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Joe Gavazzi
NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh at Cincinatti (-7/40-) 8:40 ET ESPN
5* Pittsburgh
Cincinnati had a strong second half last year with a 7-1 SU ATS season. It was fueled in part by significant defensive improvement that saw the Bengals allow just 13 PPG. It led to a consecutive playoff appearance and a 19-13 loss at Houston. With great year over year continuity in their roster, much was expected from the Bengals in their 11th year under HC Lewis. When the Bengals led the Bears in the 2d half of last weeks game, it looked like the pundits were correct. But the Bengals got caught reading their press clippings, and lost that game 24-21. Now, after blowing the 21-10 3d quarter lead last week, they return home in a bad historical role. Under Lewis, the Bengals are 29-42 ATS/L and 33-46 ATS at home. They have had little success against the Steelers on this field under Lewis. In fact, Cincinnati is 1-11 ATS at this site. What is unique about todays line is that the Steelers were the favorite at this site each of the last 6 years. You can see from the huge line adjustment that the Steelers ineptitude of late has been well adjusted. Last week, Pittsburgh hit the nadir of their discontent in a rare home opener loss. This proud franchise did not score an offensive TD for the first 59 minutes of the contest. The resulting 16-9 loss showed Pittsburgh to be outrushed 42/112 to 15/32 with a -2 TO margin. It dropped the Steelers record since the midpoint of 2012 to 2-10 SU ATS (including the collar in preseason play this year). The Steelers ineptitude at the point of attack pointed out continuing failings in their OL. Injury was added to insult with the loss of All-Pro (C) Pouncey. He has been replaced on the roster with Fernando Volasco, an NFL veteran, most recently with Tennessee, who is expected to provide a measure of stability for the young OL. Also lost, in last weeks fray, was (LB) Foote, the defensive signal caller. He will be replaced by inexperienced Kion Wilson. RB Dwyer, last years leading rusher who was cut just prior to the season, has been recalled to replace the injured Stephens-Howling. Those are all new players who need to be integrated into their respective positions which could well take time to show a flow on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. As if the Steelers do not have enough motivation from last weeks embarrassing home opener, consider that late last season they lost on their home field to Cincinnati 22-13, a defeat that knocked them out of the playoffs. It sure would have been nice if the Bengals had held on for the victory last week. But the huge line adjustment combines with the history and emotional motivation of the Steelers to take this one to the final whistle. Contrary call with great line value on Pittsburgh.
NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Pittsburgh at Cincinatti (-7/40-) 8:40 ET ESPN
5* Pittsburgh
Cincinnati had a strong second half last year with a 7-1 SU ATS season. It was fueled in part by significant defensive improvement that saw the Bengals allow just 13 PPG. It led to a consecutive playoff appearance and a 19-13 loss at Houston. With great year over year continuity in their roster, much was expected from the Bengals in their 11th year under HC Lewis. When the Bengals led the Bears in the 2d half of last weeks game, it looked like the pundits were correct. But the Bengals got caught reading their press clippings, and lost that game 24-21. Now, after blowing the 21-10 3d quarter lead last week, they return home in a bad historical role. Under Lewis, the Bengals are 29-42 ATS/L and 33-46 ATS at home. They have had little success against the Steelers on this field under Lewis. In fact, Cincinnati is 1-11 ATS at this site. What is unique about todays line is that the Steelers were the favorite at this site each of the last 6 years. You can see from the huge line adjustment that the Steelers ineptitude of late has been well adjusted. Last week, Pittsburgh hit the nadir of their discontent in a rare home opener loss. This proud franchise did not score an offensive TD for the first 59 minutes of the contest. The resulting 16-9 loss showed Pittsburgh to be outrushed 42/112 to 15/32 with a -2 TO margin. It dropped the Steelers record since the midpoint of 2012 to 2-10 SU ATS (including the collar in preseason play this year). The Steelers ineptitude at the point of attack pointed out continuing failings in their OL. Injury was added to insult with the loss of All-Pro (C) Pouncey. He has been replaced on the roster with Fernando Volasco, an NFL veteran, most recently with Tennessee, who is expected to provide a measure of stability for the young OL. Also lost, in last weeks fray, was (LB) Foote, the defensive signal caller. He will be replaced by inexperienced Kion Wilson. RB Dwyer, last years leading rusher who was cut just prior to the season, has been recalled to replace the injured Stephens-Howling. Those are all new players who need to be integrated into their respective positions which could well take time to show a flow on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball. As if the Steelers do not have enough motivation from last weeks embarrassing home opener, consider that late last season they lost on their home field to Cincinnati 22-13, a defeat that knocked them out of the playoffs. It sure would have been nice if the Bengals had held on for the victory last week. But the huge line adjustment combines with the history and emotional motivation of the Steelers to take this one to the final whistle. Contrary call with great line value on Pittsburgh.
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