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Louisville @ KENTUCKY
KENTUCKY +15½ -110 over Louisville
12:00 PM EST. All the hype here is on the Cardinals. This is by far the biggest public play on the board today because Louisville is ranked #7 in the country and they’re coming off two blowout wins while outscoring the opposition 93-14. The Cardinals also destroyed the Wildcats last season and their upset win over Florida State in last year’s Sugar Bowl is still somewhat fresh in the minds of bettors. Louisville is primed and picked to reach a BCS game and they also have one of the early Heisman favorites at QB in Teddy Bridgewater. The Cardinals are in the spotlight and everything written about them so far has come true. They’ve been flawless in their first two games. However, Louisville also has played two complete marshmallows in Ohio and Eastern Kentucky. They probably have the easiest schedule in the entire country and it would be shocking to see them lose a single game this season. The Cardinals will be favored in every game by two or three TD’s and when you’re expected to win in such easy fashion, it’s not a positive thing. These Louisville players may be feeling a bit too complacent right now. The Wildcats were projected to be an SEC bottom feeder and that’s actually not so bad when you consider the power in that conference. But this isn’t the same old Wildcats. The team brought in offensive coordinator Neal Brown and he’s as good as they come. Kentucky has nothing to lose here. They are a young and very talented squad with a great coaching staff that will be well prepped for this rivalry game. Kentucky isn’t likely to win four games this year but they have an incredibly tough schedule and they are only going to get better under this new regime. This is truly a buy-low, sell high opportunity on the Wildcats. Week 3 is known for its big upsets over the years and that’s because most power schools schedule its first handful of games against what they figure to be easy prey. Kentucky is not nearly as talented or deep as the Cardinals but they’re not easy prey and they are being offered a generous spot here in a game that means everything to this program. The entire betting world is on the favorite here and that’s always a huge red flag. This one is no exception and if it’s close after the first quarter, expect Kentucky to hang around the entire afternoon.
Our Pick
#118 KENTUCKY +15½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Oregon State @ UTAH
UTAH/Oregon State over 57½ -110
10:00 PM EST. Both of these teams are having nothing but trouble running the ball so we don’t expect either of them to try to establish something that has very little chance of success. What that means is an aerial show between two offenses that are lighting it up early. The Utes have scored 100 points in the first two weeks while Oregon State was carved up for 49 points by Eastern Washington in the most shocking upset of the young season so far. Last week the Beavers allowed another 14 points at home to Hawaii and while it may not seem like much, it actually was when you consider that the Warriors rarely had possession. Both the Beavers and Utes have huge issues in their secondary and both don’t figure to get right-sided against two QB’s that have put up some healthy numbers. Oregon State’s defense is a train wreck right now and it’s not going to be corrected until they have time to go over all the issues. That’s not going to happen until after the bye in Week 6, leaving this guest extremely vulnerable to big chunks of yardage and many scores. Utah is getting nothing from the back end of its defense and the only shot OSU has here is to air it out and hope to score more in a shootout. That’s going to lead to this one soaring over this number and we’re on it.
