10-26-13

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60 Percent Guaranteed
Saturday, Oct. 26

Alabama -28
Wyoming/san jose st over 71
Missouri -3
Stanford -4
Washington -29.5

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elite-winners
FREE PLAY TODAY
Fresno State at San Diego State Over 62
NOTRE DAME -19.5

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Arthur Ralph's Super pk Nebraska Gold Keys Oregon, Washington, Illinois, Oregon State, Oklahoma, Notre Dame

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Gavazzi World Series Game 3
3% St Louis -105

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Hoopsgooroo

116 Akron +10
167 Northwestern +4
112 Virginia +10
117 Miami +26
157 Michigan St. -10
155 West Virginia +11.5
178 Air Force +20
189 S. Carolina +3
202 Ohio State -15

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Bryan Edwards 20*

Vanderbilt

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Cajun Sports Wire




Your Selection


GAME: Nebraska vs. Minnesota 12:00PM EST


[BRATING: 5.5* Nebraska Cornhuskers -10][/B]


ANALYSIS:


The Cornhuskers hit the road for just the second time on Saturday as they face the Minnesota Gophers who are coming off an upset win over Northwestern last week. That outright win by Minnesota gives us line value here with the Huskers. Nebraska enters this contest well rested and having already dispatched another offensive-challenged team their last time away from home. The Huskers destroyed Purdue 44 to 7 their last trip away from home and we expect a similar outcome here today. Minnesota is coming off that upset win at Northwestern last week winning 20 to 17 over a Cats team that had two key players out, QB Colter and RB Mark. Minnesota's offense ranks 115th in the nation in total offense, this is bad news as the Black Shirts have sixteen sacks in their last four games. Even with their win last week at Northwestern the Gophers have only managed 13.3 points per game over their last three outings. Nebraska has an 83 to 26 point advantage as well as 586 to 227 yards rushing edge the last two games. The TPR Index projects a point differential of 15.8-points. The Math Model projects a point differential of 6.91-points. The PPR Index projects a point advantage of 16.78-points with another +1.0 added with the return of Nebraska QB Martinez. We note that road favorites coming off a bye week with a double-digit road win prior to the bye and a TPR advantage of 4.0 or more versus a team coming off a road win their last time out are 20-4-1 ATS the last twenty-five qualifying contests. We want to Play ON CFB favorites in this price range off a double-digit road win against a team that is also coming off a road victory. These road favorites are a blistering 24-4 ATS the last five seasons, 63-42 ATS since 1992 including a perfect 8-0 ATS the last three seasons. Nebraska's power index numbers with a 78 percent ATS advantage in today's matchup qualifies them as an Outlaw Annihilator Best Bet on Saturday. Lay the points as a well-rested Big Red rolls past an overmatched group of Gophers on Saturday afternoon. Lay the chalk


PROJECTED FORECAST: 5.5* Nebraska Huskers 44 Minnesota Gophers 17


GAME: California Bears vs. Washington Huskies 11:00PM EST


RATING: 5* Washington Huskies -27


ANALYSIS:


The Cal Bears are looking for the end of a terrible season and one where they have obviously tossed the towel on the 2013 campaign. The Huskies enter off a loss in the desert which can be blamed in part on their two previous outings versus Stanford and Oregon in which they were defeated handily. After a tough three game stretch this Huskies team is in need of a big win and we expect them to get that tonight at home versus a horrible Cal Bears team. Cal is 0-7 ATS this season and 0-10 ATS when the game total is in a range of 63.5 to 70 points. The Bears have struggled when playing with six or less days rest posting a record of 3-12 against the number. Cal struggles coming off a game in which they allowed at least 475 yards of total offense going 0-8 against the number. We want to Play AGAINST CFB road underdogs in this price range averaging 255 or more passing yards per game, 51-20 ATS the last ten seasons including 15-4 ATS the last three years and a perfect 2-0 ATS this season. Play ON CFB home favorites of 21.5 or more points when facing conference opponents with four or more starters returning than their opponent, 87-43 ATS since 82 including 10-5 ATS the last three years. By Week 8 of the college season teams are playing for a bowl invitation and others are just playing out the balance of their schedule with some qualifying as towel tossing teams. The Cal Bears qualify as a towel tossing team and the Huskies look to take advantage of a disinterested visitor. We note that teams playing Game 8 off three straight losses now installed as road underdogs are 38-69-3 ATS since 1980. If their opponent enters off back to back losses the record for this overmatched underdog is 20-46-2 against the number. A check of our road underdog we see that these teams are 3-23-2 against the spread with a defense that allows 32.5 or more points per game as an underdog of eight plus points. Washington is averaging 13.8 yards per point at home this season while their defense is holding their opponents to 22.8 yards per point. Cal is almost the reverse of the Bears in this situation with their offense averaging 24.8 yards per point away from home and their defense is allowing the opposing offense to average 9.4 yards per point. We have an All Systems Go on Washington on Saturday night. Lay the chalk


