11-7-13

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POINTWISE
PROFESSIONAL
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
Washington 23 - MINNESOTA 20 - (8:25 - NFL) -- Only in the NFC East could
a team with a 3-5 record find itself just 1½ behind the division front runner. A
super goal line stand saved the bacon for the 'Skins, in their OT win over the
Chargers. Griffin 0/1 in that one, & he is now only 7/7 for the season.
However Washington did gain 500 yds, with Morris motoring for 121 yds. That 'Skin "D"
has allowed 35.3 ppg in its last 4 games. But can the Vikings, & their 29th-rated
"O" take advantage? Four straight losses for Minny, but getting closer, losing by
25, 16, 13, & 4 pts. So, with that in mind, we shall call this loss by about a FG.

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POINTWISE
COLLEGIATE
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
BAYLOR over Oklahoma RATING: 1
RATED "1" PLAYS THIS SEASON: 14-6
TOP 5 COLLEGE THIS YEAR: 30-17

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE
PRO FOOTBALL
MINNESOTA over Washington by 1
Vikings’ woes continue as they return home off a hard-luck loss at
Dallas, riding a 4-game losing streak after devouring fi sh and chips
with blokes across the ocean. As a result, Minnesota HC Leslie Frazier
currently resides on the hot seat while looking to plug holes in a sinking
ship. The fi rst sign of a good fi x arrives in the form of an NFC East foe as
Minny has been mighty in games against teams from this division when
taking the fi eld off a back-to-back losses, going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS.
The Norsemen are also 4-1 SUATS in their last fi ve games as a home dog.
On the other side of the coin, the American Natives are just 2-5 SUATS in
their last seven battles with the NFC North, and 1-5 SUATS as favorites in
games before fi ghts with Philly. Toss in the Hogs’ 1-4 SUATS road mark
on Thursdays and suddenly the fl ame on Frazier’s derriere diminishes
for the time being.

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE
3* BEST BET
BAYLOR over Oklahoma by 3
The first of two magnificent matchups on this Thursday evening
(Oregon versus Stanford kicks off at 9:00 ET), tonight’s Big 12 battle
is loaded with intrigue. For openers, this is a genuine ‘step-up’ game
for a Baylor squad that has looked all but invincible while climbing
to the No. 6 spot in the current BCS rankings. But while everyone
seems blinded by the Bears’ impressive 64 PPG offense – which more
than doubles the Sooners’ average output of 31 PPG this season –
the fact is Buffalo and Kansas State are the only winning teams on
this year’s list of victims (BU blasted Buffy but failed to bring home
the bacon against KSU when the Bears were held to a season-low 35
points). The once-beaten Sooners (lost to Texas) are a competitive
8-2-1 ATS as regular season dogs with rest when playing off a SU
win whereas rest turns to rust for Art Briles’ bunch, currently just
2-7 ATS as home chalk following a bye week. Besides being a playon
proposition in this week’s SMART BOX, Oklahoma is also a ‘LAY
LADY LAY’ recommendation from Marc’s 2011 Black Book, which
supports conference dogs that have been favored in their previous
seven games in a row. Big Game Bob chips in with a 3-1 ATS mark
as a dog of 7 or more points of late, while also bringing a 25-11 SU
record into the fray against unbeaten foes – and just four of those 11
setbacks came by more than 10 points. Remember, the Bears upset
the Sooners here in 2011 as 17-point DOGS with RG3, and laying this
kind of wood into a team that has been favored in each of its last
20 regular season games is simply a case of pushing the envelope
too far. The Clincher: Baylor is 1-20 SU all-time against OU,
installed as a double-digit dog in 18 of those meetings, and
losing SU and ATS in its two tries as chalk.

