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NFL Week 4 opening line report: Books coming off winning Sunday
Sportsbooks in Las Vegas are celebrating a huge windfall from Week 3 of the NFL season, with numerous upsets coming up big for books.
While favorites finished the day 9-4-1 ATS – usually a recipe for disaster for sportsbooks – the chalk that did lose was tied into plenty of parlays and teasers, wiping out many muti-wager ticket holders. Losses from the San Francisco 49ers, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers and New York Giants were more than enough.
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-6, 47)
The Dolphins would likely be as high as 9-point underdogs heading to New Orleans any other season. But, this year, the Fins are one of the few 3-0 squads and are commanding the respect of oddsmakers in Week 4.
“Miami has some good weapons and is going to keep this competitive,” says Korner. “I can’t tell you where this line will go. The six looks like a solid line. Miami is going to make this game interesting." -
Today's NFL Picks
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (9/25) Game 225-226: Miami at New Orleans (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; New Orleans 141.914
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-6 1/2); UnderComment
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NFL
Week 4
Dolphins (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)—When Brees left San Diego as free agent/after his shoulder surgery, Miami chose Culpepper over him, which turned out better for Brees than Miami. Deserves mention that Saints beat Miami 46-34 in ’09, teams’ only meeting since Brees signed with NO. Unbeaten Dolphins are moving chains, converting 21-52 (40.4%) on third down and have only two penalties in last two games- they’re 28-12-2 as a non-divisional road underdog, achieved under five different coaches. Fish are 21-11-1 as road underdogs, 6-3 vs NFC opponents, 4-4 as a road dog under Philbin. Saints scored four TDs on 10 drives last week, after scoring total of three on 22 drives in first two games; Payton covered his last ten games as a home favorite (Saints were 3-3 as HF without him LY). Ryan’s defense held last two opponents to 273/247 yards, after Falcons gained 367 in opener. Unusual that first three Saint games this year all stayed under the total.Comment
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The Winners Circle
Monday Football Play
10* Play New Orleans -6 over Miami (TOP NFL PLAY) 8:30 PM EST
New Orleans has covered the spread in 19 of the last 25 games vs. AFC East Division Opponents and they have also covered the spread in 19 of the last 28 games when playing as a favorite. New Orleans has covered the spread in 15 of the last 19 home games and they are only allowing an average of 12 points a game on defense this season.Comment
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Jimmy Boyd
3* (NFL) Miami Dolphins +7Comment
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R.A.W. FOOTBALL
2* = New OrleansComment
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jack jones
20* no -6.5Comment
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The Gold Sheet
KEY RELEASES
NEW ORLEANS by 17 over MiamiComment
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NorthCoast
3 N.O. SaintsComment
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NFLBettingPicks
Kevin
2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ New Orleans Saints - SAINTS -6 (-105)
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 1.90 units)Comment
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From Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5
Saints -6.5 - Wiseguys agreeComment
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Monday Night Football betting: Dolphins at Saints
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints (-7, 48.5)
Ryan Tannehill of the Miami Dolphins is used to flying under the radar as part of the much-ballyhooed NFL quarterback class of 2012. That will certainly be the case for the second-year signal caller on Monday night when he brings his unbeaten team into New Orleans for a prime-time showdown with Drew Brees and the undefeated Saints. Miami is seeking its first 4-0 start since 1995 and will try to knock off an NFC South power for the second straight week.
The return of head coach Sean Payton from a one-year suspension due to the Bountygate scandal has the Saints back on track after an 0-4 start torpedoed their 2012 season. Brees has surpassed 300 yards in each of the first three games, but the biggest change for New Orleans has come on the other side of the ball. The Saints allowed an NFL-worst 440.1 yards per game and ranked 31st in points allowed (28.4) last season, but they are yielding only 12.7 points so far.
TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: The Saints opened -5.5 and have moved to -7. The total opened at 47 and is now 48.5
WEATHER: N/A
ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-0): Miami opened some eyes by winning at Indianapolis in Week 2 and made a loud statement last week by erasing a 10-point second-half deficit to knock off Atlanta, which is expected to battle the Saints for the NFC South title. Tannehill threw the winning TD with 38 seconds left and is completing 66.4 percent of his passes despite getting sacked a league-high 14 times. The Dolphins are still searching for consistency from high-priced free-agent wideout Mike Wallace and running back Lamar Miller, but the defense ranks eighth in the league with an average of 17.7 points allowed.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-0): Brees has thrown for more than 1,000 yards and had three touchdown passes in last week's 31-7 rout of Arizona, but he has also been picked off four times. Part of that is due to a punchless running game that is producing only 85.7 yards, but tight end Jimmy Graham has four TD catches and is coming off back-to-back monster games after battling an ankle injury through much of last season. The Saints' best move of the offseason was bringing in defensive coordinator Rob Ryan, who implemented a 3-4 scheme that has New Orleans yielding 295.7 yard per game - fourth in the league.
