10-1-13

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DCI Pro Hockey
The Daniel Curry Index

10/01/13 Scores/Predictions

Toronto 2.79 at MONTRÉAL 3.35, 7:00 pm ET
Washington 1.94 at CHICAGO 3.19, 8:00 pm ET
Winnipeg 2.83 at EDMONTON 3.05, 10:00 pm ET

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1105-831 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner TUES Under 5 1/2 Wash/Chi NHL

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Tuesday

Jets/Oilers under 5.5

Washington – Chicago under 5.5

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Baseball Crusher
Pittsburgh Pirates -132 over Cincinnati Reds
(System Record: 84-7, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 84-94-2

Hockey Crusher
Chicago Blackhawks -165 over Washington Capitals
(System Record: 0-0)
Overall Record: 0-0

Soccer Crusher
All Boys + Arsenal de Sarandi UNDER 2
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 464-15, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 464-397-62

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Rangers on Monday and likes the Pirates on Tuesday.

The deficit is 1509 sirignanos.

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Jimmy Boyd

3* (MLB) Cincinnati Reds ML +115

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Paul Leiner

50* Over 6.5 - Reds/Pirates

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DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS - MLB Playoffs - Tuesday, October 1st

6-UNIT "X-TRA STRONG"-
PIRATES (-126) over reds (5pm)
*Liriano & Cueto Listed Pitchers

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Playersbet

Triple Dime: Pirates ML

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (CINCINNATI) good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game on the season, after scoring 3 runs or less 5 straight games
46-30 since 1997. ( 60.5% 29.4 units )
3-4 this year. ( 42.9% 0.0 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB CINCINNATI at PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 41-27 (+18.8 Units) against the money line after 2 or more consecutive road games this season.
The average score was: PITTSBURGH (4.5) , OPPONENT (3.9)

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Pirates host Reds in NL Wild Card on Tuesday
by Marcus Keirns

National League Wild Card Game
First pitch: Tuesday, 8:05 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -130, Cincinnati +120, Total: 6.5

Division rivals meet for one final time this season as the Pirates host the Reds in the one-game NL Wild Card showdown on Tuesday night.

Johnny Cueto, (5-2, 2.82 ERA, 1.06 WHIP) will look to send the Cincinnati to the NLDS as he matches up against Pittsburgh lefty Francisco Liriano (16-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP) to earn the right to advance to the next round. These two teams have seen each other 19 times this year, with the Pirates winning 11 of those games. Pittsburgh just finished off a three-game sweep of the Reds in Cincinnati, which is the reason this game is at PNC Park in Pittsburgh. The Pirates have been outstanding at home this season, going 50-31 (.617, 8th in majors). That is a big advantage going up against a Cincinnati team that is just 41-40 on the road. Pittsburgh has been on fire as of late, winning five of its past six games with 12 home runs, including eight in the past two games (six on Saturday). OF Marlon Byrd has been on fire, going 8-for-13 with a homer, five runs and four RBI over his past four games. In crucial matchups like this, the stars need to take their game to the next level. In last year's postseason, a five-game series loss to the Giants, Reds 1B Joey Votto went 7-for-18 (.389) with four walks and three runs. He led the majors by a wide margin with 135 walks (23 more than any other player) during the 2013 campaign, and his ability to work a pitcher and get on base (.435 OBP, 2nd in majors) could play a pivotal role in a one-game playoff.

Francisco Liriano enjoyed a terrific year for the Pirates, setting a career high with 16 victories and leading his team to a 17-9 mark (.654) in his 17 starts. He has been outstanding at PNC Park as well, going 8-1 (team 9-2) with a 1.47 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. He showed that he can be a true ace with 163 K's in 161 innings overall, while allowing just nine homers all season. His 163 strikeouts rank 21st in the majors, as he had eight games where he struck out at least eight batters. However, the southpaw has had problems with the Reds this season, going 0-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over four starts. But in his last matchup against Cincinnati on Sept. 20, he lasted eight innings, giving up only two runs in an eventual 6-5 loss in extra innings. In his other start against them at home on June 1, Liriano allowed just one run in six innings while fanning 11. In his career, the lefty has been able to dominate the Reds top hitters, including OF Jay Bruce (0-for-11, 6 K's), 1B Joey Votto (2-for-10, 2 K's), 2B Brandon Phillips (3-for-11, 3 K's) and OF Shin-Soo Choo (.194 BA, 10 K's in 31 AB). 3B Todd Frazier has had some success though, going 3-for-9 with two home runs off him. In a one-game playoff situation, pitchers are on a much shorter leash than they are in the regular season. If Liriano is able to just go out and pitch well enough to give the ball to the bullpen with the lead, then Pittsburgh will be in terrific shape. The Pirates bullpen ended the seasons with a 2.89 ERA, ranking 3rd in the majors. Jason Grilli has been one of the keys in the bullpen, as the 36-year-old finished the regular season with a 2.70 ERA and 33 saves in 35 chances.

