10-12-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BAYLOR VS. KANSAS STATE
October 12, 2013 - 3:30 PM

Pick: top bet @ 18 -110 Kansas State
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 12 - 3:30 PM

I'm playing on K-STATE. Playing against Baylor is likely going to be a little hard on the nerves for some. After all, the Bears are putting up ridiculous numbers on offense, even more so than Oregon. Three of the wins were against weak non-conference foes. But, the Bears did it again against West Virgina last week, a 73-42 win. Still, lets keep in mind that this is their first road game of the season. Also, note that West Virginia also lost 38-0 to Maryland, a team which was just beaten 63-0. So, perhaps blowing out the Mountaineers wasn't as impressive as it seems. Either way, I expect the Bears to receive by far their toughest test yet.*
*
The Wildcats figure to be highly motivated. Not only do they desperately need a conference victory, but they also haven't forgotten last year's blowout loss at Baylor. The Cats were 10-0 at the time and thinking National Title game. The loss at Baylor killed those dreams. Its fair to say that the Cats, 4-0 at home against the Bears, have had this one circled.*
*
Although its been a disappointing start to the season, K-State has not suffered any losses by greater than 10 points. Last week, they lost by just four at Oklahoma State.
*
While this is obviously an improved team, it should be noted that the Bears are just 3-6 ATS (2-7 SU) the past couple of seasons on the road, 0-3 ATS as road favorites.*
*
Its true that the Cats could be without receivers Lockett and/or Thompson. Obviously, thats not ideal when going up against such a high-powered opponent. Still,**agree with K-State's*Ryan Mueller, who said this of his team: "*…*we have a lot of talent on this team. We're a young group that's talented. We're just going to have to step it up during this week's practice*…*"
*
Including the cover at Ok. State last week, the Cats are 15-4-1 ATS their last 20 conference games, going 8-1-1 ATS their last 10 in October. They're 4-0 ATS the last four times that they were off a*conference*loss*and 10-4 ATS the last 14 times that they were getting points. That includes a 4-1 ATS mark as underdogs in the 10.5 to 21 range. I expect another cover from the revenge-minded Cats on Saturday afternoon. 9*

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges Picks of the Pole

October 11, 2013

Last week: 11-11Season: 70-71

COLLEGE

DOUBLE PLAYS: TCU -24 Kansas
Ohio -17 1/2 C. Michigan

SINGLE PLAYS:

Mississippi +6 1/2 Texas A&M
Iowa St. +14 Texas Tech
UNT -7 Middle Tenn. St.
Wisconsin -10 Northwestern
Michigan St. -9 1/2 Indiana
Virginia Tech -9 Pittsburgh
Ball St -16 Kent St.
Nebraska -14 1/2 Purdue
Washington +14 Oregon
Arkansas +6 So. Carolina
UCLA -25 Cal
Colorado--Arizona St. OVER 66 1/2

NFL

DOUBLE PLAYS: Seattle -13 1/2 Tennessee
Houston -7 St. Louis

SINGLE PLAYS

Cincy -7 1/2 Buffalo
Cincy--Buffalo UNDER 41 1/2
New Orleans +2 1/2 New England
San Diego +1 1/2 Indy
Arizona--San Fran UNDER 41
Dallas--Washington OVER 53 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet Afternoon Action

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs (-7.5, 64.5)

The Tigers, new to the SEC as of 2012, are making their first trip to Georgia after getting blown out 41-20 at home by the Bulldogs last season. The 2013 squad already matched last season’s win total and owns four rushers, including quarterback James Franklin, with at least 278 yards and an average of 5.2 yards per carry or better.

The Bulldogs can put up points with the best of them but are hurting at several key positions on offense and had three players leave last week’s game with knee injuries. The Bulldogs already played three teams ranked in the top-10 and beat two - South Carolina and LSU - but had their toughest test last week at the Volunteers, when running back Keith Marshall and wide receivers Michael Bennett and Justin Scott-Wesley were all knocked out early.

LINE: UGA opened -9.5 and moved to -7.5. Total opened 63.5 and moved to 64.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds SW 1 mph.

TRENDS:
* Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Bulldogs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 7-0 in Bulldogs last seven games overall.

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)

The Sooners won the last two games by a combined 80 points – 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last season – and Saturday’s winner will at least share the Big 12 lead. Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing offense (246 per game) and both senior running back Brennan Clay (450 yards) and junior quarterback Blake Bell (175 yards) could rack up the yards against a Texas defense that allows 248.4 per outing – 117th out of 123 FBS teams.

Texas not only has lost three straight games to No. 10 Oklahoma, but the Longhorns haven’t even been competitive in the last two meetings heading into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Longhorns have been abysmal on defense and are still reeling from the September loss of linebacker Jordan Hicks to a torn Achilles’ tendon. The poor rushing defense has been the biggest issue despite recent strong play by sophomore defensive tackle Malcom Brown.

LINE: OU opened -12.5 and moved to -13.5. Total opened 56.5 and moved to 57.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 70s, 40% chance of thunderstorms, winds S 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Sooners are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies (-8.5, 42.5)

The Panthers were off last week, providing an opportunity to devise a plan to crack a Virginia Tech defense ranked fifth nationally at 263.7 yards allowed per contest. The Panthers feature the conference’s top receiving duo in senior Devin Street (111.3 yards per game) and freshman Tyler Boyd (106.3).

