11-4-13

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Today's NFL Pick

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/29)

Game 423-424: Chicago at Green Bay (8:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.477; Green Bay 142.590 Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46 Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 49 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10 1/2); Under

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NFL

Week 9

Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2)—Simply put, Green Bay is 4-0 vs spread when they have zero or one turnover, 0-3 if they have 2+. Bears have four takeaways in last three games, after having 14 in first four. Much like Texans, Chicago had bye week to get backup QB McCown ready for 2nd ’13 start, vs Packer squad that won eight of last nine series games, winning last six in row, all by 7+ points. Bears lost last five visits to Lambeau, with three of five by 13+. Bears won six of last seven post-bye games under Smith; they lost pre-bye game 45-41 at Washington, as McCown did well in relief of injured Cutler (leg) but if they gave up 45 and last-minute score to banged-up RGIII, what will well-balanced Pack attack score? Green Bay won its last four games; they’re 3-0 as home faves this year, winning by 38-20/22-9/31-13 scores at Lambeau. Pack converted 20 of last 31 third down plays, as Nelson emerges as Rodgers’ go-to guy in clutch. Six of seven Chicago games went over total; three of last four Packer games stayed under. NFL-wide, double digit favorites are 8-5 vs spread this year, 2-1 in divisional games.

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (GREEN BAY) good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
45-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.0 units )

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THE GOLD SHEET

OVER the total in the - Chicago-Green Bay - game

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R.a.w. Football

2* = green bay

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Monday Night Football betting: Bears at Packers

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5, 51)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are hitting their stride and seek their fifth consecutive victory when they face the visiting Chicago Bears on Monday night. The hot streak has propelled the Packers to the top of the NFC North, a half-game ahead of Detroit and one in front of the Bears, who have not won in Green Bay since December 2008. The Packers have dominated their oldest rival in recent years behind Rodgers, winning the past six matchups.

Chicago's task is that much more daunting with journeyman Josh McCown set to start in place of Jay Cutler, who suffered a groin injury in a 45-41 loss at Washington prior to last week's bye. McCown acquitted himself well in relief of Cutler, throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown, and did make a start in Green Bay in December 2011. The Bears also have major concerns on the other side of the ball, ranking 29th in the league in points allowed (29.4).

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Packers opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 51.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 27 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-3): McCown's last appearance against the Packers was his first start in four years after he was signed off waivers, so Chicago is confident he is more equipped to handle Sunday's assignment. "We're in a very fortunate position," Bears coach Marc Trestman said. "We've got a guy who has started in this league, has played, has a great grasp of our offense. I think that is clear." Running back Matt Forte rushed for 91 yards and a career-high three TDs versus Washington but has averaged only 44.4 yards rushing in the last five against the Packers.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-2): Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns against four interceptions and has received a boost from the running game, which produced 182 rushing yards in last week's 44-31 rout of Minnesota. Rookie Eddie Lacy had a career-high 29 carries and has toted the ball at least 22 times in the past four games while leading the league with 395 October rushing yards. "We're running the football a lot more effectively," Rodgers said Thursday. ''We're top five ... in throwing it and running it, which I'm sure hasn't happened here in a while."

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North.
* Under is 7-2 in Packers last nine vs. NFC North.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers is 5-0 lifetime at home against Chicago.

2. Bears LB Lance Briggs (shoulder), a seven-time Pro Bowler, is out, putting more pressure on a unit that is 27th in total defense at 391.0 yards per game allowed.

3. The teams are meeting for the 185th time in the regular season, with Chicago leading the series 91-87-6.

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Bank shots: NBA's weekly betting notes

Each week, we look back on the NBA betting scene and give you the best –and worst – basketball bets, as well as some spots to keep an eye on with the upcoming schedule.

For the week of Oct. 29 - Nov. 3

Hottest ATS - Philadelphia 76ers (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS)

Surprise, surprise. Philly was everyone's favorite tank job heading into the season but started the season with wins over the ho-hum Miami Heat, the sexy Washington Wizards and the Derrick Rose-led Chicago Bulls. The Sixers host the high-octane Golden State Warriors Monday, followed by home games against Washington and the Cleveland Cavs. Oh. Michael Carter-Williams is good.

Coldest ATS - Memphis Grizzlies (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS)

The Grizz are an overtime victory away from starting the campaign 0-3 SU. They started the season as road dogs in two games (at San Antonio, at Dallas) and failed to cover as 7.5-point home faves against the Detroit Pistons. The usually-reliable defense has sputtered out of the gate, allowing 106.7 points per game. Memphis will try to cash in for backers with a full week at home as the Celtics, Pelicans and Warriors stop by.

Best Over play - Dallas Mavericks (2-1 SU, 3-0 O/U)

The Mavs have started with a scorching offense that is averaging 111.3 points per game through the opening three games of the season. Add to that a defense that permits 107 points per game and you have a perfect formula for Overs. There is a possibility of some more Overs on tap for the Mavs as they host the Lakers Tuesday, the Thunder on Wednesday and the Timberwolves Friday.

Best Under play - Indiana Pacers (3-0 SU, 0-3 O/U)

A perfect start to season for the Pacers and a glorious start for an exceptionally good defense - both interior and perimeter. The Pacers are second best in the league, allowing 83.7 points per contest. They held the Cleveland Cavs to just 74 points in an 89-74 victory Saturday and through three games, the Pelicans are the only squad to reach 90 points against Indy thus far. The Pacers have a big week versus Eastern Conference foes with games against Detroit, Chicago, Toronto and Broolyn coming up.

Surveying the schedule:

- The sharp-shooting Golden State Warriors embark on a long and grueling road trip this week. The miles could take a toll on one of the league's more uptempo offenses and fatigue could play a factor which could spell betting value. The Warriors start Monday night in Philly, followed by a trip to Minnesota Wednesday, then San Antonio Friday and Memphis Saturday. All tough opponents as well.

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Pucking the trends: This week's best NHL bets

Every week, we update you on who's hot, who's not and situational betting spots in the National Hockey League.

For the week of Oct. 28 - Nov. 3.

Hot team

Colorado Avalanche (2-0 SU)

No team is hotter in the league. The Avs continued their blistering start to the season with victories in six-straight games, including wins in both their games this past week. Patrick Roy's team is doing it with the top goals against in the league (1.5 per game) and the league's best penalty kill at 90.9 percent. The Avs are at home for three games this week starting with a visit from the Nashville Predators Wednesday followed by Calgary (Friday) and Washington (Sunday).

Cold team

Carolina Hurricanes (0-3 SU)

What a dismal week for the Canes. Carolina entered the week on a two-game skid and proceeded to drop all three games in the week, topped by a 5-1 loss on Broadway against a suddenly-resurgent New York Rangers team Saturday. The Canes rank near the bottom across the board in significant stat categories and it showed this past week, where they were outscored a whopping 11-2 in their three losses. They do start a five-game homestand versus the Philadelphia Flyers Tuesday night.

Best Over play

Ottawa Senators (3-0 O/U)

Last season's top Under play (11-30 O/U) has already played Over in eight of their first 13 games. The defense has let them down in a major way, allowing a league-high 38.5 shots per game while the normally-reliable goaltending duo of Craig Anderson and Rebin Lehner is allowing 3.2 goals per game, ranking them 27th. Throw in the fact that the Sens are putting up 3.0 goals per game on their own and this team is an Over waiting to happen - at least until the defense and goaltending sort themselves out.

Best Under play

Vancouver Canucks (0-3 O/U)

Canucks goalie Roberto Luongo had an excellent week, capped by a superb 21-save, 4-0 shutout against the Toronto Maple Leafs Saturday night. Beyond Luongo's stellar play keeping scorelines low, Vancouver boasts an excellent penalty killing unit ranked third in the league (87.3), but a feeble power play that converts on just 9.6 percent of its chances with the man advantage. The Canucks embark on a four-game road trip starting at Phoenix on Tuesday night.

Surveying the schedule

- Over bettors, I'm sure, are constantly looking at the defensively deficient Edmonton Oilers, but their upcoming schedule could have fans of the Over licking their chops. Edmonton starts a four-game road trip in Florida Tuesday night before heading to Tampa, where sniper Steven Stamkos could single-handedly take care of the Over himself. The Oilers are allowing a league-worst 3.9 goals per game.

- The New York Rangers are a much better team than what we've seen in the early stages and may have turned a corner. The Blueshirts are winners of three straight and could provide betting value with three of their four games at home this week. They host Anaheim Monday night, followed by a visit from the Pittsburgh Penguins. Thursday sees them at Columbus before closing the week with a visit from the Florida Panthers.

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College football odds: Week 11 opening line report

Offensive fireworks will come early in Week 11.

A pair of Thursday night games feature the two highest-scoring offenses in the land in each tilt.

The first of which is a huge Pac-12 affair between the Stanford Cardinal (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) and the unbeaten and explosive Oregon Ducks (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS).

The Ducks are second in the nation averaging 55.6 points per game and are yet to be tested. Lost amid the flurry of hype around the offense, is a very solid defensive unit that is seventh in points against at 16.9.

They are coming off a bye week and disposed of UCLA with relative ease 42-14 on Oct. 26.

The Cardinal are in the midst of a great season in their own right, with just one hiccup at Utah along the way.

They too are coming off a bye week after taming Sean Mannion and the Oregon State offense with a 20-12 victory on Oct. 26.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, knows that despite the high-octane offense, Oregon will be tested by a tough Cardinal defense.

"Stanford has the defense but can only hope to slow Oregon down here and there," Korner told Covers. "Our range was from Oregon -10.5 to -15. We had requests for this game last week and we put out Oregon -14. After looking at it again, we kept the same number."

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears (-16)

The "other" Thursday matchup featuring a score-at-will offense is this Big 12 tilt in Waco, TX.

The Bears (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) boast the highest-scoring offense around, tallying an astronomical 63.9 points per game.

Not just another team coming off a bye week, but a team that put up a massive victory in their last effort. The Bears rocked the Kansas Jayhawks 59-14 on Oct. 26.

Save for a disappointing loss in the Red River Rivalry, the Sooners (7-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) have put together an excellent season. The Sooners haven't been kind to their backers of late, however, as they are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games.

"When it comes to Baylor, I usually just go with the highest number. This time I settled for Baylor -16," says Korner. "As always, you're asking any team Baylor plays to pick up their scoring. Because Oklahoma can compete (and win straight up), we do have some respect for them."

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-6)

A tough loss for Wolverines (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) on the weekend as in-state rival Michigan State easily outplayed them en route to the 29-6 victory.

Nebraska (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) bounced back from a loss at Minnesota on Oct. 26 with a victory over Northwestern. The Huskers should count their blessings, however, as the win came as a result of a Hail Mary as the clock hit zeroes. It was the second-straight game which the Huskers failed to cover.

Korner and his team of oddsmakers were all on the same page for this bringing similar numbers to the table.

"We had a range from Michigan -5 to -7 and that made it easy to stick a -6 as our send out," confirms Korner. "This game could go either way and we don't suspect a lot of movement with this line from where it opens."

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-14)

The top defense in the nation will be tested by one of the more potent offenses in the land in this batle of SEC heavyweights.

This will be a test for 'Bama (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) as a win here puts them on the cusp of an unbeaten season heading into the Bowl games. They have a pair of easy games (Mississippi State, Chattanooga) before closing the season at the Auburn Tigers.

LSU (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) would love to play spoiler for the Tide's unbeaten aspirations. At 40.2 points per game, the Tigers are 16th in the nation in scoring, but both of their defeats have come on the road this season.

Korner and his team all brought double-digit spreads to the table and settled on -14.

"We had Alabama -12, -14 and -16 so we put out -14, right in the middle," states Korner. "'Bama fans will think that's too low and LSU fans should drool with two TD's to start."

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EPL betting: Manchester City now 2/1 to win League

A 7-0 rout of an abysmal Norwich side has Manchester City back on top of the title odds for the Barclays Premier League. The Citizens, 9/4 last week, are now 2/1 at the LVH Superbook. Chelsea, 2/1 last week, is now sitting at 5/2 after a disappointing loss at Newcastle United.

Teams in the relegation zone - Sunderland, Norwich and Crystal Palace - round out the board at 9000/1.

Table-toppers Arsenal can currently be had at 7/2

Here is a list of the updated Premier League odds, courtesy of the LVH Superbook.

MANCHESTER UNITED - 15/2
MANCHESTER CITY - 2/1
CHELSEA - 5/2
ARSENAL - 7/2
LIVERPOOL - 10/1
TOTTENHAM - 15/1
EVERTON - 100/1
NEWCASTLE - 2000/1
ASTON VILLA - 2000/1
WEST BROM - 2500/1
SOUTHAMPTON - 500/1
SWANSEA CITY - 1500/1
FULHAM - 5000/1
WEST HAM - 3000/1
SUNDERLAND - 9000/1
STOKE CITY - 5000/1
CARDIFF CITY - 5000/1
NORWICH CITY - 9000/1
HULL CITY - 5000/1
CRYSTAL PALACE - 9000/1

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Rangers/Ducks both won four of their last five games.
-- Red Wings won last three games, outscoring foes 11-4.

Cold teams
-- Jets lost six of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Ranger games.
-- Three of last four Winnipeg games stayed under the total.

Series records
-- Ducks won three of last four games with Rangers; they beat NY 6-0 at home Oct. 10.
-- Red Wings won three of last five games against Winnipeg.

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pros knows ( bio )

2u Packers -10.5

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Today's NBA Picks

Houston at LA Clippers

The Clippers look to take advantage of a Houston team that is coming off a 104-93 victory over Utah on Saturday and is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. LA is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Clippers favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 501-502: Golden State at Philadelphia (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.800; Philadelphia 122.198 Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 218 Vegas Line & Total: Golden State by 7; 211 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+7); Over

Game 503-504: Minnesota at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 113.182; Cleveland 117.106 Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 4; 191 Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 2; 195 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-2); Under

Game 505-506: Boston at Memphis (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 117.216; Memphis 124.663 Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 7 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 507-508: Houston at LA Clippers (10:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston 120.318; LA Clippers 127.258 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Clippers by 7; 200 Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 5; 207 Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (-5); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Detroit at Winnipeg

The Red Wings come in riding a 5-1 record in their last 6 road games and look to take advantage of a Jets' team that is 1-4 in it last 5 home games. Detroit is the pick (-135) according to Dunkel, which has the Red Wings favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4 Time Posted 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 1-2: Anaheim at NY Rangers (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 10.964; NY Rangers 12.119 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Anaheim (-120); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+100); Over

Game 3-4: Detroit at Winnipeg (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 12.644; Winnipeg 10.692 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-135); Under