Our Pick
#190 UTAH/Oregon State over 57½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
Alabama @ TEXAS A&M
TEXAS A&M +9½ -110 over Alabama
3:30 PM EST. This game needs no introduction, as it’s the marquee game on today’s schedule and the college football world has been talking about it since the Aggies defeated Nick Saban and the Tide 10 months ago. Nick Saban vowed revenge and most people are eating that up because Saban is 7-1 in revenge games when losing to a team the previous year. All the so-called experts are quick to point out that if the Aggies surrendered 31 points to Rice and 28 points to Sam Houston State in their first two contests, ‘Bama should score twice that. Well, it’s not that easy. Those two games were warm-ups for the Aggies. They were dealing with several issues, including suspensions to key personnel on defense but A&M gets back Gavin Stansbury, Steven Jenkins, the teams’ leading tackler from last season and De'Vante Harris, the club’s top corner. That’s big for the Aggies and makes a huge difference. A&M is not as good as they were a year ago because several players left for the NFL but they were ready for the Tide and they’ll be ready again this season. Besides, Alabama isn’t as good as they were last year either. ‘Bama won its opener over Virginia Tech 35-10 but that score is misleading, as the Tide was actually outgained in that contest by a count of 212-206 with the time of possession being near equal. The Crimson Tide also scored two TD’s on punt returns in the game against the Hokies and it’s a good thing they did because the offense couldn’t move five yards. Alabama’s offensive line is a question mark and there is no question that they also have the inferior QB in this contest. Most are suggesting that Alabama’s defense will be licking their chops to get at Johnny Manziel and while that may be true, nobody has been able to stop him yet, including Alabama’s heralded defense from a year ago when the Aggies stormed out to a 20-0 lead. QB AJ McCarron was shut down by the Hokies in the first game of the season two weeks ago. In fact, the Crimson Tide did not look sharp at all in that contest. Some will point out that they were gearing up for this game but that’s an argument we’re not buying. It was the first game of the year and every team gets jacked up to get back on the football field. When you wager on the top ranked team in the country, you are always going to pay a premium to do so. That rarely comes recommended. What we see here is that we’re getting 9 points at home with the nation’s best QB and the 6th ranked team in the country. So, forget the lame revenge angle. It means nothing. Alabama has not created an identity for its offense yet and while they are likely to put up some points here, so too will Johnny Football and it wouldn’t surprise us one bit if Manziel and the Aggies put up more points than McCarron and the Tide. Don't pay for the hype folks.
Our Pick
#152 TEXAS A&M +9½ -110 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 1.85)
Ohio State @ CALIFORNIA
CALIFORNIA +14½ -102 over Ohio State
The Buckeyes are 2-0 after defeating Buffalo and San Diego State and that’s the problem with the #2 ranked team in the country. There is a price to play for scheduling games against cupcakes and it’s something the Buckeyes do every season in their non-conference schedule. The Buckeyes hate to risk a loss and when they scheduled this game, they figured they were in for an easy time against a Golden Bears squad that went 3-9 a year ago and lost its final five games. However, Cal made some changes by bringing in offensive guru Sonny Dykes (Louisiana Tech) to run the show. In his third and final season with the Bulldogs, Dykes oversaw the No. 1 offense in the country, as Louisiana Tech averaged a staggering 578 yards per game en route to a nine-win campaign. The players bought in right away to Dykes system and now the Golden Bears lead the nation in passing yards with an eye-opening 472 yards per game. One of those games came against #22 Northwestern. Cal’s defense is another story and it’s the main reason they are getting 14½ points here. They have a long way to go to be able to stop a potent offense like the Buckeyes potentially have. However, this is the Buckeyes first road game. They have not been battle tested yet with two easy games against two rather weak squads, especially the Aztecs. OSU’s starting QB Braxton Miller is likely sitting this out with a knee sprain and even if he does suit up, he’s not likely to play 60 minutes. Perhaps overlooked with the spotlight shining so brightly on Miller's knee is the fact Ohio State is dealing with another injury concern on the other side of the ball. The groin problem for defensive end Adolphus Washington actually might be a more pressing issue. Considering the youth in the front seven for the Buckeyes and Cal's up-tempo, aggressive style with the football, removing Washington from the lineup could be a significant blow up front. Ohio State isn’t looking to blow away Cal. They are likely going to run the ball as much as possible to keep the Golden Bears offense off the field but this is too many points to be spotting on the road to this capable offense. In fact, it’s a distinct possibility that California scores the first TD and then you’re looking at a 21½-point spread. OSU is almost always overpriced, especially in the early going when they’re coming off big wins but the Buckeyes are not in as easy as they would like here and we give the Golden Bears a fighting chance to pull this upset.
