9-29-13

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Cleveland Insider

MLS
1* Portland/Los Angeles under 2.5

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Teddy Covers
20* Big Ticket: Tampa Bay -2.5
10* Denver Over 57.5
10* New England +1.5

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Stephen Nover

ML 210 TAM vs 209 ARI double-dime bet

211 CHI / 212 DET OVER 47.5 triple-dime bet

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INTPICKS

NFL

1:00 PM ET
2 Stars
Chicago @ Detroit
Take Chicago +3

*Parlay Alert (1 Star recommended): Chicago +3 & Over 47 (pays +292)

2 Stars
Cincinnati @ Cleveland
Take Cleveland +4

1 Star
Baltimore @ Buffalo
Take Baltimore -3

4:05 PM ET
1 Star
NY Jets @ Tennessee Titans
Take NY Jets +3.5

4:25 PM ET
3 STARS
Philadelphia @ Denver
Take DENVER -11

8:30 PM ET
2 Stars
New England @ Atlanta
Take Atlanta -1.5

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Diamond Dog Sports

Over Vikings
Over Eagles
Under Falcons

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Cole is 3-0, 2.16 in his last four starts. Cueto is 1-0, 1.50 in his last two.
-- Teheran is 3-1, 3.16 in his last four starts. Miner is 0-0, 1.29 in two starts, but only pitched total of seven innings in the two games.
-- Estrada is 2-0, 2.08 in his last five starts. Niese is 2-1, 3.10 in his last three.
-- Miley is 2-0, 2.59 in his last four starts. Roark is 2-1, 2.74 in his four starts this season.
-- Ross is 1-0, 1.20 in his last couple starts.
-- Ryu is 2-2, 2.31 in his last four starts.

-- Verlander is 1-1, 2.75 in his last three starts. Alvarez is 1-2, 2.37 in his last three starts.

-- Moore is 2-1, 3.04 in his last five starts. Redmond is 1-0, 1.89 in last three.
-- Jimenez is 3-0, 1.30 in his last five starts.
-- Tillman is 2-2, 3.10 in his last four starts.
-- Quintana is 2-0, 1.33 in his last three starts.
-- Vargas is 1-0, 2.40 in his last two starts. Darvish is 1-2, 2.22 in his last four.
-- Griffin is 2-0, 3.94 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Samardzija is 0-1, 6.16 in his last five starts. Kelly is 1-2, 5.29 in his last three outings.
-- Moscoco allowed three runs in 4.2 IP in his only '13 start, August 4.
-- Francis is 0-2, 7.88 in his last three starts, last of which was June 18.

-- Lackey is 2-2, 4.98 in his last five starts.
-- Astros lost Bedard's last 11 starts (0-3, 6.82 in last six). Huff allowed four runs in 3.1 IP in his only '13 start.
-- Chen is 1-2, 7.54 in his last three starts.
-- Diamond is 1-3, 6.52 in his last five starts.
-- Ramirez is 0-1, 6.30 in his last couple starts.

Starting Pitchers/First Inning
You can wager on whether teams will score in the first inning. Below is how often a starting pitcher has allowed 1+ runs in first inning in one of his starts........
-- Estrada 4-20 (0 of last 5); Niese 6-23
-- Cole 7-18 (4 of last 5); Cueto 3-11
-- Miner 0-2; Teheran 10-29 (3 of last 5)
-- Samardzija 8-32 (1 of last 7); Kelly 2-15
-- Ross 5-15 (1 of last 6); Moscoso 1-1
-- Francis 6-11; Ryu 8-29 (4 of last 7)
-- Roark 2-4; Miley 10-27 (0 of last 4)

-- Verlander 9-33 (0 of last 5); Alvarez 4-15 (3 of last 5)

-- Moore 8-26; Redmond 2-13
-- Lackey 11-29 (1 of last 5); Tillman 8-32
-- Huff 0-1; Bedard 12-25
-- Chen 4-14; Quintana 11-32
-- Jimenez 6-31 (0 of last 9); Diamond 6-22 (0 of last 7)
-- Vargas 3-23 (1 of last 7); Darvish 11-30 (4 of last 5)
-- Gray 5-9; Ramirez 5-12 (1 of last 5)

Totals
-- Five of last seven Cincinnati games stayed under the total.
-- Last six Milwaukee games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 12-3-1 in last sixteen Atlanta games.
-- Under is 8-2-2 in last twelve Cub games.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in last eleven Washington games.
-- Six of last eight Dodger games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last nine San Francisco games stayed under total. Under is 11-4-1 in last sixteen San Diego games.

