10-5-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

5* - [402] Notre Dame +6 -102 vs Arizona State

5* - [408] Northwestern +7 -110 vs Ohio State

5* - [381] Washington +7.5 -120 vs Stanford

4* - [362] Oklahoma State -13.5 -108 vs Kansas State

3* - [347] Georgia OVER 64 -105 vs Tennessee U

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside sports report

5* Vtech - 7

3* Over 60 - ill/neb

3* Iowa (pk) vs mich st.

3* Ohio St. - 7 vs Northwestern

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RIVER CITY SHARPS

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats
8:00 PM EST – Ryan Field
Current Line – Ohio State (-7)
A matchup of the two favorites at this point in the Big 10, both of which come into the game undefeated. Ohio State pulled out a 31-24 win last week against Wisconsin, a game that featured the return of QB Braxton Miller. He had 198 pass yds and 4 TD’s against the Badgers and looks back in mid-season form. The Wildcats have lost the last four meetings to the Buckeyes, but will get a big lift with the return of senior RB Venric Mack. The Wildcat offense is really stout, averaging 41 ppg and features a 2 QB system with Green and Colter. We think this will be an electric environment Saturday night in Evanston and really think the Wildcats have a chance to shock the world. We wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see the outright upset, but glad to grab the points at home! The Sharps say….

Sharps Play – 2 UNIT PLAY ON NORTHWESTERN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rays at Red Sox What Bettors Need to Know

Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (+108, 7.5)

Red Sox lead series 1-0.

The biggest worry for the Boston Red Sox prior to Game 1 of the American League Division Series was rust after taking four days off between games. That turned out to not be much of a concern in a 12-2 victory, and the Red Sox will look to take a commanding lead in the best-of-five series when they host Game 2 on Saturday. Tampa Bay finished second in the majors in fielding percentage but looked uncomfortable on defense in Game 1.

Rays left fielder Sean Rodriguez had trouble judging balls off the “Green Monster” and rookie Wil Myers let a fly ball drop on the warning track in deep right-center in Game 1, leading to big innings for the Red Sox. With right-hander John Lackey scheduled to start for Boston on Saturday, Tampa Bay will likely give Rodriguez the start off in Game 2. Every Red Sox starter recorded at least one hit in Game 1, and seven different players had at least one RBI.

TV: 5:37 p.m. ET, TBS

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow in from CF at 6 mph.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Rays LH David Price (10-8, 3.33 ERA) vs. Red Sox RH John Lackey (10-13, 3.52)

Price pitched Tampa Bay into the playoffs by holding the Texas Rangers to two runs on seven hits in a complete game on Monday. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner allowed two runs in each of his last five starts, including over eight innings against the Red Sox on Sept. 10. Price is 1-3 with a 3.96 ERA in his postseason career but came out of the bullpen against Boston in the 2008 ALCS, including closing out a Game 7 win.

Lackey last pitched at Colorado on Sept. 24 and struggled to a 4.98 ERA in five starts over the final month of the regular season. The veteran faced Tampa Bay twice in 2013 and was knocked around for nine runs on 19 hits in 10 total innings. Lackey is making his first postseason appearance since 2009, when he was with the Los Angeles Angels, and is 3-4 with a 3.12 ERA in 14 career playoff games - 12 starts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in Price's last five road starts vs. Red Sox.
* Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings in Boston.
* Red Sox are 4-1 in their last five games with umpire Eric Cooper behind home plate.
* Under is 6-2 in Lackeys last eight starts vs. American League East.

WALK-OFFS:

1. Red Sox backup C David Ross is 2-for-5 with two home runs in his career against Price and is expected to catch Lackey on Saturday.

2. Myers is 1-for-11 with five strikeouts in the last three games.

3. Boston has recorded 41 straight stolen bases without being caught.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lightning at Blackhawks What Bettors Need to Know

Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks (-209, 5.5)

The Chicago Blackhawks hung a second Stanley Cup banner in four years Tuesday and took up where they left off by rallying to win their opener. The Blackhawks look to build off that when the young Tampa Bay Lightning make their only visit on Saturday night. Patrick Kane and Marian Hossa scored goals in the 6-4 victory over Washington to start the season and the Lightning gave up a pair of shorthanded tallies to drop a 3-1 decision at Boston on Thursday.

