10-20-13

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Betting history says NFL home ATS trend will balance out
by Jason Logan

The sports betting world, like the universe, has a way of balancing things out.

One-sided trends, over time, usually even themselves. For bettors, it’s strictly a matter of figuring out when these trends will flip and jumping on the other side before the value is wiped clean.

Take for example the current home team ATS trend in the NFL. Hosts are 57-36-0 SU and 50-40-3 ATS (55.56 percent) heading into Sunday’s Week 7 schedule, including a 32-24-3 ATS (57.14 percent) record for home favorites.

However, Thursday night saw the Arizona Cardinals get blown away by the visiting Seattle Seahawks, 34-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home underdogs. And last week, home teams took a nose dive, finishing Week 6 with a 6-9 ATS record.

Those could be signs that the tide is turning when it comes to betting NFL home teams this fall. Looking back at past seasons, many one-sided trends to start the season are met with a mirror image in the second half of the schedule, keeping things pretty “Even Steven” when it comes to home/away records for the league.

Oddsmakers don’t factor those early-season trends into the week-to-week lines, staying the course with team-by-team matchups, current form and key injuries as the compasses for setting the NFL odds.

“Trends like this always come back to the mean and if anything, we expect to see more teams cover based on regression,” Peter Childs of Sportsbook. “Now, if the public starts supporting this trend with their money, we will adjust but we haven’t seen a change in their betting behavior based on that 57 percent ATS by the home team.”

The oddsmakers are right about the trends balancing themselves out. Since 2003, NFL home teams are 1,460-1,091-2 SU and 1,202-1,275-76 ATS (48.5 percent) - excluding those neutral-site international games.

Last season, home teams were bad against the spread through the first eight weeks of the schedule, posting a 49-65-3 ATS mark (43 percent). However, in the final eight weeks, that trend found even ground, with host clubs finishing 69-67-2 ATS (50.72 percent) – making home teams 118-132-5 ATS (47 percent) on the season.

Over the past 10 NFL seasons – not including 2013 – there have only been a handful of years in which the home/away ATS lean was notable. In 2009, NFL home teams were 115-131-9 ATS (46.8%). In 2008, hosts clubs went 111-138-6 ATS (44.7%). In 2004, they were 115-133-8 ATS (46.4%). And in 2003, home teams were 51.7 percent winners with a 127-118-11 ATS mark.

Heading into Sunday’s Week 7 schedule, sportsbooks currently have 10 of the 14 home teams set as betting favorites, with the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts getting the points at home.

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DOC SPORTS

3 Unit Play. #410 Take Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over Dallas Cowboys (Sunday 1 pm FOX) The two best teams in the NFC East currently sit at 3-3, but the winner of this game will take a leg up in a very weak division. Dallas is really banged up at the moment with DeMarcus Ware and DeMarco Murray doubtful for this game. That puts the Cowboys as a one-dimensional team, and that will not get the job done against Philadelphia. To me it does not matter who starts at quarterback for Philadelphia as either one of them will be able to move the football on the Cowboys defense that was picked apart by Denver two weeks ago. Dallas is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games following a victory in their previous game. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against NFC teams.

3 Unit Play. #420 Take Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 over Baltimore Ravens (Sunday 4:25 pm CBS) The Ravens looked bad last week against the Packers yet still gave us a cover with a late rally in the second half. Expect their luck to continue this week against Pittsburgh, a team that earned their first victory of the season last week against the New York Jets. Baltimore is 1-7 ATS in their last eight games played during the month of October. Pittsburgh continues to play hard against a team that cannot run the football or protect their quarterback.

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Cowboys at Eagles What bettors need to know

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 55.5)

The NFC East is hardly a dominant division, but someone has to emerge as the best of the bunch. The Dallas Cowboys and host Philadelphia Eagles will battle for first place on Sunday in a divisional matchup that could feature a back-and-forth aerial display. Philadelphia has given up the second-most passing yards in the NFL on average (314.5), while Dallas’ mark is the third-worst in the league (308.2).

