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RAS
358 n tx under 55
370 buff under 47
387 nev over 67
395 over unlv 72
358 n tx under 55
370 buff under 47
387 nev over 67
395 over unlv 72
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Factsman Saturday
Clemson +3Comment
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Dwayne Bryant
3* south alabama
2* Arizona st
2* vandy (not advertised)Comment
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Today's CFL Picks
SATURDAY, OCTOBER 19
Time Posted: 7:00 p.m. EST (10/17)Game 493-494: Toronto at Winnipeg (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 118.728; Winnipeg 101.064
Dunkel Line: Toronto by 17 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Toronto by 6; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-6); UnderGame 495-496: BC at Saskatchewan (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BC 112.214; Saskatchewan 119.091
Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 7; 47
Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-4); UnderComment
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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER
FLORIDA ST. (323) AT CLEMSON (324)
Latest Line: Clemson +3; Total: 63.5
Florida State won a wild one in Tallahassee when these teams met last year. The Seminoles gained 667 yards of offense in a 49-37 victory, but failed to cover against Clemson for the fourth straight year. This one should have plenty of fireworks. FSU, coming off a bye, gained 614 yards of offense in a 63-0 victory over Maryland in its last game. Clemson QB Tajh Boyd is averaging 11.58 YPA over his last three games. Both teams enter on seven-game SU winning streaks. The Noles have covered in five of their last six.
FORECASTER: Florida St. 32, Clemson 22Comment
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CFL
Week 17
Toronto (9-6) @ Winnipeg (3-12)—Argos got Ray back at QB last week but lost to Hamilton for second week in row; they’ve actually played better on road, winning six of last seven on foreign soil, while losing last three at home. Toronto is 4-4 in last eight games, despite trailing all eight at the half; they won 35-19 (-3.5) at Winnipeg in first meeting of year back in Week 4, game they led 21-6 at half- Argos are 5-1 in last six series games, winning last three visits to Manitoba by 5-19-16 points. Bombers upset Alouettes in Montreal last week as 11-point dogs; they’ve still given up 38.3 ppg in last four games, but they were +3 in turnovers at Montreal, after being -12 in previous six games. Five of last seven series games went over the total.
British Columbia (9-6) @ Saskatchewan (10-5)—Third meeting in five weeks between these rivals; road team won first two series meetings this year, with Lions (+6.5) winning 24-22 here in Week 13, then Roughriders (+3) snapping 4-game skid with 31-17 road win two weeks ago. Team that won turnover battle won each game. Over last two seasons, teams split their six meetings; last nine series games stayed under the total. Lions allowed 31-40 points in losing last two games; they’re 1-4 as road underdogs this year, with road losses by 12-26-8-14 points- their only cover as a road dog was here four weeks ago. Riders are 3-4 as a home favorite, failing to cover last three home. Five of last six Saskatchewan games stayed under the total.Comment
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Dr Bob
Best Bets:
Indiana 3* +7 or more 2* +6
Wisconsin 3* -13 points or less 2* -14
Utah 3* +3.5 or more 2* +3
Michigan State 2* -28
Utah State 2* -11
Strong Opions:
Washington +3
Texas St -17Comment
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Brian Edwards 20*
Oregon St.Comment
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Wunderdog Sports
Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick.
Game: Miami at North Carolina (Thursday 10/17 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.5 units on North Carolina +10 (-105) at bovada (risk 1.50 to win 1.43)
Folks, this line is inflated. North Carolina can hang in this game. The Heels will have QB Bryn Renner back in action after he missed the Virginia Tech game with a foot injury. Despite the 1-4 record, I expect North Carolina to be plenty excited for this opportunity to make their season, and it is happening before a national audience on Thursday Night. Miami hasn't been as clean coming into this one as their 5-0 record would have you believe. They have committed four turnovers in each of their last two games. Miami has lived on a lot of home cookin' as their only road game of the season was at disappointing South Florida, and this one won't be easy. The Heels have been excellent at defending home turf against good teams as they are 16-5 ATS here in their last 21 vs. a winning team here. The dog is also 8-1-1 ATS in the last ten in this series. This is a huge game for the Tar Heels and they've had two full weeks to prepare. Over 80% of the bets on this game are coming in on Miami but I think this one is closer than it may look. We are getting line value on the home dog. Take the points on North Carolina.
Game: Minnesota at Northwestern (Saturday 10/19 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Minnesota +12.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Northwestern Wildcats won the Big-10 Championship last year. After a 4-0 start to this season, it looked like they had the talent to be in the mix again. They played their hearts out at home vs. Ohio State, but just didn't have enough to get it done. Last week at Wisconsin, this team looked battered and bruised both physically and mentally. They have to now try to pick up the pieces against a competent Minnesota team that is also 4-2. The coaches have sensed the team mood as not having fun, so they tried to lighten things up this week to help loosen things up, but two straight losses don't go just get laughed away. Northwestern has benefitted from 17 takeaways, 5th best in the nation, and that has them looking better than they really are. The Wildcats have gone just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 at home vs. a winning team, and 1-5 ATS when following an ATS loss. The Gophers are no strangers to getting the money here, as they are 7-0 ATS in their last seven at Northwestern. Play on Minnesota.
