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5* Chicago at Green Bay OVER 50 - Last week against the Vikings was only the second time since the start of the 2010 season that the Packers rushed the ball greater than five times more than they threw it. Aaron Rogers had an "average" day only because the Vikings don't have a down-the-field passing game.
The Bears have McCown going at QB, but this is no reason to think that the game will be low scoring. Chicago is a big dog, they have a great set of offense weapons for McCown, their pass defense is terrible, Briggs is out and they are facing a team that has dominated them. The Bears should play with a nothing-to-lose attitude and this should get the game over this number.
Green Bay is 8-0 OU after a road game in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average, going over by an average of 12.8 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and p:A and p:rushes-tA(p:rushes)>=10 and date>=19991201
More importantly, the Packers are 9-0 OU as a favorite by more than a TD when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The SDQL text is:
team=Packers and line<-7 and oA(o:CP)>65 and date>=20091201
This trend really hits the Bulls' eye; as a big favorite vs a team that has a high completion percentage allowed, the Packers rely on their offense to get the will and play less than ferocious defense. In their last two games in this spot, the Packers have scored 55 and 44 points, effectively give the defense a "day off.".
Chicago has been FLYING over when visiting a team that likes to throw the ball. Since last October, the Bears are 6-0 OU when visiting a team that has thrown the ball at least 35 times per game, going over by an average of 17.9 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Bears and A and 35=20121001
In their two qualifying games this season, Chicago lost 40-32 to the Lions and 45-41 to the Redskins. How is this one going to stay under 50.5. Trestman can't be thinking - "my defense is going to hold the Packers to 20 points." If the Bears are going to compete in this game, they are going to have to score at least 30 and this is the number the Bears should be targeting.
The weather forecast for Green Bay on Sunday is 50 degrees with 0% chance of rain and light winds -- perfect for football. Take the OVER and get in ASAP, we would be very surprised if this one did not close high than 51, which is a key number for NFL totals.
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