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Joe Gavazzi | NFL Side pick424 GBP -10.5 (-110) BetOnline vs 423 CHI
Analysis: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10-/51) 8:40 ET ESPN 2* Green Bay (-10-) 2* OVER 51 NBA about to heat up with my Monday Night 3* tonight. Be on board when I start my epic run. Anyone who tracks the correlation between TO margin and ATS records, understands that the Chicago Bears +9 net TO margin should translate into far better than the 1-5 ATS mark they bring to this MNF division rivalry. In short, the projection for Chicago's ATS success is limited once TOs begin to even out. HC Trestman has proven to be an offensive guru as advertised. The Bears average 30 PPG on offense on a decent 368 yards. Though QB Cutler is replaced by QB McCown, not sure there is much drop off. The major issue for the Bears is a defense that allows 29 PPG, 391 yards and 6.4 YP Play, that latter number among the worst in the NFL. Prior to their bye week, Chicago was losing 41-45 at Washington, a high-scoring defeat that dropped the Bears to 3-8 ATS as road dog. Not usually one to fancy laying double digits in division rivalries, one must make an exception with Green Bay. Included in their 22-7 ATS mark on this field, is 7 consecutive home covers vs. division rivals. It has been "next man up" for the Packers this year with LT Bakhtiari and WR Boykin filling in admirably for their injured counterparts. Key addition has been RB Lacy who has balanced the offense with a ground game that runs at an average of 30 times per game for 141/4.8, outrushing opponents by an average of 57 YPG. Put that running game in the mix with QB Rogers, who leads a GB passing game that averages 8.4 YPA, and you see why the Packers are leading the league at 6.7 YP Play. No surprise that Chicago is 6-1 OVER this season, as their games average 59 PPG. High-scoring GB offense only too happy to oblige.
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