Game: Connecticut at Cincinnati (Saturday 10/19 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Cincinnati -14 (-120) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.83)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 46 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Huskies are in the midst of their worst season since joining the ranks of the FBS, winless in five games on the season. They have already fired their coach, and are going with an inexperienced QB to look toward the future. That doesn't bode well offensively as they scored just 10 points last week, and have not gotten over 21 points all season. Cincinnati has a strong defense, holding three opponents to 9 points or less and UConn could very well become the fourth. The Bearcats are 8-3 ATS in their last eleven home games. UConn is 7-2 to the UNDER after holding their last opponent to 275 yards or less. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 16-4 to the UNDER in the second of back-to-back home games. Take Cincy and the UNDER in this one.
Game: Ohio at Eastern Michigan (Saturday 10/19 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Eastern Michigan +17 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Eastern Michigan Eagles have struck out, having gone 0-5 vs. FBS opponents this season. The longtime MAC doormats are once again having a difficult campaign. As such, it is easy to see why the public is lined up on Ohio at about 75%. These types of games often have a way of humbling those that follow the money, especially when it looks so easy, often times it is quite the opposite. Last week we learned a little about Ohio as they lost at home to a weak Central Michigan team as a 20-point favorite. Teams that lose as a home favorite of 19 or more points cover just 43% of the time as a road favorite in their next game. The Bobcats have also been pretty sloppy in conference play where they are now 2-8 ATS in their last 10. I expect this to be another adventure for Ohio, so grab the generous points and play on Eastern Michigan.
Game: Massachusettes at Buffalo (Saturday 10/19 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Buffalo -21 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
UMass comes in at 1-5 and one of those losses came by double digits against Maine. The Minutemen's lone win came last week when they were favored against Miami Ohio. In the four games against quality opponents like Buffalo, UMass has been outscored 21-134, or by 28.3 points per game on average. After starting the season 0-2, the Bulls have reeled off four straight wins. Last week they shut out Western Michigan on the road 33-0, easily covering the 9.5 point spread. This one could and should get ugly real quick. Lay the points on Buffalo.
Game: Maryland at Wake Forest (Saturday 10/19 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Wake Forest +6 (-120) at bovada (risk 1.00 to win 0.83)
The Maryland Terrapins saw their perfect 4-0 record come to a screeching halt two weeks ago, as they were taken off their pedestal by Florida State in humiliating fashion 63-0. Something changes within a team that is feeling good about themselves after a crippling loss, and last week they snuck out a 27-26 win at home vs. Virginia, falling short of the cover. Now they have to take to the road to play a Wake Forest team off an impressive 15-point win as a +7.5 point underdog. That usually brings out the best in a team, as a team that wins by two TDs or more as a better than a TD home dog, and comes back the next week as a home dog, cover 60% of the time. The Terps are just 4-12 ATS in their last 16 conference games, and are just 1-8 ATS after allowing 200+ on the ground. Play the home dog and back Wake Forest.
Game: L S U at Mississippi (Saturday 10/19 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 60 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
After the Bayou Bengals handed the Gators a 17-6 loss at LSU, the questions about their defense began to subside rather quickly. The only team that has given the LSU defense a lot of trouble this season was Georgia, and this Ole Miss offense is not of that caliber. We found that out when they were unbeaten and headed to Alabama where they never found the scoreboard. What they did do was hold the Tide to a season-low 25 points, and I think this game takes on a similar defensive characteristic. The Rebels take some defensive pride, and after allowing over 200 yards on the ground the previous week, they have followed by playing 20-8 to the UNDER in their next contest, including 5-1 to the UNDER if they gave up 40+. LSU is 18-7 UNDER in their last 25 road games vs. good offensive teams (those like Ole Miss that average 425+ yards per game). Make the play on the UNDER.
Game: Arkansas at Alabama (Saturday 10/19 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Alabama -28 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Alabama Crimson Tide have been dominating NCAA Football for the last five years. They have won three of the last four BCS Championships, and certainly will be in the hunt to make that four of five. As dominating as they have been, the Tide are downright scary at home. In their last 34 home games Alabama has allowed a meager 7.5 points per game. When they face a team that has a winning percentage below .750, they allow 4.5 ppg! They have a Heisman-caliber QB to compliment the defense, so they don't have to score 40 here to cover... they might get it done with 30is points. Considering that Arkansas has allowed an average of 48.5 ppg to the top two teams they have faced in LSU and SC (both at home), I don't see them holding the Tide to under 40 on the road. These are lots of points, but they will disappear quickly as the Tide rolls again. Arkansas is 2-9 ATS the past two seasons vs. winning teams and 1-9 ATS overall on the road the past three seasons. All Ala bama in this one.