Virginia Tech leads the nation in interceptions (13) and has picked off opposing quarterbacks at least two times in each of its past five games. The division-leading Hokies have won their first two conference contests and five in a row overall since losing their season opener to top-ranked Alabama.

LINE: VT opened -9.5 and moved to -8.5. Total opened 43 and moved to 42.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 60s, 25% chance of rain, winds NE 5 mph.

TRENDS:
* Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Purdue Boilermakers (+14, 57)

Huskers coach Bo Pelini has indicated that QB Taylor Martinez will step back into the starting role “when he’s ready to go”, but Tommy Armstrong Jr. has made a compelling case with two very efficient performances. The freshman from Texas is 20-for-28 for 304 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers in Martinez’s absence while also sharing time with senior Ron Kellogg III.

First-year coach Darrell Hazell named freshman Danny Etling the starting quarterback during the Boilermakers’ bye week after he came on in relief and sparked Purdue’s attack - ranked 117th nationally in total offense - with 241 yards passing and two touchdowns in just over two quarters of play against Northern Illinois. Hazell also suspended redshirt freshman receivers B.J. Knauf and Jordon Woods, who were arrested Monday on charges of theft.

LINE: Nebraska opened -13.5 and moved to -14. Total steady at 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, 40% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:
* Cornhuskers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Boilermakers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Over is 14-3-1 in Boilermakers' last 18 home games.

Iowa State Cyclones at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-14, 56.5)

Iowa State is one of four teams in the nation still perfect in the red zone while the Red Raiders are tied for third in red-zone defense, allowing two touchdowns and four field goals in 11 trips. The Cyclones have scored nine touchdowns and four field goals in 13 trips inside the 20-yard line.

Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury got good news as his No. 21 Red Raiders prepare for Saturday's visit from Iowa State. Freshman walk-on quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has thrown for 1,488 yards and eight touchdowns in five starts, won't be lost for the season after leaving last week's win at Kansas with a knee injury.

LINE: TTU moved from -16 to -14. Total steady at 56.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, clear skies, winds NE 4 mph.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Cyclones are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Red Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks (+5, 51)

While DE Jadeveon Clowney's "injury" situation clouds the defensive picture, the offense continues to roll. It has generated 2,383 yards of through the first five games, most for the program at this point of the season since at least 1962. Connor Shaw has thrown seven touchdowns without an interception and completed 17-of-20 passes against Kentucky while contributing 50 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Mike Davis had 106 rushing yards and is ranked 12th nationally with 614 this season.

Arkansas continued a season-long trend of starting fast when it gained a 7-0 lead at the Gators last Saturday, but it was dominated from that point in losing its fifth straight SEC game, a slide that dates to a loss at South Carolina last November. The Razorbacks have outscored opponents 54-24 in the first quarter but have been outscored 117-104 thereafter. Brandon Allen has competed just 34-of-77 passes and has three interceptions in his last two games since returning from a shoulder injury.

LINE: South Carolina moved from -6.5 to -5. Total steady at 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 70s, 43% chance of thundershowers, winds W 6 mph.

TRENDS:
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Gamecocks are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings.

Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-7, 48)

The Gators' offense has flourished since Tyler Murphy took over under center, as the junior's 209.4 quarterback rating against Arkansas was the highest for a Florida quarterback in an SEC game since Rex Grossman in 2001. The return of running back Matt Jones also has bolstered the offense with Jones (322 yards, 2 TDs) and Mack Brown (284 yards, 3 TDs) leading a strong ground game.

The Tigers have won five straight and 27 of 28 at home, winning their three home games this year by an average of 28.3 points. The Gators have won only once in their last four trips to Baton Rouge but they spoiled the Tigers' title hopes with a 14-6 home win last year.

LINE: LSU opened -3 and moved to -7. Total moved from 47.5 to 48.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 80s, partly cloudy skies, winds S 5 mph.

TRENDS:
* Gators are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Louisiana State.
* Gators are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Under is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings.

Northwestern Wildcats at Wisconsin Badgers (-10, 58)

The Wildcats use a two-quarterback system, seamlessly transitioning between the pass-oriented game of Trevor Siemian and the running threat provided by Kain Colter. Colter is on the verge of eclipsing 2,000 yards both passing (1,945) and rushing (1,944) in his career to go along with 676 receiving yards.

The Badgers aren’t quite the offensive and defensive juggernauts they were in years past but are still dominant on the ground, where they are averaging over 300 yards. Wisconsin RB Gordon (knee), TE Jacob Peterson and WR Kenzel Doe (hamstring) all are expected to play.

LINE: Wisconsin steady at -10. Total moved from 57 to 58.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 60s, 30% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Wisconsin.
* Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Wisconsin.

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats (+17, 74)

The Wildcats have employed two quarterbacks — Jake Waters and Daniel Sams — this season, with Sams (team-leading 323 rushing yards, four touchdowns) throwing three interceptions and losing a fumble against Oklahoma State while Waters (65.4 completion rate) has thrown four TDs and five interceptions. Kansas State leads the series 7-3 after Baylor's 52-24 victory in 2012. The teams have alternated victories in the last six meetings.

