9-29-13

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Sports unlimited
10* houston

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Millionaires club
large
philadelphia

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Sam G sports


cincy
ravens

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Sports Unlimited

10 Houston
5 Detroit

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Jeff White

Under 41 Bucs/Cards

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VENO
20 pitt
15 dallas
others
Cleveland over
dallas over
Washington
atlanta

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Executive 400: Tennessee

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Northcoast

Sunday Night Marquee

Under Patriots

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POWER PLAY WINS

Power Play Of The Day

Denver Broncos -11

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skybluepicks

eagles +11
sd +2

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Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM (16-6 since NFL 2011)
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 8:40 ET.


The Falcons are coming off a 13-3 season in which they were the NFC’s No. 1 seed, finally getting that first playoff win (under head coach Mike Smith and QB Matt Ryan), and then falling just short of a Super Bowl appearance by losing 28-24 at home to the 49ers in the NFC championship game. The Falcons drew a tough season-opener in 2013, traveling to New Orleans (a team which has dominated them in recent years), which was playing its first game (and 1st home game) under Sean Payton (suspended all of 2012 over “Bounty-Gate). All in all, the Falcons acquitted themselves very well, losing 23-17 and had a real shot to win at the end.


The Falcons returned home for Week 2 and beat the Rams 31-24, a final which is a little misleading, as the Falcons led 24-3 at the half and were up 31-17 until the Rams scored with just over two minutes to go. Atlanta had more than a few injury issues coming last week’s game at Miami, most notably missing RB Steven Jackson, who injured his thigh during last Sunday's 31-24 win over St Louis. "He will not play this week. I know that," coach Mike Smith said before the game. "It is short term. When I say short term, I don't know if it's two weeks or three weeks."


Jackson will again miss this week plus Atlanta also lost FB Bradie Ewing (shoulder) and DE Kroy Biermann (Achilles) for the season. LB Sean Weatherspoon (foot) is out for a minimum of eight weeks. Starting LT Sam Baker (knee, foot) missed the Miami game and is questionable vs New England. Better news is that CBs Samuel and McClain are both probable. Atlanta was far from 100% vs Miami but was in control most of the game, losing 27-23, very late. Here’s what head coach Mike Smith said about the game. “We were 0 for 3 (defensively) in the red zone. We were only 2 for 5 in (offensive) red-zone efficiency so you can just do the math."


The Patriots know a little something about I dealing with injuries as well but unlike the 1-2 Falcons, the Pats have managed to open 3-0. There was speculation that TE Rob Gronkowski and WR Danny Amendola would play this week, but as of Saturday night, that doesn’t look likely. A season after averaging a league-high 34.8 PPG, the Pats are one of 11 NFL teams averaging under 20 points at 19.7 per. The other 10 have a combined record of 7-23, while the Pats are 3-0 (2-1 Jets are the only other team in the group with a winning record).


That’s a tribute to Belichick and Brady but can New England keep it up? Brady’s completed just 57.5% of his passes so far, after never being below 60% in his previous 11 full seasons. He’s averaging a modest 232.7 YPG thru the air, after averaging 289.6 YPG, the last five seasons. His QB rating is 79.4, after NEVER being below 85.0 and seven times topping 92.0, including three season of 105.0-plus. You get the picture. Then there is the RG situation. Vereen had 101 yards in Week 1 but got hurt and was expected to miss six-to-eight weeks. Ridley, who had 1,2623 yards last year (4.4 YPC / 12 TDs), has just 121 after three games, averaging 3.4 YPC.


The New England defense can brag that it is one of 10 teams to hold their first three opponents under 1,000 yards and have allowed an average of 188.3 yards in the air. New England is second in the AFC in takeaways and the team's 11.3 PPG allowed is tied for second-best with Kansas City, behind only Seattle's 9.0. However, that Pats “D” is stepping way up the QB list this week vs Matt Ryan, after facing E.J. Manuel, Geno Smith and the self-destructive Josh Freeman in succession.


Matt Ryan's 56 wins are the most by a quarterback in his first five seasons in NFL history, as he opened the 2013 season with a 56-22 (.718) career record, the second-best winning percentage to Tom Brady (no other QB on the list is above .700). Head coach Mike Smith arrived in 2008 (along with Ryan) and just like Flacco and Harbaugh in Baltimore, this coach and QB combo has been eminently successful. Smith has led the Falcons to a 56-24 record the last five years, including 33-7 at home. Ryan has started all but two of those games and the Falcons lost both of them (each in Atlanta).


Atlanta won its first home game in Week 2 of the 2013 season, making Ryan 34-5 SU at home as a starter. This is a BIG one and one wonders how the Pats can keep winning? Maybe they will, but NOT here!