Our Pick
#172 CALIFORNIA +14½ -102 (Risking 2.04 units - To Win: 2.00)
There is no chance that we are passing up an opportunity to take back a tag like this on Cole Hamels. Hamels comes in with a 7-13 record, which is the most misleading W/L record in the majors. Hamels had a pretty decent first half but he's been outstanding in the second half with a skills supported 2.18 ERA from July to now. Over his last five starts, covering 36 innings, Hamels has walked just four batters while whiffing 37. Furthermore, since his first start in July, Hamels line-drive rate of 15% is the lowest in the game of any starting pitcher with at least 20 innings. Cole Hamels is a true ace in every sense of the word. The more important number to know about Hamels this year is 10—the number of losses he's suffered with his offense providing two or fewer runs of support. With only a little more luck, he could have 15 wins. His 13 losses is a complete farce, resulting in this preposterous take back. Gio Gonzalez is coming off a complete game, one-hit shutout over the Mets. That near-no-hitter lasted into the seventh inning and a performance like that one often suffers a serious letdown the next time out. We see it with no-hitters and the same can be applied to a near ho-hitter. Additionally, Gonzalez has shown some inconsistencies this season. He’s been whacked in three of his past eight starts, allowing 26 hits and 22 runs over 12.1 innings against Detroit, Kansas City and these same Phillies in those three starts. That’s some serious disasters there and the reason is in the under the hood numbers. Gonzalez has an alarming 34% line-drive rate over his past six starts. His groundball rate has dramatically decreased from 44% on the season to a low 30% over that same span. Gonzalez appears to have dominated the past three games but it’s all smoke and mirrors, as every hard hit ball, and there were plenty of them, was hit right at someone. Gonzalez is showing serious signs of fatigue but it’s all under the surface, allowing us to take full advantage of this exceptionally overpriced favorite.
Our Pick
Philadelphia +135 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.70)
Chicago @ PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH -1½ +132 over Chicago
Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick. Game: Bowling Green at Indiana (Saturday 9/14 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Bowling Green +3 (-115) at bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.87) Bowling Green is going to be a top team in the MAC this season, thanks in large part to an improved offensive. And once again they will be a force on the defensive end with almost everyone that matters back from a top-stop unit from a year ago. They were a bit lethargic to start the Kent State game last week, but they still rallied for a 19-point win. Indiana came up big offensively with a 73-point explosion vs. FCS opponent Indiana State in their opener. But, at home last week they coughed up 41 to a suspect Navy team as a 12.5 point favorite. This will be a new challenge for their offense, and I think that the Hoosiers will have trouble both moving, and hanging onto the ball. Bowling Green's offense should have their way vs. a Hoosiers team that has allowed 38 points per game to a pair of teams that aren't very dominating on offense. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 on field turf, and the Hoosiers are just 1-for-6 ATS in their last six Sept ember tilts. Bowling Green takes this one.
Game: Akron at Michigan (Saturday 9/14 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.5 units on Michigan -37 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.50 to win 1.43) This Akron Zips program has been feeling its oats for the last few years, but this does not look like the turnaround year. The Zips enter this contest winless in their last 33 games vs. FBS opponents, and now they have to try and compete with a monster in the Big House. Michigan has already dispatched with Central Michigan here by 50 points. And, Akron is a few notches below that club. Michigan's win over Notre Dame has this team believing that they can be a BCS Bowl game team this year, and they won't let up in this one. The Michigan offense generated 59 points vs. Central Michigan and 41 vs. Notre Dame, and are well armed to score big enough here to take down the big number. In his coaching career, Brady Hoke is 13-4 ATS in September games. All Michigan in this one.
Game: Tulsa at Oklahoma (Saturday 9/14 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.5 units on Oklahoma -24 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.50 to win 1.36) After the Sooners' lack of offense in a 16-7 win vs. West Virginia last week, many will wonder how they can manage enough points to cover this big number. Well the answer might lie in the fact that the Golden Hurricane gave up 34 points to Bowling Green, and 27 to Colorado State. Those teams combined to average 22 points per game a year ago. The problem for Tulsa is going to be finding the end zone at all, as they managed just 7 points against Bowling Green. Their offense lacks firepower, while the defense isn't ready to handle the resulting workload. The Golden Hurricane has not fared well venturing into the Big-12, where they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven. The Sooners have risen to the occasion after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game by going 13-3 ATS in their last 16 in that situation. Under Bob Stoops, Oklahoma is 45-31 ATS after an ATS loss and 12-4 ATS following a game in which his team committed 4+ turnovers. Sooners roll.