Tampa Bay, who struggled with the man advantage at key times a season ago, was 0-for-5 on the power play in its opener without injured point man Sami Salo. Chicago killed only three of six penalties against Washington, but snuffed out a 5-on-3 late in the contest to hold the lead. The Lightning hosts Blackhawks on Oct. 24 in addition to difficult games with Pittsburgh, Los Angeles and Boston this month.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, SunSports (Tampa Bay), CSN Chicago

ABOUT THE LIGHTNING (0-1-0): Tampa Bay hopes for the return of Salo, who missed Friday’s practice with an upper-body injury and is day-to-day. Mark Barberio took Salo’s place on defense, giving the Lightning eight players at 23 or younger in the lineup opening night – four on the blue line. The Lightning’s top forward unit of Martin St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Ryan Malone were kept off the scoresheet against Boston and combined for seven shots while sustaining minimal pressure.

ABOUT THE BLACKHAWKS (1-0-0): It will be virtually impossible for Chicago to match its 24-game unbeaten streak that opened last season, but they aren’t showing signs of a Stanley Cup hangover. “The guys have always been in a good place since day one of the season,” coach Joel Quenneville said after the first game. “You’ve got to commend them on how they prepared themselves.” The Blackhawks received at least a point from five of its six defensemen in the opener while blue liners Johhny Oduya and Niklas Hjalmarsson recorded plus-4 ratings.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Lightning are 2-7 in the last nine meetings in Chicago.
* Lightning are 19-50 in their last 69 road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Lightning last four Saturday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lightning C Valtteri Filppula, a former Detroit Red Wing, will play his 40th career game against Chicago – tied for second most behind St. Louis (41).

2. Chicago RW Ben Smith, a healthy scratch in the first game, is expected to replace rookie RW Jimmy Hayes in the lineup.

3. Tampa Bay won the last three games against Chicago, but one was in overtime and another in a shootout.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Point Train's CFB Best Bet - Saturday7-Unit-#409 Penn State (-3) over Indiana– 11:00 AM CST

After suffering a home defeat vs. UCF on Sep 14, PSU coach Obrien had his team ready for a huge game against Kent State. Penn State shut out Kent State and held them to 190 yards and nine first downs. PSU had a bye week after that win and Obrien spent the week working with his freshman QB Hackenberg who is playing beyond his years (1,027 yards on 62.2% completions). He’ll have Hackenberg prepped for his first road test of his career against a porous Indiana defense. Indiana was abysmal in its last game loss to Missouri. The Hoosiers’ defense allowed Mizzou to gain 623 total yards and 33 first downs. This unit simply isn’t showing any signs of improvement. Expect the Nittany Lions to use their three headed running attack of Zwinak, Lynch, and Belton to expose the Hoosiers 117thranked rush defense. That will allow Hackenberg and the PSU offense to control the clock and keep Indiana’s spread offense out of rhythm. PSU is a perfect 16-0 SU all-time against Indiana and are 4-2 ATS in the last six trips to Memorial Stadium. The Nittany Lions are 10-1 SU & 9-2 ATS in the last 11 Big Ten road games as a favorite.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Nelly's Football - 3* NCAA Top Play - Saturday, Oct. 53* #386 Auburn +3 over Mississippi 6:00 PM CT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BEST Football - 20* ACC Conference Game of the Year - Oct. 520* #331 Maryland +16 over Florida State 11:00 AM CT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maximum Football - Saturday NCAA 3* Picks - Oct. 53*
#356 Virginia Tech -8.5 over North Carolina 11:30 AM CT3
* #357 TCU +10.5 over Oklahoma 6:00 PM CT3
* #382 Stanford -8.5 over Washington 9:30 PM CT3*
#395 Texas Tech -17 over Kansas 11:00 AM CT3
* #404 Baylor -28.5 over West Virginia 7:00 PM CT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* Stanford
2* Oklahoma

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 5 2013 7:00PM
352 Mississippi St triple-dime bet

Dave Essler | CFB Side - Saturday, Oct 5 2013 3:30PM
348 Tennessee double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

Early CFB Releases

UL Lafayette -10
Troy -3
UAB -3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25 Where the polls went wrong
by Jesse Schule

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most Underrated Top 25 Team: Oklahoma Sooners (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)

The Irish hadn't lost at South Bend since October of 2011, but it was bound to happen "Sooner" or later. The Sooners are still perfect after knocking off the Irish by a score of 35-21.