LA-LAFAYETTE over Troy by 7
How about a little comic relief before the second of tonight’s
heavyweight twin bill? The Sun Belt is always glad to oblige, though
this matchup may prove to be somewhat better than advertised. The
pressure seems to be mounting on the conference-leading Cajuns –
how else can you explain Lafayette trailing national bottom feeder
New Mexico State, 28-14, before rallying in the second half to win –
as they bring a 6-game win streak into this battle. Head coach Mark
Hudspeth had better have plenty of Gatorade on hand for his defense:
the Trojans arrive having scored more than 30 points in eight of nine
games this season, plus they’ve averaged a healthy 34 PPG in the last
eight meetings with the boys from Cajun country. Those are numbers
to remember since the hosts own a dismal 4-17-1 ATS record as chalk
of 3 or more points in games where they allow more than 28 points.
Tonight’s double-digit impost is considerably higher, and just bagging
the outright win will be of far greater importance to Lafayette since a
victory here sets up a potential winner-take-all showdown with state
rival ULM for the league championship (winnable road games versus
Georgia State and South Alabama are sandwiched around the duel with
the Warhawks). The hosts last shared a piece of the Sun Belt title with
ULM and Arkansas State back in 2005 and must stop a Troy team that’s
covered three of the last four meetings with Lafayette at Cajun Field. With ULL now 0-3 ATS as chalk in Game Nine of the season, and the
Trojans eager to clinch a postseason bowl berth win a win today, we
look for a hard-fought thriller to unfold in southern Louisiana. Take
what you can get and hang on for the ride.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
STANFORD over Oregon by 1
After Florida State leapfrogged Oregon into the No. 2 spot in the
BCS rankings following Saturday night’s demolition of previously
unbeaten Miami, the Ducks get a chance to strut their stuff before
a national TV audience – and perhaps recapture the coveted poll
position. Oregon certainly brings plenty of good numbers into
this fray, going 6-0 ATS of late when playing with Pac-12 revenge
and 13-1 ATS away from Eugene when playing with a week’s rest.
There’s also a mega-revenge motive involved as the Cardinal beat
the Ducks in overtime at Autzen Stadium last year and ruined
Oregon’s perfect 10-0 season (ultimately denying OU a shot at the
BCS championship game). The problem for the webfeet is Marc’s
‘TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT’ angle from his 2013 Black Book which
commands that we ‘play against’ 5-0 or greater college road teams
in the game following a week of rest. In contrast, Stanford (like
Oklahoma in the Baylor game) is a ‘LAY LADY LAY’ go-with play
from Marc’s 2011 Black Book. Best of all, though, is Cardinal head
coach David Shaw’s ATS history in tonight’s role. He’s 4-0 ATS as an
underdog (2-0 SUATS if +9.5 or more), and an outstanding 12-3
SU and 11-3-1 ATS versus an .800 or greater opponent – including
10-1-1 ATS if that foe allows 15 or more PPG on the season. Whew! Yes, the ducklings may have covered four of the last fi ve
in this series on the road but they’re just 1-2 SUATS here when
undefeated and 1-3 ATS in Weekday road trips. Oregon QB Marcus
Mariota’s magical run will end against the most well-coached and
physical defense he’s faced all season. Another one bites the dust!
The Clincher: Stan protects The Farm like a pack of junkyard
dogs, going 33-3 SU the last six years, including 5-1 SU and
6-0 ATS as an underdog.

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THE GOLD SHEET
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*BAYLOR 38 - Oklahoma 29—Streaking Baylor is 7-0 TY, 11-0 SU its last 11
games overall (10-1 vs. the spread), and 8-0 SU & vs. the spread its last 8 in Waco. The Bears’ last loss was a year ago, 42-34 at Norman. Since that game,
the Sooners have gone 10-2 SU, with the losses 41-13 to A&M in the Cotton
Bowl and 36-20 last month to Texas. BU’s Bryce Perry (18 TDs, 1 int.) appears much more in control of his attack than Sooner QB Bell. But Oklahoma has the
RBs, ball control and defensive speed to keep the dynamic Bears within reach
if Sooners execute well. TV-FOX 1