PROJECTED FORECAST: 5* Washington Huskies 55 California Bears 19


GAME: Boston College Eagles vs. North Carolina Tar Heels 3:30PM EST


RATING: 4. 5* Boston College +7


ANALYSIS:


The Boston College Eagles have improved over the last month after suffering an embarrassing loss to the Trojans. They have covered the spread by 9.5 and 14.5 points against two high-powered ACC opponents in FSU and Clemson. BC is led by QB Retting and RB Williams who help provide a balanced offensive attack for this Eagles team. North Carolina enters off a very emotional loss to the Miami Hurricanes at home 27 to 23. The Tar Heels have been unable to stop their opponents rushing attack ranked 116th in the nation. The TPR Index projects a point advantage of 1.54-points. The Math Model projects a point differential of +2.87-points in favor of the visitor. Boston College catches the Tar Heels off a humiliating defeat versus Miami and they have NC State on deck. This provides a perfect situation for Boston College to come out of tobacco country with a victory. Take the points with this live dog on Saturday


PROJECTED FORECAST: 4.5* Boston College 29 North Carolina 27


NCAA Total Best Bets


4* Vanderbilt - Texas A&M OVER


4* GA Tech - Virginia OVER


4* Fresno State - San Diego State OVER

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Joe Gavazzi Late Phones (PPP selections ranked 3-6%)
5% #163 Oklahoma -6.5
4% #115 Ball State -9.5
4% #143 Florida Atlantic +24
4% #195 Nebraska -10
4% #202 Ohio State -15.5
3% #123 Houston +7
3% #125 Boston College +6.5
3% #140 Colorado +13
3% #156 Kansas State -11.5
3% #180 Miami -20.5

Gavazzi PPP Late Phone Totals
5% #178 Western Kentucky/Troy State Over 61.5
4% #170 Nevada/UNLV Over 67.5
4% #202 Ohio State/Penn State Over 55.5
3% #208 Colorado State/Hawaii Over 54

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Wunderdog










Each pick is rated from 0.5 to 2.5 units (read about units). Risk 1% of your total bankroll per unit and never risk more than a few percent of your bankroll on any pick.




Game: Northwestern at Iowa (Saturday 10/26 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Northwestern +4 (-110) at Sportsbook.com (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Wildcats won the Big-10 Title a year ago, and they are still a quality team. They have fallen out of public favor after losing three straight games. But remember, those losses came to teams that are a combined 19-4. This is still a quality team that had a tough three weeks in terms of scheduling, and they are getting a bump in the line here because of it. Iowa is going to need a big effort from their defense as the Cats like to spread things out and wear their opponents down. Northwestern has excelled on field turf, covering six of their last seven. A red flag for Iowa is they are allowing 200+ on the ground as they have followed their last five after having done so with an 0-5 ATS mark. The Cats have taken four of their last five, and they are itching to break out vs. an opponent they can handle. Play on Northwestern.




Game: Wake Forest at Miami (Saturday 10/26 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Miami -24 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Hurricanes have their best team in years, and have received word that they will be eligible for Bowl play this season, which has to be a huge lift for this unbeaten team. They need some help, but with a game forthcoming vs. Florida State, they can certainly make their case a lot better. Wake Forest has had just one game vs. an elite team, and if that is any indication of what to expect here, they are in a lot of trouble. The Deacons lost to Clemson 56-7 as a 28.5 point dog on the road, and as a result, this number looks pretty small to me. The Deacs simply have not been competitive on the road vs. a team with a winning home record where they are 2-14 ATS in their last 16 such games. This season they are averaging just 14 points per game away from home and that ain't gonna cut it against the Canes who average over 44 per game here. Take Miami.




Game: Ball State at Akron (Saturday 10/26 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Ball State -9 (-105) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
This is a short line considering the resumes of these two teams. Ball State comes in at 7-1, averaging 39.1 points per game. Sure it's a road game but Ball State is 3-1 on the road, averaging actually more points (41.0 per game). Akron is 2-6 including 1-2 at home. They are allowing 31.5 points per game (37 per game at home) and their offense has really gone in the tank since the start of conference play. In four conference games, the Zips are averaging just 15.2 points per contest. Since the arrival of Pete Lembo in Muncie, this Cardinals team has out-performed expectations going 22-11 ATS. On the flip side, Terry Bowden coached teams are just 2-10 ATS as a home underdog. Lay the points with Ball State.




