10-14-13

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1114-836 (57% +)over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner MON: Wash Capitals

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Gamblers Data

Free Plays Monday

Minnesota Wild -130

Clippers

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Tale of the Tape: Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers

The Indianapolis Colts look to improve to 5-1 as they face the host San Diego Chargers in the Monday nighter. The Colts are led by second-year quarterback Andrew Luck, who has orchestrated one of the league's top offenses through the first five games. He'll be in tough against a Chargers roster that has racked up the passing yards but struggled with turnovers in last week's 27-17 loss to the Oakland Raiders.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Luck may not have the same quarterback prowess as Peyton Manning, the guy he replaced in Indianapolis, but the 24-year-old signal caller has been impressive in his own right. The Colts average a respectable 362.4 passing yards per game, with seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. The rush offense is even more impressive relative to the rest of the league, averaging 142 yards per contest - the fourth-highest mark coming into Week 6 action.

The Chargers have punished opposing defenses with a pass attack that is averaging better than 311 yards per game. Quarterback Philip Rivers threw for 411 yards last weekend against the Raiders - his third 400-yard game of the season - but also had three interceptions that essentially handed the Raiders the win. The San Diego rushing game has been decidedly less potent, averaging just 91.2 yards per game with two touchdowns through five games.

Edge: Indianapolis

Defense

The Colts have been stingy when it comes to pass defense, surrendering just 201 yards per game in the air. Indianapolis has allowed only four passing touchdowns through five games while haranguing opposing quarterbacks into throwing seven interceptions. That success hasn't extended to the run defense, as Indianapolis is allowing 129 yards per contest - one of the worst marks in the league - and a whopping 4.8 yards per rush attempt.

San Diego has struggled so far this season mostly due to a pass defense that has been hemorrhaging yards. The Chargers are allowing opposing QBs to rack up 289 yards per game and complete nearly 70 percent of their pass attempts. San Diego is below average in run defense - giving up more than 117 yards per game and an average of 4.9 yards per carry - but has limited the opposition to just two rushing touchdowns.

Edge: Indianapolis

Special Teams

The Colts possess a top-10 kick-return unit, averaging 25.7 yards per attempt despite a long run of just 28 yards. Indianapolis is in the middle of the pack when it comes to punt returns, averaging 7.4 per attempt. Colts placekicker Adam Vinatieri has connected on nine of 11 field-goal attempts while making good on all 14 of his extra point kicks. Vinatieri was 2-for-2 on field goals in last week's 34-28 victory over the Seattle Seahawks.

San Diego ranks just behind Indianapolis in kick-return offense at 24.4 yards per attempt, but with a long return of 42 yards. The Chargers have just seven punt returns through five weeks, and are averaging 7.1 yards on those returns. Veteran Chargers placekicker Nick Novak has made nine of 11 field-goal kicks while making all 14 of his extra-point attempts. Novak went 1-for-2 against the the Raiders.

Edge: Indianapolis

Notable Quotable

"Philip goes to him because that's his guy and he trusts him and he's been working with him 10 years. You (have) to make sure somebody's on him, trying to bang the crap out of him so he doesn't have a free release up the field. He has great moves in space." - Indianapolis defensive coordinator Greg Manusky on Chargers tight end Antonio Gates

"Andrew's playing out of his mind, really. It's going to be tough, but we like our matchups. Coming off the way we did against Oakland, it'll be good going against a team like this because we have no room for error." - San Diego safety Eric Weddle

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Winning Angle Sports

Colts -1.5

Dodgers +105

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Double Dragon Sports

6 Units Colts PK -120

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Colts aim for 4th straight win Monday in San Diego
by Zach Cohen

Kickoff: Monday, 8:40 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -1.5, Total: 50

The Colts look to improve to 5-1 while the host Chargers try to get back to .500 when these teams play on Monday night.

Indianapolis has won three straight games, with its most recent one being a comeback home victory last week over the Seahawks, 34-28. San Diego really struggled in Week 5, turning the ball over five times in a 27-17 loss to the Raiders. The last time these two teams played was in 2010 where the Chargers rolled to a 36-14 road victory, making them 12-4 ATS versus Indianapolis since 1992 and 6-1 ATS (5-2 SU) in their past seven meetings with the Colts. San Diego is 2-0 ATS so far this season at home, and since 1992, the team is an outstanding 21-3 ATS against AFC South opponents. However, Indy is 15-3 ATS in road games after scoring 25 points or more in three straight games over that same period. Indianapolis is also 11-3 ATS after the first month of the season over the past two years. Chargers RB Ryan Mathews has been upgraded to probable for the game after suffering a concussion against the Raiders, while Colts S LaRon Landry (ankle) is also questionable for the game Monday.