Cueto has missed extended time this season due to a strained lat muscle. He has made two starts since returning from the DL, throwing 12 innings while giving up only one earned run with 10 K's. For the season, his team is just 6-5 in his 11 starts, including 3-3 on the road where the right-hander carries a subpar 3.90 ERA. However, Cueto dominated in two starts this season against the Pirates, posting a 1-0 record with a 0.73 ERA and 0.41 WHIP in 12.1 innings where he allowed only one run on three hits (.079 BA) with nine strikeouts. When Cueto is pitching at his best, he can be dominating with his fastball. He has seen the Pirates batters many times throughout his career, with mixed results. OF Andrew McCutchen, who dominates many pitchers across baseball, is only 9-for-39 (.231) against Cueto in his career, striking out six times. He does have three home runs and two doubles in his nine hits in the matchup though. OF Marlon Byrd has had his way with Cueto, going 7-for-12 (.583) with a homer and 3 RBI. Cueto has shown the ability to strike out the Pirates hitters, as he has fanned OF Garrett Jones 11 times in 39 at-bats. Like Pittsburgh, the Reds have been very solid in the bullpen, posting a 3.29 ERA (7th in majors). Closer Aroldis Chapman, like Grilli, is nearly unbeatable if he has the lead going into the final inning, saving 38 of 43 chances (88%). Both of these teams understand the importance of this game, and if either starter struggles early, both bullpens could be called upon early in this game.

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NHL Atlantic Division Preview Will Red Wings run the show?
by Sean Murphy

The Detroit Red Wings are the new kid on the block in the Eastern Conference. Division re-alignment has created a number of intriguing storylines and the ultra-crowded Atlantic Division could provide the most compelling one of all.

Here's a look at all eight teams and how you should approach them entering the new season.

Detroit Red Wings (2012: 24-16-8)

Odds to win division: 3-1
Season point total: 99.5

Why to bet the Red Wings: After coming just one win short of reaching the Western Conference final, the Red Wings have re-tooled their roster in an effort to take the next step. The additions of Daniel Alfredsson and Stephen Weiss will boost an offense that sagged to under 2.6 goals per game. The defense remains intact while all-world goaltender Jimmy Howard is locked up with a long-term extension.

Why not to bet the Red Wings: Expectations are going to be sky-high in the Motor City following a strong playoff showing. Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg remain the cornerstones of the offense, but they’re not getting any younger. Moving to the East could also result in some growing pains.

Season point total pick: Under 99.5 points

Boston Bruins (2012: 28-14-6)

Odds to win division: 7-4
Season point total: 105.5

Why to bet the Bruins: The Bruins always seem to be in the conversation when it comes to Stanley Cup contenders. Despite enduring a roller-coaster ride of a season, Boston still reached the Cup final. Adding Jarome Iginla and Loui Eriksson should help with leadership after letting Nathan Horton walk away and dealing Tyler Seguin.

Why not to bet the Bruins: There will be plenty of young players taking on much larger roles, particularly on the blueline. Guys like Torey Krug, Matt Bartkowski, and Dougie Hamilton all got their feet wet thanks to an injury-riddled playoff run. But how will they handle the 82-game grind? No fewer than five rookies or second-year players could fill out the forward depth chart.

Season point total pick: Under 105.5

Florida Panthers (2012: 15-27-6)

Odds to win division: 60-1
Season point total: 69.5

Why to bet the Panthers: A top line featuring Jonathan Huberdeau and second-overall draft pick Aleksander Barkov could make a splash. The Panthers have stock-piled a number of top prospects over the years and in 2013-14, that group will be given its opportunity to shine. Veteran Sean Bergenheim returns after missing all of last season due to injury while Scott Gomez should provide some much-needed veteran leadership.

Why not to bet the Panthers: This is still very much a work-in-progress. While the Panthers are just two years removed from winning the Southeast Division and coming within a goal of reaching the second round, this is a different team. Question marks remain in goal, with Jacob Markstrom having yet to pan out and invite Tim Thomas really little more than a headline-grabber.

Season point total pick: Over 69.5

Buffalo Sabres (2012: 21-21-6)

Odds to win division: 50-1
Season point total: 76.5

Why to bet the Sabres: It’s now or never for the Sabres, who are staring down the barrel at a massive rebuild if they’re unable to contend this season. Thomas Vanek and Ryan Miller remain on board for at least one more year, and certainly have the motivation to carry this team. In a crowded Atlantic Division, we could see value with the Sabres as a forgotten team.

Why not to bet the Sabres: Outside of Vanek, Miller and recently re-signed forward Cody Hodgson, there’s not a lot to get excited about in Buffalo. The Sabres didn’t make any sort of splash in the free-agent market, acquiring only two notable players in Jamie McBain and Henrik Tallinder. A difficult schedule could doom the Sabres if they’re unable to get off to a quick start.

Season point total pick: Under 76.5

Toronto Maple Leafs (2012: 26-17-5)

Odds to win division: 9-2
Season point total: 95.5

Why to bet the Leafs: Toronto believes it has solved its goaltending woes by acquiring Jonathan Bernier.The additions of Dave Bolland and David Clarkson up front could turn out to be a major coup. This is a team that grew up an awful lot during seven-game series against the Bruins and should continue to progress under the guidance of head coach Randy Carlyle.

Why not to bet the Leafs: The jury is still out on the Leafs defense and while Bernier has plenty of upside between the pipes, it’s difficult to predict how he’ll handle being a starter in the pressure cooker that is Toronto. There’s a chance the Leafs could be a little overvalued following their surprisingly strong showing in what many will call a fluky lockout-shortened season.

Season point total pick: Under 95.5

Tampa Bay Lightning (2012: 18-26-4)

Odds to win division: 15-1
Season point total: 83.5

Why to bet the Lightning: After back-to-back miserable seasons there’s nowhere to go but up for the Lightning. The departure of Vincent Lecavalier marks the end of an era and that’s not a bad thing. With their goaltending situation figured out following the acquisition of Ben Bishop late last season and the duo of Steven Stamkos and Martin St. Louis primed for another big year, the potential is there for a bounce-back performance.

Why not to bet the Lightning: Bishop was good, but certainly not great after joining the Lightning, posting a 2.99 GAA and a .917 save percentage. Once you get past the Lightning’s top defensive pairing, there isn’t a lot of depth and that could leave Bishop on an island.

Season point total pick: Over 83.5

Ottawa Senators (2012: 25-17-6)

Odds to win division: 9-2
Season point total: 95.5

Why to bet the Senators: After losing Alfredsson to free agency, the Senators believe a roster shakeup was needed. The infusion of new faces should serve them well. Bobby Ryan has the potential to make an immediate impact and evolve into the face of the franchise. Joe Corvo is back on the blueline after helping them reach the Cup final in 2007 and represents and upgrade over the incumbent Sergei Gonchar.

Why not to bet the Senators: Who will fill the leadership void now that Alfie has jumped ship to Detroit? There’s plenty of young talent on board, but that comes at the expense of proven veterans. After pouring everything they had into the lockout-shortened campaign, it remains to be seen whether the Sens have enough left in the tank to contend again.

Season point total pick: Under 95.5

Montreal Canadiens (2012: 29-14-5)

Odds to win division: 9-2
Season point total: 94.5

Why to bet the Canadiens: A sense of pride and responsibility was seemingly restored in Montreal, even if things ended on a sour note with an early playoff exit. The Habs didn’t lose much in the offseason and gained a veteran leader in Danny Briere, not to mention some much-needed toughness in the form of George Parros and Doug Murray. Having P.K. Subban from Day 1 should help their cause in the wake of last year’s holdout.

Why not to bet the Canadiens: Briere was a nice addition, but there’s no question he’s on the downside of his career in terms of offensive production. It’s going to take a true team effort to produce more than two goals per game. As good as Carey Price is, he can’t be asked to shoulder the entire load, as we saw a couple of years ago.

Season point total pick: Over 94.5

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NHL Metropolitan Division Preview Pens, Rangers best of the bunch
by Sean Murphy

The Metropolitan Division has the potential to be the most top-heavy in the league this year, provided the Penguins and Rangers live up to expectations.

The Blue Jackets move to the Eastern Conference, rounding out the eight-team division. Here’s a quick look at each.

New York Islanders (2012: 24-17-7)

Odds to win division: 12-1
Season point total: 91.5

Why to bet the Islanders: The Isles made major strides last season, culminating with a near-upset of the Penguins in the opening round of the playoffs. John Tavares is coming into his own as the leader of this team both on and off the ice.

Why not to bet the Islanders: Losing power play specialist and blue line anchor Mark Streit hurts the Isles on the back-end. Goaltending remains a weak spot, with an aging Evgeni Nabokov once again being called on to shoulder the load.

Season point total pick: Over 91.5 points

Carolina Hurricanes (2012: 19-25-4)

Odds to win division: 25-1
Season point total: 79.5

Why to bet the Hurricanes: The Canes won’t be burdened with the same high expectations they dealt with leading into last season. They’ll also have a healthy Cam Ward back between the pipes. This should be the breakout year for the reunited Staal brothers in Carolina.

Why not to bet the Hurricanes: There’s not a lot of scoring depth, nor are there many ‘sure things’ on the blue line. Carolina is going to need a total team effort to keep pace with the big boys in the division, and that might be asking a little too much.

Season point total pick: Over 79.5

New York Rangers (2012: 26-18-4)

Odds to win division: 5-2
Season point total: 103.5

Why to bet the Rangers: The Broadway Blueshirts didn’t make the same splash in the free agent market we’ve become accustomed to seeing, and that might not be a bad thing. The pieces are in place for the Rangers to take a run at the Cup, especially with a healthy Marc Staal returning to anchor the defense.

Why not to bet the Rangers: These are still the under-achieving Rangers. Will they be able to keep their star players healthy? Is Henrik Lundqvist still one of the world’s best goaltenders? And then there’s the pressure. How will the Rangers handle it this year?

Season point total pick: Under 103.5

New Jersey Devils (2012: 19-19-10)

Odds to win division: 20-1
Season point total: 81.5

Why to bet the Devils: There’s nowhere to go but up for the Devils following a disastrous 2012 campaign. Martin Brodeur is back for one more year, and New Jersey went out and got a nice insurance policy in the form of Cory Schneider.

Why not to bet the Devils: They’re going to be relying on two aging stars, Jaromir Jagr and Patrik Elias to provide scoring pop on the top line. Beyond newly-signed center Adam Henrique, there’s not a lot of young talent on the roster to get excited about.

Season point total pick: Under 81.5

Columbus Blue Jackets (2012: 24-17-7)

Odds to win division: 12-1
Season point total: 88.5

Why to bet the Blue Jackets: After a major turnaround last season, the Blue Jackets have plenty of momentum on their side entering the 2013-14 campaign. Nathan Horton joins an already impressive cast up front. Marian Gaborik should perform well in a contract year.

Why not to bet the Blue Jackets: Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky will be hard pressed to match the numbers he posted last season. Horton will be called upon to lead the offense after being more of a role player in Boston. How will the Jackets deal with sudden high expectations?

Season point total pick: Under 88.5

Washington Capitals (2012: 27-18-3)

Odds to win division: 12-1
Season point total: 91.5

Why to bet the Capitals: First-year head coach Adam Oates did a nice job of bringing together this team last season and with the core remaining intact, there’s reason to believe the Caps can take another step forward in 2013-14. Ovi finally looked like Ovi again and he’s poised to lead the team on another run at the East.

Why not to bet the Capitals: There were significant offseason losses, with Mike Ribeiro, Matt Hendricks and Jeff Schultz jumping ship, among others. The addition of Mikhail Grabovski certainly won’t instill much confidence in Caps fans.

Season point total pick: Over 91.5

Pittsburgh Penguins (2012: 36-12-0)

Odds to win division: 5-7
Season point total: 110.5

Why to bet the Penguins: Sidney Crosby is back at full strength after missing a quarter of last season due to a broken jaw. The first two lines are still absolutely loaded with talent. The Pens finally rid themselves of a big distraction in the form of Matt Cooke.

Why not to bet the Penguins: There are question marks between the pipes, with Tomas Vokoun already injured and Marc-Andre Fleury not exactly a pillar of confidence. Who will step up to provide third-line scoring and take some of the pressure off of Crosby and Evgeni Malkin?

Season point total pick: Under 110.5

Philadelphia Flyers (2012: 23-22-3)

Odds to win division: 12-1
Season point total: 93.5

Why to bet the Flyers: It’s hard not to like the offseason moves the Flyers made, bringing in some veteran talent in the form of Vincent Lecavalier and Mark Streit. The addition of Ray Emery should help shore things up in goal as well.

Why not to bet the Flyers: Can Emery stay healthy, and if not, is Yann Danis a legitimate starting goaltender in this league? There is also concern that the Flyers defense will be unable to handle strong offensive teams like the Penguins and Rangers with a number of offensive-minded blue-liners.

Season point total pick: Under 93.5

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NHL Central Division Preview Hawks poised for another run
by Sean Murphy

The Central Division has the potential to be one of the most top-heavy in the league with the Blackhawks and Blues leading the way.

That is unless teams like the Wild, Jets and Avalanche are able to make some headway.

