11-4-13

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Ecks and Bacon

Ben lee lost both games the *Raiders -1/Eagles for the 1st half (Best Bet) and the Falcons +7.5/Panthers in the NFL on Sunday.

For Monday E&B like the Packers -5/Bears for the 1st half.

Ecks and Bacon is 2-7 -$285.

All E&B selections will be for $50 unless noted.

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From This Week's FOOTBALL BEST BETS
STATFOX BRIAN

CHICAGO (423) AT GREEN BAY (424)
Latest Line: GREEN BAY -10.5; Total: 51.0

This spread is way too large considering all the injuries the Packers are dealing with, such as WRs Randall Cobb and James Jones, TE Jermichael Finley and OLB Clay Matthews. The Bears won't have QB Jay Cutler, but they should be able to run the football like they've done in their past two trips to Lambeau Field, when they rumbled for 293 yards on 4.5 YPC. Chicago's defense is also skilled in forcing turnovers with 16 takeaways this season, and the Packers are 0-2-1 ATS in their three games in which they've had multiple giveaways. Road teams coming off a road loss in November games are 30-7 ATS (81%) over the past five seasons and Mike McCarthy hasn't exploited poor passing defenses (7+ YPA allowed) in his tenure as the Green Bay head coach, going 10-19 ATS (35%) and winning these games by a tight 4.4 PPG margin. I also expect a close game here with the Packers prevailing on a late field goal.
Play On: Chicago

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bankroll sports

Today's Premium Member Releases
(All Game Times Are Listed In Eastern Standard Time)
Note: Date of Releases Noted in Top Right Panel of Page
10* Bears @ Packers Under 51 (NFL) / 8:40pm
Current Line @ 5 Dimes - Get an Exclusive 50% Match-Play Bonus By Clicking Here!
(50% Match Play Bonus - 5 Dimes Has Shown The Ability To Offer Very Fast Payments)
5* Cleveland Cavaliers -2 (NBA) / 7:05pm
5* Chicago Bears +10.5 (NFL) / 8:40pm
4* Philadelphia 76ers +7 (NBA) / 7:05pm
3* Celtics @ Grizzlies Under 186 (NFL) / 8:05pm

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Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

4* NHL Detroit un 5.5

4* NBA Clippers ov 206.5

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Total

Monday card has 2 Big 5* NBA Plays, one form a Perfect system the other with a 21-1 angle. We also have the NFL Play from 2 Solid systems. Monday night Football has cashed 8 of the last 10 and NFL Prime time plays are on a 16-6 run overall. Free NBA Totals Play below.

On Monday the free NBA Totals system Play is on the Over in the Minnesota at Cleveland game. Rotation numbers 503/504 at 7:05 eastern. This game fits a nice totals system from the database that plays to the over for road dogs of 4 or less points like Minnesota that have no rest and are off a road game where they scored 90 or more also as a road dog of 4 or less, vs an opponent like Cleveland that played on the road and scored 90 or less. These games have played over 16 of 21 times since 1995. The Cavaliers have shot under 40% the last 2 games and should improve that number tonight against a Minnesota team off a game in NY with no rest. The Cavs have played over in 14 of 16 games if they went under in 3 or more straight. Minnesota has pled over in 8 of 12 on the road with no rest off a road game. Look for this one to go over the total tonight. Monday night Football is on ab 8-2 run and we have the Power system in this game tonight. There are also a Pair of 5 * NBA Power system plays. One has Never lost and the other is from a 21-1 Indicator. Jump on Now as we start the week big in Foots and Hoops. For the free Play go over the total in the Minnesota and Cleveland game. GC

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Northcoast
2* Green Bay -10'
marquee - under 51

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Paul Leiner

100* Twolves/Cavaliers Over 196.5

50* Rockets +5

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Ed Meyer's Pick Pack
NFL Monday Picks


Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Chicago at Green Bay
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Over (49.5 -110)
Line Source: Mirage-MGM
Posted on: November 1, 2013 @ 6:20:01 PM EDT