The Bears lead the country in yards per play at 9.6 with running back Lache Seastrunk (589 yards, eight touchdowns) averaging an eye-popping 11.1 yards on 53 carries. Baylor is just as powerful through the air as quarterback Bryce Petty (72.8 percent completion rate, 10 TDs, one interception) has plenty of options to choose from, including Antwan Goodley (25.7 yards per reception, five TDs) and Tevin Reese (23.6, four).

LINE: Baylor steady at -17. Total moved from 72 to 74.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, clear skies, winds N 6 mph.

TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Boston College Eagles at Clemson Tigers (-24.5, 61.5)

Clemson’s task won’t be easy against the improving Eagles and talented running back Andre Williams, who leads the nation in rushing yards per game. Williams has enjoyed a tremendous senior season with 768 yards, highlighted by 263 and five touchdowns against Army in the 48-27 victory last week. Clemson owns an 11-9-2 edge in the all-time series and has won four of the last five meetings, including 45-31 last year in Boston.

Clemson senior quarterback Tajh Boyd recorded 650 passing yards combined in wins the last two years versus Boston College and leads a Tigers’ offense that averages 44.2 points. Clemson has 19 different players on the roster with at least one reception — 11 with a touchdown — and Boyd spread the ball around to 10 receivers against the Orange. Boyd’s first look is often Sammy Watkins, who has a team-high 481 receiving yards.

LINE: Clemson moved from -24 to -24.5. Total moved steady at 61.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the high 70s, clear skies, winds NNE 1 mph.

TRENDS:
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Clemson.
* Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-7 ATS in their last seven road games.

Oregon Ducks at Washington Huskies (+14, 76)

The status of Oregon junior running back De’Anthony Thomas (ankle) remains unknown, and Thomas stated Wednesday that he needs to be 100 percent to play. Powerful Oregon has won its first five games by an average of 47.4 points and is attempting to notch its 18th straight road victory - tops in the nation.

The rise of the Huskies – particularly on the offensive side – has increased the anticipation for a renewal of the rivalry that recently has been dominated by the Ducks. Washington is averaging 37.4 points and 557 yards (fifth nationally). The Huskies have a 58.3 percent success rate on third-down conversions, tied for third-best nationally.

LINE: Oregon moved from -13.5 to -14. Total moved from 75.5 to 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 50s, 41% chance of rain, winds N 4 mph.

TRENDS:
* Ducks are 8-0-1 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Favorite is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
* Ducks are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Washington.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 Betting Cheat Sheet Evening Action

Michigan Wolverines at Penn State Nittany Lions (+2.5, 51)

The Wolverines received good news this week when linebacker Jake Ryan was medically cleared to resume play, prompting coach Brady Hoke to say he could "potentially" make an appearance against Penn State. The Wolverines had high hopes for senior running back Fitzgerald Toussaint after he rushed for 100 yards or more in four of the last six games two years ago, but he has surpassed that mark just once in his last 15 contests.

The Nittany Lions welcomed back an important part of their defense last weekend. Mike Hull, a senior linebacker, suffered a right knee injury in the season opener against Syracuse but returned to make 10 tackles versus Indiana. Allen Robinson, a 6-3, 210-pound junior wide receiver who had 12 catches for 173 yards and two scores in a 44-24 loss to Indiana last Saturday.

LINE: Michigan opened -3 and moved to -2.5 Total steady at 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures in low 60s, 31% chance of rain, winds ENE 2 mph.

TRENDS:
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Penn State.
* Wolverines are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Wolverines are 12-28 ATS in their last 40 conference games.

Akron Zips at Northern Illinois Huskies (-23.5, 62)

NIU junior Cameron Stingily, who rushed for 266 yards and two touchdowns against Kent State, will play despite a recent arrest stemming from a failure to appear in court. Jordan Lynch has gone over 1,000 yards passing and 500 yards rushing through five games, and the senior has 12 touchdowns against only four interceptions for Northern Illinois.

The Zips have lost four straight, including a near upset of then-ranked No. 11 Michigan. Sophomore quarterback Kyle Pohl has thrown an interception in all but one game this season and has been sacked 11 times. The Zips' defense has six interceptions and is tied for second-best in the MAC with 16 sacks.

LINE: NIU opened -21.5 and moved to -23.5. Total moved from 62.5 to 62.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 60s, 27% chance of early thundershowers, winds WSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Zips are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 9-0 in Zips' last nine conference games.

Stanford Cardinal at Utah Utes (+8, 55)

The Cardinal's success begins with quarterback Kevin Hogan, who is 10-0 in his career as a starter and has thrown 11 touchdowns against four interceptions this season. Stanford has a balanced offensive attack led by running back Tyler Gaffney, who has a team-leading 462 yards and six TDs.

The Utes must get more consistent play from sophomore quarterback Travis Wilson, who threw six interceptions against UCLA.Wilson's top target is Dres Anderson, who leads the team with 24 catches, 510 yards and four receiving touchdowns. Sophomore James Poole has a team-leading 330 yards on the ground while Wilson has rushed for 248 and a team-high five TDs.