-- Last five Detroit games stayed under the total.

-- Over is 3-1 in last four games for both Rays, Jays
-- Last four Boston games went over the total.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Texas games.
-- Six of last nine Kansas City games stayed under; ten of last 13 White Sox games went over the total.
-- Last six Cleveland games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-1-1 in Bronx' last eleven games.
-- Eight of last ten Oakland games went over the total.

Hot teams
-- Pirates won seven of their last eight road games.
-- Milwaukee won six of its last seven games.
-- Atlanta is 4-0 in game following its last four wins.
-- Cardinals won seven of their last eight games.
-- San Francisco is 12-7 in its last 19 games, 9-5 in last fourteen at home. San Diego won three of its last four games.
-- Washington won its last two games, allowing four runs.

-- Miami won four of its last five games

-- Tampa Bay won 12 of its last 17 games.
-- Rangers won seven of their last eight games. Angels won 11 of their last 18.
-- Indians won ten of their last eleven games.
-- Bronx won three of its last four road games.

Cold teams
-- Cincinnati lost six of its last eight home games.
-- Phillies lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Mets lost their last three games, all by 4-2 scores.
-- Cubs lost nine of their last twelve games.
-- Arizona lost five of its last six games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven home games. Colorado lost four of its last six games overall.

-- Tigers lost four of their last six games.

-- Blue Jays are 7-11 in their last 18 games.
-- Orioles are 8-12 in their last 20 games. Boston is 5-5 in its last ten games and has already clinched the division and home field thru playoffs.
-- Mariners are 4-5 in their last nine games. Oakland lost three of last four.
-- White Sox lost 14 of their last 19 games. Royals lost three of last five.
-- Twins lost 15 of their last 18 games.
-- Astros lost their last 14 games, outscored 74-22.

Umpires
-- SD-SF-- Six of last eight Wolcott games went over the total.
-- Col-LA-- Favorites won ten of last eleven Davidson games.
-- Pitt-Cin-- Favorites won six of last seven Winters games.
-- Mil-NY-- Road team won seven of ten Reyburn games.
-- Phil-Atl-- Home team won five of last six Everitt games.
-- Chi-StL-- Underdogs won last ten Iassogna games.
-- Wsh-Az-- Last five HGibson games stayed under total.

-- Det-Mia-- Under is 8-4 in last twelve Kulpa games.

-- TB-Tor-- Favorites won last eight Schrieber games.
-- Cle-Min-- Last three GGibson games stayed under.
-- A's-Sea-- Seven of last nine Hudson games went over.
-- Bos-Blt-- Over is 6-2-1 in last nine O'Nora games.
-- NY-Hst-- 17 of last 22 Miller games stayed under total.
-- KC-Chi-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Conroy games.
-- LA-Tex-- Home teams won nine of last eleven Marquez games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Cleveland at Minnesota

The Indians look to clinch home field for the wild-card game and take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 3-15 in Scott Diamonds last 18 home starts. Cleveland is the pick (-200) according to Dunkel, which has the Indians favored by 3 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 29 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Estrada) 16.600; NY Mets (Niese) 15.154 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-115); Under

Game 953-954: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Cumpton) 16.206; Cincinnati (Reynolds) 14.525 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 955-956: Philadelphia at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Miner) 13.934; Atlanta (Teheran) 15.521 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 15.680; St. Louis (Westbrook) 14.468 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 959-960: San Diego at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Ross) 15.743; San Francisco (Moscoso) 14.799 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 8 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-105); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 13.763; LA Dodgers (Ryu) 15.352 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Washington at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Roark) 15.358; Arizona (Miley) 13.956 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Tampa Bay at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.253; Toronto (Redmond) 14.986 Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-175); 8 Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-175); Under

Game 967-968: Boston at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lackey) 16.601; Baltimore (Tillman) 15.274 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 969-970: NY Yankees at Houston (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Huff) 14.971; Houston (Bedard) 13.485 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-130); Over

Game 971-972: Kansas City at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 15.345; White Sox (Quintana) 14.218 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-110); Under

Game 973-974: Cleveland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 16.686; Minnesota (Diamond) 12.956 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-200); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-200); Under

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Vargas) 16.824; Texas (Darvish) 15.791 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Texas (-220); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (+180); N/A

Game 977-978: Oakland at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Gray) 17.532; Seattle (Ramirez) 16.239 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Oakland (-135); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-135); Under

Game 979-980: Detroit at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.252; Miami (Alvarez) 13.603 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Detroit (-165); 7 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-165); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1103-831 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Sun over the total 57 Eagles/Denver