Blake Bell had a big game throwing for 232 yards and two scores and running for 59 more. Oklahoma's defense ranks sixth in the nation, allowing an average of just 12 points per game. When you look at its schedule, it would appear that the Sooners have a chance at running the table.

Most Overrated Top 25 Team: Fresno State Bulldogs (4-0 SU, 0-4 ATS)

The Bulldogs may be undefeated, but they haven't yet covered the spread, going 0-4 as favorites. Two of their wins have come by a margin of a single point and their defense has really struggled. Fresno State has allowed an average of over 38 points per game, ranking 114th in the nation.

The Bulldogs have a pretty soft schedule, so it's likely they could continue to pile up the wins. But as far as Top 25 teams go, I think they are the weakest of the bunch.

Unranked Team That Should Be Ranked: Wisconsin Badgers (3-2 SU, 4-0-1 ATS)

The Badgers got a raw deal in Arizona a few weeks ago, losing as time expired even though they should have had an attempt at a game-winning field goal. Then last week they lost 31-24 on the road in Ohio.

The good news for Wisconsin is that it only has one more ranked opponent on the schedule, when the Badgers host Northwestern in their next game. After that they play their final six games against unranked teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Line Watch: Jump on NIU now
by Bruce Marshall

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Northern Illinois Huskies at Kent State Golden Flashes (+9)

Through the first five weeks of the season, no price in games involving NIU has moved against the Huskies. If anything, numbers have tended to trend slightly in NIU’s direction, including last week at Purdue when the Huskies were modestly bet up from 3 to 4 at most Las Vegas wagering outlets.

Although there was not much reaction to the earliest posted -9 for the Huskies this Saturday at Kent State, NIU’s support base has acted more like a growing groundswell each week. Perhaps because it mostly flies under the national radar in the MAC, price adjustments in Huskies games have tended to move slowly and inexorably, rather than in the quick bursts we see associated with many other well-supported “public” sides.

After QB Jordan Lynch and the explosive offense triggered last week’s 55-24 demolition of Big Ten rep Purdue, however, expect appetite for NIU to appear a bit more quickly in the marketplace, likely pushing this price up to the next key number at 10 against the Golden Flashes.

Whether 10 acts as a resistance point or not remains to be seen.

At least by jumping on the Huskies ASAP, those NIU backers are not going to have to worry about laying a double-digit price.

This number is very unlikely to drop, so Huskies supporters might as well get their positions now while the price remains in single digits.

Spread to Wait on

Penn State Nittany Lions at Indiana Hoosiers (+3.5)

After home losses to Navy and Missouri in September, Indiana backers are laying low at the moment. So low, in fact, that they offered very little resistance when the price for this Saturday’s game versus Penn State was bet up from an opening 2.5 and right through a key number resistance point at 3 in early wagering action.

As of Monday afternoon, most Las Vegas wagering outlets were posting the Hoosiers at +3.5 or 4 for Saturday’s Big Ten clash at Bloomington.

We suspect that there is more run left in this price move toward the Nittany Lions, who have mostly offered good spread value for second-year coach Bill O’Brien; Penn State is now 11-5 its last 16 on the board.

Moreover, the marketplace will also begin to digest some of the hard-to-believe series trends that are so lopsided in the direction of the Nittany Lions, who have not lost straight up to the Hoosiers since entering the Big Ten in 1993 and have a spotless 16-0 straight up record all-time versus IU.

Don’t be surprised for this number to eventually test the next key numbers up the scale, perhaps all of the way up to the “big” 7, as buy pressure for Penn State doesn’t figure to abate anytime soon.

Later in the week, IU likely attracts some investors, but we advise Hoosier backers to sit tight for a few days to see how high this number inflates. No surprise if the Nittany Lions will be forced to lay near a full TD at sometime before kickoff, at which time we expect some IU money to materialize at the Nevada sports books.