TRENDS:
* Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday games.
* Under is 17-4 in Dolphins last 21 games on fieldturf.
* Over is 7-3 in Saints last 10 Monday games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Brees has won eight straight Monday Night Football games, throwing for 24 TDs against five interceptions.
2. Miami is expected to be without DE Cameron Wake (knee), who had 15 sacks last season but was injured in last week's game.
3. Saints WR Marques Colston has nine TD receptions in his last eight home games.Comment
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College football odds: Week 6 opening line report
In one of the most entertaining games of the season thus far, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the LSU Tigers 44-41 in a matchup of two SEC heavyweights.
The Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) have beaten some big names to start the season with their only blemish coming courtesy of the Clemson Tigers in the opening game of the campaign.
Coming off that massive win against LSU, the Bulldogs now must travel to Tennessee to face the Volunteers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).
Georgia has won straight up in three consecutive meetings with the Volunteers and both won and covered as 2.5-point faves in Knoxville back in 2011; the last meeting at Tennessee.
Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Bulldogs -14 after he and his team were all between 13 and 17.
"Offshores have lower and we could've gone that way with Georgia RB (Todd) Gurly questionable but with him in the lineup, I like where we're at."
Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-17)
The Maryland Terrapins (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) have satisfied faithful backers so far during an unblemished start to the season. Maryland is one of four programs in the country that is 4-0 ATS and one of just eight squads without an ATS loss. But Korner feels they'll have their hands full with quarterback Jameis Winston and the Seminoles (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).
"The range went from -14 to -21 and we decided in the middle with FSU -17," Korner told Covers. "Maryland has shown well of late and are competitive here. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop a little. But FSU's overall team strength in so many areas will show through here."
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4)
Played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas
The Irish (3-2, 0-4-1) are coming off a poor performance at home against the Oklahoma Sooners which saw them on the wrong end of a 35-21 scoreline. The Irish have been fairly abysmal both on the field and against the spread. They are one of just eight teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.
"This is in a neutral field and to tell you the truth, we don't like Notre Dame at all," said Korner. "We sent out ASU -4 but a gun to our heads we could easily go higher. Notre Dame can't stop anyone and they're facing a quality team here."
Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+6)
The Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a massive 31-24 win against Wisconsin to get their Big 10 season off to a great start. It won't get easier for them as they (along with College Gameday) go to Evanston, Illinois to face the Northwestern Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS), who are off to a great start themselves.
"We were all around the -6 number. There wasn't much to discuss here. Big Ten clash with two good teams. I don't see this number running in either direction by kick-off."Comment
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Premier League betting: Everton v Newcastle
This week's fixtures in the Barclays Premier League conclude with Newcastle United traveling to face Everton. If the Toffees can snatch the three home points, it would put the club in sole possession of fourth place in the table.
Everton v Newcastle (-150, +280, +500)
Why bet Everton: If you were asked "who is the only club in the league to not lose a game yet this season", you probably wouldn't guess the Toffees. Yet here we are. Roberto Martinez has made a pretty nice transition to the blue half of Liverpool with two wins, three draws and zero losses. The club is progressively getting stronger as they opened the campaign with three draws and have posted back-to-back wins at home to Chelsea and away to West Ham.
Key players out/doubtful: N/A
Why bet Newcastle: The Magpies are one of the more inconsistent sides in the league, but when they are on, they can play. When they are off, however, it can be atrocious. The club had a nice spell with a draw against West Ham and victories over Fulham and Aston Villa, before losing to a spirited Hull side one week ago. The matchuup between Newcastle winger Hatem Ben Arfa and Everton defender Leighton Baines should be a great one.
Key players out/doubtful: Ryan Taylor, Steven Taylor
2012-13 fixture result: Everton 2, Newcastle 2
Key betting note: Everton has won seven of their previous eight home games in the league.Comment
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