Game: Louisville at S. Florida (Saturday 10/26 12:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.5 units on Game Total UNDER 46.5 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.50 to win 1.43)
The Louisville Cardinals saw their chances to play for a National Championship virtually eliminated at home last week with their loss to Central Florida. As a result they may be a bit flat in this game vs. a weak South Florida team. Louisville has struggled in these types of games, at least offensively. The Cards produced just 24 vs. Rutgers, 27 vs. Kentucky, and 30 vs. a one-win Temple team. South Florida simply won't score much here, as the Bulls average less than 20 ppg against lesser defenses. On the season, Louisville has given up just 11.7 points per game. The Bulls have an 8-2 mark to the UNDER in their last 10 overall, and just one of their last eight vs. a team with a winning record has topped the total. They are also 11-2 to the UNDER the past three seasons as an underdog. Play the UNDER here.




Game: Miami Ohio at Ohio U (Saturday 10/26 2:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Ohio U -25 (-105) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
This is a natural MAC rivalry between a pair of Ohio schools that are on opposite paths. Miami Ohio has the dubious distinction of losing in back to back weeks to Akron and UMass, something never done before. This team is 0-7 and the Redhawks offense has been grounded all season, as they have not totaled more than 17 points in any game, and average just 10 per contest. Ohio University is 5-2 and beat the Akron team that Miami lost to 43-3. That certainly points to the potential big blowout we have set for this one. The Redhawks are lacking as an underdog since Don Treadwell took over as coach, going 7-16 ATS in that role. They have covered just one of their last 11 on the road, and this sure does not look like the spot where that changes. Go with Ohio here.




Game: Boston College at North Carolina (Saturday 10/26 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 58 (-108) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.93)
It has been a tough year for the Heels at 1-5, but they have played a very tough schedule through six games, and the defense has actually held up well. They have faced Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, Miami, and SC; and not one of those teams has topped the 28 point mark against them. The problem is the offense against their four BCS conference opponents has not generated more than 23. Boston College enters at 3-3, but is just 0-2 on the road. They have had all sorts of problems scoring on the road the last two years. The Eagles road games since the start of last season have produced just 11.8 ppg. These numbers on both sides suggest this total is going to be hard to reach. The Eagles also boast a 17-4 mark to the UNDER following a spread win. Make this play on the UNDER.




Game: Tennessee at Alabama (Saturday 10/26 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Alabama -27.5 (-110) at bookmaker (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
It seems like a broken record, but Alabama has been playing this song for five years running. They have three championships in the last four years, and are atop the first BCS poll chasing another one. The Tide simply doesn't have any weaknesses, from an experienced high level QB to control on both sides of the line of scrimmage. They simply have a defense, especially at home, that gives very little, with the exception of duel threat mobile QB's. The Tide has an amazing stat, and that is over the last five years at home when facing a team with a winning percentage of below .750, they allow 4 ppg here! I'm not sure what else needs to be said, except Tennessee gave up 34 to Georgia and 59 to Oregon. Oh, and Bama is a perfect 7-0 ATS as a favorite in this range (21.5 to 31 points) the past three seasons. Go with Alabama.




Game: U T E P at Rice (Saturday 10/26 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 59.5 (-115) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.87)
The Owls have become a pretty decent mid-major team at 5-2, and should find themselves in a Bowl game come season's end for the second straight year. The Owls, outside of a pair of BCS Conference games and one loss Houston, have held opponents to less than 20 ppg. UTEP has allowed 38 or less points in all but one game, not counting overtime, so the numbers here come up shy of this posted total. UTEP has had trouble scoring on the road vs. a winning home team leading to four of their last five falling shy of the total. Rice has been strong defensively at home, and they have played each of their last four here to the UNDER. This one should be a lower scoring team than expected.




Game: N C State at Florida State (Saturday 10/26 3:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Florida State -32 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
The Seminoles looked scary good last week, going to Clemson and taking apart the formerly unbeaten Tigers 51-14. Freshman QB Jameis Winston is putting up Heisman numbers, completing over 70% of his passes while posting 20 for scores and just three INTs. If that isn't enough, the Noles defense has held five of six opponents to 14 points or less. Florida State is averaging scores of 53-12 overall and 60-4 at home. NC State has been awesome at home over the years, but not so competitive on the road. The Noles are going to be out for blood here after losing to the Wolfpack 17-16 on the road last year. Florida State has a slim margin over Oregon, so expect them to pour it on heavy here.




Game: U C L A at Oregon (Saturday 10/26 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 0.5 unit on Oregon -23 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 0.50 to win 0.45)
It doesn't seem to matter how big the lines are, or who the competition is. The Quack Attack is off and running every week and so far unstoppable. The Ducks have gone for 45 or more points every game this season, and this year the defense is better than it has been the last couple years. Marcus Mariota doesn't log much TV time, but he has been more efficient than anyone in the nation with 19 TD passes and 0 INT's on the season, to go with nine rushing touchdowns. The Bruins could not get by Stanford last week, losing by a pair of TDs, and it only gets harder this week. Despite facing unthinkable lines and competent BCS conference competition, the Ducks are plowing through the big numbers at 14-3 ATS in their last 17. They are also 11-2 ATS the past three seasons when facing as top-level team (teams at .750 or better). Lay the wood with Oregon.




Game: Georgia State at Louisiana Monroe (Saturday 10/26 7:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Louisiana Monroe -11.5 (-110) at Diamond (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
Georgia State is 0-7, getting out scored by over 19 points per game. On the road their average margin of defeat has been 27.7 points per game. They will lose this one by more than 11. Louisiana Monroe has their issues but this is a game they can win big and they will relish the opportunity. The Warhawks are coming off a confidence-boosting upset win at Texas State. This is a fade of a truly awful team - one that is one of the worst 10 in the entire nation. Take the home team here and lay the points.




Game: Florida Atlantic at Auburn (Saturday 10/26 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Auburn -23.5 (-110) at WagerWeb (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Florida Atlantic Owls aren't going to leave here feeling good. They will get what they came for, a big payday. But on the field they are heavily over-matched. Auburn has made the quantum leap from the SEC basement to SEC contender this season. The Tigers offense is becoming electric with 107 points in their last two games, and typically good teams which were poor a year ago don't let up after a big win. Ranked 11th in the nation, Auburn wants to make a statement to climb into the Top 10. The numbers on offense are growing, and the Owls just don't have the depth or talent to stay remotely close here. Play on Auburn.




Game: Idaho at Ole Miss (Saturday 10/26 7:30 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 59 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
All the shuffling of teams from conference to conference left the Idaho Vandals without a conference this season and they are playing a freelance schedule as an independent. That has put them in front of a lot of different level teams, but just one from a BCS Conference, and that was Washington State. The Cougars aren't very defensive, but they shut the Vandals out, limiting them to 253 total yards. I think the Idaho is in for a similar fate here vs. a pretty good Ole Miss defense. Mississippi isn't exactly built for finding the 50s and 60s against a weak team. In fact they have topped out at 44 in their last 40 games vs. a FBS team. I don't see Idaho contributing much here offensively, so to get to almost 60 with a team that just doesn't get much over 40 ever is asking too much, the UNDER is the play.




Game: Arizona at Colorado (Saturday 10/26 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Game Total UNDER 58 (-105) at 5dimes (risk 1.00 to win 0.95)
Colorado looks to be an improved team from the one that finished last year at 1-11. They are better but a closer look however, shows three wins vs. cupcake teams in Colorado State, Charleston Southern and Central Arkansas. The Buffs were able to generate 40.7 ppg in those three games, and all that did was skew the numbers and the real story. The real story is a below-average offense that has produced just 15.3 ppg in their three contests vs. BCS conference teams, topping out at 17. Arizona has only gotten out of the 30s one time this season, so for this game to find its way close to 60 sure seems like a long path. I can see this one struggling to 50, so lots of wiggle room here. Play the UNDER.




Game: Penn State at Ohio State (Saturday 10/26 8:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: 1.0 unit on Ohio State -14.5 (-110) at BetOnline (risk 1.00 to win 0.91)
The Buckeyes may become the first BCS team in the BCS era to not lose a game two straight years, but at the same time not play for a National Championship. The Buckeyes need some help as they have no big games left to move themselves forward, and all they can do is win by big and noticeable margins on the schedule they have. Penn State moves into the line of fire this week. The Nittany Lions are off a four overtime win vs. Michigan, and could be running out of gas in the second half here as the Ohio State depth and talent begins to take its toll. Ohio State is 49-21-2 ATS in conference play in their last 72, as well as 42-19-2 ATS in their last 63 games vs. a winning teams. Penn State is just 2-7 ATS last nine trips here. Urban Meyer coached teams are 44-26 ATS in home games and 70-42 ATS following a win. Take Ohio State in a blowout.