That could be good news for Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, who was named the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Week after torching the Buccaneers for 296 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-20 victory. Michael Vick missed that game with a hamstring injury and will sit out versus Dallas, but don’t expect any sympathy cards from the Cowboys’ coaching staff. The laundry list of injuries for Dallas includes star linebacker DeMarcus Ware (quadriceps), who has never missed a game in his nine-year career, and running back DeMarco Murray (knee), who also appears unlikely to play this Sunday.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Eagles opened -3 and are now -2.5.The total opened at 56.5 and is down one point.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3): Tony Romo’s interceptions are always put under the microscope, but the Dallas quarterback has 14 touchdown passes against only three INTs this season. Jason Witten could be in for a big game, as the Philadelphia defense has struggled against tight ends this season and Witten has given the Eagles fits throughout his career. The biggest concern for Philadelphia might be Dallas return man Dwayne Harris, who had an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 90-yard kickoff return in last week’s victory over Washington.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): The Eagles, who lead the NFL with 178.5 rushing yards per game, gave the ball to LeSean McCoy 25 times last weekend, resulting in a 116-yard performance for the league’s leading rusher. McCoy has 630 rushing yards and his stellar season has somewhat overshadowed teammate DeSean Jackson, who is second in the NFL with 589 receiving yards under first-year coach Chip Kelly. That said, nobody on the Eagles overshadows Jason Peters – literally – but the massive offensive tackle could miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Eagles last five vs. NFC.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 2-0 within the NFC East, 1-0 against the rest of the NFC and 0-3 against the AFC West.

2. On Wednesday, Dallas released four-time Pro Bowl DT Jay Ratliff (sports hernia, hamstring).

3. No team has allowed more yards per game (420.2) or first downs per game (25.3) than the Eagles.

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Patriots at Jets What bettors need to know

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5, 44)

The New York Jets know the road to the AFC East title goes through New England and they have a chance to take a step in that direction when they host the divison-leading Patriots on Sunday. The Jets sit two games behind the Patriots and have lost the last six meetings, including a three-point loss at New England in Week 2. Rookie Geno Smith and New York have been unable to put together back-to-back wins and were throttled in a 19-6 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.

The Patriots rebounded from their lone loss with a dramatic victory last week, getting a touchdown pass from Tom Brady with five seconds to play to overcome then-unbeaten New Orleans. The victory came at a high price, however, as the Patriots lost linebacker and leading tackler Jerod Mayo for the season with a torn pectoral muscle and saw wide receiver Danny Amendola and cornerback Aqib Talib also exit with injuries. Neither player is expected to be available this week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Pats opened as 3.5-point road faves. The total opened at 43 and is up to 43.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-3): New York limited the Patriots to 232 total yards and kept Brady under wraps in the 13-10 Week 2 loss, but Smith cost his team any chance at victory by throwing three fourth-quarter interceptions. Smith threw a career-high three touchdown passes in a 30-28 upset at Atlanta on Oct. 7, but he was picked off twice last week - his fourth game with multiple interceptions. The Jets' defense has been exceptional, ranking second in rushing yards allowed (75.7) and fourth in total yards (303.8) and sacks (20).

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (5-1): While New England remains in a season-long holding pattern on the status of injured tight end Rob Gronkowski, Brady continues to work with a patchwork wide receiver corps led by Julian Edelman, who had 13 of his 41 receptions in Week 2. Stevan Ridley has struggled for much of the season but provided a spark to the running game last week with 96 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With Mayo joining perennial Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wolfork on the sidelines, the Patriots' 24th-ranked run defense is vulnerable.

TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in New York.
* Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Patriots have won the last two meetings in New Jersey by a combined 51 points.

2. Jets DE Muhammad Wilkerson needs one sack to surpass last season's career high of five.

3. Brady, who is 18-4 in the regular season versus the Jets, needs one TD pass to eclipse Fran Tarkenton (342) for fourth on the all-time list.

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Where the Action is Sunday's NFL Line Moves

Peyton Manning and his return to Indianapolis is stealing headlines, but Week 7 of the NFL schedule contains a few more intriguing matchups than just the Broncos at the Colts.

We talk to oddsmakers about the biggest adjustments to the Week 7 odds and where the action is heading into Sunday's kickoffs:

New England Patriots at New York Jets - Open: +6, Move: +4

The Pats might be 5-1 straight up, but bettors are fading the AFC East giants. TE Rob Gronkowski has been cleared to play but remains listed as questionable as we inch closer toward Sunday's kickoff.

"Early sharp money is fading the Patriots," says Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook. "Monday, we got sharp bet at +6 and moved to +5. Another wiseguy play on Tuesday made us move the number to Pats -4. Seventy percent of money is on New England."

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers - Open: -7

A matchup featuring a pair of such inconsistent teams naturally has sharps and the betting public at opposite ends of the spectrum.

