10-28-13

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Sean Higgs

10* Seattle Seahawks

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THE GOLD SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
*Seattle 31 - ST. LOUIS 16—After watching Russell Wilson (11 TDs, only
4 ints., 323 YR TY) dismantle the quality Arizona defense last week, one
wonders how much more he can improve. One area worth attention is his five
fumbles, two of which set up easy points last week for Arizona. He’s likely to
correct that this week vs. the Rams, who might be without QB Sam Bradford
(knee last week; check status). St. Louis beat Seattle on this field LY, and later
hung tough at CenturyLink. However, with RB Marshawn Lynch well-rested and
in full “beast mode” lately, and with Pete Carroll’s defensive front getting
healthy, can’t feel good about recommending the Rams, especially if it’s Kellen
Clemens at QB. CABLE TV—ESPN

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE
PRO FOOTBALL
Seattle over ST. LOUIS by 14
Oh, oh. Forgive the pundits who insist this looks to be a Monday Night massacre but with star Rams QB Sam Bradford done for the season
(ACL), and his backup Kellen Clemens now under center, our best guess
is this number will likely run into another stratosphere before kickoff.
After all, Clemens’ last three starts in the NFL were losses in 2011 with
the Rams as he is now 4-8 as a starter in this league with 7 TDs and 13
INTS while completing just 51.8 percent of his passes. Yes, St. Louis is a
stout 8-0 ATS in games against .666 or greater opposition off a win, but
they are also 0-4 ATS on Monday and 3-12 ATS as division home dogs of
4 or more points. And speaking of Monday night division home dogs,
there have been only three of them in the history of our database that
took 11 or more points. All three lost the money while scoring just 19
points combined. However, with the surging Seahawks 4-0 ATS in their
last four Monday night appearances, there is really only one way to
look here, and it’s not to the Arch.

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POINTWISE
PROFESSIONAL
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
Seattle 34 - ST LOUIS 17 - (8:40 - ESPN) -- Sky seems the limit for Seahawks,
who shook off pair of ATS setbacks (1-1 SU), with dominating win at Arizona. Wilson: 3/0 (11/4 for the season), & Lynch now at 578 yds. One up on Niners, &
on an impressive 28-9-1 ATS run, with a 413-208 pt edge in their last 13 outings.
Rams won 19-13 here LY, but that was prior to Seattle's super run. StLouis: from
36 ppg in its previous 2 games to 15 at Carolina, & now there is major concern
over Bradford's knee. Up-&-coming powers usually shine on MondayNight, &
Seahawks are 7-1 ATS as DD chalks. We buck Monday home division dog here

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POWER PLAYS
PRO FOOTBALL
SEATTLE vs ST LOUIS
The Rams lost Sam Bradford (torn left ACL) for the year and will be turning to Kellen Clemens who
hasn’t started a game since Bradford was hurt in 2011 avg 182 ypg (53%) with a 2-1 ratio albeit
at the end of the year with a roster that finished 2-14. Without knowing how much the line will rise over the course of the week and seeing what
adjustments Fisher will make this is a No Play.

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POWERSWEEP
PRO FOOTBALL
Seattle at St Louis
The Seahawks came into this season 0-4 as an AF under Carroll while the Rams finished last
season covering 6 straight as a dog. The opposite holds true this season as STL is 1-4 ATS as a
dog while SEA is 3-1 ATS as an AF. As we often see when a team is becoming elite they pay the
price of inflated lines and Seattle has won exactly ONE road game by over 6 points and that was
last Thursday on another div road game were they were out FD’d. Can the Rams pull a second
straight upset at home vs the Seahawks?