Monday Night Totals Play of the Year


Last week against the Vikings was only the second time since the start of the 2010 season that the Packers rushed the ball greater than five times more than they threw it. Aaron Rogers had an “average” day only because the Vikings offense was sluggish.
The Bears have McCown going at QB, but this is no reason to think that the game will be low scoring. Chicago is a big dog, they have a great set of offense weapons for McCown, their pass defense is terrible, Briggs is out and they are facing a team that has dominated them. The Bears should play with a nothing-to-lose attitude and this should get the game over this number.
Green Bay is 8-0 OU after a road game in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average, going over by an average of 12.8 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and p:A and p:rushes-tA(p:rushes)>=10 and date>=19991201
More importantly, the Packers are 9-0 OU as a favorite by more than a TD when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and line<-7 and oA(o:CP)>65 and date>=20091201
This trend really hits the Bulls’ eye; as a big favorite vs a team that has a high completion percentage allowed, the Packers rely on their offense to get the will and play less than ferocious defense. In their last two games in this spot, the Packers have scored 55 and 44 points, effectively give the defense a “day off.”.
Chicago has been FLYING over when visiting a team that likes to throw the ball. Since last October, the Bears are 6-0 OU when visiting a team that has thrown the ball at least 35 times per game, going over by an average of 17.9 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and A and 35=20121001
In their two qualifying games this season, Chicago lost 40-32 to the Lions and 45-41 to the Redskins. How is this one going to stay under 50.5? Trestman can’t be thinking – “my defense is going to hold the Packers to 20 points.” If the Bears are going to compete in this game, they are going to have to score at least 30 and this is the number the Bears should be targeting.
The weather forecast for Green Bay on Sunday is 50 degrees with 0% chance of rain and light winds -- perfect for football. Take the OVER and get in ASAP, we would be very surprised if this one did not close high than 51, which is a key number for NFL totals.
MTi’s FORECAST: GREEN BAY 35 Chicago 28

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Totals 4 You Selections for Monday, November 4th

2013 NFC North Primetime Total of the Year!!!!!
Chicago/Green Bay under 50 1/2
You Win or we'll email you Tuesday's Report Free of Charge!!!

NBA Best Bets
Golden State/Philadelphia over 210
Minnesota/Cleveland under 195
Houston/Los Angeles over 206 1/2

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Chicago Syndicate

Bears/Packers Over

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LA Syndicate

Packers
Under Warriors
Over Clippers

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Where the action is: Public, sharps split on Bears-Packers

The NFC North’s favorite rivalry headlines the Week 10 finale Monday night. The Packers are big home favorites hosting the Bears at Lambeau Field.

We talk to Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming on Monday Night Football and where the odds could move come kickoff:

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers – Open: -11, Move: -11.5, Move: -10

With Bears QB Jay Cutler among the long list of injuries on Chicago’s roster, books opened the Packers as big as -11. They braced for early action on the favorite, that being the betting pattern for NFL primetime games, but didn’t start to see real wagering action on this divisional grudge match until Sunday.

According to Stewart, action came in on Green Bay and tacked a half-point hook on the spread which prompted wiseguys to take the underdog and force a big move to -10.5.

“It's a game where the public is backing the favorite, sharps are on the dog,” Stewart tells Covers. “So far, 65 percent of the action is on the favorite and I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to Packers -11, but we really like our position on this game. “

As for Monday’s total, the number opened as low as 49 points at some books. All the action pounded the Over, driving this total to as high as 51. Chicago has started the season 6-1 Over/Under while Green Bay is 4-3 O/U.

“Again, with this being a standalone game with one of the more prolific offenses in the NFL (Packers), we're concerned about getting too much Over money,” says Stewart. “So far 60 percent of the action is on the Over and at this point I can't see us moving this total anytime soon.”

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See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities
By JASON LOGAN

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

The USC Trojans scored their most impressive win of the season Friday, upending Oregon State with a 31-14 win in Corvallis – not an easy thing to do for an underperforming program like Southern Cal. The Trojans got massive efforts on the ground from Silas Redd and Javorius Allen and won back-to-back games for just the second time this season.

Southern Cal is primed for the letdown heading to Cal as 17-point chalk in Week 11. The Trojans play their second straight road game and visit a Golden Bears squad that is still fighting despite a laundry list of injuries leading to a 1-8 record. On top of walking into Berkeley all fat and cocky, USC could also get caught looking ahead to a showdown with Stanford next week.

Lookahead spot

The Los Angeles Clippers are among the favorites to claim the Western Conference title and eventually meet the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals – if all goes according to oddsmakers’ plans. The Clippers have a possible finals preview against the Heat in South Beach Thursday night but have a daunting schedule this week, including a red-alert letdown spot in Orlando Wednesday.

Los Angeles’ trip to Orlando is sandwiched between a huge home date with Houston Monday and Thursday’s marquee matchup in Miami. The Magic were projected to be among the worst teams in the Eastern Conference but haven’t rolled over, knocking off the Nets Sunday and going 4-0 ATS in their first four games. Orlando has two full days off to prepare for the Clippers while L.A. has to cross the country for this Wednesday contest.

Schedule spot

The Minnesota Vikings are wearing thin. Not only are the Vikes down and out after letting a sure win slip through their hands in Dallas but are also wrapping up a tough stretch of schedule that has them playing four games in just 18 days, heading into Thursday’s home game with the Washington Redskins as 1-point home underdogs.

Minnesota, which is just 1-7 SU (3-5 ATS), will also be playing in its third primetime game in the past four weeks Thursday, losing to the Giants on Monday Night Football in Week 7 and falling to Green Bay on Sunday Night Football in Week 8. That busy slate and the emotional roller coaster of constantly getting embarrassed on national TV is a heavy tax on this struggling team.