"Sharps are backing the St. Louis dog number at +7 and the public is backing Carolina at any number," an oddsmaker with BetDSI. "When this happens you get some interesting trends with current wager count favoring the Panthers 2-to-1 while total volume wagered favors the Rams 2-to-1."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - Open: -8, Move: -7

The Bucs are one of just three teams without a victory and the Falcons are nothing to write home about either. The latter is hobbling into this NFC South tilt incredibly banged up and without many weapons for QB Matt Ryan.

"Wiseguys taking the dog here makes some sense," Childs. "After all, the Falcons are coming off back-to-back home losses on nationally televised games. Also, Julio Jones is out and it doesn't appear Roddy White will play either."

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Open: -3, Move: -2.5

The Ravens continue to be a favorite of sharp bettors yet again in this AFC North affair. Ravens QB Joe Flacco may have turned the corner as he did not turn the ball over in the loss to Green Bay one week ago.

"Sharp money liked Baltimore last week and the love affair continues this week," say BetDSI. "Sharps are backing the Ravens at +3 -120. Sharp money is also backing the over 40 value which has been moved to 41."

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins - Open: Pick, Move: -1

The opening line here ranged anywhere from a pick to Skins -2 at various wagering outlets. Washington is just 1-4 both SU and ATS this season, but are seeing the bulk of action at home.

"On Tuesday morning, wiseguy play came on Washington, so moved them to -1," Childs says. "Sixty-nine percent of cash is on Washington."

BetDSI also states that sharp money has been coming in on the Over 48 for this matchup and that public money will have its say as well.

"Public money is and will continue to add to the over driving it up to the current 49.5 value."

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Essential Betting Tidbits for Week 7 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 34-7 SU in home starts despite dropping the last two games at the Georgia Dome.

- The Buccaneers certainly fare well in Georgia. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Atlanta. Bucs are +6 dogs Sunday.

- The Chicago Bears are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 28.7 points per game and are 5-1 O/U this season.

- The Redskins have had the Bears number in recent history. The Skins have won four-straight games and eight of the last 10. They are 8-2 ATS in those last 10 games.

- No team has allowed more yards per game (420.2) or first downs per game (25.3) than the Philadelphia Eagles.

- The Cowboys are tied with the K.C. Chiefs with the top ATS record in the league at 5-1. Cowboys are 2.5-point road faves Sunday.

- The New England Patriots have won the last two meetings in New Jersey against the New York Jets by a combined 51 points. Pats are 3.5-point road faves Sunday.

- Speaking of the Pats, they are the top Covers consensus pick with 74.65 percent siding with the road team.

- The Bills can't pass and can't stop the pass. Buffalo ranks 29th in passing offense (213.5) and 22nd in pass defense (270.8 yards).

- Nobody gets sacked more than Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill at 4.8 per game.

- The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers. Sunday's total currently 42.5.

- The Cincinnati Bengals lead the series with the Detroit Lions 7-3 and have won the last four meetings, with the last victory coming in 2009. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, dating back to 1986.

- Total bettors will like the totals at Ford Field, where the over is 5-1 in the Lions last six home games. Sunday's total is currently 46.5.

- The San Diego Chargers have outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last two meetings by a score of 76-27. Chargers are 9.5-point road faves Sunday.

- The Tennessee Titans have been outscored 156-47 during a four-game losing streak against NFC teams. Titans are 3-point home dogs against the NFC West San Fraincisco 49ers Sunday.

The Green Bay Packers have won 10 straight regular season and playoff home games by an average margin of 14.6 points. The Pack are 10-point home faves versus Cleveland.

- The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings at Pittsburgh between the Ravens and Steelers. Sunday's total is currently 41.

- The Steelers have the second-worst rushing offense in the league with 61.0 yards per game - just half a yard more than the dreadful Jaguars.

- The Chiefs have not started 7-0 since winning their first nine games in 2003, and they are the first team to win its first six games after losing 14 or more the previous season.

- The Over in the Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts Sunday nighter is the top Covers consensus total pick with 76.23 percent siding on the over 57.

- The Broncos have played over the total in each of their first six games this season.

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English Breakfast: Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur

After a busy Saturday in the Barclays Premier League, Sunday's schedule sees just one match. Tottenham Hotspur must bounce back this week following an humiliating 3-0 defeat to West Ham at White Hart Lane. But Aston Villa will not be a pushover. Especially if Christian Benteke returns to lead the line for the Villains.

We talk to Aron Black at Bet365 to find where action is on this fixture at Villa Park.

