9-14-13

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INSIDER ANGLES

NCAA Football Trends & Angles - Week 3
September 13, 2013

We have already reached Week 3 of the 2013 NCAA Football season, and there are many more conference games on the slate this week as many conferences continue to be their schedules earlier than they did just a few years ago with bigger "superconferences" gaining popularity, necessitating earlier starts because of the sheer size of the leagues.

Another factor is many conferences now having championship games at the end of the year, forcing them to start at least one week earlier than in the past so that those games are not too close to the beginning of the bowl season.

The bottom line of all this is that there are now more September conference games than ever before, and with this in mind, all of our Trends & Angles in Week 3 will pertain to conference games only or more specifically to September conference games only. We will then transition to season-long angles in the first week of October.

Please note that all records are for the last 13 seasons since the 2000 season, plus the first two weeks of this year.

Bet against September home conference favorites coming off a loss
(112-61-5, 64.7% ATS):
Bettors often tend to excuse teams coming off of a loss if the team is home, thinking that the home crowd will inspire the team to a better performance and the fact that they are favored must mean they are the better team. What bettors don't consider is that these teams could just as easily be overvalued, as one loss does not change a team's power rating much when perhaps it should, at least early in the season. Qualifier: Vanderbilt +13½ at South Carolina.

Bet on September road teams in conference games coming off an 'under'
(139-90-8, 60.9% ATS):
Many bettors like to bet flashy teams that score boatloads of points, and teams coming off an 'under' are often the very antithesis of that. However, these "boring" teams often play good defense also, which naturally gives them more value than the scoring machines that are often overvalued. Qualifier: Oregon State +3.

Bet on September conference road underdogs coming off a win (143-96-11, 59.8% ATS): This is yet another angle that has to do with perception as bettors that are unaware of the strengths and weaknesses of each team early often rely on the oddsmakers to "tell" them who the better team is and then knee-jerk to the favorite. The problem there is that the lines are the softest early in the season and conference underdogs coming off a win may simply be undervalued at this early stage. Qualifiers: Mississippi State +6, Oregon State +3 and Vanderbilt +13½.

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Northcoast

Economy Club - Maryland -6.5

Big Dog Play - Florida Atlantic +13.5

Big Twelve Play - Texas

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Dave Cokin:

117 Louisville -13.5
123 Bowling Green +3
135 Fresno State -9.5
139 UCLA +4.5
141 Georgia Tech -8.5
150 Iowa State +2.5
169 Tulsa +24.5
178 Rice -6.5 TWO UNIT BEST BET
189 Oregon State +3.5
249 Cal Poly +9.5
269 Southern Utah +22

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Delphi Soccer Plays:

English Championship: Watford v Charlton - over 2.5 Goals @ -120 (10am EST)
English Premiership: Everton v Chelsea - Chelsea win @ +135 (12:30pm EST)

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DOUG UPSTONE

Northwestern-30

For Saturday, PLAY ON home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points like Northwestern, an excellent offensive team averaging 6.2 yards per play, against a team with an average defense (4.8 to 5.6 YPP), after gaining 6.75 or more yards a play in two consecutive games.

This incredible college football system is 22-3 ATS, 88 percent the last 20 years, with the average margin of victory 34.8 points.

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Marc Lawrence's Pick Pack
NCAA Football Saturday Picks

Premium Plays
Matchup: Bowling Green at Indiana
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Bowling Green (+3 -110)
Line Source: TopBet.com
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Bowling Green (Game 123). Note: Fool me once, Hoosiers – shame on you. But after last week’s debacle we’ll be looking for a repeat of that lackluster performance against a very good 18-returning starter Bowling Green team that has posted a 10-2 SUATS record in its last 12 road games as a favorite or dog of less than 6 points. Indiana is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five home games versus MAC opposition and 1-6 ATS over the last seven in the role of non-conference chalk. Of course, they’re not the only ones: our database confirms that home favorites off a SU home loss when laying double digits are just 2-10 ATS in this role since 2000 when playing off exactly one loss. As is often the case, the well-oiled machine will often toss us a reliable counterpoint: 2-0 SUATS road dogs in Game Three are 24-11 ATS when facing a .500 or greater opponent. The clincher: single-digit non conference home favorites off one loss-exact as a favorite are 1-18 ATS when facing an opponent off a win provided the favorite lost to the spread by more than 13 points in the loss. With that we recommend a 3-unit play on Bowling Green. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Fresno State at Colorado
Time: 2:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Colorado (+9.5 -110)
Line Source: Mirage-MGM
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Colorado (Game 136). Note: Much of the Fresno State preseason hype this year was centered around all-MWC QB Derek Carr, and though he did throw for 470 yards against Rutgers, he managed a less-than-impressive 208 yards in the win over Cal Poly-SLO. Meanwhile, the Buffs have been so bad for so long (4-21 SU since leaving the Big 12 for the Pac-12) that their 2-0 start – both SU and ITS (In The Stats) – has gone largely unnoticed. First-year head coach Mike MacIntyre did not mince words while sweeping away remnants of the previous regime, publicly stating that last year’s Buffs were one of the most poorly-prepared teams he had ever seen. But after transforming San Jose State from a 1-win team to a 11-2 bowl winner in just three seasons, we expect to see MacIntyre quickly turn around Colorado’s football fortunes. This looks like a good opportunity as Fresno has struggled to a weak 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS effort versus previous Pac-10/12 opponents. In addition our database notes that undefeated non-conference home dogs of 10 or less points with a winning record that scored 35 or more points in each game are 13-0 ATS when facing a winning opponent not off a win of 20 or more points who allows 14 or more PPG since 1980. We recommend a 3-unit play on Colorado. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Boston Col. at Southern Cal
Time: 3:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Southern Cal (-13.5 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: USC (Game 148). Note: Despite the Trojans stunning home loss last week, all is not lost. The Trojans enter today's fray owning an 11th-ranked ‘D’ allowing a mere 230 YPG, and did not allow an offensive TD in the loss to the Cougars (held Mike Leach to his lowest output ever in a conference game). The stat sheet shows Boston College trekking to the left coast with a 2-0 SU record in tow but the Eagles must overcome a ton of negative ATS roles if they expect to ring the register here. BC is 0-5 ATS in its first road trip, 0-3 ATS versus the Pac-12 and our database reminds us that new coaches in their first road game are just 4-14 ATS when facing a foe off a SU favorite loss. The Trojans fare much better, posting a 6-1 ATS mark in the second of three straight home games, plus they’re 12-7 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss. The most encouraging news for Lane Kiffin and his warriors: 2-0 road teams in Game Three off a SUATS win are 0-15 ATS when facing a non conference host off a home loss that has won 8 or more of its previous 22 games provided the road team did not beat the spread by 18 or more points in its last game. Lay the points with the value-laden Trojans. We recommend a 3-unit play on USC. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Matchup: Central Florida at Penn State
Time: 6:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Central Florida (+6 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Central Florida (Game 159). Note: And, right on cue, here come the underdog Knights. UCF has opened 2-0 SUATS versus a pair of pancakes in Akron and FIU but the level of competition increases dramatically this week against a Penn State squad that just mauled Eastern Michigan, 45-7. Still, our database likes dogs that were favored by 3 or more TDs the last game, especially when they’ve won 10 of their last 12 games (with the losses coming by only 5 and 6 points). These Knights protect the ball like it’s the Holy Grail, committing just one turnover this season after ranking 16th in the FBS last year in turnover margin. And with head coach George O’Leary’s 7-2 ATS dog collar when his team is undefeated means the large throng at Happy Valley likely won’t intimidate the visitors. Can’t say enough about what a great job Bill O’Brien has done at State College since the passing of Joe Pa but the Lions have traditionally struggled in this role: just 1-7 ATS at home off a previous homer versus an unbeaten foe – including 0-5 ATS the last five outings. UCF has a habit of playing to the level of its competition (last 11 SU defeats came by an average of just over 7 PPG), a characteristic that sometimes causes foes to underestimate their talent level. O’Brien won’t fall into that trap but we don’t think it’s going to matter, not when he takes on his former boss O'Leary (assistant at Georgia Tech). The clincher: road dogs off a shutout road win are 17-3 ATS since 1980 when facing a non-conference opponent, including 12-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win and facing a .333 or greater opponent. Grab the points. We recommend a 3-unit play on Central Florida. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Member Plays
Matchup: Virginia Tech at East Carolina
Time: 12:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: East Carolina (+8 -110)
Line Source: Heritage
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: East Carolina. Note: Apparently, this line is based purely on name and reputation. The truth is these two teams are heading in opposite directions and the oddsmaker can do little about it. The Pirates have won 7 of their last 8 regular season contests while the Hokies have dropped 6 of their last 10. In addition, the Techsters were favored on the road four times last season, going 0-4 ATS while losing three of those games straight-up. Yes, we realize the Hokies are 13-1 SU in the state of North Carolina during the regular season since 2004, but this game is hardly a ‘must-win situation’ and these aren’t the same Beamer Boys we’ve come to love in the past. On the flip side, we’ve been predicting a breakout season for Ruffin McNeill’s squad and a victory here would be a huge step in that direction. However, Bud Foster’s defense made Alabama’s young offensive line look silly at times in the season opener, so an outright win is a difficult proposition. Still, keep in mind that the Pirates are 3-1-1 ATS in the last five games of this series, and that home underdogs of 7 points or less in Game Three coming off back-to-back home wins are 11-3 ATS since 1993. Finally, Mike Leach disciple McNeill is 13-0 SU and 8-2-1 ATS at home against opponents with a record of .500 or worse. In this case, it’s better to receive than to give. We recommend a 1-unit play on East Carolina. Thank you and good luck as always.
Marc's Famous College Football False Favorite Game of the Month plays are documented 31-9, with 20 straight-up underdog winners. Get this huge 4* play now and learn a trio of amazing Awesome Angles inside the game that have each never lost the money, going 24-0 ATS. You know what to do!
Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Mississippi at Texas
Time: 8:00 PM EDT (Sat)

Play: Mississippi (+3 -110)
Line Source: CarbonSports
Posted on: September 13, 2013 @ 12:11:48 AM EDT

>Play On: Mississippi (Game 145). Note: It wasn't long after the Texas defense was eviscerated for an unimaginable 550 rushing yards by BYU that Longhorns head coach Mack Brown hit the panic button and fired defensive coordinator Manny Diaz, marking the first time ever in his college career that Brown dismissed a coach in mid-season. Enter former Syracuse HC Greg Robinson as the new DC. Robinson was working as a TV analyst when he got the call. As if that’s not enough for Brown to worry about, starting QB David Ash is likely out for this game with a head and shoulder injuries. Case McCoy will step in, making his eighth appearance as a quarterback with the Longhorns. In those games - five in 2011, two in 2012 - McCoy had a TD-INT ratio of 8-7 with an average raw QBR of 43.4. Texas went on to lose five of the seven contests. Regardless of who's behind center, the ‘Horns are still in a rotten role here: as single-digit home favorites off one loss exact are a weak 19-40 ATS versus a foe off a win. Bevo hasn’t had much luck with the SEC either, going 2-6 ATS the last eight meetings and posting a dismal 4-10 ATS mark as overall non-conference chalk of 11 or fewer points. Our database backs a play on the visitors, too, noting that SEC teams are 4-0 ATS versus Big 12 foes off a SU favorite loss – and that Mississippi HC Hugh Freeze is an eye-popping 10-0 SU and 8-1 ATS versus an opponent off a loss, including 7-0 SUATS against teams off a SUATS loss. Add to that this beauty from our database: non-conference home favorites of 20 or less points off a SU road favorite loss of 9 or more points are 0-11 ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off a win with revenge. The clincher: Brown is 18-33 ATS in his career versus undefeated opponents, including 0-6 SUATS in games after having allowed 34 or more points in his previous contest. FYI: he was in this same exact role last year as a 7-point home favorite against West Virginia and managed to lose the whole game, 48-45. Look for the royally pissed Rebels to avenge last year’s 66-31 thrashing at Oxford in a major payback as the money-burning continues in Austin tonight. We recommend a 4-unit play on Ole Miss. Thank you and good luck as always.

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SweetJones55

Marshall Thundering Herd -6.5 (x1)
Pittsburgh Panthers -21.5 (x1)
Texas Longhorns -6.5 (x1)

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Playersbet 7 unit CFB Saturday Play

7 Unit Play. #127 Take Maryland Terrapins -6 over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN3.com)

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Prediction Machine's
NCAAF lock Rice -6.5

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Robert Ferringo's
Stanford (-29) over Army
FIRST HALF: Take #113 Stanford (-16.5) over Army
Ohio State (-15.5) over Cal
Ohio (+8) over Marshall
Kansas (+7) over Rice
West Virginia (-39.5) over Georgia State
Georgia Tech (-8.5) over Duke
Maryland (-6) over Connecticut
Oklahoma State (-47) over Lamar
Arizona State (-5) over Wisconsin
Alabama (-7.5) over Texas A&M
Central Florida (+5.5) over Penn State
Louisville (-13.5) over Kentucky
TEASER: Take #157 Washington (-2.5) over Illinois (6 p.m.) AND Take #176 South Florida (-5.5) over Florida Atlantic
Ball State (-3) over North Texas
Utah State (-36) over Weber State
Utah (-3) over Oregon State

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Allen Eastman
Colorado (+9.5) over Fresno State
Vanderbilt (+13.5) over South Carolina
Utah (-3) over Oregon State
Kansas (+7) over Rice

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Raphael Esparza (VSI)'s
Louisville -13 ½ over Kentucky
Take Under 61 Alabama at Texas A&M
Arizona St -5 over Wisconsin

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Strike Point Sports
Arizona State (-5) over Wisconsin
Ball State (-3.5) over North Texas
Washington/Illinois 'Over' 62

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Jason Sharpe

#155 Mississippi State +6 over Auburn

#157 Washington -9.5 over Illinois


#128 Connecticut +6.5 over Maryland

178 Rice -6.5 over Kansas

USC -13.5 over Boston College

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DOC’S SPORTS

4 Unit Play. #117 TakeLouisville Cardinals -13.5 over Kentucky Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ESPN) TheGovernor's Cup is on the line in this annual meeting between Louisville andKentucky. The Cardinals have won five of their last seven games in Lexington,and they have a much better team this year than does Kentucky. The Wildcatsalready lost to WKU, a team that got pounded by a middle-of-the-pack SEC teamin Tennessee. Louisville not only needs to win games, but they must do it inconvincing fashion in order to get noticed and move up in the polls. They winthis game by 20+ points, and we collect along with them. Louisville is 16-5 ATSin their last 21 road games. Kentucky just has not handled prosperity well,going 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a victory in their previousouting.

7 Unit Play. #127 TakeMaryland Terrapins -6 over Connecticut Huskies (Saturday 7:30 pm ESPN3.com)Non-Conference Game of the Year. Revenge will be best served onthe field tonight in Storrs. Maryland suffered numerous injuries last season,especially at the quarterback position, and every team was able to kick themaround. But that will not be the case this season. Maryland is loaded onoffense, and expect them to light up the scoreboard all night long against ateam that has quit on their coach in 2013. Nobody was real excited about thehiring of Paul Pasqualoni when current Maryland Coach Randy Edsall leftConnecticut. Things reached an epic low in week 1 of this season when they lostto Towson State by double-digits. The Huskies had a strong defense last season,but that is not the case in 2013 as four players off of the 2012 defensivesquad were NFL Draft picks.
Thisgame is all about Coach Randy Edsall as he struggled through some tough gamesin his first two years, including a loss at home to Connecticut in 2012. He isstill angry about that game and will not let off the gas for 60 minutestonight, wanting to show the crowd why he is the all-time winningest coach inUCONN history. UCONN is 2-7 ATS (1 push) in their last 10 games overall.Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 nonconference games. Expect Maryland tohave a great scouting report since Towson State's head coach used to work withCoach Edsall. The Maryland coach does not just want a victory in this game, hewants to make a statement, and he will by double-digits.

4 Unit Play. #151 TakeAlabama Crimson Tide -7.5 over Texas A & M Aggies (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS) Theplayers for Alabama will never admit it publically; however, they want revengein a big way against Texas A & M. They want to shut up Johnny Manziel andknock his team out of the national championship picture. I expect them to do itin a big way as the fact remains that Johnny Football just does not have theoffensive line or the playmakers around him to compete this year. I expect himto try and do too much and thus turn over the football and give Alabama a shortfield. The Crimson Tide are coming off a bye week and did not perform very wellon offense against Virginia Tech in their opener. I expect AJ McCarron to havea big bounce-back week as he likely has more draft potential than JohnnyFootball. A & M is the most overrated team in the country this season, andit will show today as they suffer the first of many losses this season bydouble-digits. Alabama is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games.

4 Unit Play. #173 TakeUMASS Minutemen +39 over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 7 pm) UMASSis a terrible team that is just getting used to FBS play. However, the Wildcatsare rebuilding this year, and I do not believe that they are good enough to belaying this many points to anybody. They already have a loss on their 2013resume to a FCS team in North Dakota State. The Minutemen lost to a much betterWisconsin team by 45 points, and I believe they will be able to score on KansasState. That means the Wildcats will likely have to score over 50 points tocover this spread. Kansas State is 11-23 ATS in their last 34 nonconferencegames. I see Kansas State winning this game by 28-32 points, giving us thecover.

4 Unit Play. #182 TakeUNDER 49 in Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday 8 pm ABC)For some reason, this game gets prime time billing even thoughPurdue is one of the worst teams in the Big Ten and maybe the country. TheIrish could not stop Michigan last week but should have a much easier time withPurdue in Week 3. Purdue has scored just 27 points in two games this season.Notre Dame has gone under the posted total in 18 of their last 26 games (onepush). Purdue has gone under the posted total in their last three games againstNotre Dame. Play the under and do not worry if Notre Dame can cover thisspread.

4 Unit Play. #184 TakeNew Mexico State Aggies +4.5 over UTEP Miners (8 pm) The Minerscomplete their New Mexico two-step playing the Aggies after facing the Lobos intheir opening game. UTEP lost to New Mexico, giving up 42 points, and yet theyare favored in this game on the road. The fact remains that UTEP is not a goodteam and that they have been terrible of late when it comes to ATS. They were3-9 last year and now have a new coach in Sean Kugler. The Miners have coveredjust four of their last 18 games. NMSU is nothing to write home about, but theyalso have a new coach in Doug Martin and are playing as an independent thisseason. That being said, they are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teamswith a losing record. The Aggies win their home opener straight up, and wecollect big in the process as well!