10-12-13

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Beyond the BCS Capping College Football's Small Conferences
by Doc Sports

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to Watch: Ohio Bobcats (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS)

This week: -17 vs. Central Michigan

Ohio opened its season with a blowout loss to Louisville, but the schedule has softened and the floodgates have opened. The Bobcats are averaging 35.5 points in their last four games, including a 43-3 road rout of Akron in their Mid-American Conference opener. On the other side of the ball, they have allowed a grand total of three points in their last two contests.

Saturday’s opponent, Central Michigan, is 2-4 with a quartet of double-digit losses. The Chippewas are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records and 1-11 ATS in their last 13 road games against teams with winning home records. Ohio is 4-0 ATS in its last four overall and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home.

Team to Beware: Air Force Falcons (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS)

This week: +4 vs. San Diego State

The government shutdown didn’t stop last weekend’s game between Air Force and Navy, but the Falcons’ season can’t be shut down soon enough. They have lost five in a row to drop to 1-5, with four of their five setbacks coming by at least 18 points. Air Force is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 overall, 0-5 ATS in its last five home games, and 0-5 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. They are 0-4 ATS in their last five against San Diego State.

As for the Aztecs, they handled Air Force 28-9 last season and have returned 16 starters. They average 145.5 yards per game on the ground in 2013 and are going up against a Falcons defense that gives up 222.5 rushing yards per outing. SDSU freshman Donnel Pumphrey is averaging 7.5 yards on 44 carries.

Total Team: San Jose State Spartans (2-3 SU, 2-3 O/U)

This week: 58 at Colorado State

Since shutting out Sacramento State in its season opener, San Jose State has allowed at least 27 points in four straight contests, including 40 or more in two of its three losses. The Spartans are still without a slew of defensive players, including impact performers like safety Brandon Monroe, cornerback Bene Benwikere, and linebacker Derek Muaava. On the bright side, SJSU’s passing offense is churning out 306.8 yards per game behind senior quarterback David Fales.

The Over is 6-1 in the Spartans’ last seven road games, 5-1 in their last seven against Mountain West opposition, and 4-0 in their last four following a bye week. Colorado State also had an off week to prepare for this one. The Over is 7-2 in the Rams’ last nine following a bye week and 7-2 in their last nine against teams with losing records.

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Exposing the Top 25: Where the Polls Went Wrong

Each week throughout the college football season, Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 Team: Baylor Bears (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS)

I've said it before, and I'll make no apologies for saying it again. The Bears might just be the best team in the country. I mean, outside of Oregon, what other team could put up 70 points three weeks in a row while holding opponents to an average of 16.3 points?

This week's 73-42 thrashing of West Virginia should put the rest of the country on notice: This Baylor team is the real deal. West Virginia might not be a top 25 team, but it did upset the Oklahoma State Cowboys and its defense limited the Sooners to just 16 points in a losing effort in Oklahoma.

Most overrated Top 25 Team: South Carolina Gamecocks (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS)

The Gamecocks have not looked good, failing to cover the spread in each of their last four games. Making matters worse for the underachieving squad is that their star DE Jadeveon Clowney sat out last week with what ESPN's Tim Koen referred to as a "minor or non-existant injury."

Coach Steve Spurrier was not at all happy about Clowney's decision not to play and he's criticized his player publicly, saying "If Clowney wants to play, we will welcome him to come play for the team if he wants. But if he doesn't want to play, he doesn't have to play. Simple as that."

Unranked team that should be ranked: Auburn Tigers (4-1 SU, 4-0 SU)

The Tigers are 4-1, with their only loss coming to LSU. Last week's win over Ole Miss puts them at 2-1 in the SEC and with an easy game upcoming, you can expect to see them in the Top 25 next week. Of course, life in the SEC isn't easy. And with games against Texas A&M and Alabama still to come, the party might not last long.

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College Football Odds Week 7 Opening Line Report

With the NCAA football schedule moving along to Week 7, a new chapter in one of the game's greatest rivalries will be written.

The annual matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS) and Texas Longhorns (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) - the Red River Rivalry - will be played at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas and the Horns will look to put a stop to the Sooners' dominance in the matchup over the previous three seasons.

The Sooners are 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings and have put up a combined 118 points on the board in their past two victories.

