10-5-13

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Cleveland Insider

English Premier League (10am est)
1* Newcastle/Cardiff City under 2.5

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CKO

11 BALL STATE over *Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
BALL STATE 30 - *Virginia 21

10 *NEBRASKA over Illinois
Late Score Forecast:
*NEBRASKA 41 - Illinois 19

10 *IDAHO over Fresno State
Late Score forecast:
*IDAHO 32 - Fresno State 45

10 *SOUTH CAROLINA over Kentucky
Late Score Forecast:
*SOUTH CAROLINA 43 - Kentucky 10

RATINGS:
11 - Exceptional
10 - Strong
9 - Above Average

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

EAST CAROLINA over Mid Tenn St RATING: 1

BAYLOR over West Virginia RATING: 1

STANFORD over Washington RATING: 2

MISSOURI over Vanderbilt RATING: 3

BOWLING GREEN over UMass RATING: 4

TEXAS STATE over La-Lafayette RATING: 4

OREGON over Colorado RATING: 5

OKLAHOMA STATE over Kansas St RATING: 5

RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 9-1
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 18-6

**The lower the number, the higher the play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INSIDE THE Pressbox / PHIL STEELE

BEST BETS

Boston College

Tulane - "Upset POW"

New Mexico St. vs New Mexico - "High Scoring POW"

South Carolina

East Carolina

Baylor

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

STATFOX SUPER SITUATIONS

• Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (BAYLOR) - off a bye week.
• The situation’s record is 45-9 over the last 10 seasons (83.3%, +35.1 units).
Rating = 5*

• Play On - A road team (NEVADA) - after going over total by 28+ points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team.
• The situation’s record is 23-3 over the last 5 seasons (88.5%, +19.7 units).
Rating = 3*
* * *
• Play On - A road team (OREGON) - after 3 straight wins by 17+ points against opponent after a playing a game where 60 total points or more were scored.
• The situation’s record is 25-3 over the last 5 seasons (89.3%, +21.7 units).
Rating = 4*

STATFOX SITUATIONAL POWER TEAM TRENDS

• ARKANSAS is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) after playing a game at home since the start of
last season.
The average score was ARKANSAS 21.2, OPPONENT 31.4.
PLAY ON FLORIDA
Rating= 5*

• UTAH STATE is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) after a win by 17 or more points since the start
of last season.
The average score was UTAH STATE 36.7, OPPONENT 15.1
PLAY ON UTAH STATE
Rating = 4*

• AUBURN is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) after a win against the spread since the start of
the 2011 season.
The average score was AUBURN 11.9, OPPONENT 40.
PLAY ON OLE MISS
Rating = 4*

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ROBERT FERRINGO

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL SELECTIONS

6-Unit Play. Take #335 Clemson (-13.5) over Syracuse (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 64.0 Clemson at Syracuse (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
Note: This is my College Football Game of the Month.
(This play is NOT from the KING System.)
The Carrier Dome is going to be rocking on Saturday. This is a highly anticipated ACC opener for the long-time Big East program. Syracuse is feeling good after back-to-back blowout wins, and they are focused to announce their presence in their new conference. There is just one problem: Clemson is going to hammer them.
Clemson plays big boy football. As great of an atmosphere as The Dome can be, it is not going to scare a Tigers team that has played in Death Valley, Blacksburg, Tallahassee, in ACC Title games, and in BCS games over the past few seasons. If anything, playing on the turf is going to take the phenomenal speed of the Tigers and make them even faster. Everyone that I spoke to this week that follows Syracuse football closely had the same reaction to the spread: ?That's it?? And while some people may think that this game is a trap I see a mismatch. Syracuse was noncompetitive in their game at Northwestern. And over the past three seasons the feeble SU program has been outclassed by most of the other top tier teams it has faced. The Orange are excited about new quarterback Terrel Hunt. And the kid has been amazing. But he has exactly two starts in this career and those came at home against Wagner and Tulane. I don't think he is going to be ready for this atmosphere and I think that Clemson's defense is going to be able to bait him into some turnovers.
I can see Syracuse hanging around for a half. This may be a 3- or 7-point game at the break. But then Clemson is going to come out and score to start the second half. Then we'll get a Hunt turnover or a short possession. Clemson will score again. Then the Orange will get stopped and give the ball back, and Clemson will score again. And within about eight minutes it will go from being a one-score game to being a 20+ point game. I don't see the Orange keeping Clemson under 40 in this one and I think that SU will find a way to get themselves 20 points. I will call this game at 48-23 for the visitors as Syracuse puts up a game effort, but just doesn't have the talent to stay close here.

4-Unit Play. Take #343 North Texas (-3) over Tulane (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
Note: This play is from my KING System.