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Sunday

Toronto +155

Angels +194

Indians -190

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Bob Balfe

Steelers -3 over Vikings
Minnesota lose to the Browns just showed you where that organization is at. Cleveland had a backup quarterback and no running back and went into Minnesota and won that game. The Vikings Defensive line just is not what it once was and this secondary is awful. To make matter worst this secondary is missing two starters today and it will be the Vikings with the new QB as Matt Cassel gets the start. Cassel is just not mobile enough to make plays against this Pittsburgh Defense. Both teams are 0-3, but the Steelers at least have injuries to blame. Who would have ever thought that Big Ben would be playing a football game in the city of London where the actual Big Ben Tower is? These fans don’t care about this game and there is just no upside of bringing these teams to Europe to play. Football will never beat Football (Soccer) in those countries. Pittsburgh has the better defense and should get the win today. Take the Steelers.

Colts/Jaguars Over 42
I am calling it right now the Jags will have a shot with the ball at the end of the game to win this game and this will be one of the more entertaining games today. Jacksonville has skilled players to move the football and this Colts Defense still is a work in progress moving to the 3-4. Last week the 49ers could not move the ball because they had no familiar offensive weapons in that system through the air. Jacksonville will look to take advantage of a banged up secondary and MJD should be productive on the ground running the ball. Indianapolis is lacking a real solid running game and I expect them just to throw the ball. The Jags are unfortunate to have two starters out in the secondary on top of already not having much skill there. If they all were healthy I would take a shot at the money line, but Luck is going to score points. I think this should be a very high scoring game. Take the Over.

Bears 2.5 over Lions
I will start with Detroit and why I don’t like them. Number one megatron is now the only weapon to catch the ball with Burleson out. The Bears ball hawking defense can put another guy on his and Reggie Bush is just not an every down back. Behind him there is no threat at all. This is a team that is usually so good with skilled players, but at this point in the season not so much. This Bears Defense can win the line of scrimmage and make Stafford a miserable guy today. Special Teams edge favors Chicago also. The Bears now have real legit size with their receivers and tight ends and this offensive line is doing a great job at protecting Cutler. They are balanced running and throwing the ball and are a sleeper to go deep into the playoffs. The wrong team is favored here. Take Chicago.

Chiefs -4.5 over Giants
I think Tom Coughlin has lost control of this football team. This offensive line was good last year and now all of a sudden stinks? To make matters worse they will be without two starters on the line today so will have to do some shuffling. Eli Manning is a nervous wreck back in the pocket and who can blame him. This running game stinks. On defense they will be without Webster in the secondary and still are breaking in three new starters this year at linebacker. Arrowhead is one of the toughest stadiums to play in. It just did not feel that way because Kansas City stunk. That is not the case anymore with a host of pro bowlers on this defense and a very good quarterback in Alex Smith. This team can run the ball and now are a threat in the air. Andy Reid owns the Giants and I just think the wheels have come off for this football team. It’s time to start rebuilding for the future. Take the Chiefs.

Cowboys -2 over Chargers
Both teams are without a key wide receiver, but the key to this game is the lack of offensive line for the Chargers. I have never seen a team with so many starters out in one game and guys just coming back from concussions. Not one guy on this line is healthy. I am serious, not one. You can’t win at this level if you can’t protect the quarterback. People look at the skilled players, but the game is won and lost in the trenches. Dallas has a great running game and should take advantage of a young San Diego Defensive Line. Obviously anything can happen in a football game, but people who put money on the Chargers just are not educated sports gamblers. Offensive Line situations come along like this once every few years. This information obviously goes unlooked by the average gamblers who only care that Miles Austin won’t be in the lineup and the Chargers are at home. There is so much more to handicapping games then a player or two. Take Dallas.

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Mike Antonetti

nfl teams that won at home last week as favorites of more than 18 are 0-9 ats and lost 4/8 straight up on the road. my play: houston texas +3


road favorites on normal rest, after winning as road dogs are 1-29 ats in weeks 4 or later if they scored 28- in that win and if they have 1-7 more wins than opponent. play: jacksonville +9.5

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Jackpot Sports

Atlanta -2
Houston +1
Detroit -2.5 buy 1/2

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Aaron's Analysis 9/29

ny jets

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Baseball Crusher
Milwaukee Brewers -109 over NY Mets
(System Record: 84-7, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 84-93-2

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Football Crusher
Chicago Bears +3 over Detroit Lions
(System Record: 22-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 22-10