Total to Watch

West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears

Like those who like to see how many hot dogs Joey Chestnut can devour at the annual Nathan’s Contest each 4th of July at Coney Island, there is a similar curiosity in the wagering marketplace regarding the most-extreme “totals” each week. And along with Oregon, no team generates that sort of interest like high-octane Baylor, which hosts West Virginia on Saturday.

“Totals” devotees certainly recall the Bears-Mountaineers shootout last season in Morgantown, when Geno Smith tossed a whopping 8 TD passes for WVU in its wild 70-63 win.

Geno has graduated to the NFL, and the Mounties aren’t quite spinning the scoreboards as they were the past couple of seasons, but Baylor has definitely picked up the slack as it scores better than point-per-minute in the early going this season for HC Art Briles.

Baylor’s early schedule has been mostly flown under the national radar against the likes of Wofford, Buffalo and UL-Monroe, so this is the first time we’ll get to see how the marketplace reacts to a “total” on a featured Bears game. And after scoring 69, 70, and 70 in the first three, we anticipate some “over” pressure no matter where oddsmakers post the “total” for Saturday’s game vs. WVU.

With thin markets in earlier games, “totals” on Bear games to date still moved upward 2-3 points in the first three contests. Oddsmakers are also not expected to fool around any longer with “totals” involving teams like Baylor or Oregon; the books had no hesitation posting the Ducks’ “total” vs. Cal in the low 80s last week, though the knowledge of upcoming monsoon-like conditions in Eugene prevented excessive buy pressure on the “over” for Ducks-Bears.

We’re very curious to see how the marketplace reacts to the next “total” involving Baylor...especially if weather forecasts are for a fast track in Waco.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Odds: Week 6 Opening Line Report

In one of the most entertaining games of the season thus far, the Georgia Bulldogs defeated the LSU Tigers 44-41 in a matchup of two SEC heavyweights.

The Bulldogs (3-1 SU, 1-2-1 ATS) have beaten some big names to start the season with their only blemish coming courtesy of the Clemson Tigers in the opening game of the campaign.

Coming off that massive win against LSU, the Bulldogs now must travel to Tennessee to face the Volunteers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Georgia has won straight up in three consecutive meetings with the Volunteers and both won and covered as 2.5-point faves in Knoxville back in 2011; the last meeting at Tennessee.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, sent out a line of Bulldogs -14 after he and his team were all between 13 and 17.

"Offshores have lower and we could've gone that way with Georgia RB (Todd) Gurly questionable but with him in the lineup, I like where we're at."

Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles (-17)

The Maryland Terrapins (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) have satisfied faithful backers so far during an unblemished start to the season. Maryland is one of four programs in the country that is 4-0 ATS and one of just eight squads without an ATS loss. But Korner feels they'll have their hands full with quarterback Jameis Winston and the Seminoles (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS).

"The range went from -14 to -21 and we decided in the middle with FSU -17," Korner told Covers. "Maryland has shown well of late and are competitive here. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop a little. But FSU's overall team strength in so many areas will show through here."

Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+4)

Played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas

The Irish (3-2, 0-4-1) are coming off a poor performance at home against the Oklahoma Sooners which saw them on the wrong end of a 35-21 scoreline. The Irish have been fairly abysmal both on the field and against the spread. They are one of just eight teams that have yet to cover a spread this season.

"This is in a neutral field and to tell you the truth, we don't like Notre Dame at all," said Korner. "We sent out ASU -4 but a gun to our heads we could easily go higher. Notre Dame can't stop anyone and they're facing a quality team here."

Ohio State Buckeyes at Northwestern Wildcats (+6)

The Buckeyes (5-0 SU, 3-1-1 ATS) are coming off a massive 31-24 win against Wisconsin to get their Big 10 season off to a great start. It won't get easier for them as they (along with College Gameday) go to Evanston, Illinois to face the Northwestern Wildcats (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS), who are off to a great start themselves.

"We were all around the -6 number. There wasn't much to discuss here. Big Ten clash with two good teams. I don't see this number running in either direction by kick-off."