10-27-13

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Winning Points (The Newsletter)

4* Detroit 38-17
3* Atlanta 31-16
2* San Fran 33-6
2* Cleveland 17-14

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Sports Reporter ( The Newsletter )

Best Bet: New Orleans 41-17
Best Bet: Atlanta 27-17

Recommended: Cincy 29-14

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Hilton Contest

Top Contestant
(25-9-1): Cincy / Pitt / Wash / Minny / Seattle

Last Place Contestant (minimum of 35 selections)
(7-28): Dallas / New England / NY Jets / Atlanta / Minny

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DALLAS VS. DETROIT
October 27, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: top bet @ -3 -115 Detroit
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 1:00 PM

I'm playing on DETROIT. Off a loss vs. Cincinnati, their second in the last three games, the Lions know they can't afford another loss. Not if they want to keep up in the competitive NFC North. That's particularly true given that they've got back-to-back road games on deck. I expect them to bring their "A Game."
*
The Lions are outgaining teams by a 430 to 389.3 average margin here at Detroit, outscoring them 32.7 to 27.7.*
*
The Lions are 4-2 ATS when laying points this season. Over the past couple of seasons, they've gone 2-1 ATS as home favorites of three or fewer points and 7-4 ATS in the month of October.*
*
The Cowboys, who are being outgained by an average margin of 365.7 to 334.3 on the road, are off back-to-back double-digits victories and three straight covers.*Note that the Cowboys, who may be ripe for a letdown after the big division wins, are*only 1-6 ATS the last seven times that they were off two or more consecutive victories, 4-8 ATS off a division game.*
*
Also, note that the Cowboys will be playing the second of back-to-back road games for the first time this season.*Last season, the only time that they won the front-end of back-to-back road games, they followed it up by losing 27-7 in the back-end. (The two times that they lost the front-end of b2b road games, they won the back-end.)*
*
I look for the Lions to finish on top, covering the small number along the way. 9*
N.Y. JETS VS. CINCINNATI
October 27, 2013 - 4:05 PM

Pick: sbgglobal @ -6.5 -110 Cincinnati
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 4:05 PM

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. I won with the Jets last week when they upset the Patriots. They're on the road now though, facing a surging Bengals team which has won three straight. I expect them to receive a reality check.*
*
Note that the Jets lost 38-13 when off their previous division win. They're 2-4 ATS in that situation the past couple of seasons.*
*
The Bengals are undefeated here. Not only did they beat the hated Steelers (a team which just beat the Jets by double-digits a couple of weeks ago) but the Bengals also beat the Patriots and the Packers here. Needless to say, they won't be intimidated by the Jets.*
*
The Bengals outscore teams by a 22.3 to 15.3 average margin here. The Jets are being outscored by an average margin of 26.3 to 17.7 on the road.*
*
The Jets are 1-3 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. During the same stretch, the Bengals are 4-1 ATS as home favorites*in the 3.5 to 7 range. I expect them to improve on those stats in convincing fashion Sunday afternoon. *9*
N.Y. GIANTS VS. PHILADELPHIA
October 27, 2013 - 1:00 PM

Pick: sportsinteraction @ -6 -105 Philadelphia
Expert: Ben Burns
Evaluation: Oct 27 - 1:00 PM

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Giants are off back-to-back covers and finally got themselves a victory. They've still some serious problems though and I expect them to come back down to earth on Sunday.*
*
These teams met at NY a few weeks ago. The Eagles won by 15 points, 36-21. They had a 140-53 edge on the ground.*
*
Sure, the Giants will be motivated to avenge the earlier loss and to snap their 8-game road losing streak. However, with an 0-3 mark at home, 0-9 since last season, the Eagles should be every bit as motivated to finally deliver the Philly faithful a victory. Also, while the playoffs are extremely unlikely for the Giants, they're still very much a possibility for the Eagles.*
*
While they won as favorites in their last game, the Giants are 1-4 ATS as underdogs, 0-1 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.*
*
Vick, who is 4-2 as a starter against the Giants, while with Philly is back. He had this to say:*"I've pretty much set my mind to play the way I want to play," he said. "I'm giving it everything I got. No holding back. I don't want to play that way."
*
I expect a win and cover for the home team. 9*

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Scott Ferrall paid picks

Miami

NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ (1)



SAN FRANCISCO -16 ½ (2)

Jacksonville



Cleveland

KANSAS CITY -7 (3)



Buffalo

NEW ORLEANS -11 ½ (4)



DALLAS +3 (5)

Detroit



Jets

CINCINNATI -6 ½ (6)

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MTI's Three Team Teaser Of The Week


Your Selection

MTi's 3-team, 10-point teaser
4-Star New Orleans -2, Pittsburgh +7.5, Cincinnati +3.5

MTI'S Two Team Teaser Of The Week


Your Selection

MTi's 2-team, 6-point teasers
4.5-Star Falcons +8.5, NY Giants +11.5

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Gold Sheet (The Newsletter)
( Top Plays: 5-15 ATS )

New Orleans by 24 (39-15)
Arizona by 14 (30-16)
Over the Total NE vs Miami (NE 34 / Miami 23) 57 pts

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Teddy Covers
20* New York Giants +5
10* Miami +6.5
10* Atlanta +2.5

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Colin Cowherd;

( BLAZING FIVE - ESPN RADIO SHOW )

Jets +6'

Vikings +9

Falcons +2' "BEST BET ON SUNDAY"

Patriots -6'

Steelers -2'

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CKO

10 SAN FRANCISCO over Jacksonville
Late Score Forecast:
SAN FRANCISCO 34 - Jacksonville 9

Go-with vs. go-against, as San Francisco has just about regained last season’s Super Bowl form, with fourstraight wins, all covers. After two straight losses, HC Jim Harbaugh has smartly returned the offense to its
formerly successful ground-and-pound style, with workhorse RB Frank Gore leading the way with 405 YR in the
last four games. With ball-control re-established, QB Colin Kaepernick has 5 TDs vs. only 1 interception in the
quartet, during which the Niners have topped the 30 mark each time. Thirty seems like a month’s worth of points
for the poor Jaguars, who have been held to single digits four times and have lost every game—save one—by at
least 14 points. Opponents have successfully been zeroing in on RB Maurice Jones-Drew, who’s gaining barely
3 ypc, putting the team in repeated poor down-and-distance situations. Niners can’t afford any letdown if they
are to catch Seattle in the NFC West.

NINE-RATED GAMES:
WASHINGTON (+13; est.) at Denver [NFL]—Now that Indy has proven the Broncos are “human,” the Redskins’ improving offense should keep Mike Shanahan within shouting distance in his return to Mile High.


TOTALS:
OVER (51) in the Buffalo-New Orleans Game—A couple of Thad Lewis mistakes in the Superdome will help Drew Brees put this one “over;” Bills “over” every road game so far...
UNDER (40½) in the Pittsburgh-Oakland Game—Steeler defense (11 ppg last two) is back; Raiders 11-2 “under” last 13.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA
Play Against - Home favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (PHILADELPHIA) after having won 2 out of their last 3 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a losing team
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

NFL PITTSBURGH at OAKLAND
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the money line (OAKLAND) off a loss against a division rival against opponent off an extremely close win by 3 points or less over a division rival
83-23 since 1997. ( 78.3% 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

NFL ATLANTA at ARIZONA
Play Over - Any team where the first half total is between 21.5 and 24.5 in a game involving two poor rushing teams (70-95 RY/game), after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL SAN FRANCISCO at JACKSONVILLE
Play Over - Any team where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points terrible rushing team (<=70 RY/game) against a team with an average rushing defense (95-125 RY/game)
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFBy COVERS.COM STAFF

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys are riding a two-game winning streak and starting to put up some impressive defensive numbers to go along with Tony Romo and the offense. That passing defense will get a workout on Sunday when the Cowboys visit Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson and the Detroit Lions. The Lions are sixth in the NFL in passing at an average of 304.1 yards but are giving up nearly as many yards in the secondary.

Dallas’ defense got a wake-up call in a 51-48 loss to the Denver Broncos on Oct. 6 and has been a different unit since, holding its last two opponents to a total of 19 points. The Cowboys are beginning their defensive turnaround without a few big names on the line and could be without end DeMarcus Ware (strained right quad) for a second straight game on Sunday. Detroit dropped two of its last three games and suffered its first home loss against Cincinnati last week.

LINE: Detroit has held steady as a three-point favorite. The total opened at 51.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-4.0) - Detroit (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Lions are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games against the NFC.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 38.5)

The Kansas City Chiefs look to remain the only undefeated team in the NFL when they host the slumping Cleveland Browns on Sunday. Kansas City maintained its unblemished record when it eked out a 17-16 home victory over the Houston Texans last week. One key to the Chiefs' perfect mark is their stingy defense, which has allowed a league-low 81 points and hasn't yielded more than 17 in a game.

Cleveland attempts to halt its two-game skid, as well as Kansas City's remarkable run, behind a new quarterback. With Brian Hoyer out for the season with a knee injury and Brandon Weeden fizzling, the Browns turn to Jason Campbell. After winning three straight to become one of the NFL's surprise teams through five weeks, Cleveland has lost contests against Detroit and Green Bay by a combined 62-30.
LINE: K.C. opened as a 9.5-point fave. The total opened at 39 and is down to 38.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+4.5) + Kansas City (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Kansas City -12
TRENDS:

* Browns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
* Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
* Under is 18-7-1 in Cleveland's last 26 games on grass.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6.5, 45.5)

The Miami Dolphins won their first three games of the season to present themselves as a serious challenger to the New England Patriots in the AFC East. After losing their next three contests, the Dolphins look to remain within earshot of the division-leading Patriots on Sunday when the teams meet in Foxborough, Mass. Dan Carpenter burned his former team by drilling the go-ahead field goal with 33 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter as Buffalo rallied to a 23-21 victory over Miami last weekend.

New England fell to an AFC East rival for the first time in 13 meetings as the New York Jets spoiled the return of Rob Gronkowski en route to a 30-27 overtime decision last week. After stringing together touchdown passes in 52 consecutive games, Tom Brady failed to throw one for the second time in three weeks - although he connected with his Pro Bowl tight end eight times for 114 yards.

LINE: The Pats opened as 7-point faves are are now -6.5. The total opened at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+1.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = New England -9
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 Week 8 games.
* Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games vs. the AFC.
* Under is 5-1 in the Dolphins' last six games against the AFC East.

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (-11, 48)

After a week off, the New Orleans Saints look to rebound from their first loss of the season when they host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday. It's a homecoming for former Saints offensive coordinator Doug Marrone, whose Bills snapped a six-game road losing streak with a 23-21 win at Miami last week and seek back-to-back wins away from home for the first time since 2009.

The Saints have won three games by eight points or fewer but ended up on the wrong end of a 30-27 decision at New England last time out and are wary of a Buffalo team that been competitive in every game.
LINE: The Saints opened as 12.5-point faves but are now -11. The total opened at 50 and is down to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+4.5) - New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = New Orleans -13.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week.
* Over is 14-3 in Buffalo's last 17 games on turf.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 50.5)

Unless the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants play to a tie on Sunday - and given the NFC East this season, anything is possible - a long losing streak is going to end this weekend. The Eagles have not won a home game since defeating the Giants on Sept. 30, 2012, losing nine straight at Lincoln Financial Field. Meanwhile, New York has not won a road game since Oct. 14, 2012, at San Francisco, dropping eight in a row away from MetLife Stadium.

The Giants notched their first win of the season Monday night versus the Vikings and now they will try to win back-to-back games for the first time since going 4-0 in October 2012.

LINE: The Eagles opened as 5.5-point faves and are now -5. The total opened at 53 and is down to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.0) - Philadelphia (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Philadelphia -6
TRENDS:

* Bills are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a SU win.
* Saints are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 6-0 in New Orleans' last six games following a bye week.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)

Game played at Wembley Stadium in London, England.

The San Francisco 49ers look to carry their hot streak overseas when they take on the winless Jacksonville Jaguars at London's Wembley Stadium on Sunday. Since an ugly 20-point loss at home to Indianapolis on Sept. 22, the 49ers have won four straight by an average of 20.3 points. The league's third-ranked rushing attack rolled up 153 yards on the ground in a 31-17 win at Tennessee last Sunday, San Francisco's fourth straight game with at least 30 points.

The 49ers defeated Denver 24-16 at Wembley on Oct. 31, 2010. Jacksonville is making its first overseas appearance and has agreed to play a home game in London every year through 2016. The Jaguars, who allow 26.2 more rushing yards than any other team in the NFL, ran their losing streak over the past two seasons to 12 with a 24-6 loss to San Diego last Sunday.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 17-point favorites but are now -14.5. The total opened 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind will blow diagonally across the field at 16 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + neutral site (0) = Jacksonville +14.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
* Jaguars are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games against teams with winning records.
* Over is 8-2 in San Francisco's last 10 games following a SU win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sunday's NFL Week 8 betting cheat sheet: Late action

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

The Pittsburgh Steelers are still picking up the pieces after an 0-4 start but appear to be headed in the right direction with wins in the last two contests. The Steelers will attempt to make it three straight when they visit the Oakland Raiders on Sunday. The Raiders are coming off a bye week and are a much better team at home, where they have taken two of their first three games.

Pittsburgh won a defensive slugfest against rival Baltimore last week and got some positive contributions from the running game, which had been a big area of concern. Rookie Le’Veon Bell ran for a season-high 93 yards on nearly five yards per carry but could be in for a tougher road against an Oakland run defense that ranks 10th in the league in average yardage allowed.

LINE: The Raiders opened as 3-point home dogs and are now +1.The total opened 40.5 and is now 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies and wind blowing across the field at 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (+2.5) - Oakland (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 1-5 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Raiders are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 7-0 in Oakland's last seven home games.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 41)

The Cincinnati Bengals seek their fourth consecutive win and also to maintain their hold on first place in the AFC North when they host the New York Jets on Sunday. Cincinnati’s victories have been by a combined 13 points during a hot streak that has led to a two-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns. The Jets are one game behind New England in the AFC East after beating the Patriots last weekend.

New York quarterback Geno Smith is the first rookie since the 1970 merger with four game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime through his first seven career games. He has been prone to consistency issues and has just eight touchdowns against 11 interceptions.

LINE: The Bengals opened -6.5 and are now -6. The total opened at 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cincinnati -8.5
TRENDS:

* Jets are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in Week 8.
* Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games vs. the AFC.
* The under is 9-1 in Cincinnati's last 10 games against the AFC.

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-1, 46)

A pair of teams scrambling to stay in the periphery of the NFC playoff picture square off Sunday in the desert when the Arizona Cardinals host the Atlanta Falcons. Injuries have hampered the Falcons in their NFC South title defense, but they could have a key offensive player back this week as running back Steven Jackson returned to practice Wednesday after missing four games with a hamstring injury.

The Cardinals were unable to dig out of a 14-0 hole last week in a 34-22 loss to division-leading Seattle, dropping their second straight game following a modest two-game win streak. The Falcons have won two straight meetings and six of the last seven, including a 23-19 victory in Atlanta last season.

LINE: The Cardinals opened -2.5 and are now -1. The total opened at 44.5 and is up to 46.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+1.0) + Arizona (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Arizona -0.5
TRENDS:

* Falcons are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 games against teams with losing records.
* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss.
* Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)

Peyton Manning has built a reputation for his legendary preparedness, but he will be in somewhat unfamiliar territory when the Denver Broncos look to rebound from their first loss in more than a year against the visiting Washington Redskins on Sunday. The Broncos were upended at Indianapolis 39-33 last week to snap a franchise-record 17-game winning streak dating to Oct. 7, 2012. The defeat also dropped Denver one game behind first-place Kansas City in the AFC West.

The Redskins are trying to dig themselves out of a hole for the second straight season, winning for the second time in three games after prevailing in a wild 45-41 shootout with Chicago last week. It marked a season high in points allowed by Washington, which has surrendered more than 30 four times and is yielding an averaging of 30.7 per contest.

LINE: The Broncos opened -14 and are now -11. The total opened at 56.5 and is up to 58.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s. Wind will blow toward the N end zone at 4 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+1.5) - Denver (-8.0) - home field (-3.0) = Denver -12.5

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after scoring 30 or more points in their previous game.
* Broncos are 5-1 ATS vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 13-3 in Denver's previous 16 October games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5, 40.5)
From London, England

Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 17 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5, 38.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 7 mph.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-6, 45.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 50.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph.

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 41)

Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-11, 58.5)

Temperatures will be in the high-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 4 mph.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 8
By JASON LOGAN

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 8:

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos (-13, 58.5)

Redskins’ poor punting vs. Broncos’ field position

Washington’s special teams have been anything but, especially on punts. The Redskins rank dead last with an average of 42.1 yards per punt and is allowing opponents to run back those boots for 21.6 yards per return – another league worst. Washington has watched two punts returned for six points, most recently to Chicago’s Devin Hester last Sunday, and had one punt blocked for a score versus the Raiders.

Giving the Broncos great field position is like loading the guns for your firing squad. Denver doesn’t need much help moving the chains, and has one of the better return teams in the NFL. Speedster Trindon Holliday already has a punt return TD this year, with Denver ranked sixth in punt returns. That’s helped give Peyton Manning an average starting field position of 29.06 yards.

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3, 51)

Cowboys’ terrible third downs vs. Lions’ third-down defense

Dallas has one of the most explosive offenses in the league but has watched that attack stall on third downs. The Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack for third-down conversion percentage (37.5%) on the season, but were dismal on third down last week versus Philadelphia. Tony Romo & Co. went just 5-for-16 on third down and punted the ball away nine times. Dallas has had trouble moving the chains on third downs away from Big D, posting a 30.56 percent third-down conversion rate on the road – fourth lowest in the NFL.

Detroit has limited its foes to just 3.7 third-down conversions per game this season, which ranks second lowest in the league. The Lions defense is holding opponents to a 29.89 percent success rate on those third downs, trimming that to a NFL-low 21.21 percent inside Ford Field. The Lions have forced teams to kick 2.7 field goals per game, which also ranks among the NFL elite.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+1, 40)

Steelers’ cross-country hike vs. Raiders’ rush-heavy attack

Pittsburgh is coming off a grueling battle with the rival Ravens in Week 7, stacking up a long list of injuries, and now must travel across the map to take on the Raiders. Not only are the Steelers limping into the weekend but they haven’t fared well when making the cross-country trek. Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five trips out west (losses at San Francisco, Houston, Oakland and Denver) and was knocked off by the Raiders, 34-31, in Oakland last season.

The Raiders have fresh legs coming off the bye week and will look to pound a tired Pittsburgh defense with their ninth-ranked rushing attack. On top of dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor, who has scrambled for 285 yards, the Steelers will have to contain RB Darren McFadden, who gashed them for 113 yards and a score last season. Pittsburgh's run stop unit is not as strong as past years, allowing foes to rush for an average of 109.3 yards per game.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9.5, 47)

Packers’ run defense vs. Vikings’ RB Adrian Peterson

Rarely do we have Peterson on this side of the mismatch. Usually “All Day” is exploiting a mushy run defense in our weekly feature. However, with everything going on off the field and the Vikings’ QB woes on it, Peterson hasn’t come near the numbers of 2012. In his last two efforts, he’s mustered a total of 90 yards on 23 carries – an average of 3.91 yards per attempt. That’s below his season average of 4.4. Along with an understandable lack of focus following the death of his son, Peterson is nursing a sore hamstring and missed practice this week.

Green Bay knows what’s coming Sunday. With Minnesota playing musical chairs under center, the Packers can almost forget the passing game and focus solely on stopping Peterson. The Cheese Heads are undergoing a defensive renaissance this fall and boast the third toughest rushing defense in the NFL. Teams are picking up only three yards per carry in the Packers last three games and Green Bay has faced some reputable rushing attacks this season.