LINE: Stanford opened -10 and moved to -8. Total moved from 54.5 to 55.

WEATHER: Temperatures in high 50s, 6% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.

TRENDS:
* Cardinal are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 road games.
* Utes are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
* Over is 7-3 in Utes' last 10 games overall.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats (+27, 51.5)

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has never been more accurate than in his last four games, connecting on 77.7 percent of his throws for 938 yards and nine touchdowns with two interceptions. The Tide have won 16 straight road games and nine straight overall. Alabama has held four of five opponents this season under 10 points.

The Wildcats rank third in the SEC and 24th nationally in pass defense, while their Air Raid offense is averaging 388.8 yards per game and rushing for 5.1 yards per carry. Kentucky showed its big-play ability by scoring 21 points in the fourth quarter at South Carolina, and the team already has six plays of at least 40 yards.

LINE: Alabama moved from -26.5 to -27. Total moved from 52 to 51.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, clear skies, winds SSW 1 mph.

TRENDS:
* Crimson Tide are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games.
* Wildcats are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games overall.
* Over is 3-0-1 in Crimson Tide's last four road games.

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels (+6, 76)

Texas A&M’s beleaguered defense turned in an encouraging outing against Arkansas, but the unit figures to be tested by an Ole Miss offense that averaged 38 points in its first three wins. Texas A&M has scored first in 17 of 18 games under coach Kevin Sumlin. The Aggies have used a balanced offense to score at least 40 points in each of their first five games for the first time in school history.

Junior quarterback Bo Wallace threw for a season-high 336 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions last week against Auburn, but the Rebels will need a more balanced attack in order to keep Manziel off the field. Ole Miss boasts the SEC’s No. 2 pass defense, but the Rebels’ defensive line has been hit by a wave of injuries in recent weeks.

LINE: Texas A&M opened -5.5 and move to -6. Total opened 75 and moved to 76.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s, 13% chance of rain, winds SW 1 mph.

TRENDS:
* Aggies are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Aggies' last five games overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Rebels last five home games.

California Golden Bears at UCLA Bruins (-25, 73.5)

Injuries have decimated the Golden Bears' defense, with seven projected starters missing last week’s loss. California could use a quick start after allowing a touchdown on the opposing team’s first drive in each of its first five games, forcing Goff (364.2 yards passing per game) into catch-up mode soon after the opening kickoff.

he Bruins were fairly healthy until the Utah game, when tackle Torian White suffered a season-ending right leg injury and running back Jordon James exited with an ankle injury that could force him to miss Saturday's contest. James’ absence would create more opportunities for Steven Manfro, Malcolm Jones and Paul Perkins, who rushed for 92 yards against the Utes.

LINE: UCLA opened -24 and moved to -25. Total opened 73 and moved to 73.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 60s, clear skies, winds SSW 8 mph.

TRENDS:
* Golden Bears are 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall.
* Bruins are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Underdog is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Oklahoma vs. Texas What bettors need to know

Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (+13.5, 57.5)

Texas not only has lost three straight games to No. 10 Oklahoma, but the Longhorns haven’t even been competitive in the last two meetings heading into Saturday’s Red River Rivalry game at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The Sooners won the last two games by a combined 80 points – 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last season – and Saturday’s winner will at least share the Big 12 lead. Case McCoy starts at quarterback for the Longhorns in place of the injured David Ash.

McCoy is starting for the third time this season as Ash is missing his second consecutive game due to a concussion. Oklahoma also is without a key figure in defensive standout Corey Nelson after the senior outside linebacker suffered a season-ending pectoral injury in last Saturday’s victory over Texas Christian. Despite an up-and-down season and the recent struggles against the Sooners, Longhorns coach Mack Brown is expecting a tight game. “It’s really more about us right now and getting things fixed than it is about Oklahoma’s team for us this weekend,” Brown said. “We’ve got to play better. They’ve proven they’re going to play well in this ballgame.”

TV: Noon ET, ABC.

LINE: Oklahoma opened at -13 and has moved to -14. The total has moved up from 56.5 to 57.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA (5-0, 2-0 Big 12, 3-2 ATS): Freshman Dominique Alexander steps into Nelson’s starting position and he has large shoes to fill on a unit ranked sixth nationally in scoring defense (13.0) and ninth in total defense (281.6). “He’s a big leader for us and he’s had a spectacular year,” defensive coordinator Mike Stoops said of Nelson. “His big-play ability and ability to find the football – those are things we’ll miss but other guys will have to pick up the slack and this will be a good opportunity for Dominique.” Oklahoma ranks 17th in rushing offense (246 per game) and both senior running back Brennan Clay (450 yards) and junior quarterback Blake Bell (175 yards) could rack up the yards against a Texas defense that allows 248.4 per outing – 117th out of 123 FBS teams.

ABOUT TEXAS (3-2, 2-0 Big 12, 2-3 ATS): The Longhorns have been abysmal on defense and are still reeling from the September loss of linebacker Jordan Hicks to a torn Achilles’ tendon. The poor rushing defense has been the biggest issue despite recent strong play by sophomore defensive tackle Malcom Brown (career-best 10 tackles in a win over Iowa State on Oct. 3) as Texas is giving up 28.4 points and 465.4 yards. Junior receiver Jaxon Shipley has 27 receptions – 16 of them going for first downs – and sophomore running back Johnathan Gray has rushed for 439 yards and four touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Sooners are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Longhorns are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas leads the series 59-43-5 but Oklahoma has won nine of the 14 meetings since Bob Stoops became head coach.

2. Bell has completed 69.2 percent of his passes for 835 yards and six touchdowns and hasn’t been intercepted.

3. McCoy hasn’t been picked off in 102 attempts this season and has a 60.8 completion percentage and two touchdowns.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Where The Action is Saturday's NCAAF Line Moves

Week 7 of the college football schedule has plenty of marquee matchups on the board, and bettors have had their say about those games. We talk to sportsbooks about the biggest adjustments to the Week 7 odds and where those line will end up come kickoff Saturday:

Missouri Tigers at Georgia Bulldogs – Open: -9.5, Move: -7

Some markets have trimmed this SEC spread as many as 2.5 points heading into the weekend. Georgia has a long list of injuries to deal with and sharp bettors are buying up the Tigers, however, with the spread dropping to a touchdown, money is showing up on UGA.

“On Tuesday, we got sharp bet on the dog, so moved to 9. Then another wiseguy played Missouri, so moved to 8,” says Mike Perry of Sportsbook. “So far 55 percent of the money is on Missouri.”

South Carolina Gamecocks at Arkansas Razorbacks – Open: +6, Move: +5

There’s a dark cloud hanging over South Carolina, with star defensive stopper Jadaveon Clowney at odds with head coach Steve Spurrier after missing last week with an “injury”. The Razorbacks haven’t been at their best but welcome a huge crowd for homecoming Saturday.

“Not the biggest of movers but an interesting matchup,” Aron Black of bet365. “Action is pretty split on this one. On paper and stats wise, it looks like an easy play on South Carolina. But this is a tough game to call.”

Baylor Bears at Kansas State Wildcats – Open: -17, Move -19

Baylor has been the popular choice with the public the past few weeks and has once again swayed one-sided money on its weekend game, with 93 percent of the handle on the Bears. This one could keep going up once the public has its say on Saturday.

“The Bears have been one of the top five wagered-on teams each week they have played this season and it makes sense,” says Perry. “After all, dating back to 2012, the Bears have covered 10 straight games.”

Texas A&M Aggies at Mississippi Rebels – Open: +5, Move: +6

The Aggies are always a popular play among bettors each Saturday and are coming off a bye week. Texas A&M’s defense is the biggest question mark, but the early money is banking on an improvement in Oxford.

“Should be a very entertaining game, lots of scoring expected with the weeks highest number 76 on the board,” says Black. “The action is all over the Aggies, by a fair margin, so an Ole Miss cover is what we’re looking for. Even with the 76 total, we see mainly Overs.”

Virginia Cavaliers at Maryland Terrapins – Open: -6, Move: -7.5

According to Perry, this game opened too low with oddsmakers downgrading the Terrapins following their loss to Florida State. That attracted early wiseguy action on Maryland.

“Wiseguys think the line was too low, as just a few hours after we went live, we got sharp action on the Terps,” says Perry. “About 91 percent of the money is on Maryland.”

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Todays Best Bets

5* - [155] Missouri +8 -120 vs Georgia

5* - [159] Florida +7 -120 vs LSU

5* - [164] Washington U +14 -110 vs Oregon

4* - [167] Northwestern +10 -110 vs Wisconsin

4* - [179] Michigan -135 vs Penn State

3* - [112] Texas +14 -120 vs Oklahoma

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOC SPORTS

5 Unit Play. #16/#114 Take Michigan State Spartans -9 over Indiana Hoosiers (Saturday noon ESPN 2) If QB Connor Cook plays like he did last week against a much better defense in Iowa, the Spartans should have no problem winning this game by double-digits. The Hoosiers have made strides on offense, but they still have a terrible defense. This will be by far the toughest defense Indiana has seen this season, and I do not expect them to have much success moving the football on the Spartans, especially on the road. Indiana is coming off an impressive victory against Penn State last week, but all that really did was keep this line four points shorter than what it should be. Michigan State allows just more than 13 points per game. Michigan State is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games played during the month of October. Indiana is 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a victory in their previous game. That tells you that the Hoosiers do not handle prosperity well.

5 Unit Play. #86/#160 Take LSU Tigers -6.5 over Florida Gators (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS)
Top College Game of the Week.
This is a matchup of teams that will likely finish close to the top of their respective divisions but will likely not win them. LSU has made great strides on offense under new OC Cam Cameron, scoring more than 45 points per game. Florida is without their starting quarterback in Jeff Driskel, but one must remember that they also lost DE Dominique Easley. I fully expect QB Zach Mettenberger to pick this team apart. LSU does not have the same defense as they did in past years. However, Florida just does not have the offensive firepower to match points with LSU. There is no reason that Florida should not be undefeated at this point since their schedule was super easy thus far, but they lost to Miami and really have not dominated in any game that they played this season. Florida is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a winning record. LSU is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a victory of more than 20 points in their previous game. Take the home chalk in this affair.

