9-9-13

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The Sports Capper Football

MONDAY
1000* Play Philadelphia +3.5 over Washington (NFL Monday Night Parlay)
Washington has lost 47 of the last 75 games against the spread when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have also lost 26 of the last 37 home games against the spread when playing in the 1st month of the season.


1000* Play Houston -3.5 over San Diego (NFL Monday Night Parlay)
Houston has covered the spread in 19 of the last 27 games vs. AFC Conference Opponents and they have also covered the spread in 16 of the last 24 games when playing as a favorite.Houston has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games when playing in the 1st month of the season and they have covered the spread in 21 of the last 27 games when playing on a natural grass field.

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PAUL LEINER

100* Over 52.5 - Redskins/Eagles

50* Indians -120

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB DETROIT at CHI WHITE SOX

Play On - Home teams (CHI WHITE SOX) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better on the season (AL) against opponent with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.50 or better on the season (AL)
178-102 over the last 5 seasons. ( 63.6% 61.7 units )
37-24 this year. ( 60.7% 7.9 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB NY YANKEES at BALTIMORE

BALTIMORE is 32-15 (+20.5 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.300 to 1.400 over the last 2 seasons.

The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.9)

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KYLE HUNTER

3* Atlanta -1.5 over Miami

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Hondo

Cubs

Redskins-Best Bet
Chargers

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Gold Sheet LTS

1 Philadelphia OVER

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EAGLE EYE----RANDY ROSE
Your Pick: Houston Texans -3.5 (-110)

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BeatYourBookie
MLB Baseball Plays for Monday

10* Play Atlanta -150 over Miami (MLB TOP PLAY)
7:10 PM EST
Atlanta is 13-3 when playing on a Monday this season
Atlanta is 39-15 when playing as a favorite of -150 or higher


10* Play Cincinnati -180 over Chicago Cubs (MLB TOP PLAY)
7:10 PM EST
Chicago is 20-38 vs. division opponents this season
Chicago is 40-62 vs. right-handed starting pitchers this season

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Stephen Nover

3* Houston (NFL)

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CHASE DIAMOND

8* KILLER CLUB

Money Line: Texas-180

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Beathespread FREE MLB Play!
ANGELS -156

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Cappers Advantage - BigEast
Houston -3.5

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Teddy Covers

10* Texans

10* Orioles over

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Sportswagers NFL

Today's Free Picks for Sep 09, 2013





Philadelphia @ WASHINGTON
Philadelphia +3½ -105 over WASHINGTON

The Redskins swept the Eagles last year, winning 31-6 at home and later 27-20 in Philadelphia in week Week 16. Remember, this is the NFC East where rivalries are intense and where it’s rare for one team to dominate another in back-to-back seasons. The Redskins welcome back Robert Griffin III after he tore up his knee and rehabbed to get back for this week. The Redskins had a very successful 2012 season with a 10-6 finish and a NFC East title. That was won on the backs of both RG3 and the surprising Alfred Morris who literally jumped out of the depth charts in week one to become one of the better running backs in the league. The problem is that RG3 could be very rusty because he did not play in the preseason and that’s rather significant. Furthermore, it’s not the Redskins offense that is a problem, it’s keeping the opposition from moving the chains and scoring points that is ultimately going to be the ‘Skins downfall this year. Washington paid a hefty price for RG3, giving up first round picks in the draft until 2015 and that means they’ll enter this season older, slower and with a lack of talent, outside of RG3, at the skilled positions. Last season, it was Philly that was projected to do well and Washington to struggle but this season we have a role reversal and that is a good position to be in when accepting points on Monday Night Football.


This is the first time we get to see what the Chip Kelly hype is all about. Andy Reid has finally left and a new era in Philly has started. They managed to grab the most coveted college coach in Chip Kelly who commanded a ridiculously productive offense in Oregon. Unfortunately the team lost Jeremy Maclin in July and with him their primary receiver. But this hurry-up, run-oriented scheme should be tailored made for the backfield talent and Michael Vick is getting yet another second chance at being a starter. Vick did not play against the Redskins last year and Nick Foles was held to just one passing score in two games. Chip Kelly utilizing LeSean McCoy is a scary thought and McCoy, who looked great in camp, figures to get a ton of touches here against a weak Washington defense. Look for Kelly to also utilize the passing game. Chip Kelly’s plan is to try and run 70+ plays from scrimmage and test the conditioning of the Redskins in the first game. Whether or not he’s successful remains to be seen but one thing we know for sure is that Philly is a complete enigma. The Eagles have completely new systems in place, offensively, defensively and on special teams. What that means is that the ‘Skins have nothing to go on in terms of preparation. You simply can’t prepare for something you’ve never seen before and that’s precisely what Kelly brings to the table. That makes the Eagles a very interesting proposition here. The Eagles may fall flat on their faces here but they could also thrive with some crazy offensive numbers and that possibility has us leaning their way.