Game: Georgia State at West Virginia (Saturday 9/14 12:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on West Virginia -39.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) Every team needs a sacrificial lamb on their schedule, and Georgia State is it for West Virginia. Last year the Panthers went 1-10, and this year they are off to an 0-2 start. This is a team that lost their last game to Chattanooga at home 42-14. They aren't just an FCS team... they are one of the worst. West Virginia was not good down the stretch a year ago, but played well at Oklahoma. They are in desperate need to vent and get a feel-good, so I think this one has huge blowout potential. The Mountaineers will not likely have starters in this game much after halftime, but Georgia State is so bad that the second and third units for West Virginia should not only hold the lead - they should expand it. This is a high line for sure, but not high enough. Play on West Virginia.
Game: Southern Mississippi at Arkansas (Saturday 9/14 12:20 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Arkansas -23 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) After a decade and a half of solid seasons, the Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles have fallen on hard times. Southern Miss went through a painful season a year ago where they did not taste the thrill of victory, finishing the campaign at 0-12. While there is nowhere to go but up, the Eagles have yet to sniff a win again this year through two games, despite a very winnable game at home to open the season vs. Texas State. Southern Miss has already committed 10 turnovers on the season. They now have to try and go into the SEC and be competitive vs. Arkansas. This is not going to happen. The Razorbacks are 2-0 after a pair of soft touches, but this one gets even easier. The Golden Eagles' lack of team speed has shown up on field turf where they are a woeful 1-10-1 ATS in their last 12. The Razorbacks have a huge edge at home where they are 19-7 ATS in their last 26. This one should be ugly, so play on Arkansas.
Game: New Mexico at Pittsburgh (Saturday 9/14 12:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.5 units on Pittsburgh -21.5 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.50 to win 1.36) New Mexico has won just 13 of 63 games over the past five seasons. They managed one of those wins last week over UTEP, but that success will be short lived. This week they get Pittsburgh, a team that is in dire need of a good outing after a 13-41 embarrassing loss to Florida State in their opener. Pittsburgh has had two weeks to prepare for this one and there is no look ahead with Duke on tap and the sting of that opener loss still strong. Big home favorites of more than three TDs coming off a byte hit at 59% ATS in college football. I expect that trend to play out here. Take Pitt.
Game: Boston College at U S C (Saturday 9/14 3:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 43 (-110) at BetPhoenix (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) Lane Kiffin is taking a lot of heat at USC, as he should be. He could be the first coach to go this season after his team inexplicably lost to Washington State at home last week as a 16-point favorite. In that game the Trojans could score all of 7 points. This is the same Washington State team that allowed 31 points to an Auburn team that won all of three games last season. Washington State had given up 30 points or more in 14 of their last 22 games, and the Trojans went for under 200 total yards. USC also managed just 364 yards vs. a bad Hawaii team the week before. This is not an offense, it is a train wreck. The good news is that the Trojans have allowed just 23 points in their first two games, and Boston College is no better offensively than what they have seen to this point. BC scored 24 against both Villanova and Wake Forest, and USC is much better on the defensive side than both of those squads. The Eagles are 36-14-1 to the UNDER in their last 51 gam es, including 20-6 to the UNDER outside the conference. They are also 10-1 UNDER as a road dog the past three seasons. USC is 15-6 UNDER in the Kiffin era following an ATS loss including 9-1 UNDER after back-to-back losses. Play this one UNDER the total.
Game: Nevada at Florida State (Saturday 9/14 3:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Florida State -33.5 (-110) at bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) Jameis Winston is already a household name thanks to his 25-for-27, 356 yard, four touchdown performance on national TV two weeks ago. The crazy thing is that people that know what he can do say they weren't really surprised. News flash: This kid is good. He should feast on a Nevada team that allowed 647 yards and 58 points to UCLA in their opener. The Wolfpack really struggle vs. high-octane offenses. In nine games over the past year with a total set at 63 or more, Nevada is 1-8 ATS. This one should get ugly early. Take Florida State here.
Game: Tennessee at Oregon (Saturday 9/14 3:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Oregon -27.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) Chip Kelly may be gone as coach at Oregon, but the Ducks' offense is still making its presence felt. Oregon has not skipped a beat, putting up 125 points in their first two games this season. The most impressive of the two was 59 points at Virginia last week. The Cavaliers are a solid defensive club, but were no match for the fast-paced, high-octane offense of Oregon. Tennessee is in big trouble here, as their offense lost a star QB to graduation, and they simply don't have the firepower to get enough points to even stay close. The Vols' first two games have come against soft touches, and they will be ill prepared to be ready for the speed and power of Oregon. The Ducks enter a perfect 8-0 ATS after rushing for over 200 yards in their previous game, while Tennessee is 0-7-1 ATS following an ATS win, and this is not the place to reverse those numbers. All Oregon in this one.