Aston Villa v Tottenham Hotspur (+300, +250, +105)

Why bet Aston Villa: The Villains are playing spirited football after slumping with three consecutive defeats. In their previous three matches, the side has managed a pair of wins followed by a scoreless draw versus Hull last time out, which has them sitting 11th in the table. Villa currently boasts a dangerous crob of young stars, including Fabian Delph, Andreas Weimann, and the deadly Benteke - who could make his return from injury.

Key players out/doubtful: Charles N'Zogbia, Jores Okore, Gary Gardner

Why bet Tottenham: Spurs were the league's top defensive club before being thrashed at home by a game West Ham last time out. The North London club couldn't take anything of value from the defeat, but will must bounce back with a full three points should they aim to compete for the league title. Andros Townsend - who just inked a four-year contract extension - is playing like a man possessed. The winger was a star for England en route to cementing a spot in Brazil 2014.

Key players out/doubtful: Etienne Capoue, Younes Kaboul, Emmanuel Adebayor

2012-13 fixture result: Villa 0, Spurs 4

Key betting note: Spurs have won six and drawn three in their last nine league matches versus Villa.

Where the action is: "Quality through the side says that Spurs should be able to come away with the three points and the action sides with that as they have a lot of support at +105. Games like this, where it can be tough to call a result, often see a lot more prop play. Both teams to score at -138 is a popular play. Over 2.5 goals at -105 is also very popular, and for goalscorers, Spurs midfielder Paulinho sees action at +400 to score anytime. Hes been getting amongst the forward play a lot and could represent value at the price."

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Tiger-Cats at Alouettes: What bettors need to know

Hamilton Tiger-Cats at Montreal Alouettes (+1, 52.5)

Quarterback Troy Smith will likely get his first CFL start as the Montreal Alouettes try to secure the final playoff spot when they host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Sunday. Smith joined the team in August and will replace Josh Neiswander, who has been inconsistent filling in for injured veteran Anthony Calvillo. The Alouettes could be stepping into hostile ground when they take the field Sunday since they are 2-5 at home and Montreal fans are losing patience.

The Tiger-Cats are coming off back-to-back wins against the Toronto Argonauts that pulled them within two points of the East Division lead. Hamilton quarterback Henry Burris has nine 300-yard passing games and leads the league with 4,523 yards, but Hamilton’s defense has impressed as well recently, limiting the high-powered Argonauts offense to 37 points over the last two contests. If the Tiger-Cats can get pressure on the inexperienced Smith, Burris might not need to throw very much to secure a victory.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, TSN

ABOUT THE TIGER-CATS (8-7): Rookies are providing the spark on Hamilton’s offense as running back C.J. Gable was named offensive player of the week after running for 118 yards on 17 carries against Toronto. Wide receiver Luke Tasker has 202 receiving yards and one touchdown in his first three CFL games, giving Burris yet another reliable option in his receiving corps. Defensive lineman Brandon Boudreaux leads the team with six sacks and has one interception.

ABOUT THE ALOUETTES (6-9): Smith, a former Heisman Trophy recipient, has completed 15 passes for 100 yards and one touchdown, with two interceptions as well as nine carries for 17 rushing yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns. Linebacker Chip Cox leads Montreal’s defense with 98 tackles and has four interceptions and six sacks. The Alouettes lead the league in interceptions with 22, with defensive back Jerald Brown and cornerback Geoff Tisdale catching five each.

TRENDS:

* Tiger-Cats are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Tiger-Cats are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 meetings in Montreal.
* Alouettes are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 5-2 in Alouettes last seven vs. a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Montreal can also clinch a playoff spot with a Winnipeg Blue Bombers loss Saturday.

2. Hamilton is 6-1 against divisional opponents.

3. The Tiger-Cats and Alouettes complete their season series next week in Guelph, Ont.

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NASCAR tackles Talladega on Sunday
by Brian Graham

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Camping World RV Sales 500[

Sunday, October 20 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Talladega Superspeedway – Talladega, AL
Talladega takes center stage for the NASCAR circuit on Sunday afternoon for the Camping World RV Sales 500. This tri-oval superspeedway is 2.66 miles long with 33-degree banking on the turns, 16.5 degrees on the frontstretch (4,300 feet) and 2-degree banking on the 4,000-foot backstretch. This is arguably the most unpredictable track on the circuit, with 10 different winners in the past 12 races, leading to favorable odds for all the drivers. David Ragan shocked the field with a win here in May despite being tabbed with 100-to-1 odds.