4 Unit Play. #102/#166 Take UCLA Bruins -24.5 over California Golden Bears (Saturday 10:30 pm ESPN 2) The Bruins have been dominant this season, scoring 48 points per game, and that will allow them to cover this big number tonight against Cal. UCLA has played just two home games this season, and they have won them both by an average of 42 points per game. The Bears have a new coaching staff, and their defense has suffered under this new regime in giving up 45 points per game (125th in the Nation). Cal is 3-15 ATS in their last 18 games overall. UCLA is 5-2 ATS in their last seven PAC-12 games. I usually do not like to lay this many points in a conference game. However, this is a battle of David vs. Goliath.

4 Unit Play. #60/#170 Take Tulane Green Wave +10 over East Carolina Pirates (Saturday 3:30 pm) This play presents great value with a home underdog. The Green Wave are a much better team playing inside the dome, and they have covered six of their nine meetings with East Carolina. The home team has covered the spread in the last four meetings, and we expect that to be the case again on Saturday. Tulane has a famous name as their quarterback in Nick Montana. He has already thrown for 10 touchdowns on the season, and I expect him to have a monster game on Saturday. Both teams allow around 25 points per game, and thus getting around double-digits it too good to pass up. East Carolina is 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Tulane is 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.

4 Unit Play. #48/#176 Take Colorado State Rams -3 over San Jose State Spartans (Saturday 3:30 pm CBS Sports Network) I truly believe that the Rams are starting to figure things out, and I expect them to win their second straight game at home against an inferior opponent. The Spartans have a new coach, and they move into a much better conference, the MWC, compared to the now-defunct WAC. They still have talent on offense, but this will be their second straight road game after playing Hawaii last week (jet lag). Colorado State is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games after accumulating 200 or more yards rushing in their previous game. The Spartans have already played four road games this season, and that eventually catches up with teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROBERT FERRINGO

SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

6-Unit Play. Take #195 Boise State (-6.5) over Utah State (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
It is almost lazy handicapping to simply bet against a team because of a key injury. The books are all over the injuries. And they adjust the lines accordingly. And in this instance I think the books adjust the line too much, moving it around 10 points because Utah State lost starting quarterback Chuckie Keaton. But here is the thing: they moved it 10 points for one player, but they still didn't put the game out of range. Even with Keaton I would've been looking hard at Boise State. Chris Peterson's system is second to none on the West Coast. This team does not lose. They are an amazing 74-5 since the start of the 2006 season and 108-8 over the last 10 years. That is incredible. And with the spread in this range it means that Utah State will likely have to beat Boise State in order to make this number stick. I don't see this being a one-score game. Either Utah State comes out and plays the game of its life and upsets the Broncos (highly unlikely) or Boise State comes in and makes its presence known with a convincing conference win (most likely).

Few players in the country were as important to their team as Chuckie Keaton. For my money, the USU quarterback was the most underrated player in college football. He was the steady hand leading what is an extremely inexperienced Utah State group of skill players. His replacement is overmatched sophomore Craig Harrison. Harrison threw all of nine pases last year. When thrust into action last week against BYU he went just 18-for-41 and averaged less than five yards per attempt.

Utah State is now just a team that is punching out of its weight class, and trying to do so with a rookie coach and rookie quarterback. The Aggies were able to maul a bunch of terrible WAC teams last year. But Boise State ain't that. Utah State is playing its seventh straight game and they have had an emotional few weeks, playing at USC and then last week getting rolled by in-state big brother BYU. Boise State has had two weeks to prepare and they are battle-tested by road games at Washington and at Fresno State. I think Boise will take down this stunned Utah State team and win this one somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-16.

2-Unit Play. Take #169 East Carolina (-9) over Tulane (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
I am still not buying Tulane at all. This team was outgained by 130 yards by North Texas last week and used a blocked FG return for a TD and an INT returned for a TD to barely get a three-point win. That was as flukey as flukey gets. Tulane may be a better team than we're used to seeing. Well, congrats - that just means they are a little less pathetic than the program that has gone 13-48 over the last five years. Tulane has played a bunch of bad teams and cobbled together some wins. But East Carolina is no joke. They nearly took down Virginia Tech and they absolutely rolled North Carolina on the road two weeks ago. Like North Texas, ECU has a potent passing attack. Only about 20 times better. If ECU gets up early then this one will get ugly. I don't think it gets to that point. But I also don't see Tulane keeping this one within two touchdowns. Time for the Green Wave to come back to reality.

2-Unit Play. Take #164 Washington (+14) over Oregon (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
Note: This plays is from the KING System.
I know that you have to be crazy to bet against Oregon right now. But I just have a feeling that Washington is going to come to play and that they will be able to put a little bit of a scare into the Ducks in this game. I bet on Washington two years ago when they were hosting Oregon and we got screwed in that game, as the Ducks won by 17 (against a 16.5-point line) in a game that Washington played them even. Well, I think the Huskies can get it right this time. This is a rivalry series. And Oregon is on a 9-0 SU and ATS run in this series. That is just a statistical anomaly. I cannot see the Ducks winning AND covering 10 straight games against their nemesis, and I think that this one will be competitive from start to finish. Oregon is banged up in some key spots and Washington proved that it can play with the big boys by hammering Boise State in the opener and by playing Stanford tight last week. Washington is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games and I think that Keith Price can keep the pedal to the metal in this one. I will take the points and look for this to be a potentially huge upset here.

2-Unit Play. Take #168 Wisconsin (-10) over Northwestern (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
Note: This plays is from the KING System.
This is really just a killer letdown situation for Northwestern. They played Ohio State to the bone last week with College Game Day on campus, but let that game (and the cover) get away late due to a fluke late touchdown. Now they have to drag themselves on the road to take on a Wisconsin team that has had two weeks off to prepare. Wisconsin also played Ohio State tough, but that game was on the road and they actually outgained the Buckeyes. Wisconsin won 70-23 the last time that Northwestern came to town. Northwestern has played against some pathetic teams this year, beating Cal, Syracuse, Western Michigan and Maine. And they were only so impressive doing it. The Badgers need something good to happen. And the spread is this large for a reason. Wisconsin has dominated opponents at home, outgaining foes by 366, 493 and 386 yards. It shouldn't get too ugly here in Madison. But this one should be all Badgers.

2-Unit Play. Take #136 Mississippi (+6) over Texas A&M (8:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
Note: This plays is from the KING System.
The numbers tell me that Ole Miss could pull the upset in this one. A&M's defense is atrocious. So it is difficult for them to lay points on the road and still cover spread. Mississippi almost beat A&M last year in Oxford, losing by just three points. This is a better Ole Miss team and a worse A&M squad, and the Aggies aren't sneaking up on anyone any more. Mississippi has played three straight brutal road games, at Texas (win), at Alabama (loss) and at Auburn (loss). They are glad to be home. A&M has played a really weak schedule, and they haven't been all that impressive while going through it. They are ranked No. 9 in the country, but yet they are not even laying a touchdown on the road against a supposed middling team in the SEC? Everyone is going to throw their money behind Johnny Football. But I think that Ole Miss can win this game outright so I'll hop on the points and look for this one to be a shootout.

2-Unit Play. Take #155 Missouri (+8) over Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 12)
I was the only handicapper in the country banging the drum for Missouri this preseason, and I predicted that they would be on a mission in the SEC this year. This is a really good Tigers program. But injuries and a brutal schedule really sunk them last year. Now they are lighting people up, as they did last week against Vanderbilt. The Tigers are averaging just under 50 points per game and they should be able to move the ball at will against a really suspect Georgia defense. On top of that, the Bulldogs are just decimated on the offensive side of the ball. They will be without arguably their four best non-quarterback skill position players this week. Georgia struggled with a bad Tennessee team last week and I don't know how seriously they are taking the Tigers. Missouri actually had a lead late in the third quarter last year against the Bulldogs before things unraveled. This is a much better Mizzou team and a worse Georgia one. I think that UGA is on upset alert in this game and I will take the points and look for another high scoring, back-and-forth game.

2-Unit Play. Take #160 LSU (-6.5) over Florida (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)
I really like this Florida team now that loser Jeff Driskel is out for the year. Did it never occur to anyone that maybe the Gators offense stunk because Driskel was terrible? That said, I still don't know that the Gators are up for a shootout. And they are taking on an LSU team that hasn't been held below 35 points this year. They haven't played a defense as strong as Florida's. But LSU has taken on some good teams this year and they have lit them up. LSU is just a bunch of animals at home. And this is by far the most hostile environment that Florida has played in over the past two years. LSU has revenge for a tough loss last year and I think that they get it.

2-Unit Play. Take #173 Alabama (-26.5) over Kentucky (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take #202 UNLV (-9) over Hawaii (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take #171 South Carolina (-6) over Arkansas (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take #176 Colorado State (-3) over San Jose State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take #179 Michigan (-2.5) over Penn State (5 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 64.0 - Missouri at Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 12)
Note: This plays is from the KING System.

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 60.5 - Boston College at Clemson (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 53.0 - Georgia Tech at BYU (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 12)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

College Plays:

3-Unit Play. #115 Take Pittsburgh (+9) over Virginia Tech (12 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
Considering this is not a particularly strong season for the Hokies, I don't agree with the number of points they are laying. Pitt has started the season 3-1, and crazy enough, the Panthers have dominated this series in recent years. Pittsburgh have won each of the last four meetings and have gone 6-0 ATS in the six contests vs. VT. I don't think the Hokies are ten points better, even at home. I think oddsmakers might be stuck on the Virginia Tech over the last five to ten years as opposed to the current squad which isn't as talented. Give me the points and the Panthers in this match-up.

3-Unit Play. #167 Take Northwestern (+10) over Wisconsin (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
Let me get this straight: Northwestern battled Ohio State as tough as anyone has since Urban Meyer arrived in Columbus and was in position to win the game late in the fourth quarter but just came up short. That would have been the only defeat for the Buckeyes under their new head coach. Now the Wildcats are all of a sudden a 10-point underdog to a 3-2 mediocre Wisconsin team? That is what we call an overreaction, and a fairly extreme one I might add. And yes, this game has letdown written all over it on paper. However Northwestern is coached too well by Pat Fitzgerald to not show up in a game that still means so much to this team still trying to re-establish itself in the general college football landscape. For all the above reasons, I'm onboard with Northwestern.

3-Unit Play. #170 Take Tulane (+10) over East Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
Here is another big underdog I really like to make some noise, and with Tulane hosting the Pirates I definitely want the number in this one. The home team has won four of the last six meetings and seven of the last ten when these two have gotten together. Perhaps ECU is a bit stronger of a team this year but not enough to warrant this kind of number on the road. Dating back to last season East Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. I don't see them being worthy as such a heavy favorite, especially like I said as a team playing away from home. Tulane have gone 3-1 both SU and ATS in their last four coming into this game and I think they do a good job of holding serve at home for the most part and do well to stay inside this number.

3-Unit Play. #176 Take Colorado State (-4) over San Jose State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
The Rams have been an early season cash cow for backers with their 4-1 ATS mark through the first six weeks of the season. I think they let loose and really stick it to the Spartans at home here. San Jose State is allowing an average of 36 points per game over their last four games, and that's not going to be good enough against CSU in Fort Collins on Saturday. After failing to cover in the season opener against in-state rivals CU, the Rams have covered four straight games and I think this one here is number five in a row. They are the better team for my money and I think a victory is at least twice the spread. Lay the modest number with Colorado State in this one.

3-Unit Play. Take Stanford/Utah - 'Over' 54 (6 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
Stanford have scored 30 points or more in every game this season, and I do not see Utah slowly them down one bit. If anything, I think the offensive efficiency of Stanford is going to force the Utes to play catch up in a high scoring game in Salt Lake City. The 'over' is 4-0 in each of the last four Cardinal games overall as well as 5-0 in each of Stanford's last five Pac-12 contests. For Utah, the 'over' has hit seven of the last nine times they have played at home. I think Stanford takes care of business, winning 45-23.

3-Unit Play. Take Georgia Tech/BYU - 'Over' 53.5 (7 p.m., Saturday, October 12)
With Georgia Tech running the ball a lot, perhaps oddsmakers lowered the number because of that. But Paul Johnson's option attack has shown the ability to break big runs and produce playmaking scores since he started coaching in Atlanta. Along with BYU, the goal will be eclipsed here. The Cougars have scored 30 points or more in three of their last four games. Even in a loss last week, Georgia Tech put up 30 points in Miami on the Hurricanes defense, so I think that translates to a similar number here against Brigham Young. I definitely see this being a competitive, back-and-forth game between these two and the result will be the winner with 30 or more and the loser just behind them. Play the 'over' between these two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chad Matthews

5-Unit Play. #128 Maryland Terrapins -7 over the Virginia Cavaliers (Oct 12 @ 3:30pmET)
The Virginia Cavaliers and the Maryland Terrapins square off at Byrd Stadium in Maryland in what I expect to be a bounce back game for the Terrapins. Last weekend the Terps got routed 63-0 against #8 ranked Florida State suffering their first loss of the season. Maryland has been friendly to bettors cashing in a 4-1 record this year against the spread. The Cavaliers have only played one road game all season long with their only quality win of the season coming in week one against BYU at home. The Terrapins are on a completely different level than Virginia and with the home field advantage I do not see Virginia being able to keep up. Expect the Terrapins to bounce back and easily cover. Take the Terps and lay the points at -7

4-Unit Play. #157 Baylor Bears -17 over the Kansas State Wildcats (Oct 12 @ 3:30pmET)
The #1 ranked passing offense, The #2 ranked in rushing yards, The 1st in points scored per game and the 14th ranked in the nation defense to top it. We all have learned to love the Baylor Bears this year as they have taken Vegas every week this season going a perfect 4-0 against the spread. This weekends matchup will be the Bears first road game of the season as they head to Bill Snyder Stadium to go up against the Kansas State Wildcats. Last weekend the Wildcats almost knocked off a tough Oklahoma State team on the road so I believe the Wildcats have some momentum heading back home despite suffering the loss. However I can't go against perfection here and that is the Baylor Bears. The Bears are beating their opponents this season by an average of 54 points per game and their offense is so powerful with a stingy defense to back it how could we expect any different of an outcome. Take the Bears and lay the chalk at -17.

3-Unit Play. #135 Texas A&M Aggies -5.5 over the Ole Miss Rebels (Oct 12 @ 8:30pmET)
Johnny football and the Texas A&M Aggies head to Ole Miss to take on the sputtering Rebels. The Rebels came out with a great 3-0 start until losing their last two games to Alabama and Auburn. The Aggies this year are ranked 4th in the league in total points and ranked 6th in passing yards. This does not set well for a Rebels team that will need to try to keep up on offense. The Aggies have won the past six matchups between these two teams and with this line set less than a touchdown I would hate to pass this one up. This game might be close at halftime but expect Johnny Manziel and the potent Aggies offense to break away late in the second half. Take the Aggies and lay the -5.5 points here

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast
Big dogs

Texas
Mississippi
Kansas State
Hawaii
Washington
Tulane
Arkansas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

2* Penn St +2.5

2* Mississippi +6

2* Washington St -2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole

2* Missouri +7½

2* Arkansas +6

1* Florida +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sports

3 Units Ohio -18