According to Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, he and his team of oddsmakers were all on the same page when it came time to discuss this matchup.

"With Texas missing QB David Ash, they're not the same team," said Korner. "This is on the same neutral field and Oklahoma is the better team. We made the game Oklahoma -12 and had very little diversity among the five oddsmakers."

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-8)

LSU (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) suffered a tough loss to Georgia back on Sept. 28, but got back in the winning column as they trounced Mississippi State 59-26 in Week 6.

The Tigers boast one of the top offenses in the SEC and go up against a stingy Florida Gators (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) defense, which is allowing 12.2 points per game - good enough for fourth overall in the country.

Korner and his team were on a variety of numbers before settling at LSU -8.

"We were mixed on this. The range went from LSU -5.5 to -11," said Korner. "I like the LSU 'pit' they play in as an advantage. We stuck it in the middle at LSU -8 as Florida doesn't appear to be that mighty powerhouse we've seen in recent years."

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels (+7)

After a very impressive 3-0 start which generated a lot of buzz, Ole Miss (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) has dropped a pair of tough road games in the past two weeks.

Despite the back-to-back losses, Ole Miss still gets respect and faces a tough task in Week 7 with Johnny Manziel and the Aggies (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) coming to Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.

"We went from Texas A&M -5 to -8 and I sent out -7," says Korner. "You don't want to be too low with A&M's offense but Mississippi is no pushover so we didn't get too crazy."

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+16)

The Ducks (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) keep putting up basketball-like numbers and are coming off a 57-16 win at Colorado in Week 6. The Ducks are the first team to own a 5-0 record against the spread and will be another big, double-digit fave against Pac-12 foe Washington in Week 7.

The Huskies (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) put up a good fight against Stanford but ultimately lost by a field goal in California.

"We had a range from -14 to -18," Korner said. "Washington's good showing versus Stanford holds this line in check but we still sent our Oregon -16. There's no problem in rooting for Oregon if we were too high. I'll take my chances with that."

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NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, OCTOBER 12 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/9)

Game 111-112: Oklahoma vs. Texas (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 106.550; Texas 86.775 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 20; 62 Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 13 1/2; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-13 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Indiana at Michigan State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 88.455; Michigan State 100.898 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 12 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 9 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-9 1/2); Under

Game 115-116: Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 87.028; Virginia Tech 99.249 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 12; 38 Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 9; 43 Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-9); Under

Game 117-118: Miami (OH) at Massachusetts (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (OH) 62.618; Massachusetts 62.503 Dunkel Line: Even; 49 Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 3 1/2; 45 Dunkel Pick: Miami (OH) (+3 1/2); Over

Game 119-120: Boston College at Clemson (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 78.050; Clemson 112.445 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 34 1/2; 67 Vegas Line: Clemson by 24 1/2; 61 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-24 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: Buffalo at Western Michigan (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 81.296; Western Michigan 61.522 Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 20; 49 Vegas Line: Buffalo by 12; 52 Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-12); Under

Game 123-124: Central Michigan at Ohio (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 63.258; Ohio 88.168 Dunkel Line: Ohio by 25; 48 Vegas Line: Ohio by 17; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-17); Under

Game 125-126: Eastern Michigan at Army (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 66.129; Army 70.575 Dunkel Line: Army by 4 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Army by 7 1/2; 54 Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (+7 1/2); Over

Game 127-128: Virginia at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 78.259; Maryland 100.412 Dunkel Line: Maryland by 22; 40 Vegas Line: Maryland by 7; 44 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-7); Under

Game 129-130: South Florida at Connecticut (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Florida 70.894; Connecticut 71.948 Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 1; 46 Vegas Line: Connecticut by 5; 41 Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+5); Over

Game 131-132: Navy at Duke (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Navy 85.446; Duke 84.283 Dunkel Line: Navy by 1; 54 Vegas Line: Duke by 3; 57 Dunkel Pick: Navy (+3); Under

Game 133-134: Troy at Georgia State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Troy 74.179; Georgia State 53.752 Dunkel Line: Troy by 20 1/2; 68 Vegas Line: Troy by 17 1/2; 62 Dunkel Pick: Troy (-17 1/2); Over