Odds to Win Race

Driver Odds
Kyle Busch 10-to-1
Jimmie Johnson 10-to-1
Matt Kenseth 10-to-1
Jeff Gordon 10-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10-to-1
Kevin Harvick 10-to-1
Brad Keselowski 15-to-1
Kasey Kahne 15-to-1
Kurt Busch 15-to-1
Clint Bowyer 15-to-1
Carl Edwards 18-to-1
Greg Biffle 20-to-1
Jamie McMurray 20-to-1
Joey Logano 20-to-1
Denny Hamlin 25-to-1
Martin Truex Jr. 25-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver) 30-to-1
Ryan Newman 30-to-1
Jeff Burton 40-to-1
Aric Almirola 40-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. 40-to-1
Michael Waltrip 40-to-1
Paul Menard 40-to-1
Austin Dillon 40-to-1
Danica Patrick 40-to-1
Juan Montoya 40-to-1
David Ragan 40-to-1
Sam Hornish Jr. 50-to-1
David Gilliland 60-to-1
Trevor Bayne 75-to-1
Marcos Ambrose 75-to-1
Justin Allgaier 100-to-1
Dave Blaney 100-to-1
Casey Mears 100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (10/1) - We always pounce on Johnson whenever he gets double-digit odds. He won two of the three restrictor plate races this season, taking home the checkered flag in both Daytona starts, and placing 5th in the May race at Talladega. In the past eight races at this track, Johnson has four top-2 starts and four top-7 finishes. As he usually does this time of year, Johnson is consistently racing at the front of the pack, tallying five straight top-6 finishes. With 17 career victories at tracks at least two miles long, Johnson our pick to win again on Sunday.

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - Based on his recent success at Talladega, Bowyer represents the best value on the board here at 15-to-1. In his past seven starts at this track, he has two victories, a runner-up, a 6th-place finish and a 7th-place showing. He’s also in the midst of a monster season with eight top-5's and 15 top-10's. Although he hasn't placed better than 9th in eight straight races, he did perform well in his two other restrictor plate races in 2013, finishing 4th and 11th at Daytona.

Matt Kenseth (10/1) - The restrictor plate king has finished 3rd, 1st and 8th in his past three starts at Talladega Superspeedway, but he curiously has not been a factor in either race at Daytona, with engine failure to start the year, and a 33rd-place showing in the July Daytona race. However, it's no surprise that Kenseth continues to leads the Chase for the Cup, cranking out three wins and three other top-7 finishes in his past eight races this season. With double-digit odds, Kenseth is certainly worthy of a small wager for Sunday.

David Ragan (40/1) - His win in May at this track may have come with triple-digit odds, but it wasn't a fluke, considering he placed 7th and 4th at Talladega in 2012, making him third in driver points over the past four starts at this track. Ragan has only one other top-15 finish all season (12th at Bristol), but he did lead for a lap at Daytona. He also won at Daytona in 2011, showing that his darkhorse odds could once again pay off for Sunday.

Michael Waltrip (40/1) - Superspeedways are the only time to consider Waltrip, as he has won once at Talladega (2003) and three times at Daytona (2001, 2002, 2003) in his career. While these victories came at least a decade ago, Waltrip led for 19 laps at Talladega last spring and could've won at Talladega last fall if Tony Stewart didn't wreck him on the final lap. Waltrip then placed fourth at the May Talladega race. At 40-to-1 odds, Waltrip is worth a one-unit wager for Sunday.

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Pointspreadpros

Week 8 TOP Plays

CAROLINA -6
INDIANAPOLIS +6.5
Chicago +1
Baltimore +1

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL BALTIMORE at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PITTSBURGH) in a game involving two average teams (within +/- 40 YPG of their opponents), after gaining 400 or more total yards/game over their last 3 games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% 0.0 units )

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MTI's 2 Team 6 point teaser

4.5* Dallas +9 & Baltimore +8

MTI's 3 Team 10 point teaser

4* Lions +7.5, Chiefs +3.5, Packers pick'em

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The Swami (Chris Berman)

NFL

DEN 33-30

BALT 19-16

KCITY 24-13

CHIC 27-24

SF 24-17

BUFF 24-23

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Football Crusher
Chicago Bears -115 over Washington Redskins
(System Record: 27-2, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 27-20

Hockey Crusher
Columbus Blue Jackets -105 over Vancouver Canucks
(System Record: 6-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 6-4

Soccer Crusher
Portuguesa RJ + Victoria UNDER 3
This match is happening in Brazil
(System Record: 472-17, won last 3 games)
Overall Record: 472-405-65

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Football Jesus FREE NFL Pick, Eagles , so far 5-0-1 in NFL free picks after week 6