Our Pick
Philadelphia +3½ -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)



Houston @ SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO +5 -105 over Houston

Line opened at Houston -3½. It’s up to 4, 4½ or even 5 at some places and will probably be as high as 6 by 10:00 PM tonight. This is the last game of the week. It’s also the second game of tonight’s Monday Night double-header, meaning the Texans will be the second or third part of all two and three-game parlays. Do you actually think the oddsmakers did not anticipate this heavy lean on the visitor? Of course they did. Monday Night Football is lined with mismatches that were supposed to be easy money but failed miserably. This one has that stench to it. There is no sense in breaking down this matchup. NFL football is bigger than it’s ever been. Hour after hour after hour you can turn on the TV or radio and hear so called experts breaking down these games to precisely how they are supposed to turn out. Indy was supposed to whack the Raiders, New England was a cinch to defeat the Bills. Tampa was going to destroy the Jets, etc, etc, etc.
We all know that the Chargers have been a mess of mistake filled football games, bad coaching, underachievers and just a pathetic football team to wager on. The oddsmakers know that too. We’re not going to try and make a case for the Chargers because it’s near impossible. The Texans, coming off a 12-4 year and winning the AFC South are supposed to go into San Diego tonight and steamroll over this San Diego team that virtually brings the same players as last year, minus Danario Alexander. Philip Rivers returns for his tenth NFL season but comes off his worst year since 2007. The Chargers are learning a new offense by OC Ken Whisenhunt but they have no players that stand out. The Texans sport a great rushing defense and the Chargers are busy installing a new offensive scheme. The Texans still have J. J. Watt and Brian Cushing and added Ed Reed to the secondary. Against a below average team this defense should be dominating. So yeah, on paper, the Texans are supposed to come in here and blow away the Chargers but we’ve been doing this too long to not recognize something that smells fishy. You’re very likely going to bet the Texans tonight and we could not blame you for doing so. However, this is the biggest public play of the week and that’s a side that’s loses far too often for us to get on board with. You’ve been warned.


Our Pick
SAN DIEGO +5 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)

Yesterday	2	2	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	3	3	0.00	+0.18
Season to Date	5	3	0.00	+4.18

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Sportswagers MLB

Today's Free Picks for Sep 09, 2013





Kansas City @ CLEVELAND
Kansas City +100 over CLEVELAND

The Indians are two games back in the Wild Card race while the Royals are 3½-games back, thus setting up this crucial series. Ubaldo Jimenez is enjoying a bit of a rebound season this year, at least in relation to how terrible he was last year. His ERA is down under 4.00, and while he still walks too many, his dominance has increased to 9 K’s per 9 innings, which would be a career best. Interestingly, Jimenez's velocity has continued its slow decline from the mid-90s a few years ago. The difference, at least this year, appears to be an increased reliance on his slider. Jimenez has been hot in the last month or so (35 IP, 41/15 K/BB since the beginning of August). However, in those five August starts, Jimenez faced the Braves, A’s, Twins, Angels and Marlins. What that group has in common is that they are among the league leaders in striking out. Atlanta, for instance has struck out more than any team in baseball besides the Astros and the Twinkies are just four strikeouts behind them. As a result, Jimenez’s K rate over the past month is extremely skewed and that’s the real key here. You see, the Royals have struck out the least amount of times in MLB and that means that Jimenez is not going to get these guys to swing at pitches way out of the zone. In other words, he’s likely to be behind in the count more than ahead and that’s when he prone to being whacked.
Improved control and dominance against lefties has driven Ervin R. Santana. Kansas City rebuilt their rotation in the offseason with the big acquisition being James Shields but Santana has more than held his own. While his record is only 8-8, the rest of his numbers have been impressive. Santana’s xERA shows that there is real skills growth here. He’s walking fewer batters resulting in control that hasn’t been this good since 2008. Santana’s groundball % is also creeping up. It was in the mid-30% range earlier in his career, but it’s gone up sharply the past three years to a career high of 47% this season. He’s also dominating lefties. While his career OPS against them is .772, he’s holding them to .603 in 2013. The 30-year-old Santana is peaking at the right time. He’s a free agent at the end of this season and with many eyes on this series, this start becomes one of Santana’s most important of the year in terms of his potential contract and whether or not the Royals win this important series. Money is a huge motivating factor.


Our Pick
Kansas City +100 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.00)



Pittsburgh @ TEXAS
Pittsburgh +163 over TEXAS

Yu Darvish is wickedly good. This guy has the best road skills in MLB and it’s not even close. Overall, Darvish has an amazing 240 K’s in 180 innings but all those pitches and innings take a toll. Rangers’ manager, Ron Washington has been known to burn out pitchers. The list of pitcher’s he’s burned out over the years is a long one and he’s also been known to really burn them out over the course of a year. It’s probably the main reason why the Rangers make the playoffs every season but subsequently get knocked out early. Darvish’s pitch count is rarely under 113 a game. Even with five and six runs leads, Ron Washington will keep sending him out there until his tank is empty and the effects are beginning to show. Darvish has been taken yard four times over his past two starts in Oakland and at home to the Twinkies. In his last start, he also walked six batters. Overall, the Rangers have lost Darvish’s last four starts to Oakland, Minnesota, the White Sox and Seattle and his ERA over that span was 4.62. It would not surprise one bit to see him lose another one here.
Gerrit Cole has flashed his rotation-anchor upside since being called up by the Pirates. Cole’s 96 mph average four-seam fastball and 10% swinging K rate give him more strikeout upside than he has shown and his off speed stuff has been nothing short of dominating. Cole has thrown his change-up and curveball 232 times and batters have managed only two extra-base hits against those pitches. Don't be surprised if he becomes Pittsburgh’s best pitcher in September, into the playoffs and all of next season. Aside from his outstanding arsenal of pitches, Cole has a 50% groundball rate and his control is improving with each outing. Over his past 25 innings, Cole has walked just four batters while whiffing 19. Geritt Cole is coming on strong while Yu Darvish is fading and the price here makes this one even more appealing.


Our Pick
Pittsburgh +163 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.26)

Yesterday	0	0	0.00	0.00
Last 30 Days	29	46	0.00	-21.39
Season to Date	207	214	0.00	+64.78