Here’s a look at how all seven teams shape up entering the 2013-14 season.

Nashville Predators (2012: 16-23-9)

Odds to win division: 25-1

Season point total: 82.5

Why to bet the Predators: The Preds are hoping that Seth Jones can make an immediate impact on the blue line, adding to an already solid group that is headed by veteran Shea Weber. If there’s one thing we know about the Preds, it’s that they’re well-coached and get a lot out of a little in terms of talent.

Why not to bet the Predators: There are no bonafide goal scorers up front, with the likes of Mike Fisher and Viktor Stalberg counted on to lead the charge. Goaltender Pekka Rinne has been asked to shoulder too much of the load in recent years and that won’t change this season.

Season point total pick: Over 82.5

Minnesota Wild (2012: 26-19-3)

Odds to win division: 13-2

Season point total: 96.5

Why to bet the Wild: This is the year the Wild are expected to take a big leap forward with the duo of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter now fully acclimated with the team. Fans in Minnesota are among the best in the league, not to mention starved for a winner and expectations are high for good reason.

Why not to bet the Wild: The Wild have had a tough time stepping up in class, as we saw in the opening round of last year’s playoffs against Chicago. Until proven otherwise, that’s still the knock on this team. Losing guys like Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Devin Setoguchi could leave an offensive void.

Season point total pick: Over 96.5

Colorado Avalanche (2012: 16-25-7)

Odds to win division: 25-1

Season point total: 81.5

Why to bet the Avalanche: An infusion of young talent, not to mention an NHL legend behind the bench, has optimism running high in Colorado – and for good reason. The Avs might be a year or two away from contending, but this should be an exciting, upset-minded team to watch this season.

Why not to bet the Avalanche: They’re unproven. While the pieces are in place for the Avs to be good for years to come, there will undoubtedly be some growing pains. How will Patrick Roy’s coaching style translate to the pros? He’s got the job done leading teenagers, but this is a different situation.

Season point total pick: Over 81.5

Dallas Stars (2012: 22-22-4)

Odds to win division: 15-1

Season point total: 87.5

Why to bet the Stars: Sweeping changes are expected to breathe some life into what has become a forgotten team in the West. Tyler Seguin is the new face of the franchise and should provide excitement up front. Lindy Ruff is a proven winner behind the bench.

Why not to bet the Stars: It remains to be seen where leadership will come from inside the dressing room with veterans few and far between. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen has shown flashes of brilliance but consistency between the pipes, or lack thereof, remains a big issue in Dallas.

Season point total pick: Under 87.5

Winnipeg Jets (2012: 24-21-3)

Odds to win division: 25-1

Season point total: 83.5

Why to bet the Jets: After falling just short of the postseason last spring, the Jets will be hungry to make the leap in 2013-14. Winnipeg didn’t do much to bolster its roster in the offseason, but keeps its core virtually intact and continuity isn’t a bad thing for a young squad.

Why not to bet the Jets: Is Ondrej Pavelec really the answer in goal? He’s held up reasonably well, but certainly isn’t a first-rate netminder. There’s plenty of grit up front, but not a lot of goal-scoring talent outside of Evander Kane and Andrew Ladd. The Jets defense is average at best.

Season point total pick: Over 83.5

Chicago Blackhawks (2012: 36-7-5)

Odds to win division: 1-2

Season point total: 112.5

Why to bet the Blackhawks: Unlike in 2010, when the Blackhawks lost a ton of talent following their Stanley Cup run, they remain relatively intact off of their latest Cup victory. You would be hard-pressed to find a more talented team from top to bottom. Re-signing last spring’s breakout start, Bryan Bickell, was key.

Why not to bet the Blackhawks: It goes without saying, no team will carry a bigger target on its back than Chicago. The Blackhawks essentially won wire-to-wire last season but will be hard-pressed to duplicate that effort in 2013-14. How hungry will the ‘Hawks be after raising the Cup in two of the last four years.

Season point total pick: Under 112.5

St. Louis Blues (2012: 29-17-2)

Odds to win division: 5-2

Season point total: 103.5

Why to bet the Blues: With a strong blue line and a balanced attack up front, the Blues are poised to take another run at the Blackhawks. Re-signing Alex Pieterangelo was critical, as was filling the void left by a retiring Andy McDonald. Derek Roy should fit in nicely as a second-line center.

Why not to bet the Blues: Who will be St. Louis’ go-to guy? Only three players reached double-digits in goals scored a year ago, and not much will change this season. The goaltending tandem of Jaroslav Halak and Brian Elliott looks good on paper, but both have been streaky.

Season point total pick: Under 103.5

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Pirates -140