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Pointspread prognosis Joe Gavazzi
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Oklahoma at Baylor (-15) 7:30 ET FS1
This is one of the biggest value games of the season. Consider the following: in the last 14 games between these two teams, Oklahoma has been favored by an average of 27 PPG. That includes last year when as 21 point favorite, they defeated Baylor 42-34. At the start of the season, Oklahoma would have been favored by as many as 7 points in this game. But because Baylor has put up video game offensive numbers against Wofford, Buffalo, LA Monroe, WVU, Iowa St., and Kansas, this line has soared into the stratosphere. Greatest point of comparison is the Baylor 35-25 victory at Kansas St. (they trailed in the 2nd half) against the only quality team they have faced. In that game, the Wildcats controlled the ball on the ground with a strong running game. Look for Oklahoma to do the same. That is exactly the MO that HC Stoops and the Sooners used in our top rated CFB October GOM winner vs. TTRR, another aerial circus. It means something that Oklahoma has won 21/22 of the recent games in the series. Since that loss to Oklahoma, Baylor has gone 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS (covering by 18 PPG) and 8-0 SU ATS on this field. That all changes today; when they meet a quality team who can control the line of scrimmage against them.
Troy at LA Lafayette (-13) 7:30 ET ESPNU
It was not that many years ago that Troy was churning out Sun Belt titles like clockwork. But, the rest of the league has caught up to them. Tonight, they enter on an 18-28 ATS slide with a record this year of 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS. At 6-2 SU for the season, 3-0 SU ATS in league play, Lafayette is the league leader. The Ragin Cajuns enter on a 6 game win streak. The last 4 of which were all by 14 or more points. HC Hudspeth is on a run of 22-12 ATS. The Cajuns have the best OL and DL play in the league. On offense, they average 227/5.0 running and 217/8.6 passing, good for 38 PPG. Note the record of 153-37 ATS (81% to play on any CFB team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards, if there opponent does not). The one dimensional (passing) offense of Troy and inferior defense allowing 35/472 is no match for the league leader.
Oregon (-10) at Stanford 9:00 ET ESPN
Classic matchup of a high-flying Ducks’ spread offense against the ground and pound methodology of Stanford. In the last 2 regular seasons, spanning 20 games, Oregon has scored 42 or more points every game, EXCEPT in their lone loss in that timeframe, a 17-14 home defeat to Stanford which prevented them from playing for the National Championship. Does Stanford have the game plan to shoot down the Ducks? There is a major reason why that may not occur. It is on the defensive side of the ball, where last year’s Stanford defense allowed just 17/336. This year, the Cards are just a bit more permissive at 19/354. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense has improved from 22 to 17 PPG. You will pay a bit of an inflated price to back Oregon because since that loss to Stanford, they have gone 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS and have covered 12 consecutive games on the road. This year, they are winning by an average count of 56-17. With the Kansas Jayhawks and Andrew Wiggins not suiting up until tomorrow night (against LA Monroe), best advice for this contest is Rock Chalk, Flock.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Oklahoma at Baylor (-15) 7:30 ET FS1
This is one of the biggest value games of the season. Consider the following: in the last 14 games between these two teams, Oklahoma has been favored by an average of 27 PPG. That includes last year when as 21 point favorite, they defeated Baylor 42-34. At the start of the season, Oklahoma would have been favored by as many as 7 points in this game. But because Baylor has put up video game offensive numbers against Wofford, Buffalo, LA Monroe, WVU, Iowa St., and Kansas, this line has soared into the stratosphere. Greatest point of comparison is the Baylor 35-25 victory at Kansas St. (they trailed in the 2nd half) against the only quality team they have faced. In that game, the Wildcats controlled the ball on the ground with a strong running game. Look for Oklahoma to do the same. That is exactly the MO that HC Stoops and the Sooners used in our top rated CFB October GOM winner vs. TTRR, another aerial circus. It means something that Oklahoma has won 21/22 of the recent games in the series. Since that loss to Oklahoma, Baylor has gone 11-0 SU, 10-1 ATS (covering by 18 PPG) and 8-0 SU ATS on this field. That all changes today; when they meet a quality team who can control the line of scrimmage against them.
Troy at LA Lafayette (-13) 7:30 ET ESPNU
It was not that many years ago that Troy was churning out Sun Belt titles like clockwork. But, the rest of the league has caught up to them. Tonight, they enter on an 18-28 ATS slide with a record this year of 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS. At 6-2 SU for the season, 3-0 SU ATS in league play, Lafayette is the league leader. The Ragin Cajuns enter on a 6 game win streak. The last 4 of which were all by 14 or more points. HC Hudspeth is on a run of 22-12 ATS. The Cajuns have the best OL and DL play in the league. On offense, they average 227/5.0 running and 217/8.6 passing, good for 38 PPG. Note the record of 153-37 ATS (81% to play on any CFB team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards, if there opponent does not). The one dimensional (passing) offense of Troy and inferior defense allowing 35/472 is no match for the league leader.
Oregon (-10) at Stanford 9:00 ET ESPN
Classic matchup of a high-flying Ducks’ spread offense against the ground and pound methodology of Stanford. In the last 2 regular seasons, spanning 20 games, Oregon has scored 42 or more points every game, EXCEPT in their lone loss in that timeframe, a 17-14 home defeat to Stanford which prevented them from playing for the National Championship. Does Stanford have the game plan to shoot down the Ducks? There is a major reason why that may not occur. It is on the defensive side of the ball, where last year’s Stanford defense allowed just 17/336. This year, the Cards are just a bit more permissive at 19/354. Meanwhile, Oregon’s defense has improved from 22 to 17 PPG. You will pay a bit of an inflated price to back Oregon because since that loss to Stanford, they have gone 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS and have covered 12 consecutive games on the road. This year, they are winning by an average count of 56-17. With the Kansas Jayhawks and Andrew Wiggins not suiting up until tomorrow night (against LA Monroe), best advice for this contest is Rock Chalk, Flock.
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