The Colts started last week against the Seahawks in a 12-0 hole and were down five going into the fourth quarter, but still came away with a 34-28 victory behind 229 passing yards and two touchdowns from QB Andrew Luck. He has thrown for 1,144 yards with seven touchdowns and just two interceptions so far this season. WR T.Y. Hilton led the team in receiving with 140 yards and two long touchdowns last week, scoring from 73 yards out and 29 yards out. RB Trent Richardson rushed for 56 yards (3.1 YPC) while Donald Brown was more effective with 37 yards and a touchdown on six carries (6.2 YPC) against Seattle. Despite Richardson’s lack of eye-popping numbers since his trade from Cleveland (151 yards, 3.0 YPC in three games), the Colts are still the NFL’s fourth best rushing team with 142 yards per game and rank fifth in the league with 4.7 yards per carry. They will, however, miss Ahmad Bradshaw (186 rush yards, 4.5 YPC, 2 TD) who was recently placed on injured reserve with a neck injury. Indy's offense was expected to thrive, but its defense has been quite the story this season, allowing just 15.8 PPG (5th in NFL) and 201 passing YPG (6th in league). The secondary will need to keep this up against the high-powered passing attack of Philip Rivers and the Chargers. Although the Colts have done a nice job stopping the pass, they are one of the league's worst against the run, allowing 129 rushing YPG (30th in NFL) and 4.8 YPC (6th-worst in league). Fortunately for their run defense, the Colts are playing against a San Diego team that averages just 91.2 rushing YPG (21st in NFL) and will likely be missing its top rusher, Ryan Mathews. The Colts have done a great job forcing turnovers this season with 10 takeaways, and they have also put great pressure on opposing quarterbacks with 15 sacks, including a league-best 9.5 sacks by LB Robert Mathis.

Chargers QB Philip Rivers entered last week with just 2 INT in four games, but wound up throwing three picks in the loss in Oakland. Rivers did, however, throw for two touchdowns and 411 yards, marking the third time in four games that he has eclipsed 400 passing yards. San Diego is averaging 311.2 YPG through the air (5th in NFL) and it will need to remain efficient in that category against a good Colts secondary. The Chargers' ground game was horrible last week, gaining just 32 yards on 19 rushing attempts, and if Mathews is limited in any way, they will turn to Danny Woodhead (3.8 YPC) and Ronnie Brown (3.1 YPC) to carry the load. Star TE Antonio Gates is going to play a big role on Monday as he leads the team with 32 receptions and 438 yards while adding two touchdowns this season. Rookie WR Keenan Allen has also emerged as the Chargers top receiver in recent weeks as he now has 11 receptions for 195 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. San Diego is going to have to be much better defensively as it is surrendering a league-worst 6.5 yards per play and 288.8 YPG through the air (6th-worst in NFL). Andrew Luck will pick them apart if they don’t do some adjusting. The Chargers have also struggled to stop the run, allowing 4.9 YPC (5th-worst in NFL) and 117.2 YPG on the ground (24th in NFL). That number is likely not going to get better with LB Dwight Freeney on injured reserve and LB Jarret Johnson questionable with a hamstring injury.

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Mike O'Connor

SAN DIEGO (+1.5) 30 Indianapolis 23

The Colts come off of a big 34-28 home win against previously undefeated Seattle in a game where they blocked a field goal and returned it for a touchdown and made some big plays including 73 and 29 yard TD passes from Andrew Luck. However, they did lose the overall stat battle with 319 yards at 5.5 YPPL to 423 yards and 6.3 YPPL for the Seahawks. Seattle was in a tough spot, playing in their 2nd consecutive 10AM start time game and with a really banged up offensive line missing multiple starters. Overall on the season the Colts have been good on offense with a balanced attack and below average defensively. The Chargers come into this game off of a late Sunday night 17-27 loss against division rival Oakland where they were -5 in turnover differential. Season numbers show the Chargers with an above average offense driven by the play of Philip Rivers and a poor defense, especially versus the pass. I have situations going both ways here with the stronger situations favoring the Chargers. My model likes San Diego here by 5.1 points not accounting for situations and the Colts might be in a let down spot off the big home win and with a Sunday night home contest against the Broncos on deck. I like the Chargers.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

MLB ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
Play Against - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) after allowing 2 runs or less 2 straight games against opponent after getting shut out
145-83 since 1997. ( 63.6% 54.6 units )
8-7 this year. ( 53.3% 0.5 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends™ - FoxSheets

MLB ST LOUIS at LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 38-15 (+18.8 Units) against the money line with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 15 games this season.
The average score was: LA DODGERS (4.4) , OPPONENT (2.8)

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL MINNESOTA at BUFFALO
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (MINNESOTA) a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
39-18 since 1997. ( 68.4% 28.4 units )

NHL MINNESOTA at BUFFALO
Play Against - Road Favorites of -200 or less against the money line (MINNESOTA) a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
38-17 since 1997. ( 69.1% 27.2 units )

NHL MINNESOTA at BUFFALO
Play Against - Road Favorites against the money line (MINNESOTA) tired team - when playing their 3rd game in 5 days, a bad team (30% to 40%) playing against a terrible team (<=30%) in the first half of the season
21-7 since 1997. ( 75.0% 20.0 units )

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Paul Leiner

100* Dodgers even

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Bankroll Sports

2* Cardinals/Dodgers Over 6.5 +100

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Cappers Access

Chargers +1

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bookiemonsters
160-110-3 run
36-27-4 run last 67 plays

POD cardinals game under 6.5

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pick Chargers + 2

Gold Key Cards w/ Wainwright

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Diamond Dog Sports

Chargers