9-15-13

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POINTWISE

NFL KEY RELEASES

OAKLAND over Jacksonville
RATING: 3

MINNESOTA over Chicago
RATING: 3

ARIZONA over Detroit
RATING: 4

PITTSBURGH over Cincinnati
RATING: 5

TAMPA BAY over New Orleans
RATING: 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER

BEST BET
*BALTIMORE over CLEVELAND by 19
Optimism means very little when accompanied by a game plan that calls for
Brandon Weeden to throw the ball 59 times. If the Browns have brains they’ll
be looking to balance out the offense this week with a healthier dose of Trent
Richardson, who just happens to be their best offensive player, but will the run
game be effective against the Ravens? Sure, Peyton Manning threw for seven
touchdowns, so the Broncos didn’t need to run the ball against Baltimore,
but personnel and logic dictate that the Ravens front seven should be able to
corral the Browns enough to give Joe Flacco time to throw the ball. To who?
It almost seems like Baltimore’s down to Torrey Smith and the three guys
from your local YMCA catching the ball, but the defending champions have a
few extra days to prepare for a divisional opponent they’ve played pretty well
in recent years. The one exception would be the seven-point “squeaker” in
week four of last year, but we’ll cut them some slack for playing four games
in seventeen days. Roger Goodell would like to welcome you to the new, safer
NFL. Based on the opening line, a good team comes home to hunker down
with an extra two days between games, and lay less than a touchdown off an
embarrassing defeat.
BALTIMORE, 35-16.

RECOMMENDED
ST. LOUIS over *ATLANTA by 3
A 6-point head start with Jeff Fisher as your coach? That’s usually a nice
thing to have. Atlanta scored only 17 points against a schemed-up Saints defense, was just 2-for-10 on third down. Atlanta loves to hog the clock, but had
the football for only 24:59 vs. the Saints. Can the Falcons re-claim the clock
against the Rams? Possibly. They are back to playing in their own noisy dome
instead of New Orleans’, and the Rams are now playing in somebody else’s
noisy dome instead of their own. But the Rams have a better defensive front
than the Saints, and the St. Louis offense will welcome back RB Isiah Pead,
who sat out the 27-24 win against Arizona with a suspension, leaving 20
carries to Daryl Richardson of Abilene Christian College. Rattle the Falcons’
QB Matt Ryan early, and Matty Ice melts a little bit. The Rams sacked Carson
Palmer four times and if they average four per game this season, they’ll lead
the NFL in that department when the season is over. Their defense can struggle against good play-fakes but at least they have a coordinator this season
and it’s not like the Falcons have a lock-down defense.
ST. LOUIS, 27-24.

BEST BET
*KANSAS CITY over DALLAS by 14
This Dallas defense can probably be beaten with a decent, grinding running
game that doesn’t fumble the ball. It’s in the NFL textbook in the Chapter,
“How to Beat Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2.” Unfortunately for the New York alleged
Football Giants, they don’t have a good run-blocking line, and their 2012 #1
draft choice, who is now their #1 running back, can’t hold onto the football
or block well on pass plays. Also, the Giants’ offensive coordinator must have
been campaigning for Moron Club President calling screen passes for interceptions. The Cowboys were gunning for the Giants, got a series of gifts
from them (6 turnovers!), yet still struggled to put them away. Their coaching staff doesn’t know the Kansas City personnel. They see KC once every
four years. Tony Romo against an unfamiliar defense? No, thanks! Andy Reid,
first-season Chiefs head coach? He knows the Dallas personnel. He faced
the Cowboys twice a year with the Eagles. With the Chiefs, he has a fair-togood rushing team that didn’t have to show much after jumping out to a lead
against sad-sack Jacksonville last Sunday. He has to feel that the KC rushing
attack can dominate the proceedings, given the Dallas defensive transition.
Brandon Carr, ex-Chief cornerback now a Cowboy, will be forced to play zone
D and the run instead of press coverage, his strength.
KANSAS CITY, 31-17.

RECOMMENDED
*TAMPA BAY over NEW ORLEANS by 6
The Bucs will be everyone’s favorite “What a bunch of losers!” team this week
after failing to beat the clownie Jets via overall stupidity. But the Jets were
the home dog with the better defense. What happens when you go against
the home dog with the better defense, especially if you’re Sports Reporter
and you usually like home dogs with the better defense? You don’t win. Here,
the Bucs are a double-revenge home dog with the better defense. So we’ll
get back on that track. Their offense faces a softer defensive front than last
week. RB Doug Martin should be a producer, instead of being negated. Drew
Brees and the New Orleans offense leave the comfort of their home-dome,
and the Saints’ defense has to deal with the heat and humidity outdoors, instead of having a 12th man (crowd noise) on their side in a climate-controlled
environment. For Tampa, losing a non-conference road game isn’t the end of
the world. The Bucs were –5 in Turnover Ratio in the 41-0 second loss to the
Saints last season. Not cleaning up that mess and not getting revenge against
this division rival would be the end of the world.
TAMPA BAY, 27-21.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

****BEST BET
*Arizona over Detroit by 18
Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush give Detroit lots of firepower.
The Lions have an excellent defensive front, too. What the Lions don't have under
Jim Schwartz is discipline, mental strength and the poise to win a tough road game
against an improved Arizona squad. Arizona has won nine of its last 13 home
games. The Cardinals' defense is underrated. Their defensive front can apply pressure and their secondary has playmakers. Offensive whiz Bruce Arians is the new
coach. Carson Palmer gives the Cardinals their best quarterback since Kurt Warner.
The combination of Arians, Palmer and All-World wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald
can take advantage of a porous Lions secondary. It's not just Fitzgerald anymore
either. The Cardinals have two other good wideouts, Andre Roberts and a muchimproved Michael Floyd. Arizona's ground attack is improved, too, with Rashard
Mendenhall as the lead back. The Cardinals are better coached than the Lions and
are home on grass. The Lions are a turf team. Playing on grass slows them up. The
Cardinals opened with victories against Seattle, New England and Philadelphia last
year. They should have won their opener this past Sunday, but did get the cover
against St. Louis. The Lions and Cardinals met last year in Week 15 in the desert
when Arizona was in the midst of a nine-game losing streak. The Cardinals ended
their loss streak by blasting the Lions, 38-10. The Lions have shown their lack of
guts losing 10 of their last 13 away matchups. Their only three road victories during this span were against Jacksonville and Philadelphia last year and Oakland by
one point in 2011.
ARIZONA 35-17.

***BEST BET
St. Louis over *Atlanta by 10
No team has ever won back to back NFC South Division titles. Defending champion Atlanta may put an end to that streak. Right now, though, the Falcons aren't
showing enough to end that jinx. The Falcons remain soft on defense. They had
just 29 sacks last year and only got to Drew Brees twice in last Sunday's loss to the
Saints. Tony Gonzalez is another year older and Roddy White is playing with a
high ankle sprain that limits his effectiveness. The Falcons' worst problem, though,
is an offensive line that remains a work in progress with several new starters. The
Rams tied for the lead league in sacks last year with 51. Robert Quinn, an emerging star, sacked Carson Palmer three times last week. The Rams have gotten a lot
tougher under Jeff Fisher. They are more poised, too. The Rams proved they can
beat elite teams last year knocking off Seattle and not losing to the 49ers in two
meetings. They are very familiar with the Falcons' newest tailback former Ram
Steven Jackson. St. Louis is at its best in an underdog role covering 12 of the past
15 times for 80 percent. Fisher improved St. Louis' defense last year during his first
season. Now he's working on the offense, which has gotten a lot faster. The Rams
put up 27 points on a solid Arizona defense despite not playing well. Sam Bradford
is ready to turn the corner now that he has the fastest wideouts and tight ends he's
ever had during his four years with the Rams. Tight end Jared Cook, Chris Givens
and rookie Tavon Austin are all potential breakout stars. Look for the Rams to be
much sharper that they were in Week 1.
ST. LOUIS 38-28.

**PREFERRED
*Baltimore over Cleveland by 17
Supposedly the Browns have better talent this year. Supposedly Brandon Weeden
has better coaching so he'll be improved. Supposedly Trent Richardson is ready to
achieve superstar status. Right now, however, the Browns remain … well the
Browns and that is dreadful. The Ravens have owned the Browns beating them 10
times in a row, covering 70 percent of the games. Only three of the last 10 have
been decided by a touchdown or less. The defending Super Bowl champions have
had extra days to stew after being humiliated by Petyon Manning on national television last Thursday. Baltimore's defense is much better than it showed against a
hot Manning. It has more quickness and pass rushing potential with Elvis
Dumervil added and Terrell Suggs healthy. The Ravens defense can dominate the
Browns' pop-gun attack, which won't have their most talented wide receiver, Josh
Gordon, until Week 3 when his suspension is lifted. Weeden looked better during
preseason firing three touchdown passes without an interception. But then at
home against Miami in Week 1 he reverted back to rookie form throwing three
interceptions. Cleveland's offensive line completely caved in against Miami. That's
not a good sign when going into Baltimore's intimidating home field. Joe Flacco
has fired 13 touchdown passes with just two interceptions during his last five
games, all against defenses better than Cleveland's.
BALTIMORE 27-10.

*Seattle over San Francisco by 12
It's not just historically that the losing Super Bowl team has problems the following season. We're fading San Francisco in this spot because the 49ers have wide
receiver injuries, are going against a great secondary and trying to win at the loudest and toughest outdoor road venue in the league. The Seahawks are 10-0 SU, 9-
1 ATS in their last 10 home games, including going 8-0 at home last season covering all but one of their matchups at CenturyLink Field. Their most impressive
victory was a 42-13 thrashing of the 49ers, San Francisco's worst loss of the season. Kept under wraps by Pete Carroll during the first half of last season, Russell
Wilson has completed 65 percent of his throws during the last 14 games with a 25-
to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's also added five rushing scores. Colin
Kaepernick has been hot, too, but he's without his No. 1 wideout (Michael
Crabtree) and No. 3 wide receiver (Mario Manningham). The 49ers were hit harder than Seattle in free agency, too, losing star safety Dashon Goldson. Kaepernick
is a dangerous runner with a big arm. Accuracy-wise, though, he's a work in
progress. The Seahawks have big hitting safeties and excellent cover cornerbacks.
Their run defense is stout, too. Marshawn Lynch is in his prime, while the 49ers'
Frank Gore is going downhill.
SEATTLE 28-16.

OVER/UNDER

**OVER: St. Louis at Atlanta – The Falcons can score against any team,
while the Rams have upgraded their weapons and are used to playing inside a dome
setting, which enhances their new found speed.

UNDER: Miami at Indianapolis – The Colts have an underrated defense
that can match up well to a pedestrian Miami offense, while Dolphins star pass
rusher Cameron Wake can pressure Andrew Luck.

UNDER: Minnesota at Chicago – The Vikings are outdoors where their
lack of a vertical passing game is exposed even more, while Jay Cutler is still picking up the Bears' new offense and facing a fierce Minnesota pass rush headed by Jared Allen.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Rosica

80 Dime Winner
# 5 out of 6!

Baltimore Ravens

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Al DeMarco

15 Dime NFL Winner # 3 in a Row

Bounce Back Lock

Atlanta Falcons

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CHRIS JORDAN

400 Eagles

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Norm Hitzges late selections

September 15, 2013Consensus Selections from Handicappers Around the Nation
VERY STRONG: NONE

STRONG: Baltimore -7 Cleveland

REGULAR: Miami +3 Indy
Arizona +2 Detroit
NY Giants +4 Denver
Green Bay -7 Washington
Seattle -3 San Fran
Miami--Indy UNDER 43

NORM'S LATE THOUGHTS: The more I look at Philly and San Diego the more this appears to be a real shootout. SD's total breakdown defensively last week against a less threatening Houston team signals some weakness on that side of the ball. Meanwhile, Philly's "D" also struggled late versus Washington. So:
Take Philly---San Diego OVER 54 1/2

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Tony del Cards + points

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Vince taylor Saints

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Phil v

Giants

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bob balfe

baltimore

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sixth sense

over det
pitt

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Hondo
1-2 last week -Best Bets

Giants
Bills
Atl

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HSW early phone

no saints

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Fezzik Best Bet Total
215 DET/216 ARI Over 47.5 Hilton