Game 135-136: Texas A&M at Mississippi (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 108.151; Mississippi 104.755 Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 3 1/2; 71 Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 6; 75 Dunkel Pick: Mississippi (+6); Under

Game 137-138: Kent State at Ball State (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 75.234; Ball State 91.746 Dunkel Line: Ball State by 16 1/2; 66 Vegas Line: Ball State by 14; 61 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ball State (-14); Over

Game 139-140: Bowling Green at Mississippi State (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 85.929; Mississippi State 93.566 Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 7 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 10 1/2 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+10 1/2); Under

Game 141-142: Akron at Northern Illinois (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Akron 66.126; Northern Illinois 94.129 Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 28; 65 Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 22; 62 Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-22); Over

Game 143-144: Iowa State at Texas Tech (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 80.431; Texas Tech 103.825 Dunkel Line: Texas Tech by 23 1/2; 60 Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 14; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas Tech (-14); Over

Game 145-146: Rice at TX-San Antonio (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rice 84.152; TX-San Antonio 73.066 Dunkel Line: Rice by 11; 51 Vegas Line: TX-San Antonio by 2; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rice (+2); Under

Game 147-148: New Mexico at Wyoming (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 67.800; Wyoming 89.359 Dunkel Line: Wyoming by 21 1/2; 73 Vegas Line: Wyoming by 15; 68 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (-15); Over

Game 149-150: Stanford at Utah (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 110.603; Utah 97.147 Dunkel Line: Stanford by 13 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Stanford by 9; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-9); Under

Game 151-152: Georgia Tech at BYU (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 103.705; BYU 97.452 Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 6 1/2; 49 Vegas Line: BYU by 7; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+7); Under

Game 153-154: Nebraska at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 100.508; Purdue 77.188 Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 23 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Nebraska by 14; 57 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-14); Over

Game 155-156: Missouri at Georgia (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 96.732; Georgia 109.240 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 12 1/2; 67 Vegas Line: Georgia by 8; 63 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-8); Over

Game 157-158: Baylor at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 114.941; Kansas State 95.329 Dunkel Line: Baylor by 19 1/2; 69 Vegas Line: Baylor by 17; 72 Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-17); Under

Game 159-160: Florida at LSU (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Florida 102.727; LSU 107.143 Dunkel Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 43 Vegas Line: LSU by 7; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Florida (+7); Under

Game 161-162: Colorado at Arizona State (10:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 72.454; Arizona State 105.993 Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 33 1/2; 73 Vegas Line: Arizona State by 25; 66 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-25); Over

Game 163-164: Oregon at Washington (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 121.297; Washington 103.650 Dunkel Line: Oregon by 17 1/2; 71 Vegas Line: Oregon by 13 1/2; 75 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-13 1/2); Under

Game 165-166: California at UCLA (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: California 80.555; UCLA 109.916 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 29 1/2; 77 Vegas Line: UCLA by 24 1/2; 73 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-24 1/2); Over

Game 167-168: Northwestern at Wisconsin (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 94.014; Wisconsin 106.423 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 12; 63 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 10; 57 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-10); Over

Game 169-170: East Carolina at Tulane (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 94.014; Tulane 73.163 Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 21; Vegas Line: East Carolina by 10; 55 Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-10); Under

Game 171-172: South Carolina at Arkansas (12:21 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 94.609; Arkansas 91.705 Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3; 58 Vegas Line: South Carolina by 6; 51 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+6); Over

Game 173-174: Alabama at Kentucky (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 114.980; Kentucky 82.228 Dunkel Line: Alabama by 33; 48 Vegas Line: Alabama by 27 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-27 1/2); Under

Game 175-176: San Jose State at Colorado State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 81.144; Colorado State 78.509 Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 64 Vegas Line: Colorado State by 4; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Jose State (+4); Over

Game 177-178: Idaho at Arkansas State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 55.153; Arkansas State 82.891 Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 27 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 24 1/2; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-24 1/2); Under

Game 179-180: Michigan at Penn State (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 99.442; Penn State 94.417 Dunkel Line: Michigan by 5; 47 Vegas Line: Michigan by 2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (-2); Under

Game 181-182: Syracuse at North Carolina State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 94.704; North Carolina State 84.635 Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 10; 58 Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 7; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+7); Over

Game 183-184: Memphis at Houston (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 79.318; Houston 85.487 Dunkel Line: Houston by 6; 57 Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+9 1/2); Over

Game 185-186: UAB at Florida International (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UAB 67.346; Florida International 59.528 Dunkel Line: UAB by 8; 60 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 187-188: Marshall at Florida Atlantic (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 81.469; Florida Atlantic 78.390 Dunkel Line: Marshall by 3; 59 Vegas Line: Marshall by 13; 54 Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+13); Over

Game 189-190: Kansas at TCU (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 72.761; TCU 100.260 Dunkel Line: TCU by 27 1/2; 40 Vegas Line: TCU by 25; 45 Dunkel Pick: TCU (-25); Under

Game 191-192: Middle Tennessee State at North Texas (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 73.415; North Texas 82.861 Dunkel Line: North Texas by 9 1/2; 60 Vegas Line: North Texas by 7; 55 Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-7); Over

Game 193-194: UL-Monroe at Texas State (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 72.247; Texas State 76.421 Dunkel Line: Texas State by 4; 40 Vegas Line: Texas State by 7; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+7); Under

Game 195-196: Boise State at Utah State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 100.018; Utah State 90.583 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 9 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Boise State by 7; 51 12 Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-7); Under

Game 197-198: Oregon State at Washington State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 93.847; Washington State 89.687 Dunkel Line: Oregon State by 4; 66 Vegas Line: Washington State by 1; 62 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oregon State (+1); Over

Game 199-200: Tulsa at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 78.582; UTEP 65.618 Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 13; 65 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 10 1/2; 61 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulsa (-10 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: Hawaii at UNLV (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 71.067; UNLV 71.574 Dunkel Line: UNLV by 1; 52 Vegas Line: UNLV by 9 1/2; 55 Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+9 1/2); Under

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST (10/9)

Game 241-242: Western Carolina at Auburn (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 45.635; Auburn 99.072 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 53 1/2 Vegas Line: Auburn by 43 Dunkel Pick: Auburn (-43)

OTHER GAMES: Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/9)

Albany at Delaware (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Albany 37.313; Delaware 63.207 Dunkel Line: Delaware by 26

Rhode Island at New Hampshire (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Rhode Island 48.930; New Hampshire 66.180 Dunkel Line: New Hampshire by 21

Lehigh at Columbia (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Lehigh 59.029; Columbia 35.665 Dunkel Line: Lehigh by 23 1/2

Valparaiso at Mercer (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 14.962; Mercer 51.958 Dunkel Line: Mercer by 37

Monmouth at St. Francis (PA) (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Monmouth 58.953; St. Francis (PA) 45.896 Dunkel Line: Monmouth by 13

Harvard at Cornell (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 71.322; Cornell 45.262 Dunkel Line: Harvard by 26

Fordham at Georgetown (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Fordham 70.462; Georgetown 36.687 Dunkel Line: Fordham by 34

Bethune-Cookman at Howard (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Bethune-Cookman 68.268; Howard 47.790 Dunkel Line: Bethune-Cookman by 20 1/2

Dayton at Stetson (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dayton 46.580; Stetson 20.431 Dunkel Line: Dayton by 26

Lafayette at Princeton (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Lafayette 48.127; Princeton 63.007 Dunkel Line: Princeton by 15

The Citadel at Georgia Southern (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 54.430; Georgia Southern 74.552 Dunkel Line: Georgia Southern by 20

Holy Cross at Bucknell (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Holy Cross 54.447; Bucknell 40.956 Dunkel Line: Holy Cross by 13 1/2

Campbell at Butler (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Campbell 13.577; Butler 48.345 Dunkel Line: Butler by 35

Drake at Davidson (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Drake 46.912; Davidson 20.418 Dunkel Line: Drake by 26 1/2

Central Connecticut State at Sacred Heart (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Central Connecticut State 41.741; Sacred Heart 49.013 Dunkel Line: Sacred Heart by 7 1/2

Brown at Bryant (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brown 61.462; Bryant 56.622 Dunkel Line: Brown by 5

Wagner at Duquesne (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wagner 45.710; Duquesne 49.482 Dunkel Line: Duquesne by 4

[Can'tPickAWinner]

See spot. See spot bet This week's best spot bet opportunities
by Jason Logan

Lookahead Spot

For some smart kids, the Stanford Cardinal could get caught doing something very dumb this weekend. Stanford has a trip to Utah, to face the 3-2 Utes Saturday afternoon. The Cardinal, set as 8-point road favorites, are coming off a big win over Washington and have a huge meeting with UCLA in Week 8. But first, a trip to the Beehive State, which could end up being a hornet’s nest for Stanford.

Utah is coming off a tough loss to UCLA last Thursday but has had extra time to prepare for the Cardinal. The Utes have the offensive firepower to keep pace with their Pac-12 rivals and have been able to keep QB Travis Wilson relatively clean, giving up seven sacks in five games. It’s not going to be California weather in Utah this weekend, either. Temperatures will be in the low 50s – a pale comparison from the high 70s in Palo Alto.

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College Football Line Watch Patience for Kansas State Backers

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to Bet Now

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (+10) at UNLV Rebels

Early in the week, we often like to identify the spreads that made an initial and pronounced move in one direction immediately after posting on late Sunday night. Especially a situation where we believe all of the “sharp” money has already been invested (which is not always the case in the earliest line moves) on one of the sides in the game. Such as UNLV, which was quickly bet up from 6.5 to 9.5 or 10 at most Nevada wagering outlets for Saturday’s game against visiting Hawaii at Sam Boyd Stadium.

There is some beneath-the-surface enthusiasm developing for Bobby Hauck’s Rebels after their recent three-game win streak, the longest at the school in a decade.

But the masses, even in hometown Las Vegas, are likely to remain skeptical for a bit longer about the Rebs, who have teased their followers before. And it’s worth noting that “local money” in Clark County includes tens of thousands of Rainbow Warrior backers who have caused the area to be labeled as the “ninth island” of the Aloha State.

The bottom line is that we expect no further serious money surges in the Rebels’ direction, and suspect that any appetite for UNLV in the marketplace was satisfied by that original dump of sharp money, which in some establishments has pushed the price up to a key number of 10.

Beyond the sharps who moved the early number, it is still hard to identify a lot of pro-Rebel sentiment among the masses.

Since we doubt the spread moves any higher, we suggest Hawaii backers do their shopping ASAP and grab that double-digit price wherever it is available.

Especially since we would not be surprised to see some downward pressure on this number later in the week.

Spread to Wait on

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats (+17)

Projecting late-week money moves is always a bit tricky. Sometimes, however, the marketplace reacts exactly the opposite to the scenario outlined in our Hawaii-UNLV analysis above.

Those differences are usually when “public” teams are involved in the earliest money moves. Whereas only the sharps are likely to be in love with a team like UNLV, the masses can be counted on to support the higher-profile entries.

And if one team has indeed gone “public” in the first month of the 2013 season, it is Baylor.

And after a strong surge of initial money pushed the Bears up to 17 or 17.5 for Saturday’s game at Kansas State, we suspect the increasing public infatuation with Art Briles’ team creates more buy pressure on the Bears throughout the week.

Recent precedent suggests as much.

Consider last Saturday against visiting West Virginia, when the public kept buying and buying on Baylor all week, pushing the number from an initial 27.5 all of the way through a potential key number at 28 before settling at 30.5 (and in a few locales at 31) before kickoff. It is worth noting that Baylor was also bet up from -27 to -31 for its previous game vs. ULM.

Indeed, there has been no spread movement against the Bears yet this season.

Ironically, it was not long ago that K-State was such a “public” team, but the current version of Bill Snyder’s Wildcats have already lost three games and look to do no better than a minor bowl bid this season. And in this particular matchup, the masses might recall a dominating 52-24 Baylor win last season that effectively wrecked K-State’s hopes for the BCS title game.

Granted, this is the Bears’ first road game of the season, but the wagering public is a creature of habit. And since the public has been rewarded for continuing to back Baylor, and all but a few Bears tickets were cashed last Saturday, we suspect that pattern continues throughout the week.

The public can move prices as well, and we expect buy pressure on the Baylor Bears to push this number in the vicinity of three TDs.

At some point the sharps might jump back in and back the Wildcats (especially with possible “middle” scenarios), but K-State backers might as well wait until later in the week, especially since there is a chance that the Baylor infatuation pushes this spread up to the next key number.

Total to Watch

Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (54.5)

We love these sorts of style clashes, and there can be no more pronounced on-field fundamental differences in this season’s Big Ten than those between Indiana and Michigan State.

Whereas the defense-minded Spartans are so conservative on the attack end that they might as well have Charles Krauthammer as offensive coordinator, Kevin Wilson’s Indiana offense is pure video football, utilizing an uptempo spread that looks more like it belongs in Conference USA than the Big Ten.

That sort of dichotomy presents some interesting possibilities in the total which has been initially posted at 54.5 for this game at East Lansing.

We suspect that the total movement will reflect which side the public is backing; a downward drift would likely suggest more Michigan State money, while a rise upward in the total would indicate an appetite in the marketplace for the Hoosiers.

Although there was immediate buy pressure for Michigan State that quickly moved the price to 9.5, totals often wait a bit longer to react.

And considering the fascinating style contrast between these sides, this figures to also be one of the most interesting totals developments of the week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

CFB BUFFALO at W MICHIGAN
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (W MICHIGAN) after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better
50-33 over the last 10 seasons. ( 60.2% 0.0 units )

CFB BOSTON COLLEGE at CLEMSON
Play On - Favorites of 12 to 17.5 vs. the first half line (CLEMSON) excellent offensive team (>=6.2 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=6.2 YPP), after gaining 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
29-8 over the last 10 seasons. ( 78.4% 20.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Captain

2 Unit Florida Atlantic +13

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Payne Insider

Georgia/Missouri Over 63.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RAS

121 Buff -10
137 Kent +15.5
192 N Tex -5.5
146 UTSA +2.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sweetjones55
Rot #152 Brigham Young Cougars -6.5 (x2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

Oregon st. +1.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOSTON COLLEGE VS. CLEMSON
October 12, 2013 - 3:30 PM

Pick: Pinnacle @ 24 -110 Boston College
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 12 - 3:30 PM

I'm playing on BOSTON COLLEGE. I've played on the Eagles three times this season. They're 3-0 ATS in those games, the only three that they've covered. Once again, I feel that they're providing us with very fair value.
*
The Tigers are indeed a very good team, better than they were last year. They're laying a very big number here though and I believe they're in a tough scheduling spot. Off a win at Syracuse, they've got Florida State on deck - a huge game which everyone is already talking about. *Although the Tigers are saying all the right things about not looking ahead, that's a lot easier said than done.
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The Eagles continue to prove, week after week, that they're much improved from last season. Although they got to face the Tigers at home last season, they played them fairly tough losing by "only" 14. This year, while they go on the road, the Eagles are getting far more points (Last year, they were +6.5) and they're a much better team.*
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The Eagles are 6-3 ATS the last nine times that they were road underdogs of greater than 21 points. I look for them to be far more competitive than most are expecting. 9*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VIRGINIA VS. MARYLAND
October 12, 2013 - 3:30 PM

Pick: sbgglobal @ 7 -110 Virginia
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 12 - 3:30 PM

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. After going 4-0 SU/ATS through its first four games, Maryland ran into a*wall last week. In case you missed it, the Terps were destroyed by a 63-0 margin at Florida State. Many are expecting the Terps to immediately bounce back with a big win. I'm not sure it'll be so easy.
*
A 63-0 loss is a real reality check.*With a 4-0 record, the Terps were really starting to think they were good. I don't think it'll be that easy to bounce back from. Note that Maryland is just 2-9 ATS the last 11 times it was coming off a conference loss.
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Of course, bouncing back figures to be tougher for the Terps with QB C.J. Brown expected to be out.*
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While last week's*loss vs. Ball State was*admittedly not too impressive, the Cavs' other losses have come vs. the*likes of Oregon and at Pittsburgh., the latter a*game in which they allowed 14 points and less than 200*yards.*Note that the Cavs did*beat BYU, arguably a more impressive win than anything Maryland has under its belt.*
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The Cavs have had success in this rivalry in recent seasons. They lost a close one, despite an advantage in stats at Virginia last season. However, they blew out (31-13) the Terps here in 2011. They've won seven of their last 10 visits here. Overall, the road team has won four*straight*in the series. I expect at least another cover for the road team here. 9*