11-2-13

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NCAA Football Game Picks

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 315-316: Clemson at Virginia (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 106.294; Virginia 81.708 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 24 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Clemson by 16 1/2; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-16 1/2); Over

Game 317-318: Virginia Tech at Boston College (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 92.036; Boston College 90.841 Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 1; 37 Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 5; 41 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+5); Under

Game 319-320: Eastern Michigan at Toledo (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Michigan 55.075; Toledo 87.956 Dunkel Line: Toledo by 33; 63 Vegas Line: Toledo by 30 1/2; 67 Dunkel Pick: Toledo (-30 1/2); Under

Game 321-322: Northern Illinois at Massachusetts (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 87.298; Massachusetts 66.599 Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 20 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 24; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+24); Over

Game 323-324: Kent State at Akron (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 77.701 Akron 71.628 Dunkel Line: Kent State by 6; 56 Vegas Line: Akron by 1; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kent State (+1); Over

Game 325-326: Temple at Rutgers (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Temple 67.956; Rutgers 88.997 Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 21; 51 Vegas Line: Rutgers by 13 1/2; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-13 1/2); Under

Game 327-328: Illinois at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 81.451; Penn State 97.026 Dunkel Line: Penn State by 15 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: Penn State by 10; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-10); Under

Game 329-330: Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 87.179; Georgia Tech 94.099 Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 7; 58 Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 9 1/2; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+9 1/2); Over

Game 331-332: Wake Forest at Syracuse (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wake Forest 88.724; Syracuse 84.549 Dunkel Line: Wake Forest by 4; 57 Vegas Line: Syracuse by 3 1/2; 51 Dunkel Pick: Wake Forest (+3 1/2); Over

Game 333-334: Western Kentucky at Georgia State (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 81.042; Georgia State 59.695 Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 21 1/2; 50 Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 19 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-19 1/2); Under

Game 335-336: Tennessee at Missouri (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 94.882; Missouri 103.730 Dunkel Line: Missouri by 9; 61 Vegas Line: Missouri by 12 1/2; 55 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+12 1/2); Over

Game 337-338: Iowa State at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 77.681; Kansas State 100.100 Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 22 1/2; 46 Vegas Line: Kansas State by 16 1/2; 51 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-16 1/2); Under

Game 339-340: Southern Mississippi at Marshall (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 59.028; Marshall 82.383 Dunkel Line: Marshall by 23 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Marshall by 30; 59 Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+30); Under

Game 341-342: UTEP at Texas A&M (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 61.177; Texas A&M 110.308 Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 49; 80 Vegas Line: Texas A&M by 45 1/2; 76 Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (-45 1/2); Over

Game 343-344: Middle Tennessee State at UAB (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 75.681; UAB 66.373 Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 9 1/2; 58 Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 4 1/2; 62 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-4 1/2); Under

Game 345-346: TX-San Antonio at Tulsa (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 76.694; Tulsa 76.504 Dunkel Line: Even; 56 Vegas Line: Tulsa by 3; 53 1/2 Dunkel Pick: TX-San Antonio (+3); Over

Game 347-348: Army at Air Force (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Army 73.966; Air Force 71.205 Dunkel Line: Army by 3; 66 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 349-350: West Virginia at TCU (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 87.447; TCU 91.950 Dunkel Line: TCU by 4 1/2; 42 Vegas Line: TCU by 13 1/2; 45 1/2 Dunkel Pick: West Virginia (+13 1/2); Under

Game 351-352: Georgia vs. Florida (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 103.212; Florida 98.244 Dunkel Line: Georgia by 5; 43 Vegas Line: Georgia by 2 1/2; 47 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-2 1/2); Under

Game 353-354: Arizona at California (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 98.762; California 79.475 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 19 1/2; 72 Vegas Line: Arizona by 16; 65 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-16); Over

Game 355-356: Miami (FL) at Florida State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 100.326; Florida State 118.508 Dunkel Line: Florida State by 18; 65 Vegas Line: Florida State by 22; 61 Dunkel Pick: Miami (FL) (+22); Over

Game 357-358: Wisconsin at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 107.646; Iowa 93.798 Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 14; 44 Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 9 1/2; 48 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-9 1/2); Under

Game 359-360: Michigan at Michigan State (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 98.853; Michigan State 99.771 Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1; 41 Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+6); Under

Game 361-362: Ohio State at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 112.081; Purdue 75.052 Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 37; 60 Vegas Line: Ohio State by 31; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (-31); Over