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Veritas Sports Investments
NFL
San Diego+1
Atlanta-2.5

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Selection's for tonight's NE/ATL game:

Game 223-224: New England at Atlanta (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.093; Atlanta 140.950
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-2); Under

NFL
Long Sheet
NEW ENGLAND (3 - 0) at ATLANTA (1 - 2) - 9/29/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-45 ATS (+28.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 99-70 ATS (+22.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 77-54 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

Trend Report
8:30 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. ATLANTA
New England is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Atlanta's last 9 games at home

Jimmy Boyd
3*(NFL) New England Patriots +2

Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5
Atl -2 - Wiseguys agree

Sweetjones55
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 (x1)

Steve Fezzik
Atlanta Falcons

Todays Best Bets
5* - [224] Atlanta Falcons -1 -120 vs New England Patriots

Jackpot Sports - Falcons

Ron Goodman
-Falcons -2.5

Essential betting tidbits for Week 4 of the NFL
- The Atlanta Falcons host the New England Patriots at the Georgia Dome in the Sunday nighter. The Falcons are 1-point home faves but are 0-3 ATS in their last three versus the Pats - two of which were in Georgia.
- Keep an eye on the status of Pats TE Rob Gronkowski. Gronk is listed as questionable, but the Boston Herald believes he is healthy enough to play.

Cappers Access
Falcons -2.5

Teddy Covers
10* New England +1.5

Pointspreadpros
TOP Play ATLANTA -2

INTPICKS
2 Stars Atlanta -1.5

Diamond Dog Sports
Under Falcons

Hank Goldberg
atl 27 ne 20

Kenny Nguyen
(1-50)20 unit Atlanta -1

Totals 4 You NFL Selections for Late Sunday, September 29th
September's NFL Primetime Super Total of the Month!!!!!
New England/Atlanta under 49 1/2

Sportswagers NFL
ATLANTA -2½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

Gold Medal Club
#224 Atlanta -2.5

Wolkosky Milan
20* NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +3

Ben lee likes for $50
"Mr Chalk"
(1) * Falcons -2/Patriots (Best Bet)

James Jones
3 Units: Atlanta Falcons -2 8:30 PM EST

cappersports
Atlanta

Brandon Lang
100 dime atlanta

TMC Sports Advisors
Atlanta -3

Warren Sharp
224 ATLANTA FALCONS under 49.5

Hondo
Atlanta

9xSports
atlanta falcons-2.5

Kelso
50 Atlanta

ASA
4* Atlanta

This Week's NFL BEST BETS
STATFOX SCOTT
PLAY ON: Atlanta -2.0

Philly Godfather
Falcons

Goodfella
2 Atlanta

Seabass
100 Atlanta

craig davis
40 dime falcons

Sports Boss
4* Falcons

Ben Burns
10* SNF Main Event
Atlanta -2.5 -113

ATS Lock Club
6* Pats

VENO
atlanta

Northcoast
Sunday Night Marquee
Under Patriots

Prediction Machine:
New England
NE/ATL Over

Larry Ness' 10* PERFECT STORM
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons

Veritas Sports Investments
Atlanta-2.5

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Sports Handicapper King

SEPTEMBER Wins Loses (units)
PAYED Plays 21 23 -44.3
FREELOADER 10 8 2.3

Atlanta -2.5

Freeloader: Detroit -2.5

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Sunday Night Football betting: Patriots at Falcons

New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 48.5)

The New England Patriots were able to take advantage of some weak competition to begin the season and finally appeared to get something out of their young receiving corps last week. The Patriots and those receivers will take a big step up in competition when they visit the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. The Falcons are coming off a last-minute road loss to another AFC East team and are trying to even their record.

Atlanta won its first eight games en route to a 13-3 regular season in 2012 but is off to a slower start offensively this season. New England can relate to the offensive slowdown, though its issues are based more on roster turnover and injuries. The Patriots are hopeful that some of those injury concerns can be relieved this week with the impending returns of wide receiver Danny Amendola and tight end Rob Gronkowski.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: This game opened as a pick and is currently Falcons -2.5. The total opened at 49 and is currently 48.5.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (3-0): Amendola (groin) and Gronkowski (forearm/back) have both been limited participants in practice this week and are listed as questionable for Sunday. Quarterback Tom Brady made good use of Amendola in the season opener but is making do with rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins over the last two weeks, and the two finally stepped up in a 23-3 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 3. The offensive slowdown is putting more pressure on the defense, which is allowing an average of 11.3 points and is doing particularly well against the pass thanks to corners Aqib Talib and Alfonzo Dennard.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-2): Quarterback Matt Ryan is dealing with his own banged-up receiving corps, though Julio Jones (knee) and Roddy White (high ankle sprain) have yet to miss a game. Atlanta is opening up a three-game homestand with the Patriots after suffering each of its losses on the road, including last week’s 27-23 setback at Miami in which Ryan and the offense stalled inside the Dolphins’ red zone twice in the fourth quarter. The Falcons are allowing 296 yards passing defensively but are getting strong production from end Osi Umenyiora, who was part of a unit with the New York Giants that gave Brady and the Patriots plenty of trouble in two Super Bowls.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 6-0 ATS in their last six games in Week 4.
* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Falcons last five games overall.
* Over is 18-8 in Patriots last 26 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady is second in NFL history with a passing TD in 51 straight games (Drew Brees, 54).

2. Atlanta RB Stephen Jackson (hamstring) is expected to miss the game.

3. New England starting RT Sebastian Vollmer (sprained foot) sat out practice on Wednesday and Thursday, leaving him doubtful for Sunday.