*LA.-LAFAYETTE 37 - Troy 31—Troy is 3-1 as a road dog TY, with the
emergence of 226-pound RB Jordan Chunn (400 YR, 10 TDR) providing
valuable power and a short-yardage element to the veteran Trojan offense.
The Troy defense is slowly developing. Potent Louisiana wins, but has a
hard time pulling away from Trojan sr. QB Corey Robinson (69%, 18 TDP).
CABLE TV—ESPNU

*Oregon 27 - STANFORD 21—Winner controls the Pac-12 North. Stanford
was the last team to beat Oregon, which has won 10 straight since, covering 9.
The veteran, physical Cardinal defense limited the Ducks to 14 points LY, as
Stanford held slight edges both running and passing despite losing the turnover
battle 3-1. One key was controlling the ball for 37:05. UCLA ran for 219 yards
vs. the Ducks—in Eugene—with three true frosh in the Bruin OL. Can the
Cardinal do even better? TV—ESPN

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Tony Stoffo

Stanford

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Gamblers Data (Fletcher)

5* UL.Laff gm ov 67

NFL

5* Washington gm ov 48.5

3-1 on here in Nov

12-5 Oct

11-5 Sept

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STATFOX PLATINUM SHEET

PRO FOOTBALL
Washington Redskins (-2½) vs Minnesota Vikings
Game Breakdown: The Vikings try to snap a four-game losing
skid when they face the roller-coaster Redskins for the fourth
straight year on Thursday. Washington has alternated losses and
wins in each of the past six games (both SU and ATS), rolling up
500 total yards in last week’s 30-24 OT win versus the Chargers.
Last week’s 27-23 loss in Dallas, in which TE Kyle Rudolph broke
his foot, drops Minnesota to 0-7 on U.S. soil. His team’s defense
is allowing 36.7 PPG and 413 total YPG at home. This series is 5-5
(SU and ATS) since 1992, but the Redskins won 38-26 last year
behind QB Robert Griffin III’s 138 rushing yards and 2 TD.

Betting System:
Any team where total is between 42.5 and 49 points - after allowing 25+ points in 2 straight games vs. opponent after 2 straight games where 50+ total pts were scored (63-28 Under).
Play = Under the total

Series history – Last 5 Seasons:
MINNESOTA is 2-1 ATS (2-1 SU) vs. WASHINGTON (0-0 ATS, 0-0 SU at home.)

StatFox Six Pack:
• WASHINGTON is 10-1 ATS away after a dominating game - 34+ mins TOP, 24+ First downs since 1992.
• WASHINGTON is 10-2 ATS vs. poor passing defenses (61% completion pct. or worse) over L2 seasons.
• WASHINGTON is 18-3 ATS away vs. excellent punt return teams (>= 12 yards per return since 1992).

• MINNESOTA is 18-3 OVER at home after allowing 300+ passing yards in their last game since 1992.
• MINNESOTA is 15-4 OVER after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 games since 1992.
• MINNESOTA is 9-1 OVER at home off a cover where the team lost as an underdog since 1992.

STATFOX FORECASTER
Washington 25
Minnesota 28

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SPORTS REPORTER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*BAYLOR over OKLAHOMA by 14
Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops must hate having to play on a Thursday night in
Waco, TX, as an underdog. The defenses here are allowing about the same number of
yards per game: 314, 316. But Baylor’s defense is doing it despite being on the field
for an average of 33:57 per game. The Baylor players and coaches acknowledge that
the big difference from last year’s team to this year’s team is the defense. The Sooners will have to go full-on ground and pound, including the big QB Blake Bell, then pray that their D can make a few stops against Baylor’s #1 ranked offense, which is gaining greater than 3.0 more yards per snap than Oklahoma’s.
BAYLOR, 38-24.

*LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE* over TROY by 14
The Lafalots are 2-0 SU and ATS playing on weeknights. Troy is 0-2 SU and ATS
playing on weeknights and hasn’t been much better on Saturdays the last three
years. Troy’s biggest weakness is pass defense; ULL often leans on its versatile
running game. Therefore, Troy might be spared the magnitude of its usual embarrassments. Things get a little dicey when the Lafalots’ QB Terrance Broadway puts the ball in the air. He’s not horrible, but he’s a bit too bold. The Sun Belt race is up grabs, because Troy has somehow managed to be 3-2 in conference. ULL is in the
driver’s seat at 3-0.
LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE, 51-37.

OREGON over *STANFORD by 14
Maybe Stanford has Oregon’s number after beating them in Eugene, OR last season.
Or, maybe they don’t. Last year’s Stanford defense was one of the best in the nation
against the run. This year’s team still ranks high against the run, #14 overall, but hasn’t faced many good rushing offenses. Oregon led last year’s game 14-7 when Stanford converted a 4th-and-1 with 2:00 left in regulation, scored a TD, then won in OT. Stanford QB Kevin Hogan didn’t do much in last year’s game, hasn’t done much this season. If anyone can find a way to win a game against an opponent that out-gains it by more than 230 yards per game, it’s Stanford, but…
OREGON, 34-20.

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STATFOX FORECASTER
WASHINGTON (107) AT MINNESOTA (108)

Latest Line: Minnesota +2.0; Total: 49.5

The Vikings try to snap a four-game losing skid when they face the roller-coaster Redskins for the fourth straight year on Thursday. Washington has alternated losses and wins in each of the past six games (both SU and ATS), rolling up 500 total yards in last week's 30-24 OT win versus the Chargers. Last week's 27-23 loss in Dallas, in which TE Kyle Rudolph broke his foot, drops Minnesota to 0-7 on U.S. soil. His team's defense is allowing 36.7 PPG and 413 total YPG at home. This series is 5-5 (SU and ATS) since 1992, but the Redskins won 38-26 last year behind QB Robert Griffin III’s 138 rushing yards and 2 TD.
Forecaster: Minnesota 28, Washington 25

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JOE GAVAZZI

NBA
LA Clippers at Miami Heat (-4-) 7:00 TNT
4* LA Clippers +4

When not outscoring the Chicago Bulls 31-5 in the first half of the opening game (how good does that look now?), the Heat have been sleep walking through the first 5 games of the NBA schedule at 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS. They may be able to flip the switch against the high-profile Clippers. But LAC was clearly looking forward to this meeting tonight in dropping a 98-90 decision in Orlando. Clippers actually playing better ball right now than the defending champs making them the percentage side as the underdog.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

NHL
Islanders at Canes
This won't be a walk in the park tonight but after last night loss I fully expect the Islanders to get back to winning ways. Hurricanes ended there losing streak last night but can only see them going back to there old ways and with a avg of conceding 3.0 goals a game against an Islanders team hitting 3.13 a game, we take the moneyline win.

1 UNIT - ISLANDERS ML

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GoodFella

Thursday Night NFL Team Total

MINNESOTA VIKINGS - OVER 24 PTS

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Crusher additional plays
Hockey
Montreal Canadiens+104 over Ottawa Sens
St Louis Blues -1.5 over Calgary Flames
Boston Bruins -1.5 over Florida

Basketball
Miami Heat -5.5 over LA Clippers
Rockets -13 over LA Lakers
Denver + Atlanta OVER 202.5

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BANKROLL SPORTS
10* Stanford Cardinals +10.5 (CFB) / 9:00pm
5* Baylor Bears -14.5 (CFB) / 7:30pm
4* Minnesota Vikings +1 (NFL) / 8:35pm
3* Oregon @ Stanford Under 61.5 (CFB) / 9:00pm
3* Los Angeles Lakers +13.5 (NBA) / 9:35pm
3* Clippers @ Heat Under 209.5 (NBA) / 7: