9-15-13

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

WNBA PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread against opponent after having covered 2 of their last 3 against the spread
106-57 since 1997. ( 65.0% 43.3 units )
7-2 this year. ( 77.8% 4.8 units )

WNBA ATLANTA at SAN ANTONIO

Play Against - Home teams vs. the money line (SAN ANTONIO) terrible defensive team - allowing 77+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
83-47 since 1997. ( 63.8% 0.0 units )
7-5 this year. ( 58.3% 0.0 units )

WNBA PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES

Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after 1 or more consecutive wins against opponent after 2 or more consecutive wins
193-114 since 1997. ( 62.9% 67.6 units )
5-8 this year. ( 38.5% -3.8 units )

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NFL WASHINGTON at GREEN BAY

Play Under - Any team against the total off a road loss, in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% 29.5 units )

NFL SAN DIEGO at PHILADELPHIA

Play On - Any team vs the money line (SAN DIEGO) off a cover where the team lost as an underdog against opponent off an upset win as a road underdog
21-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 67.7% 0.0 units )

NFL CLEVELAND at BALTIMORE

Play On - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (CLEVELAND) after 1 or more consecutive losses, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% 32.9 units )

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ANDRE GOMES

Soccer Premier League
West Ham United @Southampton
Game Time: Sunday, 11:00 AM EST
At first sight, the current odds giving Southampton a ML line of -120 (55% chances to win) might seem a bit overrated for a team that has just four points in the league, as many as West Ham, however on this particular matchup, I actually think the difference between these two teams is even bigger than the odds are currently showing.

West Ham under Sam Allardyce are playing on his traditional kick n rush style. They are averaging just 44.7% ball possession in the league, even though they are yet to face a top teams this season. The problem is that West Ham has so many injuries on offense that they are almost inoffensive right now. Andy Carroll is likely to be out until the new year, their most creative player Joe Cole is also out, same with Stuart Downing and George McCartney! Therefore, West Ham tried to find a striker in the trade deadline and they signed the free agent Mladen Petric, but he isn't match fit yet and so, he is out for today's game as well. So, no surprise that they had just 1 shot on target on their last two games! Things won't be a lot different today and I expect them to heavily struggle on offense once again.

On the other side, Southampton will be one of the teams that will continue improving as the season goes by, as they'll need some time to gel together after so many signings. Still, Rickie Lambert and Osvaldo give the team an offensive quality that West Ham can only dream about right now. So, I expect West Ham to take a quite defensive approach today and only try to score on a counter move or set piece, but that shouldn't be a problem for Southampton, as the team under Mauricio Pochettino has become a "continental" team, who likes to take control of the ball (53%, 67% and 58% ball possession on the first three games), so they won't have problems in controlling the game and getting some scoring chances. Southampton won't have problems in having the ball on their attacking midfield, with Osvaldo and Lambert creating chances for them to score. This will contrast a lot with the non-existent West Ham offense that will also face an underrated Southampton defense that has allowed only two goals in three games.

Therefore, I give Southampton a 60% chances of winning today, something that gives us enough value to take them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on Southampton ML @ -120

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Chase for the Cup starts Sunday in Chicago
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
GEICO 400

Sunday, September 15 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Chicagoland Speedway – Joliet, IL
The Chase for the Cup is finally here as 12 drivers being a 10-race circuit to determine this year’s points champion. The Chase opens in Chicago on Sunday, marking the first daytime race in four weeks. Chicagoland Speedway is an intermediate track that was completed in 2000. Its configuration is a 1½-mile tri-oval shaped track with 18-degree banking on the turns, 11-degree banking on the 2,400-foot frontstretch and five-degree banking on the backstretch, which measures 1,700 feet. Brad Keselowski is the defending champion of this race.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Jimmie Johnson 9-to-2
Matt Kenseth 6-to-1
Kasey Kahne 7-to-1
Kyle Busch 7-to-1
Carl Edwards 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 10-to-1
Brad Keselowski 12-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 15-to-1
Joey Logano 15-to-1
Jeff Gordon 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Denny Hamlin 20-to-1
Ryan Newman 25-to-1
Brian Vickers 30-to-1
Jamie McMurray 50-to-1
Juan Montoya 75-to-1
Mark Martin 75-to-1
Danica Patrick 100-to-1
Paul Menard 100-to-1
A.J. Allmendinger 100-to-1
Jeff Burton 100-to-1
Aric Almirola 100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 100-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. 100-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - In seven career races at Chicago, Bowyer has finished outside the top-10 only once, back in 2008 (22nd place). He's also raced very well on other 1.5-mile tracks recently, finishing 5th at Kansas, 8th at Charlotte and 3rd and Kentucky before engine failure ended his day in Atlanta in a race he led for 48 laps. Bowyer has yet to taste victory in 2013, but with a hefty eight top-5 finishes this season, he’s our pick to finally take home the checkered flag on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (6/1) - The 1.5-mile track specialist has won two of the past four races at this distance, taking the checkered flag both in Kansas and Kentucky as part of his five wins in 2013. Kenseth has yet to win in 12 starts at Chicagoland, but he does have four top-7 finishes including two runner-ups at this track. He's also put himself in great starting position in the past two races at this venue, winning a pole and starting from the No. 3 spot which propelled him to a combined 48 laps led. The payoff isn't too favorable, but Kenseth is still worthy of a good-sized wager for Sunday's race.

Ryan Newman (25/1) - Newman may be fortunate to join the Chase for the Cup group, but he is determined to show he belongs among these dozen drivers. Not only has he placed eighth or better in three of his past four starts at this track, but Newman tested at Chicagoland earlier this year. He's also been strong in the past four 1.5-mile tracks with an average finish of 9.8, most recently coming in fifth place in Atlanta. This was part of his four top-5's in his past seven starts. At 25-to-1, Newman represents the best betting value on the board here.

Brad Keselowski (12/1) - He may not be able to defend his points title, but Keselowski has a great chance to repeat his Chicagoland victory on Sunday. In addition to that win, he also placed fifth at Chicagoland Speedway in 2011. And although he has finished poorly in his past three races (27.3 average finish), taking himself out of Chase contention, Keselowski has qualified pretty well lately with top-12 starts in seven of his past eight races. With no more pressure to worry about his place in the standings, the No. 2 car has no reason to play it safe and should be near the front of the pack all day on Sunday. With double-digit odds, he's worthy of a small wager.

Aric Almirola (100/1) - As longshots go, Almirola appears to be the only triple-digit wager worth looking at this weekend. He's placed among the top-15 in two of the past four races on 1.5-mile tracks and he did test at Chicago in late August. Although he placed 17th in his lone Chicagoland start last year, remember that Almirola started second and led for three laps. He's also placed among the top-20 drivers in each of his past 10 starts this season that didn't end in a crash. Don't spend more than one unit on the 29-year-old, but the jackpot here is too substantial to completely ignore Almirola.

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Baseball Crusher
Washington Nationals -1.5 over Philadelphia Phillies
(System Record: 77-7, won last game)
Overall Record: 77-86-2

Football Crusher
Kansas City Chiefs -155 over Dallas Cowboys
(System Record: 14-0, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 14-8

Soccer Crusher
Atletico Rafaela + Estudiantes LP UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 454-15, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 454-393-61

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Prediction Machine

Matchup Line Pick Pick%
WAS @ GB 49 Over 59.4
MIA @ IND 42.5 Over 57.1
SD @ PHI 54.5 Under 56.9
DAL @ KC 46.5 Over 56.3
DEN @ NYG 55 Under 55.9
MIN @ CHI 42 Over 54.7
CLE @ BAL 43.5 Under 53.8
NO @ TB 47 Over 53.6
TEN @ HOU 43 Under 53.5
SF @ SEA 44.5 Over 53.2
CAR @ BUF 44 Over 53.2
DET @ ARI 47.5 Under 51.8
STL @ ATL 47.5 Under 51.2
JAC @ OAK 39.5 Over 51

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Hank Goldberg

balt 27 cle 13
hou 28 ten 12
gb 31 wash 20
chi 27 min 16
sea 24 sf 17

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Mighty Quinn

---

7-8-1 last week
0-1 last best bet

Denver
Philly
Browns
Houston
Miami
Panthers-best bet
Atl
Packers
Kc
Minny
No
Det
Jags
49ers

Cinny

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Gold Medal Club Selections 15/09/2013
NFL:
#203 Carolina -3
#205 St. Louis +5.5
#214 Tampa Bay +3
#220 NY Giants +4.5

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Gary Meyers
Upset Special

Titans

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Sports Betting Professor Original NFL 9/15/13

209. Dallas Cowboys +3.5* (the line is +3 but since nearly 16% of all NFL games land on 3 the system recommends buying a 1/2 point in this scenario)

2013 Sports Betting Professor NFL Original System
System (3-gm chase): 2-0
Overall Picks: 3-1, +1.9 units
System Plays straight up: 2-0, +2.0 units
'Other' Plays straight up: 1-1, -0.1 units
Fade all plays straight up: 1-3, -2.3 units

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Rockys Winners Circle Newsletter

SYSTEMS PLAYS OF THE WEEK
PLAY ANY NFL ROAD DOGS +7 or more on GRASS, coming in off a road game as dog
48-9 ATS last 57 (84% WINS)
PLAY MINNESOTA VIKINGS +7 at Chicago

OVER - UNDER PLAY OF THE WEEK
PLAY UNDER when teams are favored –3 or less vs non divisional opponents and this
weeks posted total is (40) or more—91% LAST 32
ARIZONA—DETROIT - UNDER

NEAR PERFECT
SUPER SYSTEM PLAY
PLAY AGAINST ANY NFL NON DIVISIONAL HOME TEAM FAVORITE (-10) OR LESS, off a Sunday underdog outright loss of less than 39 points, vs an opponent who is off an OUTRIGHT underdog loss.
THIS WEEKS SELECTION IS
JACKSONVILLE +7 at Oakland Raiders.

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POWERSWEEP

KEY SELECTIONS

4* New Orleans by 13 over TAMPA BAY

3* HOUSTON by 16 over Tennessee

OTHER SELECTION

2* Detroit by 12 over ARIZONA

SYSTEM
Go against a road team that allowed 10 or less in a road win.
2010-2012 12-4-1 75%
THIS WEEKS PLAY:
against: MIAMI
PLAY ON: INDIANAPOLIS

NFL OVER/UNDERS
Our Over/Under Section is in its 26th season. Each week we list the Top 5 plays as of Sunday Night. *est line.

3* DAL/KC - Under 43*

3* STL/ATL - Under 47

3* DET/ARZ - Over 47

2* CAR/BUF - Under 44’

2* DEN/NYG - Over 45*

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Powerplays

pro-football

3* ravens 27 browns 18

3* panthers 21 bills 14

no play: Falcons 24 rams 15
4* falcons/rams - under

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

3★ BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over San Diego by 1
The Philadelphia Ducks, err Eagles, return home off Monday night’s
Washington whipping, making Chip Kelly’s debut a smashing
success. Next order of business for the mighty ducks (damn, there’s
that Chip notion, again) is trying to tame a team from the wild,
wild west, a task at which the Eagles have failed miserably in the
past, going just 2-12-1 ATS in games off a SUATS win against the
AFC West. Then again this is not the same Andy Reid team that
Philadelphians had come to love-hate-love in the past. On the down
side, the Chargers will look to regroup after blowing a 28-7 lead to
the Texans. That may prove diffi cult against the frenetic pace of this
fast-forward foe. No, we’re not about to jump off the Kelly Express
anytime soon. Not with Philly 10-2 SUATS in games after Redskins
rumbles. And not with home teams standing 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS
in non-division clashes off a Monday night divisional upset win the
last eight years. The Kelly love-fest continues in the city of Brotherly
Love. The clincher: San Diego is 0-7 SUATS in its fi rst trip east
the last seven seasons.

4★ BEST BET
Minnesota over CHICAGO by 6
The Bears got what they wanted on opening day… and the
Vikings did not. Hence, an ideal setup for Minnesota in this already
pivotal Game Two matchup. Our well-oiled machine agrees, too,
noting that since 2000 new NFL coaches in a divisional Game Two
matchup are just 5-9 SU and 4-9-1 ATS when off a win, including
2-7 SU and 1-7-1 ATS when the foe is off a loss. Minny’s mighty
6-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or less points against opponents off
a win fi ts, too, as does its 4-0 ATS record in games after allowing
28 or more points during the fi rst four games of the season. New
head coach Marc Trestman won’t like hearing this, but the Bears
are 1-8-1 ATS laying points at home off a home game. Nor the fact
that his quarterback, Jay Cutler, is just 5-15-1 ATS as a home favorite
off a win, including 2-10-1 ATS versus an opponent off a loss. The
Clincher: Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier is 10-4-1 ATS as
a dog in games against an opponent off a win, including 6-0
SUATS the last six.

5★ BEST BET
NY GIANTS over Denver by 7
Manning Bowl III kicks off at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford
this Sunday. If you haven’t got a ticket, you can likely forget about
it (word is seats at midfi eld are going for over $6000 apiece). And
if you don’t tune in this week you may have to wait until the next
regularly scheduled rematch in 2017 (when Peyton will be 41). For
now it’s Eli’s turn to shift the spotlight back on himself, and if hunger
and motivation are deciding edges, then the Giants are in good
hands. For openers, Eli took it on the chin in both previous meetings
against Peyton – a 26-21 loss at Giants Stadium in 2006 and a 38-14
shellacking in Indianapolis in 2010. Today, Eli catches Peyton off a
career-best 7 TD effort in a huge season-opening playoff revenge win
over Baltimore, while the G-Men limp home off an agonizing 5-point
loss at Dallas (New York dominated on the fi eld, winning the game
by 147 yards in a 6-turnover marred effort). Eli brings a sterling 19-12
SU and 17-13-1 ATS mark at home in games off a loss, including 4-0
SUATS the last four, in his career. On the fl ip side, non-division road
teams in Game Two off a SUATS win in which they scored 40 or more
points are 1-8 ATS when facing a foe off a loss. Oh brother, this one
goes to the kid. The Clincher: Eli Manning is 33-21-2 ATS as a dog
in the NFL, including 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS the last ten.