10-14-13

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Where the action is: Public backing Colts in MNF matchup

Week 6 in the NFL schedule comes to a conclusion with the San Diego Chargers welcoming the Indianapolis Colts to southern California. We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this Week 6 finale:

Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers - Open: +1, Move: +2.5

The majority of sportsbooks opened this line anywhere from a Pick to the Colts as 1.5-point road favorites. The betting public has backed the Colts from the get-go and action has not slowed down.

According to Michael Stewart of Carbonsports.ag, nearly 90 percent of action had been on the Colts, moving the number to Colts -2.5.

"We opened the Colts -1 and it didn't take long for our betters to jump on the road favorite and push our number to Colts -1.5," Stewart told Covers. "On Thursday morning, with nearly 90 percent of all the early action on the Colts, we went to -2.5 and we've been dealing that number ever since."

Since going to that number, Stewart says they've started to see sharps back the home dog.

"I could see us going back down to Colts -2 as we've seen significant sharp action on the Chargers +2.5," Stewart confirms. "This is a game where the sharps are against the public."

The total opened at 49 and after seeing immediate sharp action on the Over, the number moved to 49.5 and had been rising steadily before sharp action on Under 51 dropped it to 50.5.

"We saw significant sharp action Under 51 and went to 50.5, respecting the sharp Under action," says Stewart. "But we've been hammered with over 50.5 money and had to go back to 51 this morning as our liability on the over is rather significant."

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Seabass Report for Monday:
300 San Diego
100 OVER San Diego
50 Dodgers

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Sports bank
400 san diego

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SPORTS UNLIMITED
over

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MILLIONAIRES
pass

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Ben Burns MNF = SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I successfully played against the Chargers last week. However, that was on the road and they were laying a handful of points. That's not the case here. They're at home and aren't being asked to win by any extra margin. I feel that they're providing us with fair value.

Give the Colts credit for a big win over the Seahawks last week. However, that was at home. Now, they're out West, thousands of miles away. They've also got a Sunday night showdown vs. Peyton Manning, their former leader, on deck. If there's ever a game to get caught looking ahead to, that figures to be it. (*The Chargers have Jacksonville on deck, so no reason for them to look ahead.) The Colts could easily be caught patting themselves on the back a little, too.

Note that this is the Colts third road game in the past four weeks - the second time that they've had to come out West, during that span.

The Chargers did lose at Oakland last week. However, they had a 423-299 edge in total yards. On the other hand, the Colts were out gained by more than 100 yards in their win.

The Chargers, who have had remarkable success vs. AFC South teams over the years, are 8-2 SU/ATS the last 10 times that they played a home game with an O/U line of greater than 49. I look for home field to prove significant, the Chargers emerging victorious. 10*

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Dave Cokin:

Chargers +1

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OC Doole:“1 UNIT” NATIONAL LEAGUE CHAMPIONSHIP SERIES SIDE (Cardinals -120 at Dodgers in an 8:07 eastern start on TBS--------Wainwright versus Ryu): One can argue that St. Louis rookie pitcher Joe Kelly should already be named MVP of this series as it was back in game-one when he nailed Dodgers slugger Hanley Ramirez in the side which eventually led to a diagnosis of a broken rib. While Ramirez WILL be in tonight’s starting lineup he is far from 100% which is arguably a fatal blow to a Los Angeles contingent that has had to deal with a myriad of injuries this season including star outfielder Matt Kemp. Most reading this analysis remember when the Dodgers were 12 games below the .500 mark and sitting in the National League West division cellar before the team went on an epic 42-8 tear. That memorable fifty-game run coincided with the major league callup of fiery rookie Yasiel Puig and the return to health of shortstop Hanley Ramirez. With Ramirez impaired all the pressure has fallen on the shoulders of a rookie and Puig has responded going 0-for-10 in the NLCS while being struck out six different times. One of the reasons why St. Louis ended up with the best overall regular season record in the National League had to do with “clutch” hitting as the team led all of baseball with runners-in-scoring position. While a very deep St. Louis roster has literally “out lasted” Los Angeles in the initial two games of this series the exact opposite has been true of a Dodgers offense that is 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position. For the entire season to date when facing an “inpatient” offense whose hitters draw “three or less” walks per game, the ace of the St. Louis rotation Adam Wainwright has gone a spectacular “17-4”. In addition Wainwright is UNDEFEATED ON THE ROAD this campaign (8-0) when off consecutive assignments where he issued “one or less” walks each time