Game: Washington vs. Illinois (Saturday 9/14 6:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Illinois +10 (-110) at bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.91) Illinois lost their last nine games last year and did not break into the win column in Big-10 action all season. They have opened 2-0 this year. Their win over Illinois State was expected, but they also put together their best performance in over a year when they shocked Cincinnati 42-17 at home as an 8-point dog. The Fighting Illini scored 17 points or less in seven of their last eight games, but have become vastly improved. They have put up 42 points in each of their first two games this season. Washington made a statement of their own by taking down Boise State 38-6 in their opener. The question, however, remains - was that a huge win or is Boise State down lower than they have been in over a decade? The answer probably lies somewhere between the two. Regardless, the Illini are flying high while the Huskies could be a bit hungover from their big win. This team is, after all, just 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games following a home blowout win by 28+ points. Illin ois can keep this one close and I think they do. Take the points and play on Illinois.
Game: Kent State at L S U (Saturday 9/14 7:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.5 units on L S U -36.5 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.50 to win 1.43) LSU has always had a strong defensive presence, especially at home. But their first two games have shown an encouraging sign on offense, as they have delivered 93 points. They take on a Kent State team that allowed 41 points to Bowling Green last week. Kent looks to be in a heap of trouble here under the lights in Baton Rouge - one of the most intimidating atmospheres in the country. This may look like a huge number to crack, but consider the fact that since 1989 the Bayou Bengals have gone 20-12-1 ATS when taking on a line of -30 or more. The Golden Flashes have done little in their out-of-conference games where they are 5-15 ATS in their last 20, and often finding themselves over-matched. LSU has ridden the wave of momentum as they are 9-2 ATS when following a win of more than 20 points. This one is a major blowout, so play on LSU.
Game: Western Michigan at Northwestern (Saturday 9/14 9:00 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.0 unit on Northwestern -30 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95) Northwestern got a big monkey off their backs a year ago by winning a Bowl Game. This is a program that has risen from the ashes of the Big-10 basement, to have now gone to five straight Bowl Games. They won 10 games last season, and are 16-5 in their last 21, including a 2-0 start this season vs. a pair of BCS Conference teams, putting up nearly 1,000 yards of offense in the process. Make no mistake - this team has arrived. This will be their first cupcake, and Northwestern just isn't the type of team to let up. As a result, they could find themselves covering by halftime. Western Michigan has lost a lot from a year ago, and are going to struggle this season in the MAC, let alone playing a team that could find itself in the top 10 by season's end. The Broncos have been over-matched in the Big-10 where they own a sour 2-8 ATS mark in their last 10. Northwestern is a cover machine at 17-4 ATS in their last 21, including 11-0 ATS after gaining 450+ yards. Under Pat Fitzgerald, the Cats know how to use momentum as this team is 13-5 ATS after back-to-back ATS wins. Go with the Wildcats.
Game: Texas San Antonio at Arizona (Saturday 9/14 10:30 PM Eastern) Pick: 1.5 units on Arizona -24.5 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.50 to win 1.36) The Texas San Antonio Roadrunners played Oklahoma State to a 21-point game on the road last week as a 33.5 point underdog. But, the Cowboys are not the team they were the last few years. The Wildcats have it going on both sides of the ball, and have won their first two games by a total of 80 points, and this one does not look to be much different. Arizona has a punishing running attack which has ground-out 730 yards in two games. And, UTSA simply does not have the team speed or depth to handle it. Oklahoma State put up 610 yards on them last week, and Arizona is going to put up similar numbers. The difference here is that the Wildcats have a stronger defense, so the distance between these teams is going to show up early and often - especially on the scoreboard. An offense in motion tends to stay in motion in college football, and Arizona has covered four straight after topping the 40-point mark. Play on Arizona in this one.
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