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Rockets look to stay unbeaten at Clippers Monday
by Freddy Wander

Tip-off: Monday, 10:35 p.m. ET
Line: Los Angeles -4.5, Total: 205.5

Dwight Howard travels back to Staples Center on Monday night for the first time since signing with the Rockets, but to play the Clippers, and not his old team.

After an embarrassing loss in their opener against the Lakers, the Clippers have strung together two straight convincing wins, beating Golden State by 11 and winning at Sacramento by nine. They have also put up impressive offensive numbers this season, averaging 113.0 PPG on 49.6% FG. But winning a third straight contest won't be easy against undefeated Houston who has allowed opposing teams to score only 93.7 PPG on 38.7% FG this season. The Rockets have looked like a top team this season, winning their first three games by an average of 10.7 PPG. Last season, the Clippers took two of the three games played between these two teams, but were 1-2 ATS. In the one game in L.A. last season, the Clips won 106-96, but were barely unable to cover the 11-point spread. In the most recent meeting on March 30, the Clippers were out-rebounded 60-42 and managed only 81 points in 17-point drubbing by Houston. Since 1996, the Rockets have gone 42-21 SU (.667) and 36-27 ATS (.571) in the series. Although, in the previous two seasons, the Clippers hold a significant edge going 5-1 SU and 3-3 ATS against the Rockets. L.A. will be looking for its fifth straight home win in this series, winning the past four by an average margin of 11.3 PPG. The Under has dominated this series recently with nine of the past 11 meetings (82%) coming in under the total, making the Under 34-26 (57%) in this series since 1996. Rockets PG Jeremy Lin will once again get the start and majority of minutes at the point with PG Patrick Beverly out 1-to-2 weeks with a rib injury.

The Rockets averaged 106.0 PPG last season (2nd in NBA) and have been right around that mark in the first three games this year (104.3 PPG). On the defensive side of the ball, Houston surrendered 102.5 PPG last season (3rd-worst in league), but the offseason addition of C Dwight Howard really helped the team both in solidifying their rebounding and defense, dropping the team's scoring defense by 8.8 PPG. The big man has also given the Rockets another element to the offense with 15.0 PPG to start the season, averaging an NBA-best 17.0 RPG to go along with 1.7 BPG. The combination of Howard and C Omer Asik (11.7 RPG) has placed the Rockets second in the league in total rebounds (48.3 RPG) and rebounding margin (+8.6 RPG). Howard has done very well against the Clippers over his 19 career games (19.3 PPG, 12.3 RPG, 2.4 BPG) and has shot an amazing 60.2% from the field, but averaged only 8.8 RPG in four games against them last season while with the Lakers. SG James Harden has proven to be a top player in the league and the addition of Howard has pushed his ceiling even higher. So far this season, Harden is averaging 26.0 PPG and has eight steals (2.7 SPG). “The Beard” has performed well below his career 16.3 PPG average when facing the Clippers though, averaging a mere 11.6 PPG on 34.5% FG in his 12 career games against them. Harden did score 23 points in his one game against L.A. last season, but was 8-for-20 from the floor (2-of-9 threes) and committed five turnovers. The Rockets also get much of their offense from players not named Harden or Howard, as PG Jeremy Lin (16.7 PPG, 3.3 APG) and SF Chandler Parsons (14.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) combined for 44 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists against the Jazz on Saturday night.

The Clippers have bounced back in a big way since their opening night loss against the Lakers, winning their past two games by an average of 10.0 PPG. All of their games have been shootouts to this point, with their offense averaging 113.0 PPG and their defense allowing 110.7 PPG. One constant for L.A. has been superstar PG Chris Paul, who has 10+ assists in all three games (12.0 APG) and scored 68 combined points in the team’s two wins. Paul struggled a bit with his shot in his two games against the Rockets last season with only 14.5 PPG on 43.5% FG, but he still dished out 18 assists and committed only two turnovers. Paul has usually played well versus the Rockets in his career though, averaging 18.9 PPG (46% FG), 9.7 APG and 2.5 SPG in 27 meetings. PF Blake Griffin has also put together two great games in the Clippers wins (21.5 PPG, 13.5 RPG) but his 17.6 PPG against the Rockets in 10 career games is his third-lowest average against any NBA team. C DeAndre Jordan should compete for Defensive Player of the Year this season with his ability to block shots (2.0 BPG) and steal the ball (2.0 SPG). He has also increased his contribution to the offensive in each of his seasons in the NBA and hopes to keep his scoring average in double-digits for the first time in his career (11.3 PPG so far this season). SG J.J. Redick (14.3 PPG on 48.4% FG) joins one of the top scoring options off the bench in the league, SG Jamal Crawford (16.7 PPG, 51.4% FG), to give L.A. a potent three-point duo at all times. The pair has combined to make 14-for-32 shots (44%) from behind the arc this season.

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From Platinum Plays.

PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Cleveland Cavaliers -2 over
the Minnesota Timberwolves
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