bradford, who is the most underrated quarterback in the league. But I think that this could be a low scoring game and I think that the points will hold up. This one comes down to the last four minutes. And when it does we'll be glad we have these points.
1-Unit Play. Take #453 New England (-9.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I don't care who is going to start at quarterback for Buffalo. I only care who is starting at quarterback for the Patriots. Tom Brady is going to absolutely annihilate the Bills defense. Buffalo is still in the middle of switching its defense from a 4-3 base to a 3-4. I honestly think that Brady probably knows the Bills defense - their DC is former Jets coordinator Mike Pettine - better than the Bills defenders do. Buffalo is still without its best safety, Jarius Byrd, and their best corner, Stephon Gilmore, and their linebackers are terrible. So even though the Patriots are starting a bunch of no-names at wide receiver they are still going to move the ball against this rabble. Pettine likes to blitz - a lot - and all that is going to do is expose the back seven. Also, perhaps the most underappreciated aspect of the Patriots right now is their defense. New England looked good this preseason. I think that this has the potential to be their best defense in three or four years. And I think that they will absolutely tool on E.J. Manuel, who is coming back from knee surgery. We've been here before with the Patriots and Bills. The Bills are losers. The Patriots have beaten them 52-28, 49-21, and 34-3 in the last five meetings. They also ?blew? a 17-3 lead and only won 37-31 last November. The Patriots are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games in Orchard Park and 19-8-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings. After a long offseason I think that the Patriots are looking forward to making a statement.
1-Unit Play. Take #470 Detroit (-5) over Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
I really was just going to ignore all the divisional games this weekend. Its Week 1, these are rivalry games, and there isn't a ton of value betting into numbers with teams that know each other well. But I just kept coming back to the Lions. I just have a feeling that they are going to put a good game together here and hammer the Vikings. Look, Detroit is still one of the most overrated teams in the NFL. They don't have nearly the talent that everyone thinks they do. They play undisciplined, ignorant football. And really they should almost never be trusted laying points. But - BUT - the one thing I know about Detroit is that they go bonkers at home. I mean, these guys can really play like wild, uncaged beasts in their own stadium. And if they get off to a fast start they can put the squeeze on the Vikings in this one. Minnesota is really banged up on defense, with six guys listed on the injury report. They might be without key DT Kevin Williams and have several questions in the secondary. I'm playing that emotion carries the day here for the Lions. The home team is 5-2 SU in this series and Detroit has won three of the last five meetings. I think they play above themselves here and get a win to start the year.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #472 Indianapolis (-2.5) over Oakland (1 p.m.) AND Take #453 New England (-2.5) over Buffalo (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #468 Carolina (+10.5) over Seattle (1 p.m.) AND Take #473 Arizona (+11.5) over St. Louis (4:20 p.m.)
These are both 7-point teasers.
This Week's Totals
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 54.5 Atlanta at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 45.5 Seattle at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 47.0 Oakland at Indianapolis (1 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 52.5 Philadelphia at Washington (7 p.m., Monday, Sept. 9)
I also like the 'under' in Chicago and Detroit. I like the first half 'under' in St. Louis and Detroit. And I like the 'over' in New England and Jacksonville. But let's not get greedy.
Comment