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WINNING POINTS
PRO FOOTBALL
Seattle over *St. Louis by 11
St. Louis' 3-4 record may look semi-respectable, but its victories have come against
the Cardinals, Jaguars and Texans. The combined ATS record of those teams is 5-
15. The Seahawks have been as good as advertised. Jeff Fisher should have the
Rams at a fever pitch for this nationally televised division matchup, but is facing a
severe handicap with backup quarterback Kellen Clemens against Seattle's No. 2
ranked defense. The Rams defeated the Seahawks at home last year. They'll need a
career performance from running back Zac Stacy to repeat that upset. Fisher's
teams historically have done well in a 'dog role, but the Rams are 1-4 ATS when
taking points this season. SEATTLE 27-16.
HISTORICAL TRENDS
Seattle at St. Louis – The teams split last season with the Rams winning 19-13 at home and
losing 20-13 on the road. The under has cashed in five of the last six meetings

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

SEATTLE (231) AT ST. LOUIS (232)
Latest Line: ST. LOUIS +11.0; Total: 43.0

The Rams start life without QB Sam Bradford (torn ACL) when they host the Seahawks in divisional play on Monday night. Seattle has forced 2+ turnovers in all seven games this year and has held opponents to 229 total YPG during a two-game win streak. QB Kellen Clemens takes over for Bradford looking to improve on a 4-8 career record as a starter where he's completed only 52.6% of his passes with 7 TD and 9 INT. Seahawks QB Russell Wilson has 262 total YPG, 9 passing TD and just 3 INT in his past five games. Although the teams split last year, Seattle is a dominant 14-2 SU (11-5 ATS) in this series since 2005.
Forecaster: Seattle 28, St. Louis 17

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Matt Rivers
500K
St Louis Cardinals

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Ats Insiders Club

Seattle /St. Louis over 43.5

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Northcoast
2* Seattle
marquee Over

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Where the action is: Books "made a big mistake" with MNF line

The NFC West is featured in the Week 8 finale, with the shorthanded St. Louis Rams hosting the Seattle Seahawks on Monday Night Football. We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds could end up by kickoff:

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams – Open: +10.5, Move: +14

The Rams were going to be sizable home underdogs to the Seahawks before QB Sam Bradford was lost for the season. But without their top offensive weapons, bettors piled on the road team and have pushed this spread as many as 3.5 points.

Books admit that they underestimated just how much this line would swing and have themselves in a tough spot, rooting for a punchless St. Louis side to bail them out after a terrible Week 8 in which favorites are already 8-4 ATS.

Stewart notes that all three of Sunday’s double-digit favorites went 3-0 ATS and also played Over the total, capped off by Green Bay’s win over Minnesota in the Sunday night game. With that in mind, CarbonSports.ag, pushed the line past -13.5 and “can't stop the bleeding nor the Seahawks support” with the spread at the key number of Seattle -14.

“We won't be going any higher than that because we just can't risk getting middled,” Stewart tells Covers. “We're already opening ourselves up by going to 14, but at this point we had to because the liability is just that severe. Bottom line: We made a big mistake with our opening number as this game should have been opened Seahawks -13. Regardless, every bookmaker in the world is rooting for the Rams tonight.”

As for Monday’s total, the number opened at 42 and has been moved to 43.5 with action on the Over. The public loves to play the Over in standalone games and is banking on Week 8’s 8-4 O/U record heading into Monday’s finale.

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Today's Best Bets

5* Seattle -12.5

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Winning Angle Sports

Seahawks -11.5

Red Sox +120

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Baseball's best Under ump behind home plate for Game 5

Umpire Bill Miller will be behind home plate for Game 5 of the World Series in St. Louis Monday night, putting MLB totals bettors on red alert.

Miller is among the best Under umps in the majors this season, with his games going 10-24 O/U during the regular season – a winning percentage of 70.5 for the Under in those contests.

Last season, Miller’s games as home ump posted a 13-20 O/U record and going back to 2008, Miller has produced a 75-124 O/U count (62% Unders) when set as the home plate umpire.

While Miller’s lone 2013 postseason game calling the balls and strikes topped the total, the 16-year veteran ump is 20-42 O/U in his last 62 games as home plate ump. Miller is also 17-36 O/U in his last 53 interleague contests behind home.

Monday’s total for Game 5 is set at 7 runs, with ace pitchers Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright taking the mound. During the regular season, games with totals of seven or less runs went 3-8 O/U when Miller was making the calls. The Under is a perfect 4-0 in the last four starts for Lester with Miller behind home plate.