2-Unit Play. Take #399 Ohio (-5) over Akron (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
Note: This play is from my KING System.

2-Unit Play. Take #347 Georgia (-10.5) over Tennessee (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
Note: This play is from my KING System.

2-Unit Play. Take #330 Virginia (-5) over Ball State (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #316 Iowa (+1) over Michigan State (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #326 Boston College (-11.5) over Army (1 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #383 Northern Illinois (-9) over Kent State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #338 Wake Forest (+8) over N.C. State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #350 Florida (-11.5) over Arkansas (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #359 Cincinnati (-11.5) over South Florida (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #401 Arizona State (-5.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. Take #388 South Carolina (-21) over Kentucky (7:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #410 Indiana (+3.5) over Penn State (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 5)

1-Unit Play. Take #382 Stanford (-7.5) over Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #351 LSU (-2.5) over Mississippi State (7 p.m.) AND Take #382 Stanford (-0.5) over Washington (10:30 p.m.)

3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 56.5 Mississippi at Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

5 Unit Play. #334 Take Miami -5 over Georgia Tech (3:30p.m., Saturday, Oct 5 ESPNU)
This game confused me as Georgia Tech is coming off a horrible loss last week to Virginia Tech and the Yellow Jackets played bad against North Carolina. Miami on the other hand has played inspired football since beating Florida the 1st week of September. Miami easily beat Savannah St 77-7 then last week Miami took care of South Florida 49-21 and I'm lowing out the 14 points USF scored in the 4th quarter. I thought Miami would be a solid -7 here in this home game and I see the U playing outstanding defense to rack up another W. The U defense has given up 50 points in 4 games and again USF scored 14 points in the 4th quarter last week but that quarter had pretty much no starters on the 'D' side. The U defense is fast and hits hard and will give the Yellow Jackets trouble early Saturday afternoon. If Georgia Tech offense struggled last week against the Hokies defense, which I believe the U defense is better, this game is won by Miami by the 4th quarter. Georgia Tech is 2-6-1 ATS in the month of October and the Hurricanes are 13-3 ATS against conference opponents. Miami is also 7-1 ATS at home and the U is a perfect 4-0 ATS against the Yellow Jackets.

2 Unit Play. #356 Take Virginia Tech -7 over North Carolina (12:30p.m., Saturday, Oct 5)

5 Unit Play. #381 Take Over 52 - Washington at Stanford (10:30p.m., Saturday, Oct 5 ESPN)
(Total Game of the Week)
Stanford is a perfect 4-0 this season and the Cardinals offense is averaging a whopping 41ppg. Stanford gets this game in their backyard and if the Huskies can't stop the run this scoreboard will be used quickly and often. Stanford rushed last week for over 200 yards against Washington St and the Cardinals scored 55 points so this total has me a bit confused. Washington won last week (31-13 against Arizona) but the Huskies rushing defense gave up 211 and let Ka'Deem Carey rush for 132 yards. Again, if the Washington Huskies can't slow down the rushing attack of Stanford this game gets out of control and the Cardinals win big, game goes over, and we cash a 5-Unit ticket on the over. Should be a great PAC-12 battle and defense will be only played late in the 4th quarter and I see both teams scoring in the mid-30's. We hope the game is not like last year when Washington won at home 17-13! Washington is 5-2 O/U in the month of October and Stanford is 4-0 O/U in conference games and the Cardinals are 5-1 O/U following a SU win by 20 points or more.

2 Unit Play. #408 Take Northwestern +7 over Ohio St (8:00p.m., Saturday, Oct 5 ABC)
Yes I believe if the Buckeyes win this game we can pencil them the BCS Championship game but this matchup in Evanston, Illinois will not be a piece of cake. The Northwestern Wildcats are coming off a bye week after easily winning against Maine at home so the extra week could be the key factor in this huge Big 10 matchup. Ohio St is coming off a home over Wisconsin so they are also clicking on all cylinders but again this matchup will be hostile for the Ohio St Buckeyes. The Wildcats have balance on offense and if they can rush the ball with success and keep the Buckeyes offense off the field I see this game a lot closer then what my fellow oddsmakers are predicting. Northwestern defense (especially Chi Chi Ariguzo and Ibraheim Campbell) will be focus with the extra week to prepare and I see this game whoever wins by 2-fieldgoals. Northwestern is 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games and the home team in this series is also 7-2-1 ATS.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE

5 Unit Play Take #354 Tulsa -3 over Rice (3:30pm est):
Been disappointed with what I have seen thus far from this Tulsa squad but when you look deeper you see they do have some excuses for their slow start as they have caught some teams at the wrong time thus far. In fact all three of their last three opponents faced off versus Tulsa with chips on the shoulders having lost their previous game. Expect the Golden Hurricanes to be rejuvenated here in this one as this is the start of the conference season here for them and a chance to defend their Conference USA crown. They have had little problems with Rice in the past beating them the last six years and by an average of nearly twenty points a game.

Speaking of Rice, the Owls have also not played anywhere near as well as most folks thought the Owls would this season so far. Rice pulled off a miracle home last week in a game they had trailed most of the contest until very late. They took advantage of a FAU squad who was without their starting quarterback in that contest and who also shot themselves in the foot down the stretch of that game. Rice was clearly overmatched in their loss against Houston before that and had a dull but winning effort at home versus a weak Kansas team the week before Houston.

Tulsa was the conference champions last season. Their poor start this year should have them even more fired up for this year's fresh new start here in conference play. They should be sky high with confidence coming into this one here. Take Tulsa minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #344 Tulane +3 over North Texas (3:30pm est):
Real head scratcher of a line in this one as my numbers show Tulane being favored in this contest. Tulane has shown some great strides here in head coach Curtis Johnson's 2nd season. The Green Wave have went on the road and picked up two nice underdog wins the last three weeks and did so in dominating fashion as well. Even their loss to Syracuse sandwiched in the middle of those two victories was a much better loss that than the final score.

North Texas has had a few misleading box scores here early on as they were hammered in their loss to Georgia last game despite being tied early in the 3rd quarter of that contest. The Mean Green got two special teams touchdowns early on in that game to make things interesting but by the end of the game they were outgained by almost 400 yards. Their win before that over Ball State was a fluke victory as not only did they face a Ball State squad without their top offensive weapon out due to injury but most importantly they took advantage of five gift wrapped Cardinals turnovers in the game to come from behind and steal the win.

Tulane is a an up and coming under the radar program that we can take advantage of maybe one more week before the other bettors jump in on them. Take Tulane and the points in this game.

3 Unit Play Take #374 Louisiana Lafayette -11 over Texas State (7:00pm est):
Tough trip here for Texas State who comes in off a big upset win last game over Wyoming. The Wyoming Cowboys looked to be in a letdown spot after their big blowout victory over Air Force the week before. Add in a long weather delay and the high powered Wyoming offense was never able to get into rhythm last Saturday. I felt the Bobcats were outplayed in their season opening win over Southern Mississippi but they took advantage of some turnovers to steal the win from a team who outgained them by nearly 200 yards in the contest. This team isn't as good as most think right now after their upset victory.

ULL comes in off a nice bye week and should be pumped up for this one as it's their only game in a 25 day span. We should see an extremely focused Ragin Cajuns team as they not only come in off a bye but have a bye next weekend as well making this a true stand alone game. Add in the fact this is the all important conference opener here for a team like ULL who feels it has a legitimate shot at winning the championship this season. They have also been in some tough spots here early on and have held up nicely considering they went into Arkansas the opening week to play what was a fired up Razorbacks squad in their season opener and who was with a new head coach in that game. The following week they were sent to the chopping block as they had to go to a very upset Kansas State team who was coming off a huge upset loss in week one to FCS power North Dakota State. The Wildcats were obviously in a foul mood but ULL hung tough and played a much closer game than the 21 point loss.

We should get a full out prime effort here from a well rested team in this one. Lay the point and take ULL here.

3 Unit Play Take #405 Louisiana Tech pick over UTEP (7:30pm est):
I think LA Tech is an underrated team now after beginning the year not sold on this team at all. The Bulldogs started off the year going into what now looks to be a better than expected NC State team and though they were beat soundly in that game, a lot of the difference in that game was due to the four lost fumbles for LA Tech. They got a win in week two before losing a nationally televised game to another very improved team in Tulane in week three. They did everything right in the following week at Kansas but at the end blew numerous chances late in that game and lost a heartbreaker. The good news to come out of that contest though with the much better play at the quarterback position as Ryan Higgins got his first career start for the Bulldogs and he played very well in that game. They were beat this past Saturday by an Army team who had lost their last three straight games but they came out of that game knowing a lot more about the option which should help them here as UTEP runs some of the same things that Army does on offense. Once again LA Tech seemed very happy with an offense performance that has been much better these past few weeks.

Not a big fan of this UTEP team. The Miners were outplayed as a favorite in their week one loss at home to New Mexico. Though they did get the win in week two versus New Mexico State they gave up a ton of yardage to what is a very bad team in that one. They were no match in their third game and again were pushed around last week at CSU. This may be the worst defense in all of CFB right now as not only are they allowing an almost unheard eight yards per play and keep in mind that this has come against mainly running teams that aren't known as being strong offensive squads.

LA Tech looks much further along to me than UTEP does. They actually have a decent defense and now with the better QB play I expect them to have no trouble here beating what is a very bad UTEP team. Take LA Tech in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #338 Wake Forest +7.5 over North Carolina State (3:30pm est):
This is all about pure line value here. This line would have been around pick'em if this were the first game of the year but because NC State has had the luxury of playing all of their games at home so far this season they are now being overvalued. The Wolfpack don't handle the role of road favorites in the ACC very well, having lost ten of the last twelve times in this type of spot. Still not sold on this new quarterback of there's either as he has just one touchdown to five interceptions on the season.

Gut check time for a Wake Forest team who many felt would be greatly improved before this season but the Demon Deacons have been dealt a difficult hand to begin play this year. Wake Forest was asked to go on the road three of the last four weeks including last weekend's trouncing at an angry and focused Clemson who many felt weren't playing as well as they should have been early on. Wake Forest should have beaten ULM at home a few weeks back and even played a lot better than their two score loss at what now looks to be a much better Boston College also earlier this season.

Jim Grobe coached teams usually play very well off a straight up loss, having covered 9 of the last 12 times in this spot. His Wake Forest teams have always been known to be very tough to beat as a home underdog and even more impressive is the fact they have beat NC State eight straight times ATS at home coming into this game. This is a huge revenge spot as well for the beating NC State put on the Deacons last season, a big game for an NC State team who needed a win to become bowl eligible. Take Wake Forest and the points here in this game.

3 Unit Play Take #402 Notre Dame +6 over Arizona State (7:30pm est):
This is asking a lot here from an Arizona State team playing it's fourth straight big game in the last four weeks. I felt this Sun Devils looked very soft in their games against Wisconsin and Stanford and they were having a lot of troubles against USC early in the 3rd quarter last week before they got a few bounces go their way and a key injury to a USC player and than it just looked like the Trojans quit fighting down the stretch giving ASU the easy win. Overall I wasn't overly impressed by an ASU team who seemed a tad bit too excited after the win last weekend. You wonder how easily they will be able to turn things around after that big revenge win last week over USC and now travel to Arlington here for what should be a pro Notre Dame crowd and an angry Irish team.

The Irish aren't a happy bunch as they ran into a determined and talented Oklahoma team last weekend and who were also playing with revenge. Notre Dame didn't play that bad in the loss last week but instead were forced to have to play from behind from the start of that game and they just weren't perfect enough to make up the early 14 point deficit the rest of the game. The Irish did look to be about even with what is a solid Sooners team after the early game mishaps and they should be extremely focused here in this one as you know any Brian Kelly coached team will play well off a loss and already their 2nd one of the young season. Add in a bye next week for Notre Dame should also help their focus here in this one.

This is just way too many points. ASU hasn't done enough this season against good teams to warrant laying almost a full touchdown to what is still a very solid program like ND. Take Notre Dame and the points in this one.

3 Unit Play Take #411 San Jose State -4.5 over Hawaii (12:00pm est):
As you can see with most of my CFB card this week it's all about finding value and when doing that sometimes you have to back teams that haven't been playing well of late. This is where the bargains are when betting. San Jose State is off to a frustrating 1-3 start with three straight losses but let's be realistic here. Outside of maybe beating Minnesota on the road a few weeks back there is no game the Spartans should have won that they didn't. In fact they have had some crappy breaks in scheduling thus far as they played what amounted to a 9am EST start versus the Gophers in their loss to them and then was forced to turn around a week later and face a very talented Utah State team who was off their 2nd close loss of the season. SJSU has a pro prospect at quarterback in David Fales who despite the losing has put up some decent numbers this year.

I am not letting last week's Hawaii comeback fool me. The Rainbows were down 42-3 to a Fresno State team who was coming off a big win over Boise State the week before and who obviously had fallen asleep behind the wheel. Hawaii went with a new quarterback and came storming back to lose by just five points in that game. The week before Hawaii was easily beaten by a Nevada team who was without their star quarterback and was going with a huge drop off at the signal caller position. I have said since the beginning of last year that I am not a big fan of Hawaii's hire of Norm Chow last season and feel this is a stale program that is not going anywhere. The bottom line is their late comeback last week cost them a few extra points of line value in this one that I will gladly take backing the other side.

SJSU is a decent team still who can still make some noise this season once things get a little easier for them. I think we get their top game here after three straight losses while I think Hawaii is feeling way too good about for making a comeback after being down 42-3. Take San Jose State here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

8-Unit Play. #382 Take Stanford (-7.5) over Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, October 5)
College Football Game of the Year
It is a Top 25 Pac-12 match-up between two quality teams in Washington and Stanford. The Huskies are a legit Top 25 team. However Stanford is a legit Top 5 team. I was really surprised this line was not around ten or eleven points seeing as how this game in on The Farm in Palo Alto. Stanford have just one lone loss at home in the last 3+ years. That was to a dynamite Oregon team in 2011, and this Washington team is not that Ducks team. You also account for the fact that the Cardinal's only loss last season was in Seattle to these Huskies and this sets up perfectly for the type of revenge game you can hope for between two conference opponents. I really do not feel as though UW have proven themselves away from the Pacific Northwest. They haven't played a true road game this season, and looking back over the last couple of seasons the numbers don't lie. Washington is 6-11 on the road over the last three years. Simply mediocre. And before last season's Washington upset over Stanford, the Cardinal had won the previous three meetings by an average win margin of 35 points. Yes, that is no typo. Washington is 1-7 ATS in their last eight road games vs teams with winning home records, and I consider Stanford's home field advantage to be a major component in this game, especially compounded with the recent road woes trends of the Huskies. Stanford are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 conference games. I love this spot for them just as much as I love the number we are getting on the home favorite. Stanford know anything less than a perfect league record likely means no shot at a National Championship or maybe even a Rose Bowl birth. They won't be looking ahead to Oregon this early but still are certainly aware they will need to take care of business for that November clash to mean something next month. A Stanford win here also comes with a cover. The Cardinal dominate the line of scrimmage and really set the tone for a comfortable home victory over a good opponent, 35-20.

2-Unit Play. #331 Take Maryland (+15.5) over Florida State (12 p.m., Saturday, October 5)
FSU is good but in my mind I still wonder just how good. This is their first test of the season and really freshman quarterback Jameis Winston's real first opportunity to play against a legit conference team. Maybe this is too many points, and I am willing to take the number with a Maryland team that is riding high after a fast start and a quality first month to the season. I don't see a victory of three scores by the Seminoles, so we'll grab the number and see if the underdog Terps can't make this one a close game in Tallahassee.

2-Unit Play. #316 Take Iowa (+1.5) over Michigan State (12 p.m., Saturday, October 5)
The wrong team is favored. What are the Spartans doing being favored in Iowa City? They haven't earned that. They don't have a team worth writing home about just yet. So in order to validate a line like this, they are going to have to go out and beat the Hawkeyes at home. I don't see that being the case. We cashed Iowa last week as a small favorite on the road in Minnesota. Now we'll go right back to the well with them at home as a small underdog.

3-Unit Play. #401 Take Arizona State (-4.5) over Notre Dame (7:30 p.m., Saturday, October 5)
We have a pretty good read on the Sun Devils. We correctly predicted them to upset Wisconsin at home several weeks ago. Last week we cashed them over USC as we said they would blown out the Trojans. Here we have another bet on Arizona State, and I think their up tempo offense will be too much for Notre Dame. If this were anyone else with the same kind of the talent, the spread would be closer to ten. But because the Irish are a public team, people can't seem to tell it like it is. There is nothing special about Notre Dame this season. I think Arizona State's pass rush will cause problems just as they did against Southern Cal last weekend. Sun Devils take care of business in this non-conference match-up in a neutral site in Dallas.

2-Unit Play. #407 Take Ohio State (-6.5) over Northwestern (8 p.m., Saturday, October 5)
I'll be the first one to admit this play is kind of square. But seeing the Buckeyes offense score at will for the most part this season makes me think they can go to Evanston and knock off a good opponent. Plus, as good as the Wildcats are showing to be in terms of potential, it's one thing to beat middle of the road teams and completely another to come to play with your 'A' game when the best of the Big Ten comes to your place. Let's see how they react in a huge night game against Ohio State and Urban Meyer. I'll lay the points with the idea that the chalk holds up, albeit a competitive game for the first three quarters.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

CHAD MATTHEWS

4-Unit play. #334 Miami Hurricanes -6 over the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
(Oct 5 @ 3:30pm ET)
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets head south this Saturday to take on the Miami Hurricanes at Sun Life Stadium. The Hurricanes have been one of the more elite teams in the NCAA in my opinion. The Hurricanes have started the first four games of the season averaging 45 points per game and limiting their opponents to an average of 12 points per contest. Miami is dominating their opposition by an average of 33 points per game in the first 4 games of the season alone! The Yellow Jackets are a running team and do not go to the passing game much. Last week the Yellow Jackets got shut down by Virginia Tech and were limited to only 129 yards on the ground. I see the same thing happening here again this weekend with the Yellow Jackets going up against a much better defense than Virginia Tech's. Take the Hurricanes and lay the points at -6

3-Unit play. #383 Northern Illinois Huskies -9 over the Kent State Golden Flashes
(Oct 5 @ 3:30pm ET)
The Northern Illinois Huskies head to Kent State in what should be an offensive show down. The Huskies are ranked 15th in the league averaging 43 points per contest where Kent State sits towards the bottom ranking 117th and only averaging 17 points per game. The Huskies do not have the greatest defense currently ranking 81st but their potent offense makes up for it. I just don't see the Golden Flashes being able to keep pace with this high powered Huskies offense. The Huskies are on a roll without a doubt. Take the Huskies and the -9 here.

5-Unit play. #359 Cincinnati Bearcats -11 over the South Florida Bulls
(Oct 5 @ 7pm ET)
The Cincinnati Bearcats head to Raymond James Stadium to take on a pathetic South Florida Bulls team that has been pounded by opponents an average of 23 points per game the first four games into the season. The Bulls have no offense, no defense and are a true broken team again this year. The Bearcats are ranked 19th in the league in defense only allowing an average of 15 points per game where the Bulls are allowing an average of 38 points a game ranked 113th in the league. The Bulls are averaging a measly 14 points per contest where the Bearcats have managed to average 35 points per game their first four games of the season. This line should be set much higher in my opinion. Look for the Bearcats defense to just dominate this joke of a Bulls team. Take Cincinnati and the points at -11

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

2-Unit Play. Take #329 Ball State (+5.5) over Virginia (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 5)
I like the MAC team here. Ball State has one of the best offenses in the country. They are facing a Virginia team that has scored 19 or less points in five straight games against FBS teams. I think Ball State will be more excited for this game. They want a chance to knock off an ACC team. Virginia is in the middle of conference play and lost its conference opener last week at Pittsburgh. This Ball State team beat Indiana and beat South Florida last year. This team also beat Indiana in 2011. They have knocked off teams from big conferences before. I think that Ball State can do it again. I think this team can win outright. I will take the points.

5-Unit Play. Take #385 Mississippi (-2.5) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
This is my Game of the Week.
I will go with the road favorite in this game. The books have made Ole Miss the road favorite here for a reason. They are a much stronger team. The Rebels were shutout and embarrassed last week in Alabama. A lot of people watched that game and bet on Mississippi and were burned. That was not a good game and didn't show how strong this team is. Mississippi already won at Vanderbilt this year. They have a really good quarterback in Bo Wallace. Huge Freeze is 7-1 ATS after his team loses and the Rebels have the much stronger team here. I thought this line would be closer to 6.0. I think that this game will be close for a while but I see the Rebels pulling away in the second half and winning this game by at least a touchdown.

3-Unit Play. Take #342 Marshall (-14) over UT-San Antonio (2 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
I like Marshall in this game to win big. This team is coming off a bye. I think they need the extra rest. Marshall is 2-0 at home and has won 55-0 and 52-14. I think they can have another blowout. Texas-San Antonio lost at home 59-28 in its last game. This is the first conference game for both teams and I think that the Thundering Herd will have the upper hand. They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall and I think they will take advantage of that time out. Marshall ranks higher on offense and on defense and has a more experienced team. Lay the points here.

3-Unit Play. Take 3382 Stanford (-7) over Washington (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 5)
I like the home team here. Stanford has blown out its last two opponents. They also are playing a Washington team that is much better at home than on the road. Stanford's defense has one of the best front sevens in the county. They will be able to slow down the Huskies fast attack. But I do not think that the Washington defense is going to stop the power attack of the Cardinal. This is a big revenge game for Stanford. Last year they blew a 10-point lead and lost outright late to the Huskies. The Cardinal will not lose to Washington twice in a row. Stanford is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine meetings. This team has done very well with revenge over the last five years. The home field advantage and that extra motivation is too much. Go with Stanford in what will be a three touchdown win for the home team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

SMART MONEY GAME OF THE DAY!

LSU (-10) at Mississippi St. 7:00 ET ESPN
10* Mississippi State +10
Here is another .500 or better, rested, home dog coming off a win and playing with revenge. Rounding out our situation is the fact that LSU comes off an emotionally draining loss to Georgia while knowing they must host Florida next week.

LSU QB Mettenberger was dynamic in his return home to Athens. Combining with top-notch receivers, Landry and Beckham, Mettenberger tossed it for 372 yards. The fact that LSU knows they have won 13 straight games in this series and has a long term-record of 20-1 SU and 17-4 ATS vs. Mississippi St. aides in a letdown. Mississippi St. is sneaky good with a defense allowing 15 and 310 PPG and an offense that is a member of the 200 Club. Ideal spot for the upset.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 6 of College Football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Saturday's college football action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The Air Force Falcons face the Navy Midshipmen in early action with the latter as 11.5-point home faves. The Falcons are 1-9 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

- The Florida State Seminoles ride an eight-game winnings streak against ACC opposition into Saturday's matchup with the Maryland Terrapins. The 'Noles are 15.5-point home faves.

- The Penn State Nittany Lions are one of 12 schools that have scored on 100 percent of their possessions inside the red zone.

- The aforementioned Nittany Lions travel to Indiana to face the high-octane Hoosiers. The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in Indiana and the total for Saturday's game is 65.5.

- Louisville QB Teddy Bridgewater tossed five TDs en route to a 45-17 victory over Temple last season. Teddy and the Cards are 32-point road faves Saturday.

- The Virginia Cavaliers’ defense leads the nation with 8.5 three-and-outs per game, and Virginia has registered 3.25 sacks per contest (tied for 10th nationally). The Cavaliers are 5.5-point home faves against Ball State Saturday.

- The Buffalo Bulls are 4-0 O/U on the season. They host Eastern Michigan with a total of 54.

- The Kansas Jayhawks host the Texas Tech Red Raiders Saturday. The Raiders are 16.5-point road faves Saturday and are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Kansas.

- When Rutgers rushes for 150 yards or more, it is 34-8 since 2006.

- SMU is ranked 46th in the country, allowing 140 rushing yards per game. The Scarlet Knights are 4.5-point road faves at SMU Saturday.

- No. 1 Alabama faces Georgia State Saturday. The last time these two programs met was in 2010 with 'Bama prevailing 63-7 as 44-point faves. The Tide are 54.5-point home faves this time around.

- The UNC Tar Heels are at Virginia Tech where the under is 4-0 in the previous four meetings. Total for this one is 46.

- The Central Michigan Chippewas (0-4 ATS) are one of eight teams that have yet to cover a spread this season. They'll look to break that streak at Miami (Ohio) as 3-point road faves.

- Army is at Boston College Saturday with a total of 50.5. The two programs are 4-0 O/U in their last four meetings with available totals.

- The Troy Trojans are one of two programs sporting 5-0 O/U records. There is a total of 62.5 with South Alabama in town Saturday.

- Marshall is 11th in the nation converting 54 percent of its third down conversions.

- Ohio is at Akron Saturday. The Bobcats have won five straight meetings and have covered the spread in four of those five matchups. The Zips are 5-point home dogs.

- UAB's defense allows 7.7 yards per play, ranking the school third from the bottom in that category. The Blazers are 3.5-point home faves versus Florida Atlantic Saturday.

- The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings between Western Michigan and Toledo. The Rockets are 21.5-point home faves Saturday.

- The Georgia Bulldogs are in Knoxville to face the Tennessee Volunteers Saturday. Tennessee hasn't beaten a ranked opponent knocking off No. 21 South Carolina in 2009, and they haven't topped a top-10 team since they beat No. 10 Georgia in 2006.

- Michigan has won 17 in a row at home — the longest active streak among BCS conference schools. The Wolverines are 19-point home faves against Minnesota.

- The Over is 5-1 in the previous six matchups when Rice is at Tulsa. Saturday's total is 54.5.

- The North Texas Mean Green quarterbacks - Derek Thompson, Dajon Williams and Andrew McNulty - have combined to complete 68.9 percent of their passes. As a team, that ranks the Mean Green 12th nationally. The Mean Green are 3-point road faves at Tulane.

- The NC State Wolfpack are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games at Wake Forest. State will give it another go as 7.5-point road faves Saturday.

- The Syracuse Orange beat standout quarterbacks Geno Smith of West Virginia in 2011 and Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater last year at the Carrier Dome. Saturday sees Tajh Boyd and Clemson in town favored by a pair of touchdowns.

- Bowling Green tossed a 24-0 shutout at UMass last season and covered as 19.5-point faves. This year, the Falcons are 26.5-point home faves with UMass visiting.

- The Northern Illinois Huskies have defeated Kent State in the previous six meetings are are 5-0-1 ATS in that stretch. The Huskies are 9-point road faves Saturday.

- The Miami Hurricanes are Saturday's top consensus pick at 78.23 percent as 5.5-point home faves against Georgia Tech.

- The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders are 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. They are 7.5-point home dogs versus East Carolina.

- The Oklahoma State Cowboys are riding a seven game ATS winning streak at home. They are favored by 13.5 with Kansas State visiting.

- Cal is tops in the country running an average of 98 plays per game.

- The Washington State Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings at Cal. The Cougars are 1.5-point road faves.

- The lowest scoring team in the country? That would be Florida International, who is averaging a microscopic 3.3 points per game.

- Central Florida has scored 32 points or more in each of the last four games against Memphis. Total of 48 Saturday.

- Fresno State leads the series with Idaho 10-4 and won the most-recent meeting – a 48-24 victory in 2011 when Derek Carr passed for 371 yards and five touchdowns. State is a 27-point road fave Saturday.

- Twenty-six of Oregon's 31 offensive touchdowns have come on drives of fewer than two minutes.

- The Oklahoma Sooners defense is allowing just 12 points per game, which ranks them sixth nationally. The Sooners are 9.5-point home faves against TCU.

- The Under is 9-1 in the Texas State Bobcats last 10 road games. The total at Louisiana Lafayette is 55.

- The LSU Tigers are 8-1 ATS in the last nine games at Mississippi State. The Tigers are 9.5-point road faves Saturday.

- Florida Gators QB Tyler Murphy finished 15-of-18 for 156 yards, one TD and one pick in his start against Kentucky last week. It was his first start under center since the Gators lost starting QB Jeff Driskel for the season. It was also the Gators first ATS win of the season. The Gators are 13-point home faves against Arkansas Saturday.

- Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS in their last four games at South Florida. The Bearcats are 12-point road faves Saturday.

- Auburn just can't string together back-to-back ATS wins. The Tigers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. They covered as 17-point dogs against LSU in their last game and are 3-point home dogs against Ole Miss Saturday.

- The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five games in the Rio Grande Rivalry between New Mexico and New Mexico State. The Lobos are 11-point home faves this time around.

- Arizona State quarterback Taylor Kelly has thrown for more than 300 yards in each of the Sun Devils’ first four games. The Notre Dame defense allows 230 yards passing per game and are 6-point home dogs against the Sun Devils.

- Louisiana Tech is one of five programs with an O/U record of 0-5. They have a total of 60 when they travel to UTEP Saturday.

- The over is 6-0 in the last six meetings between Kentucky and South Carolina. The total for Saturday's matchup is 54.

- Missouri and No. 1 Alabama are the only two undefeated SEC teams. The Tigers put that perfect record on the line at Vanderbilt - who is a 1-point home dog Saturday.

- The Baylor Bears lead the nation in scoring, averaging a whopping 70 points per game. The Bears host West Virginia with a total of 69.5.

- The Mountaineers have not played over the total yet this season (0-5 O/U).

- The home team is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between Ohio State and Northwestern. The Wildcats are 7-point home dogs Saturday.

- Stanford is 32-3 at Stanford Stadium since the final home game of 2007. The Cardinal are 7.5-point home faves against the Washington Huskies.

- The San Jose State Spartans are 14-3 ATS in their previous 17 road games. The Spartans are 5-point road faves at Hawaii Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Weather Report Possible thunderstorms expected

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-17, 58)

There is a 17 percent chance of thunderstorms that could hit late in this game.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers (+3, 65.5)

There is a 68 percent chance of thunderstorms for this game.

Louisville Cardinals at Temple Owls (+32, 58)

Forecasts are calling for a 25 percent chance of rain.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Buffalo Bulls (-12.5, 52)

Forecasts are calling for a 25 percent chance of rain.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Nebraska Cornhuskers (-8.5, 60.5)

Wind will blow across the field upwards of 20 mph.

Michigan State Spartans at Iowa Hawkeyes (-1, 37.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 67 percent chance of rain at Kinnick Stadium.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at SMU Mustangs (+4.5, 55)

There is a 50 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami (OH) RedHawks (+3, 47)

Forecasts are calling for a 57 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Ohio Bobcats at Akron Zips (+5, 57)

There is a 39 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast for Akron.

Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets (-21.5, 57.5)

There is a 29 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind will blow toward the north endzone at 7 mph.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Michigan Wolverines (-19, 48.5)

There is a 24 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Massachusetts Minutemen at Bowling Green Falcons (-26.5, 55)

There is a 34 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9, 64.5)

Forecasts are calling for a 27 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Kansas State Wildcats at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-13.5, 59.5)

Wind will blow toward the east endzone at 13 mph.

FIU Golden Panthers at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (-17, 46)

Forecasts call for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

UCF Knights at Memphis Tigers (+9.5, 48)

Forecasts are calling for a 53 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Texas State Bobcats at UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns (-11.5, 55)

Forecasts in Lafayette are calling for a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms.

Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores (+1, 55.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears (-28.5, 69.5)

There is a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+7, 61)

The forecast in Evanston is calling for a 74 percent chance of thunderstorms. Wind will blow toward the north endzone at 12 mph.