Game 363-364: Minnesota at Indiana (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 93.116; Indiana 93.504 Dunkel Line: Even; 72 Vegas Line: Indiana by 9 1/2; 66 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+9 1/2); Over

Game 365-366: Colorado at UCLA (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 71.431; UCLA 109.117 Dunkel Line: UCLA by 37 1/2; 52 Vegas Line: UCLA by 27; 56 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-27); Under

Game 367-368: Navy at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Navy 76.115; Notre Dame 103.267 Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 27; 45 Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 16 1/2; 49 Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (-16 1/2); Under

Game 369-370: Auburn at Arkansas (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Auburn 96.499; Arkansas 90.709 Dunkel Line: Auburn by 6; 59 Vegas Line: Auburn by 9; 54 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas (+9); Over

Game 371-372: Northwestern at Nebraska (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Northwestern 87.005; Nebraska 105.644 Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 18 1/2; 55 Vegas Line: Nebraska by 7 1/2; 58 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-7 1/2); Under

Game 373-374: Arkansas State at South Alabama (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arkansas State 73.301; South Alabama 74.368 Dunkel Line: South Alabama by 1; 67 Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3 1/2; 63 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+3 1/2); Over

Game 375-376: Hawaii at Utah State (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 70.580; Utah State 97.594 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 27; 48 Vegas Line: Utah State by 22 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-22 1/2); Under

Game 377-378: San Jose State at UNLV (4:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 79.120; UNLV 78.746 Dunkel Line: Even; 73 Vegas Line: San Jose State by 3 1/2; 66 Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+3 1/2); Over

Game 379-380: New Mexico State at UL-Lafayette (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 52.039; UL-Lafayette 92.563 Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 40 1/2; 62 Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 31; 65 1/2 Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-31); Under

Game 381-382: Texas State at Idaho (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 70.318; Idaho 61.654 Dunkel Line: Texas State by 8 1/2; 54 Vegas Line: Texas State by 10; 50 Dunkel Pick: Idaho (+10); Over

Game 383-384: North Carolina at North Carolina State (12:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 91.511; North Carolina State 83.436 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 8; 52 Vegas Line: North Carolina by 3; 57 Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (-3); Under

Game 385-386: Kansas at Texas (3:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 76.786; Texas 93.702 Dunkel Line: Texas by 17; 57 Vegas Line: Texas by 28; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+28); Over

Game 387-388: Tulane at Florida Atlantic (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tulane 82.226; Florida Atlantic 78.064 Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4; 42 Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 4; 46 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Tulane (+4); Under

Game 389-390: Oklahoma State at Texas Tech (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 100.974; Texas Tech 99.089 Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 2; 73 Vegas Line: Texas Tech by 2 1/2; 66 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+2 1/2); Over

Game 391-392: East Carolina at Florida International (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 91.747; Florida International 59.469 Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 32 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: East Carolina by 22 1/2; 52 1/2 Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-22 1/2); Under

Game 393-394: Nevada at Fresno State (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 76.194; Fresno State 93.324 Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 17; 77 Vegas Line: Fresno State by 21; 73 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+21); Over

Game 395-396: Mississippi State at South Carolina (12:21 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 90.137; South Carolina 108.229 Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 18; 47 Vegas Line: South Carolina by 13; 52 Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-13); Under

Game 397-398: Boise State at Colorado State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 93.928; Colorado State 89.984 Dunkel Line: Boise State by 4; 64 Vegas Line: Boise State by 7 1/2; 59 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 399-400: New Mexico at San Diego State (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 74.448; San Diego State 79.473 Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 5; 57 Vegas Line: San Diego State by 14 1/2; 53 Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+14 1/2); Over

OTHER MAJOR GAMES: Time Posted: 5:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 431-432: Alabama State at Kentucky (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Alabama State 56.706; Kentucky 85.773 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 29 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NCAAF

Tennessee Volunteers at Missouri Tigers (-11)

The love affair with Missouri seems to be over.

Following the Tigers’ first loss of the season to South Carolina in overtime last week, oddsmakers are discounting Mizzou versus Tennessee at home in Week 10. Books are dealing the Tigers as 11-point home favorites, which actually came down from as high as -13 at some markets. Missouri is a fourth-quarter collapse away from being undefeated and takes on a Vols side facing some uncertainty under center.

Tennessee QB Justin Worley re-aggravated a hand injury in last weekend’s loss to Alabama, turning the offense over to true freshman Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs went 5-for-12 for 75 yards and added 19 yards on the ground against the defending national champs.

With Worley listed as day-to-day, it looks more likely that Dobbs could get the nod against a pissed off Missouri program, which leads the SEC in sacks with 25 on the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Beyond the BCS: Capping college football's small conferences
By DOC'S SPORTS

Some of the best betting value in college football is hiding beyond the BCS, in the small conferences. Each week, Covers Experts’ Doc’s Sports will look at the little programs that could help you make big cash this college season.

Team to watch: Toledo Rockets (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS)

This week: -28.5 vs. Eastern Michigan

Toledo hosts Eastern Michigan Saturday and all trends point to a convincing win and cover for the Rockets. They have won six in a row in the head-to-head series between the two MAC rivals and they are 5-1 ATS in those six.

Eastern Michigan is 1-7 overall and 1-7 ATS so far this season. The Eagles have lost seven consecutive games (1-6 ATS) and they are 0-5 ATS in their last five conference games, 1-4 ATS in their last five road trips, and 0-7 ATS in their last seven against teams with winning records.

This should be a great matchup for Toledo, which averages 227 rushing yards per game and is going up against an Eastern Michigan defense that is allowing more than 256 yards per outing. Rockets senior running back David Fluellen is gaining a ridiculous seven yards per run on 152 carries this year and he has scored 10 rushing touchdowns.

Team to beware: UAB Blazers (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS)

This week: +5.5 vs. Middle Tennessee

Alabama-Birmingham’s defense has been abysmal in 2013 and it may not find any joy facing a Middle Tennessee attack that heated up by exceeding the half-century mark in a 51-49 win over Marshall Thursday night.

The Blazers just gave up 52 in a 21-point loss at Texas-San Antonio. They have allowed at least 24 points in every contest this season and have surrendered at least 34 points in five of seven. Both members of MTU’s rushing duo, Jordan Parker and Reggie Whatley, have gained 100 yards in the same game twice this year - including against Marshall.

UAB is 0-4 ATS in its last four overall and 0-5 ATS in its last five against C-USA opposition. The trend may continue against an opponent that has the added benefit of coming off eight days of rest instead of the normal six.

Total team: UNLV Rebels (5-3 SU, 5-3 O/U)

This week: 67 vs. San Jose State

UNLV has scored at least 31 points four times this season and it has allowed at least 37 points four times, including more than 50 on two occasions. San Jose State, Saturday’s opponent and Mountain West foe, is averaging 40.7 points per game in its last three and it has given up at least 27 points in six consecutive contests.

UNLV’s offensive strength (185 rushing ypg) should match up nicely with SJSU’s weakness (206.4 rushing ypg allowed). The over is 7-3 in the Rebels’ last 10 home games. It is 6-1-1 in the Spartans’ last eight on the road and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight in conference.

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College football line watch: Jump on Canes later in the week
By BRUCE MARSHALL

Each week during the college football season, renowned Las Vegas wiseguy and Covers Expert Bruce Marshall looks at the NCAAF odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

San Jose State Spartans (-3) at UNLV Rebels

The latest confirmation that money moves are nothing to fear came last Saturday in the Mountain West, when the sharp money pushed San Jose State from a 7 to as high as an 11-point favorite in the 36 hours prior to kickoff of last Saturday’s game against Wyoming.

Charting such moves throughout the years indicates that this money rush to one side has no greater chance of success than any other game on the weekly card.

In fact, those with working knowledge of the Mountain West were a bit surprised to see last week’s move in Cowboys-Spartans, which was either an overreaction to Wyo’s ugly loss to rival Colorado State the previous week, or the sharp money simply continuing to invest in San Jose, which has mostly continued its recent pointspread prowess for new head coach Ron Caragher.

Fundamentally, however, there was little to separate the teams. Wyo jumped out to a quick 16-0 lead before San Jose began to chip away.

The Cowboys’ defensive deficiencies were eventually exposed in the second half after Wyo had extended its lead to 30-14 early in the 3rd quarter. The contest would become a back-and-forth affair. San Jose only held the lead for a few minutes of actual playing time and never extended the margin beyond seven points, the last time on a game-winning TD run by QB David Fales with just eight seconds remaining.

Those who kept pounding the Spartan side at the sports books would end up losing their wagers, as any late-week support for Wyo was rewarded with a win.

We mention all of this, however, because there is obviously some pro-San Jose sentiment among the money crowd that can actually move numbers. The Spartans still look like a go-with team, especially with HC Caragher now adjusting the offense back to its predominant spread looks that proved such a benefit to QB Fales last season. Fales has responded with 11 TD passes in his last three games, all SJSU wins.

As for UNLV, we still believe it is unlikely that any rush of support is due the Rebels despite their 5-3 straight-up mark that has them one win from bowl eligibility for the first time since 2000.

Though not taking anything away from UNLV’s accomplishments, and noting that a team can only play the foes placed in front of it, the Rebel victim list is still hardly a BCS lineup of foes. Faced with even modest opposition this season, UNLV has been overwhelmed. And San Jose seems closer to the Arizona and Minnesota sides that routed UNLV in September than the succession of weaklings the Rebs have beaten (mostly in hair-raising fashion) over the last month.

Money moves have a way of following the same teams, and we would not be surprised to see another round of San Jose support later this week driving the number up to near a full TD for Saturday’s game at Sam Boyd Stadium.

A bit of shopping early in the week should still be able to net Spartan backers a -3 price, which will look a lot better than what San Jose supporters might have to pay later in the week. Even 3.5, while beyond a key number, will eventually look like a good price for Spartan backers.

Spread to wait on

Miami Hurricanes (+21.5) at Florida State Seminoles

It was all one-way traffic last week at the Las Vegas sports books involving Florida State, as the Noles steadily rose from 29 to as much as 35-point favorites for the game vs. NC State.

Depending upon where one made an investment last week, FSU was either a winner or loser (or perhaps a “push”) against the number as the final score landed 49-17 in the Noles’ favor.

What is not lost upon the masses, however, is that the Wolfpack can be flattered by that scoreline, as FSU called off the dogs in the first half after racing to a 35-0 lead. If so inclined , it looked like the Noles could have scored 70 or more points.

Moreover, a 'public' side such as FSU does not necessarily need the sharp money to inflate a spread. The wagering masses and weekend participators are still likely to be in love with the Noles and will create buy pressure as the week progresses for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Doak Campbell Stadium vs. downstate Miami.

Still fresh in the memory of the masses, as it certainly was last week, was FSU’s recent 51-14 destruction of Clemson, which could contribute to another non-stop ascent of this number vs. the Canes as it did vs. the Wolfpack.

Meanwhile, Hurricane backers have likely been burned the past few weeks by Miami, which has been fortunate to escape with straight-up wins, much less spread covers, the past two weeks vs. modest ACC opposition (North Carolina and Wake Forest). And considering FSU’s 40 ppg win margin this season, you can guess which team has been scoring more style points with the masses.

There are fundamental arguments to support a case for the Canes this week, but we’re not here to make that argument, rather to just alert on where we see the line moving this week. And with the public still likely to be enamored with FSU, and sour on Miami, we expect this number to rise, though perhaps not quite as dramatically as did Noles-Wolfpack last week.

No surprise, then, if patient Hurricane backers are rewarded with a few extra points later in the week. Expect buy pressure on FSU to push this price close to the next “key number” up the chain at 24 sometime later in the week.

While Miami supporters already might believe they are getting good value on the current price, they could have a few more points of cushion later in the week.

Total to watch

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Toledo Rockets

As we have mentioned many times on these pages this season, the oddsmakers are nobody’s fool. And one thing they loathe is to continue getting beaten by the same proposition each week.

At a certain point, they can be expected to adjust spreads and totals high (or low) enough so they can at least have a better chance to split some of the action and prevent one-way traffic in the weekly numbers.

It’s beneath the surface, however, where oddsmakers have to really do their homework, and where a lowly side like Eastern Michigan can cause many a sleepless night in sports book offices.

It’s not just that the Eagles are so bad, destroyed every week and not able to hang within already-inflated imposts. But EMU’s degree of awful is also at the root of a recurring totals trend that oddsmakers are going to want to alleviate if possible in the coming weeks.

Simply, the Eagle defense is so bad (allowing 50 points or more in four of the past five games) that it is creating Over dynamics almost by itself each week.

While Mid-American Conference games, and especially totals involving its matchups, are rarely the marquee matchups of any given Saturday (or midweek night in the MAC), such trends are worrisome to bookmakers nonetheless.

Thus, we have seen some pre-emptive moves by the oddsmakers involving EMU trends, as the initial total on last week’s game vs. Northern Illinois was an aggressive 65.5 or 66, depending upon the outlet.

No matter, there was still buy pressure on the Over for Eagles-Huskies, pushing the total to 68 at most outlets before kickoff. The final result cruised over by a comfy margin in NIU’s 59-20 romp.

Despite the oddsmaker adjustment, the Eagle scorecard this season now favors Overs by a 7-1 margin, one of the nation’s most-pronounced totals trends. This week’s foe, Toledo, has routinely blasted EMU (as Rockets are designed to do, we suppose), scoring 41 or more in the last six series meetings, and 52 or more three of those last six (including 52 and 54-point bombs the past two seasons).

We are curious to see how high the oddsmakers might price the EMU-Toledo total later this week as a reverse-Baylor effect (no defense as opposed to high-scoring offense) comes into play with the Eagles.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong
By JESSE SCHULE

Each week throughout the college football season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most inderrated Top 25 team: Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

The Cowboys have won three straight over TCU, Kansas State and Iowa State and they have another big game next week against Texas Tech. Running back Desmond Roland had a big game against the Cyclones, running for 219 yards and four TDs.

Oklahoma State has really turned things around on defense, allowing opponents fewer than 20 points per game - ranking 19th in the country. That's pretty impressive for a defense that wasn't able to stop anybody last year.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Miami Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS)

The Hurricanes are still undefeated at 7-0, but they do look ripe for the picking heading into a road game versus FSU. Miami has been unimpressive in each of its last two games, barely avoiding defeat against unranked opponents (North Carolina and Wake Forest).

They came from being with last-minute scores in each of those games and the Hurricanes have trailed by double-digits in each of their last three contests. They could be in over their heads against the Seminoles on Saturday.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS)

The Irish are 6-2 with losses on the road at Michigan and versus Oklahoma at home. They will close out the season with three straight games against unranked opponents, before facing Stanford in Palo Alto in their final game of the season.

This Irish defense isn't quite what it was a year ago, but allowing just over 21 points per game is still quite respectable. A win over Navy this Saturday will likely put Notre Dame back in the Top 25.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Today's CFL Picks

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 2 Time Posted: 9:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 495-496: Hamilton at Winnipeg (2:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Hamilton 116.733; Winnipeg 106.062 Dunkel Line: Hamilton by 10 1/2; 47 Vegas Line: Hamilton by 2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Hamilton (-2); Under

Game 497-498: Edmonton at Saskatchewan (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 105.135; Saskatchewan 121.206 Dunkel Line: Saskatchewan by 16; 57 Vegas Line: Saskatchewan by 4 1/2; 52 Dunkel Pick: Saskatchewan (-4 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Odds Week 10 opening line report

Is the state of Florida the 'King of Football' once again?

One thing is for certain, Week 10 of the college football schedule will bring us a matchup to determine who the king in the Sunshine State actually is when the Miami Hurricanes visit the Florida State Seminoles.

Both of these programs boast 7-0 records but it's the Seminoles who come in as the sexier team.

Another blowout victory, this time a 49-17 triumph over North Carolina State, has the Seminoles (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) opening as huge home faves over the Hurricanes (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS).

The 'Canes keep winning, but not in the same, dominant fashion which their in-state rivals do.

They escaped Wake Forest as 24-21 victors, but were far from covering the daunting 26-point spread that oddsmakers installed.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says he and his team of oddsmakers are fully aware of the quality and talent on both sides, but sent out a big number of FSU -20 nonetheless.

"We sent out -20 but only see this number going higher. Florida State warrants it," Korner. "They're the 'it' team right now and they're looking better and better each week. Miami is good but they're facing a buzz saw this weekend."

Michigan Wolverines at Michigan State Spartans (-3.5)

Another classic in-state battle has the Michigan Wolverines (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) traveling to face the Michigan State Spartans (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS).

The visitors are coming off a bye week after putting up 63 points against offensive-oriented Indiana. It was a good bounceback game after suffering their first loss of the season to Penn State on Oct. 12.

The Spartans posted an impressive 42-3 victory over a slumping Illinois team for their fourth-straight victory.

Michigan backers have felt stung in the previous meetings between the two programs as the Wolverines are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.

"Our range went from MSU -1.5 to -4.5 and settled at -3.5," Korner says. "It's a good rivalry game in which our numbers reflect a competitive contest. Michigan State should take care of business but the hook may grab some dog players early in the week."

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Florida Gators (+1.5)

The 2013 edition of the "World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" is set to go Saturday and both Georgia and Florida sport identical 4-3 records.

Both teams are coming in cold, however, having lost two straight games.

The Georgia Bulldogs (1-5-1 ATS) have severely cooled off since a great victory over LSU in Week 5. Their ATS record is dreadful and places near the bottom of the standings.

Coming off a much-needed bye week, the Gators (2-5 ATS) will look to capture their first Okefenokee Oar trophy since 2010.

"We were all on Georgia's side but between a PK and -2," Korner said. "We sent out GA -1.5 knowing this number can swing to Florida's side. Either one of these teams can win straight up so the number looks to be in the PK zone all week. We don't feel this number will take off either way."

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Tech Red Raiders (+3)

The Red Raiders (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) suffered their first loss of the season against the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 9. Many felt their 7-0 record was potentially smoke and mirrors as it is and their competition in Week 10 is another power in the Sooner State.

After a shocking loss to West Virginia in Week 5, the Cowboys (6-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) have rattled off three-straight victories, including a 58-27 thumping of Iowa State in Week 9.

Korner and his team like the Cowboys as field goal faves and are confident the number will swing throughout the week.

"We sent out Oklahoma State -3 and though we saw the offshores swung their number over to Texas Tech's side, we're not falling for it. Oklahoma State is the better team and that number will come back our way come kick off."

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

3* Toledo
3* Michigan State
2* Navy

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cappers Advantage

Big East
Tennessee

Charlotte Sports
Indiana
Tennessee
Marshall

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Betting First Look with Marco D'Angelo

CFB
ARIZONA @ CALIFORNIA
Arizona -16

**Arizona winning 41-17.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Inside The Stats
by Marc Lawrence

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings:

Standing eight count

Imagine being a 10-win team last year and now a losing squad at this stage of the season. How difficult of a job is it for a coach to get his team psyched to play this week? Plenty.

According to our database, losing teams in Game 8 of the season who won 10 or more games last year are 23-43-1 ATS since 1980, including 15-40-1 ATS if these same teams allow 21 or more PPG on the season.

A total of three teams on this week’s card figure to taking “Standing 8-Counts”, namely Arkansas State, Kansas State and Tulsa.

Talk about being staggered: After going 32-8 combined in 2012, this triumvirate enters this week sporting a cumulative 7-13 record.

Worse, if these wobbly teams are off a win in their last game, they become a 5-10 SU and 2-13 ATS punching bag, including 0-10 ATS when off a double-digit win. With that, look for the K-State Wildcats to take it squarely on the chin this week.

Tougher than the rest

College football teams who face the toughest schedule one season are solid pointspread plays the next season.

That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 56 percent ATS overall mark on nearly 400 plays since 1980.

Bring them into a game off a SU/ATS loss and they improve to 60 percent (55-37). Better yet, when they are playing off back-to-back SU/ATS losses they zoom to 19-4 ATS.

We’ll see just how tough the Florida Gators are this Saturday when they take on Georgia in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in Jacksonville.

Smoke and mirrors

Following up with our “leaking oil” theory (playing against favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a tumultuous run the past two weeks, these plays now stand at 11-15 ATS overall this season, including 8-10 in CFB and 3-5 in the NFL.

Plays would be against Air Force and Rutgers on the college gridiron, along with Indianapolis in the NFL.

ITS

There’s no change in the accounting of teams that are 100 percent perfect “In The Stats” (ITS) in all games played this season these perfect squads. They include:

• Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.

• Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.

In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.

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Spartan G.O.W. - Georgia -2.5 Triple Dime Play

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From This Week's PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

MIAMI (355) AT FLORIDA ST. (356)
Latest Line: Florida St. -21.5; Total: 61.5

FSU has beaten Miami SU the past three years, but the Hurricanes have covered in the last two. The Seminoles have scored at least 41 points in each of their seven games, and 49 in each of their four home games. Their closest game was a 48-34 win at BC, and every other game has been decided by four TDs. Miami needed a last-minute TD to squeak by Wake Forest at home last week, 24-21. The good news is that, after three straight four-turnover games, they didn't give it away last week.
FORECASTER: Florida St. 37, Miami 25

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SteveY

San Diego St. (o54)
Florida Intl. (u51.5)
Marshall (u57.5)
UCLA (o56)