9-16-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Texas A&M tumbles in BCS futures odds after Alabama loss

Texas A&M’s BCS title hopes were likely dashed after losing 49-42 to Alabama Saturday, forcing oddsmakers to dramatically discount the Aggies' national championship odds.

Texas A&M dropped from 20-1 to 100-1 to win the BCS title at the LVH Superbook in Las Vegas Monday morning. Alabama, the outright favorite to win its third straight national championship, was trimmed from 5-2 to 7-4 after the Week 3 win.

Other notable adjustments to the BCS futures odds included Oregon moving from 9-2 to 4-1, LSU going from 20-1 to 12-1, UCLA from 40-1 to 25-1, Wisconsin 60-1 to 1,000-1, Washington 100-1 to 60-1, and Texas Tech jumping from 1,000-1 to 500-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where the action is: Bengals money could move spread to TD

The AFC North headlines the final game of Week 2. Pittsburgh travels to Cincinnati as a near-touchdown underdog on Monday Night Football with both teams trying to avoid a 0-2 start to the season.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action on the Monday nighter and where the odds could end up come the 8:40 p.m. ET kickoff:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -6.5, Move: -7, Move: -6.5

The Steelers have had a dark cloud over them since going 0-4 in the preseason and falling to Tennessee in Week 1. Pittsburgh is also down its starting center Maurkice Pouncey, which forced early action to fade the road side Monday. That moved the spread to Bengals -7, and wiseguys immediately leapt at that key number.

“We were forced to go to Bengals -7 because of the money flooding in on the Bengals. But on Saturday, we booked very sharp action on the Steelers at +7 and instantly went back to Bengals -6.5, a number we dealt up until late Sunday night,” Stewart tells Covers. “As we did earlier in the week, since going back to Bengals 6.5 we've seen nothing but Bengal money.”

Stewart says 75 percent of the action is riding on the home team and while they have adjusted the juice on the Cincinnati side (-115 to -120) in hopes of balancing the action, a move back to a touchdown may not be out of the question.

“At some point today and we might, might be forced to go back to -7 if our bettors keep pounding the favorite,” he says.

As for the total, books opened the number at 40.5 with these teams boasting two of the better defensive units in the NFL. That total has bounced between 41 and 40 heading into Monday’s kickoff.

“We've booked nothing but dead even action on this total and I don't see it move much off the 41,” says Stewart.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff white

2 units cincy/Pitt under 41

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

Monday Football


· Play Cincinnati -6 over Pittsburgh (TOP NFL PLAY)
8:30 PM EST

Cincinnati has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have also covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games coming off a non-conference game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RTG Sports

2-Team 7 Point Teaser -130*

Pittsburgh Steelers +14

Under 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

IveyWalters

2% Cincinnati Bengals -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff white
Prosportshandicappers
2 units under 41 cincy/pit

2 units Cincy-6.5

2 units Royals-150

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton Your Monday Winner...

Monday winner is a 60 Dime relwase on the the visiteing Pittsburgh Steelers and the host Cincinnati Bengals to hold Under the poested total. At 7:05 pm Vegas time on Sunday night when I release this selecsion, the total on this game stands at 41 under, -110.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASA's Pick Pack
NFL Monday Picks

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Cincinnati (-6 -110)
Line Source: Bookmaker
Posted on: September 16, 2013 @ 12:15:00 PM EDT

Both AFC North rivals are off of a loss and both had very different feeling losses. The Bengals played well at Chicago. They outgained and had more first downs than the Bears and held an 11-point lead late in the third quarter. A handful of bad plays (three turnovers) ultimately gave Chicago the chance for a comeback win. It was still a promising first game from the Bengals. QB Andy Dalton completed 26-of-33 passes for 282 yards and two scores. Both of his touchdown passes went to WR Green, who tallied 162 yards on nine catches. Defensively the Bengals allowed Chicago to rush for just 81 yards on 28 carries (2.9 YPC). Though Chicago came up just short of a victory, going on the road and losing by three points to a team that finished 10-6 last year isn’t demoralizing. Pittsburgh had a different kind of defeat. The Steelers lost at home to Tennessee, 16-9. They had just 195 total yards against Tennessee and didn’t record an offensive touchdown until 1:23 remaining in the game. They had just 32 rushing yards, had two turnovers, and allowed five sacks. All-Pro center Maurkice Pouncey, starting MLB Larry Foote, and utility RB Larod Stephens-Howling all went down with injuries and will be out for the season. The loss of Pouncey will be a major hit. He was arguably the best center in the league and made calls and adjustments for this already shaky offensive line. Not to mention he’s a mauler in the run game. He will be missed, especially considering the Steelers now have to visit Cincinnati and play against one of the defensive lines. Cincinnati, led by DT Geno Atkins and DE Michael Johnson, will not have to send extra defenders to get pressure on Roethlisberger. Expect a dominant day from this defensive front and for them to cause a few Roethlisberger turnovers. Pittsburgh is an aging team that is headed in the wrong direction. Their depth is already being tested and there aren’t enough weapons on the offense. Cincinnati will prove that on Monday night. Take the Bengals minus the points at home.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ed Meyer's Pick Pack
NFL Monday Picks

Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Pittsburgh (+7 -120)
Line Source: Mirage-MGM
Posted on: September 16, 2013 @ 9:02:31 AM EDT

This will be a battle of mental toughness as much as it is physical toughness. We’re siding with the Steelers. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this one in their opener vs the Titans. Regardless, it looks like the Titans are a solid team, as they took the Texans to overtime yesterday.
In a battle of wits between Tomlin and Lewis, Marvin Lewis is overmatched and the Steelers have demonstrated resiliency in this spot. This millennium, the Steelers are a perfect 9-0 as a 4-plus point dog vs a divisional opponent. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Steelers and line>=4 and DIV and season>=2000
Also, the Steelers are 6-0 ATS as a road dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least plus-two
The Bengals are 0-6 ATS after a road loss in which they had a reception of 40-plus yards, with the SDQL text:
team=Bengals and max:p:longest reception>=40 and p:AL and date>=20101010
And they are 0-6 ATS after a road loss in which they outgained their opponent, as can be seen with this SDQL text:
team=Bengals and HF and p:L and p:TY>po:TY and season>=2009
There is nothing wrong with the Steelers’ defense and the Bengals have had trouble vs similar teams. Cincinnati is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite vs a team that has allowed less than 3.5 yards per carry season-to-date, as long as they have more than three days rest. The SDQL text is: team=Bengals and HF and oS(o:RY)/oS(o:rushes)<3.5 and rest>3 and season>=1998
Note that the Bengals have scored an average of 11.5 ppg in this spot.
Finally, Cincinnati has demonstrated their lack of mental toughness in this spot, as they are 0-9 ATS AT HOME when they are off a 1-3 point loss as a dog. Check it out with this SDQL text:
team=Bengals and H and -3<=p:margin<0 and p:D and season>=1999
Note that Cincinnati’s only straight up win came by a 17-10 margin laying 13.
The Steelers have been in this spot before. Their backs are against the wall. They are in the national spotlight. They are on the road. They are the underdog. They are facing a divisional rival. We’re grabbing the points – the Bengals should have a tough time getting to 17 points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TMC Sports Advisors

Tigers Detroit -1.5 -110

Padres/Pirates Under 7

Phillies -1.5 -110

Rays Tampa Bay -130

NFL

Pittsburgh/Cincinnati Over 40

Bengals Cincinnati -6.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SDL SPORTS

5* Bengals-6.5
3* Royals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

spartan MLB Money Line Mon, 09/16/13 - 8:10 PM

dime bet - 917 CLE (+136) vs 918 KAN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wolkosky Milan

NFL: 7-9 (+20 Units)
2-5 yesterday

50* PITTSBURGH STEELERS +7
20* BENGALS / STEELERS OVER 41

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sports Cash System Play of The Day for Today: 9/16

Cincinnati Bengals -6.5 (buy half point to -6) over the Pittsburgh Steelers (NFL Football)
(System Record: 139-5, Won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 139-122


Also, listed below is your bonus extra picks for today:


Washington Nationals -111 over the Atlanta Braves (MLB Baseball)

Tampa Bay Rays -129 over the Texas Rangers (MLB Baseball)

Los Angeles Dodgers -103 over the Arizona Diamondbacks (MLB Baseball)