Game: Nevada at Boise State (Saturday 10/19 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Boise State -22 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
Boise State had their work cut out for themselves this year. They lost a lot of experience and key skill players on offense, as well as a lot of play makers on defense. But this team never strays to far from the win column. Yes, they were zinged in their opener vs. a Washington, but we now see how tough that team really is. Boise also got caught on the road by a single point vs. an unbeaten Fresno State team. That may be it, as this team has grown week by week, and they proved it last week with a big double-digit win against a quality Utah State team on the road. Despite a decent but not great 4-2 record, the Broncos are outscoring foes 41-24 on average. At home they are 3-0, winning on average 55 to 14. The Broncos now take on a Nevada team that has countless holes on defense, and duplicating the 60 points they hung on Southern Miss is in play for Boise State here. Nevada may be excused to some degree for giving up 58 and 62 points to Florida State and UCLA. But , there is no excuse in giving up 51 to San Diego State and 42 to Air Force. Boise State is now again underrated. This one gets ugly fast, so play on Boise State in a rout.
Game: U N L V at Fresno State (Saturday 10/19 10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2.0 units on Fresno State -24.5 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 2.00 to win 1.90)
Coming into this season, the Fresno State Bulldogs were projected on a short list of teams that could be a BCS buster this season. They have so far lived up to the billing at 6-0. They passed their biggest test in getting past Boise State at home. And looking at their last six games, they certainly have a strong chance of finishing unbeaten at 12-0. They are going to have to win impressively to have a shot at being a BCS buster so points will matter for this team. And, they can score, having put up 40+ against all six opponents so far. UNLV should be quite accommodating as they have allowed an average of 39.5 points per game in their last two vs. Hawaii and New Mexico. The Rebels are one of the consistently worst road teams in NCAA Football at 10-39 ATS in their last 49 on the road. Under Bobby Hauk, this team is just 4-16 ATS on the road. The Bulldogs are motivated and capable of pouring it on here, so play on Fresno State.
Game: Utah at Arizona (Saturday 10/19 10:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 59.5 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
There is no doubt that this is a more typical Utah team than we have seen in a recent years, as they have improved tremendously. After scoring 131 points in their first three games vs. some soft teams, Arizona has managed just 44 in their last two as they get into the Pac-12 portion of their schedule. The points are simply not coming as easy. Both of these teams are average offensively and can get enough stops when not playing an elite offense. As a result, I expect this one to be a lot lower scoring than projected. That certainly has been the case for this Arizona team for quite some time as they have played to a 17-5-1 UNDER mark in their last 23 at home vs. a team with a winning road record. Utah has followed suit on the road where they are 5-1 to the UNDER vs. a team with a winning home record. This series solidifies all of that with five of the last six failing to get to the total. Take the UNDER in this one.
Game: Oregon State at California (Saturday 10/19 10:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Oregon State -9.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The California Golden Bears have fielded some strong teams in the recent past. But last year and this year they are about as bad as any Cal team in memory. The Golden Bears are 1-5, and have yet to cover a game. Dating back to last season, they are 1-8 ATS vs. winning teams. The lone win this year was vs. Portland State at home as a 31-point favorite, eking out a 38-31 win. This is a team allowing 43.7 points per game. Now that they are getting into the Pac-12 portion of their schedule, they have scored an average of just 16 ppg in their last three. You don't have to be a math major to see they that are in trouble here. Oregon State averages 43.3 ppg against teams better defensively on average than California, and I just don't see the Bears threatening the low number here. Since the arrival of Mike Riley in Corvallis, the Beavers are 62-44 ATS in conference play and 12-2 ATS vs. bad teams (those getting outscored by 10+ points per game). Take the Bea vers here.Comment
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Pointwise:
Baylor over Iowa St - Rating 1
Buffalo over U Mass - Rating 1
UCLA over Stanford - Rating 2
Oregon St over California - Rating 3
East Carolina over So Miss - Rating 4
Alabama over Arkansas - Rating 4
Syracuse over Ga Tach - Rating 5
Oregon over Wash St - Rating 5Comment
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Pointwise: Red Sheet
Oregon State - Rating 89
BYU - Rating 89
Buffalo - Rating 88
Ball State - Rating 88
Ohio State - Rating 88
Near Choices: Baylor, Syracuse, Rice, Texas A&MComment
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Northcoast Early Bird Play--Ohio StateComment
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Stu Feiner
First ever 15 million dollor play a HUMAN LOCK CLEMSONComment
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LA Syndicate
Top Plays
Oregon State
Utah
Oregon
Over Baylor
Fresno StComment
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Chicago Syndicate
Top Plays
Florida State
South Alabama
Over Northwestern
Over Navy
Under MissouriComment
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