9-13-13

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Tiger-Cats at Stampeders: What bettors need to know

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Calgary Stampeders (-6, 57)

The Calgary Stampeders are playing their best football of the season, riding a three-game winning streak and tied for the West Division lead after winning back-to-back contests against the rival Edmonton Eskimos. The Stampeders will host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Friday at McMahon Stadium, where they are 4-0. Calgary third-string quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell has taken full advantage of the opportunity afforded him by injuries to Drew Tate and Kevin Glenn, completing 70-of-98 passes for 850 yards, with eight touchdowns and only one interception.

Quarterback Henry Burris has the Tiger-Cats on a roll. Hamilton has won four of its last five games after splitting a home-and-home series with the BC Lions and Burris leads the league with 3,181 passing yards - 612 more than any other quarterback. Burris, named offensive player of the week after throwing four touchdown passes against the Lions, is 217 yards away from reaching 50,000 in his career and should have no problem reaching it with a healthy receiving corps that includes wide receivers Greg Ellingson, Bakari Grant and Andy Fantuz

TV: 9 p.m. ET, TSN

LINE: Calgary opened as a 6.5-point favorite and has been bet down to -6. The total has moved from 56 to 57 points.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 80s with clear skies and winds blowing NNW as high as 15 mph.

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (5-5, 5-5 ATS): Coach Kent Austin praised Hamilton’s defensive effort following its Week 11 victory over BC, when Lions quarterback Travis Lulay was sacked three times and faced pressure all game. “He’s unbelievably tough, so we knew we weren’t going to get a lot of sacks, but we needed to pressure him, hit him, hurry him, and we were able to do that tonight,” Austin said. Linebacker Brandon Isaac and defensive lineman Eric Norwood each recorded their first sacks in the contest, while defensive lineman Brandon Boudreaux leads the team with four.

ABOUT THE STAMPEDERS (8-2, 7-3 ATS): Running back Jon Cornish was named Canadian player of the week for the third time in 2013 after recording 177 yards from scrimmage against the Eskimos. Cornish is second in the league with 940 rushing yards and should eclipse his career-high of 1,457 if he stays healthy. Mitchell took over as Calgary’s starting quarterback for the second time this season after Glenn suffered a knee injury in the Labour Day Classic. Tate remains out indefinitely while continuing to battle inflammation in his elbow.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Calgary.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Stampeders are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Tiger-Cats are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Calgary K Rene Paredes has made 31-of-32 field goals and leads the league with 122 kicking points.

2. Hamilton RB C.J. Gable has a team-leading 355 rushing yards and 689 yards from scrimmage despite missing time with injuries.

3. The Tiger-Cats are 2-4 against West Division opponents; Calgary is 4-0 against the East.

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Air Force at Boise State: What bettors need to know

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos (-23.5, 57)

Boise State's dalliance with the Top 25 may have been brief, but the Broncos showed last week that they're eager to return. Fresh off a 49-point drubbing of Tennessee-Martin, head coach Chris Petersen's club looks to continue its march toward a Mountain West Conference title as it entertains the Air Force Falcons on Friday night. Air Force had to do without starting quarterback Kale Pearson last time out, and it showed as the Falcons were thumped 52-20 by Utah State.

Air Force head coach Troy Calhoun has already made peace with the fact that Peterson, who suffered a knee in the season-opening 38-13 victory over Colgate, likely won't return against the Broncos. That should spell concern for a Falcons squad that struggled to fashion any sort of aerial attack against the Aggies last weekend. Boise State had no such trouble against Tennessee-Martin, as quarterback Joe Southwick racked up 234 passing yards and five touchdowns.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Boise State has been a steady 23.5-point favorite throughout the week. The total has dropped slightly from 57.5 to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing S as high as 11 mph.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (1-1, 0-2 ATS): Calhoun was succinct when explaining his team's loss, which was punctuated by a stretch in which Utah State scored on four straight series to effectively put the game away. "I think we got thumped in every possible way in this game," Calhoun told the Air Force News Service. "In the first half, we had a chance to make some plays that we didn't make." The Falcons boast a potent running game that has averaged better than 285 yards per game - good for 18th in the nation - and should excel in the triple-option offense against a Boise State team that has struggled with run defense.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (1-1, 1-1 ATS): Last weekend's win was critical in helping restore the confidence of a Broncos team that plummeted out of the rankings following a 38-6 loss to the Washington Huskies in the season opener - the program's worst defeat since 2005. The Boise State defense still surrendered 362 total yards to Tennessee-Martin and has allowed an average of 210 rushing yards through the first two games - and Petersen blames tackling troubles. "You create space, you're going to miss tackles. We have to get more guys to the point of attack. One guy is not going to make the tackle in space."

TRENDS:

* Air Force is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games.
* The over is 6-1 in the Falcons' last seven September games.
* Boise State is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 conference games.
* The under is 5-2 in the Broncos' last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos are 80-4 at home since 2000.

2. Air Force is 12-10 in Mountain West road games under Calhoun.

3. Boise State prevailed 37-26 in the only previous meeting between the teams back in 2011.

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

Boise State* over Air Force by 20
In their last three games vs. D-1 opponents, the flimsy AFA “D” allowed 1683
yards and 133 points. But the Flyboys won’t have to deal with charismatic Chuckie
Keeton this week and the Broncos expunged their demons at the expense of UTMartin.
BOISE STATE 37-17.

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SPORTS REPORTER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

*BOISE STATE over AIR FORCE by 18
The Broncos of Boise State have not been impressive against option attacks, the
kind Air Force deploys. They were all-out to beat New Mexico last season, not
coming close to covering the spread. They beat Air Force by only 11 points in 2011
(also not covering), and Air Force out-clocked them 36:18 to 23:42 despite the
presence of now-NFL talents Kellen Moore and Doug Martin as the Boise QB and
RB. The Mountain West Conference forced them to get rid of the blue-on-blue eyeball nightmare (blue unis, blue home field), and now opponents are seeing things
in a clearer perspective against them. They have failed to cover five of their last
seven games overall, including the last three conference home games they played
last season.
BOISE STATE, 34-16.

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POWER PLAYS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

AIR FORCE vs BOISE ST.
Since joining the MW the Broncos are just 3-10 ATS on the blue turf as a HF. The Falcons come into this matchup after a stinging loss at the hands of Utah St.
NO PLAY: BOISE ST 36 AIR FORCE 16

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POINTWISE

COLLEGIATE FOOTBALL

BOISE STATE 45 - Air Force 13 - (8:00 - ESPN) -- Falcs, & their "D" (34 ppg 13
of last 14 LGs) came in nicely in 52-20 loss to UtahSt. QB Awini not typical
productive 'Force leader (41 RYs LW). Won't do enuff to keep 'em in vs Broncs,
who bounced back from their worst loss in 8 yrs, with Southwick's tossing 5 TDs

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK

Air Force is 17-5 SU and 18-3 ATS in road openers since 1991, including 15-1 ATS as a dog.

BOISE ST over Air Force by 17
Despite last week’s 63-14 destruction of lowly Tennessee-Martin, Boise is
still feeling blue – and not in a good way – about its 1-1 start. The Broncos’
stunning 38-6 season-opening debacle against Washington, their worst
loss since a 48-13 whipping at Georgia in 2005, seriously damaged the
credibility of a program that had lost only 5 games in the previous fi ve
seasons. Speaking of damage, the Flyboys let us down hard as a 4* Best
Bet call with their uncharacteristically lethargic effort against Utah State
last week, losing 52-20. Troy Calhoun’s most humbling home loss in 6-plus
seasons at the Academy saw the Falcons rush for only 162 yards (3.3 YPC)
while the defense crashed and burned beneath a 577-yard onslaught. The
combination of that dreadful performance with Boise’s urgent need to
re-establish themselves as a national contender has driven this line way
out of whack. We’re not buying, not with the Broncos going 0-4 ATS in
the second of back-to-back homers, 1-11 ATS as conference chalk of 15
or more points, and 1-3 ATS in weekday games on the blue rug. Those are
pretty lousy numbers for a team that has met with as much ATS success as
Boise State and this year’s offense is far from hitting on all cylinders (won
the stats by just over 100 yards against Tenn-Martin). Our database backs
the Force, noting that military dogs of 20 or more points are 70-35-4 ATS,
plus the Falcons have been money in the bank playing Game Three, going
10-2 ATS.

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THE GOLD SHEET

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

*BOISE ST. 38- Air Force 23—Intelligence reports from the MW indicate that
the clandestine Troy Calhoun battle plan at AFA had been to spot strong-armed
soph QB Jaleel Awini with traditional option plot Kale Pearson to provide a
wicked change-of-pace. Now, Pearson’s knee injury has placed the “O” burden
upon Awini. Still, AFA a better alternative as dog than Boise bunch that lacks
the dynamism of its better past editions while losing its old blue-carpet spread
magic (just 2-10 last 12 as home chalk vs. FBS). CABLE TV—ESPN

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WINNING POINTS

BASEBALL SELECTIONS

BEGINNING FRIDAY SEPTEMBER 13

Cincinnati at Milwaukee (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
Barring the unlikely, all three NL Central contenders will certainly
make the post-season, though there’s a tight race underway for the
division title.The Brewers have been miserable vs.lefthanders in 2013
(13-27, -$1445) and they’ll have to contend with Tony Cingrani (2.63
ERA in 17 starts), who recently returned to the rotation following a
stint on the DL.
BEST BET: Cingrani.

Kansas City at Detroit (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Royals have turned a nice profit vs.their division foe (+$550) and
their top ranked pitching staff (3.53 ERA, best in the AL) looks like a
terrific value as underdogs here at Comerica. The Tigers dropped a
pair to KC southpaws last week, adding to their shocking losses in
that situation this year (-$1770).
BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. the Tigers.

Baltimore at Toronto (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Blue Jays have been playing excellent baseball in recent days (8-
2, +$725 last 10 days, averaging 5.3 runs per game with a 2.56 ERA
among starters).The Orioles have plenty of punch, but the pitching is
still sub-par (4.28 team ERA) so the home team looks good at the
right price.
BEST BET: Blue Jays at -115 or less

N.Y.Yankees at Boston (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The Red Sox have brutalized the Yankees in 2013 (10-6, +$265), taking 3 out of 4 just last weekend in the Bronx.They’ve been victorious
in 9 of their last 12 (+$510) and their offense (.277 BA, 5.2 runs per
game) can take advantage of a New York rotation that looks very vulnerable at the moment (5.82 ERA last 10 days).Boston is a big moneymaker at Fenway this year (+$1000).
BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.

Oakland at Texas (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
These teams have been trading first place in the AL West back and
forth all season long, but the A’s have the hot hand at the moment (9-
3, +$560 in their last 12).The Rangers have been unsuccessful in day
games (only 18-21, -$1040) so take a shot with the visitor in the two
afternoon contests.
BEST BET: Athletics in day games.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota (3) 13th, 14th, 15th
The floundering Rays (3-8, -$760 in their last 11) have lost sight of
Boston in the AL East race,and could use a break in order to hold onto
a wildcard slot.A visit to Target Field could be helpful. Minnesota is
just 1-4 in head to head play with Tampa Bay (-$230) and they’ve been
a disaster in this ballpark all season (-$920). If the price is reasonable
we’ll go with the visitor.
BEST BET: Rays at -140 or less.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Air Force's ground-attack heads to Boise Friday
by Nick Bracken

Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Boise State -23.5, Total: 57.5

Air Force will head to the blue turf on Friday to face heavily favored Boise State.

While Air Force is coming off a dreadful 32-point loss to MWC foe Utah State, Boise State is coming off a 63-14 rebound win after a very disappointing loss to Washington in the season opener. The Falcons (0-2 ATS) look to keep their ground-and-pound running game going Friday. Air Force averages just 90 yards passing a game compared to 285 yards on the ground, which is good for 18th in the country. The Broncos have showed porous run defense (208 YPG), which must change in order to stop the relentless Air Force ground game. Boise and Air Force have only met once in the past 20 years in 2011 when the Broncos ousted the Falcons 37-26 in a much closer game than people expected. Air Force used its run game to keep it close by rushing for 264 yards and dominated the time of possession, with more than 36 minutes to less than 24 for the Broncos. Air Force will have to put last weeks' blowout loss behind them, which they have not been good at in the past, with a miserable 1-13 ATS mark coming off a loss of 21+ points to a conference rival. Air Force overall is just 3-12 ATS over the past two years. Since Chris Petersen has taken over the Broncos, they have become a perennial powerhouse and are a very profitable 51-37 ATS overall, including 26-14 ATS in the first half of the season.

Air Force junior Jonathan Lee has been dynamic, rushing for 149 yards on just 18 carries for the year. Alongside Lee is Broam Hart who has 125 yards of his own on 25 carries. Regardless of the run game, the Falcons will have no shot Friday if they don't show up defensively like last week against Utah State when they allowed 577 total yards and 52 points. The famous blue turf also may be a problem for the Falcons on Friday. You would think Air Force's ground game would flourish on turf, but the Falcons are just 4-10 ATS when playing on the foreign substance. Air Force hasn't always been known to get off to great starts either, going 2-6 ATS in September.

The Broncos come into Friday night still trying to forget about their upset loss to Washington in the season opener. In that defeat to the Huskies, Boise State was completely dominated, allowing a total of 592 yards and letting Washington convert 11-of-15 third downs. Senior QB Joe Southwick played very well last week, tossing five touchdowns with no picks. He didn't fare as well against the much tougher Huskies defense, which he did not find the end zone against, but did find the opposing team once. Jay Ajayi will look to make Southwick's life easier by getting an effective run game going. Ajayi has averaged just 4.6 yards a carry this year, which has been disappointing, compared to his 6.7 YPC average last year. Boise State, once the Gonzaga of college football, has become a household name with big expectations. This has brought on large point spreads, which the Broncos have been bad at covering. Boise is 1-6 ATS in the past seven games when the spread is 21.5 to 30 points. The well-known blue turf hasn't been as kind as expected ATS either. The Broncos are just 4-10 ATS in home games since the start of 2011.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Nationals on Thursday and likes the Red Sox on Friday.

The deficit is 1243 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's MLB American League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Friday's American League games:

Cleveland Indians at Chicago White Sox (+120, 8)

Cold pitching stat: White Sox right-hander Hector Santiago was torched for five runs on seven hits over 2 1/3 innings in his previous encounter against the Indians back on June 28.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Cleveland roster are hitting .283/.421/.348 in 46 combined at-bats against Santiago.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 5-0 in Santiago's last five starts.

Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays (+107, 9.5)

Cold pitching stat: Orioles right-hander Jason Hammel is 0-5 in his last 11 outings, including a loss and a no-decision in his last two games against Toronto.

Hot batting stat: Blue Jays SS Jose Reyes is a .357 career hitter in 14 at-bats against Hammel.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with scattered clouds. Wind will blow in from left field at 14 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.

Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-166, 8)

Hot pitching stat: Tigers right-hander Justin Verlander is 15-5 with a 2.80 ERA and 176 strikeouts in 189 1/3 career innings against Kansas City.

Hot batting stat: Kansas City DH/1B Billy Butler is hitting .323 since the All-Star break, more than 50 points higher than his first-half mark.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right-center field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Kansas City is just 3-11 in its last 14 games at Comerica Park.

New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Yankees right-hander Hiroki Kuroda is 0-3 with a 6.52 ERA over his last five outings, including a loss and a no-decision in two starts against Boston over that stretch.

Hot batting stat: Red Sox DH David Ortiz is a .313 career hitter with 39 homers and 136 RBIs in 703 at-bats versus New York.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: Boston is 6-2 in right-hander John Lackey's last eight starts against the Yankees.

Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers (-133, 9)

Cold pitching stat: Rangers left-hander Derek Holland has dropped back-to-back starts, surrendering 12 runs over 10 1/3 combined innings against Oakland and the Los Angeles Angels.

Hot batting stat: Oakland scored 26 runs in the final two games of its series with the Minnesota Twins, winning both with ease.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-90s with a 30 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 8-1 in Holland's last nine Friday starts.

Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Astros starter Dallas Keuchel gave up five earned runs and 10 hits in just 3 1/3 innings of work in his last start. The Astros were 7-5 losers to the Oakland A's in that Sept. 6 matchup.

Cold batting stat: Houston OF Chris Carter is 1-for-13 with seven strikeouts lifetime against Angels starter Jason Vargas.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to left-center field at 7 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 4-1 in Vargas' last five road starts.

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins (+141, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Rays right-hander Chris Archer is 3-4 with a 3.91 ERA on the road compared to 5-3, 2.67 at Tropicana Field.

Hot batting stat: Tampa Bay 2B Kelly Johnson is 9-for-25 with five home runs and 10 RBIs in his career against Twins starter Kevin Correia.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under clear skies. Wind will blow from right to left field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: Tampa has 20 of the last 26 head-to-head meetings.


** Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starters as of 10:23 p.m. ET Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Friday's MLB National League betting cheat sheet

Check out our quick-hitting betting notes for Friday's National League games:

Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates (-174, 7.5)

Cold pitching stat: Pirates right-hander Charlie Morton is 2-4 with a 5.80 ERA in seven career starts against the Cubs.

Hot batting stat: Members of the Chicago roster are a combined 20-for-43 with four doubles and two triples versus Morton.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 8 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 14-4 in Morton's last 18 home starts

Philadelphia Phillies at Washington Nationals (-241, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg is just 5-4 but has a 1.55 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 93 home innings.

Hot batting stat: Washington 3B Ryan Zimmerman has been red-hot in September, hitting seven home runs in 10 games so far this month.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 11 mph.

Key betting note: Philadelphia is 3-8 in starter Kyle Kendrick's last 11 meetings with the Nationals.

Miami Marlins at New York Mets (OFF, OFF)

Cold pitching stat: Mets right-hander Jonathon Niese was roughed up in his last outing, surrendering six runs on nine hits over six innings in a 9-4 loss to the Cleveland Indians.

Hot batting stat: Marlins 3B Placido Polanco is a .343 career hitter with seven RBIs in 35 at-bats against Niese.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 13 mph.

Key betting note: New York is 2-7 in Niese's last nine home starts.

San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-143, 8)

Cold pitching stat: Padres right-hander Ian Kennedy has been dreadful away from his home park, going 1-5 with a 5.34 ERA in 15 road starts.

Hot batting stat: Braves 1B Freddie Freeman is 3-for-5 with a homer and seven RBIs lifetime against Kennedy.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 9 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 10-1-1 in San Diego's last 12 Friday games.

Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers (+134, 7.5)

Hot pitching stat: Reds right-hander Mat Latos has surrendered more than three runs just once in his last 10 outings.

Hot batting stat: Cincinnati SS Zack Cosart is batting .292 in the second half after hitting at a .236 clip prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under clear skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 7-1-1 in Latos' last nine starts.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks (-154, 8.5)

Hot pitching stat: Diamondbacks right-hander Brandon McCarthy was sensational last time out against San Francisco, allowing one run on six hits over eight innings en route to a 2-1 victory.

Cold batting stat: After hitting .332 with 16 homers and 52 RBIs in 232 first-half at-bats, Rockies SS Troy Tulowitzki is batting just .278 with six home runs and 21 RBIs in 162 at-bats since the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with sunny skies. Wind will blow from left to right field at 5 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 18-6-2 in the last 26 meetings between the teams.

San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers (-185, 6)

Hot pitching stat: Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw is 6-2 with a 1.78 ERA in four home runs surrendered in 10 second-half starts.

Cold batting stat: Giants OF Hunter Pence has just two hits - both singles - in 35 all-time at-bats against Kershaw.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies. Wind will blow out to right field at 4 mph.

Key betting note: The under is 15-2 in Kershaw's previous 17 starts against the Giants.


Interleague

Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals (-173, 7)

Hot pitching stat: Cardinals right-hander Adam Wainwright bounced back from consecutive rough outings against Cincinnati with seven innings of two-hit shutout ball in a 5-0 win over Pittsburgh five days ago.

Cold batting stat: Mariners 2B Kyle Seager is batting just .238 in the second half after hitting at a .293 clip prior to the All-Star break.

Weather: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under sunny skies. Wind will blow in from left field at 6 mph.

Key betting note: The over is 15-5-2 in Wainwright's last 22 Friday starts.


Odds, stats, weather forecast and probable starter as of 10:19 p.m. ET Thursday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookiemonsters

144-96-2 run

20-13-3 run last 36 plays

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