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Cappers Advantage
CharlotteSports Pending Plays


Houston +7 (-110)
Texas Tech +7 (-115)
Boston College +7 (-105)
Alabama -27.5 (-110)
Texas +3 (-120)
Ohio St -14 (-120)
Washington -24 (-120)
Louisville -2 (-125)
Iowa -3 (-125)
Tulane +3 (-105)
Wyo/SanJoseSt over 71 (-110)




BigEast Pending Plays


GaTech/Virginia over 49 (-110)
Oregon 1st Half -13.5 (-120)
Ohio St -14(-120)

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Lenny Stevens

20* Missouri
20* Ohio State

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Chris Toricci

5* Houston

4* Florida Atlantic, Boston College, Kansas State, Ohio State

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Aaron's Analysis

156 KANSAS STATE WILDCATS minus 10 over West Virginia Mountaineers



The Kansas State Wildcats (2-4) host the West Virginia Mountaineers (3-4) on Saturday in Manhattan. A few weeks back, the Wildcats lost a 33-29 heartbreaker at the hands of the Oklahoma State Cowboys. In that game the Wildcats outgained the Cowboys, but five turnovers proved too costly to overcome. In their last game they posted a moral victory at home versus the runaway freight train otherwise known as the undefeated #8 Baylor Bears, losing 35-25. The Bears haven’t scored less than 69 points versus anyone this year. The Wildcats actually led that one 25-21 entering the fourth quarter. The Mountaineers have lost three of their last four games. Last week they lost to Texas Tech at home 37-27, a game in which they allowed Red Raider QB Davis Webb to throw for 462 yards. They were outgained in that one 573-437. Prior to that, they lost to Baylor 73-42, the same Bear team the Wildcats went toe-to-toe with a few weeks ago. The Bears put up a whopping 864 total yards in that one, in contrast to the mere 451 yards they put up against the Wildcats. The Mountaineers appear to struggle on the road, as not only evidenced by that terrible outing versus the Bears, but also in a 37-0 loss to Maryland. They are just 2-5 ATS last seven games on the road. Conversely, the Wildcats are 11-2 in their last 13 games at home. The Wildcats have the situational advantage of not only playing at home versus a foe that has its share of difficulties on the road, but they are also coming off a bye week. The bye week has allowed two of their top receivers who were absent in the Baylor game a couple of weeks ago to become healthier. Receiver Tyler Lockett, who caught 9 passes for 194 yards and 2 TDs in a 55-14 victory over West Virginia last year, should be back for this one. He has caught 31 passes for 475 yards this season. His father Kevin and uncle Aaron also played for the Cats. Tramaine Thompson (13 catches for 185 yards and 1 TD) has been out the past two games, but should also return here. Both Jake Waters and Daniel Sams split time at QB for the Wildcats. Sams, who is coming off a 199 yard, 3 TD rushing effort (plus 41 passing yards on 7 attempts) versus Baylor, has passed for 261 yards, 68.8% completions and 2 TDS and rushed for 522 yards and 7 TDs this year. Waters has passed for 1,036 yards, 62.3% completions and 4 TDs, along with 151 yards rushing and 2 TDs. Led by the efforts of Sams, the Wildcats put up 327 rushing yards versus the Bears. On the season they’re averaging 184.2 yards per game on the ground. Back John Hubert is versatile, rushing for 358 yards, 4.5 yards per carry, with 111 receiving yards and 5 TDs. The Wildcats should fare well versus a soft Mountaineer defense who allowed 476 rushing yards to Baylor. The Mountaineers have been fortunate this season to go up against teams struggling on the ground, such as the likes of Maryland, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Other than against Baylor, they’ve also had problems versus the solid ground game of Oklahoma, allowing them 316 yards. Over their last three games, West Virginia has allowed an alarming average of 393.3 yards per game passing. The Wildcats should be able to take full advantage. Other than Lockett and Thompson, they also have receiver Curry Sexton (21 catches for 189 yards) and fullback Glenn Gronkowski (3 catches for 119 yards and 2 TDs). You may have heard of his brother Rob, who plays for the Patriots. Mountaineer QB Clint Trickett has struggled with accuracy, with just 48.8% completions, and has just 3 TDs versus 3 picks. The Mountaineer ground game has averaged just 120.5 yards over their past four games, and should struggle here versus a Wildcat defensive front that allowed just 109 yards rushing to the dominant Baylor Bears. The Wildcats should put up a solid effort at home versus the Mountaineers this week, with Sams and Waters at QB, back Hubert and their top receivers Lockett and Thompson.



WILDCATS 35-17 (3 Units)

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Harry Bondi

4* Nebraska

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Philly GodFather adds

•STRAIGHT BET [171] WYOMING +10½-105 200:
•STRAIGHT BET [142] TEXAS A&M -17-105: