11-9-13

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INSIDE THE PRESSBOX / PHIL STEELE
CFB BEST BETS
#119 Iowa
#151 Tulane
#165 Texas
#198 Arizona
#201 San Diego St. - "Upset POW"
"HIGH SCORING POW"
#123 Smu - Cincinnati

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CKO
11 MISSOURI over *Kentucky
Late Score Forecast:
MISSOURI 41 - *Kentucky 13
10 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA over
*California
Late Score Forecast:
SO CALIFORNIA 38 - *California 10
10 *LOUISIANA-MONROE over
Arkansas St.
Late Score Forecast:
*LA.-MONROE 38 - Arkansas St. 20
10 *LA TECH over Southern Miss
Late Score Forecast:
*LA TECH 36 - Southern Miss 10

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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
TULANE by 3 over Utsa
MICHIGAN by 17 over Nebraska
TEXAS A&M by 31 over Mississippi State
AUBURN by 18 over Tennessee

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE

5★ BEST BET
Virginia Tech over MIAMI FLA by 10
Frank Beamer was like money in the bank when playing the
Hurricanes during the Larry Coker/Randy Shannon years, going
8-1 ATS, but Al Golden has covered two straight against the
Beamster since taking over at Miami in 2011. However, if the Noles
didn’t expose every Miami weakness in that ‘Bubble Bursting’ loss
on Saturday night, the Canes have certainly been diminished by
the loss of star RB Duke Johnson to a broken ankle. The Hokies
have plenty of weaknesses themselves, most recently at QB as
Logan Thomas has tossed 6 interceptions en route to back-to-back
losses against Duke and BC, bringing a 6-game winning streak
to an abrupt halt. Still, this becomes an extremely important
game for Tech, as an upset would put them in the driver’s seat
for the ACC championship game, equaling Miami at 4-2 in the
conference while owning the tie-breaker against both the Canes
and Georgia Tech. Also, the Gobblers fall squarely into the
SMART BOX this week, a good thing for November considering
they have outstatted all but one of their opponents this season.
This looks promising for Beamer as Miami has now allowed over
500 yards in consecutive weeks. Our well-oiled machine adds its
two cents: ACC conference favorites are just 3-9 ATS after facing
Jimbo Fisher’s Seminoles, including 0-5 ATS when facing a .400 or
greater opponent.

4★ BEST BET
Kansas St over TEXAS TECH by 8
Despite the disparity of the W-L records, this is a very even matchup.
The Red Raiders have dropped back-to-back games after a 7-0 start
and their wobbly defense has allowed foes season high – or 2nd
high – yards in their last three games. Tech is also 0-3-1 ATS as
favorites in the fi rst of back-to-back home games and 2-6 ATS as
conference home chalk of 7 or less points. On the fl ip side, wily
veteran Bill Snyder now rivals Steve Spurrier with a spread record of
106-64-1 in conference games, including 26-9 as a pick or dog of 7 or
less points. Snyder’s Wildcats currently stand 6-1 ATS as conference
road dogs of 7 points or less while also sporting a 9-1 ATS mark in
road tilts following back-to-back home games. In addition, KSU is
starting to hit on all defensive cylinders now, having held its last
four foes to season low – or 2nd low – yardage marks. With Marc’s
‘ONLY THE GOOD DIE YOUNG’ angle from the 2009 Black Book
also at work here, it makes Grandpa’s work that much easier. The
Clincher: The Red Raiders are in a ‘Double Bubble Burst’ role
and 94% angles defi nitely tend to pique our interest. See
this week’s AWESOME ANGLE

INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
Michigan is 5-13 SU and 1-16-1 ATS in its last eighteen games when looking to avenge a
conference loss.

AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
PLAY AGAINST any college football favorite of 20 or less points from Game Six out off two losses
exact if they were undefeated prior to the losses – provided they won 9 or fewer
games last season and their fi rst loss of the season was by 12 or less points.
Play AGAINST: TEXAS TECH
ATS W-L Record Since 1992:15-1(94%)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE
COLLEGIATE
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
BAYLOR over Oklahoma RATING: 1 - (W)
ARIZONA STATE over Utah RATING: 1
SO CALIFORNIA over California RATING: 2
TEXAS A&M over Mississippi State RATING: 3
EAST CAROLINA over Tulsa RATING: 4
ALABAMA over Lsu RATING: 4
MISSISSIPPI over Arkansas RATING: 5
MISSOURI over Kentucky RATING: 5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BETS
BYU over *WISCONSIN by 6
SMU over *CINCINNATI by 3
*TENNESSEE over AUBURN by 7
BOSTON COLLEGE over *NEW MEXICO STATE by 37
RECOMMENDED
*EAST CAROLINA over TULSA by 25
*NAVY over HAWAII by 26
*CENTRAL FLORIDA over HOUSTON by 20
SAN DIEGO STATE over *SAN JOSE STATE by 3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS
****BEST BETS
ALABAMA* over LSU by 31
WYOMING* over FRESNO STATE by 7
PREFERRED
Texas Tech* over Kansas State by 14
Texas over West Virginia* by 19
Michigan* over Nebraska by 17
Pittsburgh over Notre Dame by 7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

RED SHEET
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Missouri 45 - KENTUCKY 17 - (12:00 EST)
RATING 89: MISSOURI
ALABAMA 38 - Lsu 13 - (8:00 - CBS)
RATING 89: ALABAMA
Southern California 48 - CALIFORNIA 13
RATING 88: SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
MICHIGAN 44 - Nebraska 24 - (3:30 - ABC)
RATING 88: MICHIGAN
Auburn 51 - TENNESSEE 24 - (12:00)
RATING 88: AUBURN

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POWER PLAYS
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
4.5* MINNESOTA 30 PENN ST 17
4.5* NORTH CAROLINA 38 VIRGINIA 15
4.5* COLORADO ST 43 NEVADA 27
4* MISSOURI 36 KENTUCKY 15
4* FLORIDA 26 VANDERBILT 12
4* TULANE 24 (+) UTSA 28
4* TEXAS 35 WEST VIRGINIA 24
4* NORTH TEXAS (if -24 or less) 42 UTEP 11
4* ARIZONA 28 UCLA 26
4* ALABAMA 38 LSU 17
3* IOWA 26 PURDUE 8
3* DUKE 33 NC STATE 19
3* MARSHALL 50 UAB 24
3* ARIZONA ST 38 UTAH 26
3* USC 34 CAL 12
3* TEXAS A&M 48 MISSISSIPPI ST 26
2* FRESNO ST 44 WYOMING 32
1* NEBRASKA 32 (+) MICHIGAN 37

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POWERSWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
4* FLORIDA over Vanderbilt

3* Texas over WEST VIRGINIA -
3* Virginia Tech over MIAMI, FL

2* Nebraska (+) over MICHIGAN
2* MARYLAND over Syracuse

UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Play:SMU +10 over CINCINNATI
TECHNICAL PLAY OF THE WEEK ........VIRGINIA TECH
REVENGE PLAY OF THE WEEK ...........TCU
SITUATIONAL PLAY OF THE WEEK .....MARYLAND

[Can'tPickAWinner]

aturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action

Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+35, 55)

As national title talk for the Seminoles goes, so goes Heisman Trophy chatter for quarterback Jameis Winston. The redshirt freshman leads the ACC in total offense (331.9 yards per game), passing average (312.8), pass efficiency (201.1) and passing touchdowns (24). Winston's 2,502 passing yards is already the sixth-highest total among ACC freshmen all-time and he is on pace to become the most prolific freshman quarterback in conference history.

Michael Campanaro, the Demon Deacons' all-time leading receiver with 229 receptions for 2,506 yards, is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks with a broken collarbone. Sherman Ragland III will be leaned on in Campanaro's absence and the sophomore performed well against Syracuse, stepping up to set career bests by grabbing 10 receptions for 91 yards. Quarterback Tanner Price ranks fourth in the ACC with 1,956 passing yards,

LINE: The Seminoles have held steady as 35-point favorites, with the total currently 55.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies.
TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
* Demon Deacons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 13-3 in Wake Forest's last 16 games on fieldturf.

Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (+13.5, 56)

Redshirt freshman QB Maty Mauk has kept the Tigers' high-powered offense on track with James Franklin (shoulder) sidelined, and he had his best game yet in a 31-3 win over Tennessee last week. Missouri rolled up 339 rushing yards against the Volunteers and ranks second in the SEC with 237.2 yards per game on the ground. The defense has been overshadowed somewhat but Missouri ranks fourth in the SEC in scoring defense (20.6).

The Wildcats have struggled in coach Mark Stoops' first season, but they've been close to pulling off a quality win with narrow defeats at South Carolina and Mississippi State. The offense was impressive last week, albeit against Alabama State, as Whitlow rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns and threw for two more scores. Kentucky has faced trouble stopping the run, allowing 197.6 yards per game.

LINE: The Tigers opened -14 and are now -13.5, with the total set at 56.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an SU win.
* Over is 18-7-1 in Kentucky's last 26 games following an ATS win.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 55)

The Tigers feature the nation’s sixth-best rushing attack (306.2 yards per game), led by running back Tre Mason, who rushed for 168 yards and four touchdowns last week to earn SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Auburn did not know if quarterback Nick Marshall would start last week because of a shoulder injury, but the junior finished with 177 yards of total offense and is expected to be completely healthy against Tennessee.

The Volunteers have to shore up their run defense after allowing a season-high 339 yards on the ground against Missouri. Tennessee has allowed 76 points the past two weeks in losses to Alabama and Missouri. Dobbs completed 26-of-42 passes against Missouri and is the third freshman to start at quarterback for Tennessee in the past four years.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 7-point fave, while the total opened at 55.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies are in the forecast with temperatures in the high-50s.
TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Volunteers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Over is 9-4 in Tennessee's last 13 conference games.

Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 59.5)

Former walk-on defensive end Ryan Mueller was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week after posting seven tackles (including two for loss) and one sack. Sparked by Mueller’s effort, the Wildcats allowed only one offensive snap inside their 20 and held Iowa State to 249 total yards, narrowly missing out on its first shutout in a conference game since 2003.

Despite being the focal point of the Cowboys’ defense last Saturday, Jace Amaro set career highs with 15 catches and 174 receiving yards – becoming the first Red Raider since Michael Crabtree to record at least eight receptions in eight straight games. Amaro also logged his fourth consecutive 100-yard game, the most by a Texas Tech player since Crabtree posted seven in a row in 2007.

LINE: Texas Tech opened as at 2.5-point favorite and the total opened at 59.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures are expected to be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Red Raiders are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss.
* Over is 23-9 in Texas Tech's last 32 games.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-19, 66.5)

The Bulldogs are on pace to break a 31-year-old school-record for total offense, averaging 447.1 yards, and Prescott is the catalyst. He has rushed for 100 yards or more three times and has accounted for 17 touchdowns. The Bulldogs' secondary was shredded against LSU and Auburn but has allowed only 312 passing yards over the past two games.

Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel has put on quite an encore after his Heisman Trophy campaign as a redshirt freshman, and he ranks fifth in the nation with 2,867 passing yards to go along with 564 rushing yards and accounting for 34 touchdowns. He has one of the nation's top receivers in Mike Evans, who needs 61 receiving yards to surpass Ryan Swope's school record of 1,207 in 2011. D

LINE: Texas A&M is a 19-point favorite after opening at -18. The total has held steady at 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass.
* Under is 9-3 in Texas A&M's last 12 games following an ATS win.

Brigham Young Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers (-8, 55.5)

Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy leads the Cougars’ defense, ranking second among active FBS players in career sacks with 26. Hill is a dangerous dual threat, passing for 339 yards and three touchdowns in BYU’s 37-20 victory over Boise State on Oct. 25. The sophomore is sixth in the nation averaging 357.5 yards of total offense per game, and has completed 65.4 percent of his passes during the Cougars’ five-game winning streak.

White scored two touchdowns in last week’s 28-9 victory over Iowa, and leads all active FBS players in career rushing touchdowns (41) and total touchdowns (43). The Badgers average 7.26 yards per play, leading the Big Ten and ranking seventh in the nation. The Wisconsin defense gets particularly tough in the red zone, leading the country in holding opponents out of the end zone 61.9 percent of the time.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -7.5 and is now -8. The total is currently 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Cougars are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Badgers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games.
* Under is 16-5 in BYU's last 21 games against teams with winning records.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action

Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-31, 53.5)

No. 11 Oklahoma State knows it can't overlook visiting Kansas on Saturday, even though the Jayhawks enter with a five-game losing streak and haven't won a Big 12 Conference game since 2010. Kansas quarterback Jake Heaps needs 84 passing yards to reach 5,000 for his career and could have receivers Tony Pierson (concussion), Rodriguez Coleman (leg), Josh Ford (concussion) and Andrew Turzilli (ankle) back this week.

First-year defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer has the Cowboys ranked in the top 20 in several categories, including third-down defense (ninth, 30.2 percent), red-zone defense (14th, 71.4 percent) and rushing defense (18th, 122.9 yards per game). The Cowboys, who have created at least one turnover in 16 straight games, are tied for fifth nationally with a plus-10 turnover margin.

LINE: Oklahoma State is a 31-point favorite after opening at -30.5. The total has held steady at 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.
* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Kansas is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (+6.5, 63.5)

No. 24 Arizona State visits Utah for a Pac-12 Conference matchup on Saturday. The Sun Devils have defeated the Utes by a lopsided margin in each of the last two meetings, with the most recent occurring in Tempe. Taylor Kelly passed for 326 yards and three scores in last season's meeting as the Sun Devils scored 37 points on the Utes with 512 yards of total offense.

Coming off a 55-21 blowout of Washington State, the Sun Devils own a one-game lead in the Pac-12 South, and a win against Utah will only get them closer to a spot in the conference championship. The Utes are no strangers to upsets, having done just that to then-No. 5 Stanford earlier this season, but the offense potentially could be without Travis Wilson. The standout quarterback suffered a sprained finger late in the first half against Arizona.

LINE: ASU opened -7 and is now -6.5. The total opened 64.5 and is down to 63.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Utes are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following an SU loss.
* Over is 18-4 in Arizona State's last 22 games following an ATS win.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-7, 44)

Logan Thomas posted a career-high 429 yards of total offense against Boston College to give him 9,463 for his career, moving him past Tyrod Taylor for the most in school history. Thomas also committed two of the Hokies’ four giveaways and has turned the ball over 31 times since the start of the 2012 season – the third-highest individual total in FBS over that span.

Miami's Duke Johnson – the second-leading rusher in the conference – will miss the rest of the season after he broke his right ankle against Florida State. Dallas Crawford, who replaced an injured Johnson during the team’s Oct. 17 victory over North Carolina with 137 yards rushing and two scores, will be one of three backs to fill the void of a player who posted an ACC-high 1,393 all-purpose yards.

LINE: Miami opened as a 6.5-point fave, but has been bet up to -7. The total is unmoved at 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers.
TRENDS:

* Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Hurricanes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.

Houston Cougars at Central Florida Knights (-10.5, 64)

No. 21 Central Florida looks to claim its fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Houston with first place in the American Athletic Conference on the line. The Knights, who have scored 100 total points in their last two games, bring a dynamic offense led by quarterback Brian Bortles. With 15 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season, Bortles has proven both efficient and lethal through seven games.

The Cougars, too, have one lone slip-up fading farther into the rearview. They're coming off conference wins against Rutgers and South Florida, and boast the 12th-best scoring offense in the country at 41.4 points per game. Freshman John O'Korn provides an equal, if not stronger match for Bortles having thrown for more yardage, 2,121 yards, and touchdowns, 22, with just four interceptions.

LINE: The Knights opened -11.5-point but are now -10.5. The total is set at 64.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Cougars are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
* Under is 7-2 in Houston's last nine games following a bye week.

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-13, 55)

Running back Jeremy Hill faces a tough test against the stout Alabama run defense, but he collected 107 yards and a score in last year’s 21-17 loss to the Crimson Tide - and he’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season with 12 touchdowns. Wide receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have eight touchdown receptions apiece, but quarterback Zach Mettenberger has struggled over his last three games (four TDs and five interceptions).

Quarterback AJ McCarron, who is 33-2 as a starter, has entered the Heisman Trophy discussion by completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns with two interceptions over the last seven games. Alabama’s offensive line hasn't allowed a sack since the third quarter against Ole Miss on Sept. 28, and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for 17 rushing touchdowns this season.

LINE: Alabama has seen a sharp bump in the odds from an opening of -11 to -13. The total is 55.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
* Under is 7-3-1 in Alabama's last 11 home games.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+4, 51)

No. 25 Notre Dame has made a habit of doing just enough to win lately, which also sums up how its recent meetings with Pittsburgh have gone. The Fighting Irish have won four in a row entering Saturday’s road contest against the Panthers, including three by four points or fewer after a 38-34 victory over Navy last weekend. Notre Dame’s last five games against Pittsburgh have been decided by an average of four points.

The Fighting Irish are the only FBS team with five wins by seven points or fewer this season. The Panthers, who have dropped three straight in this series, have lost two straight and three of four overall after falling 21-10 at Georgia Tech last Saturday. Despite the loss, defensive tackle Aaron Donald had a day to remember with 11 tackles (including six for losses – the most by a player in FBS in 2013), two forced fumbles and a sack.
LINE: The Irish opened as 5-point faves, but the line has moved to -4. The total has held steady at 51.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies.
TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Panthers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last six games against independents.

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-1.5, 56)

In addition to the return of rushing leader Jordon James to full health, the Bruins are also expected to have linebacker Eric Kendricks in the starting lineup against Arizona. Kendricks, who is fifth in the Pac-12 at eight tackles a game, did not play versus Colorado due to a shoulder injury. The Bruins enter the game sixth in the conference in total defense, one spot behind the Wildcats.

Arizona's B.J. Denker is the second-lowest rated quarterback in the Pac-12, although he has posted seven touchdown passes and one interception in the last four games. The Wildcats don’t have a receiver with more than 21 catches. Denker has scored 11 rushing touchdowns this season, two more than any previous Arizona quarterback.

LINE: What opened as a pick has shifted to Arizona -1.5. The total has risen slightly from 55.5 to 56.
WEATHER: Wind will blow south across the length of the field at 7 mph with temperatures in the mid-60s.
TRENDS:

* Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in Arizona's last 10 home games.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Wyoming Cowboys (+9, 79)

Bulldogs quarterback Derek Carr ranks second nationally in both passing (382.6 yards per game) and touchdown throws (28), and the trio of wide receivers Davante Adams, Josh Harper and Isaiah Burse has combined for 195 catches. Carr threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-14 home victory over Wyoming last season, while Harper had a school-record 17 catches last week for 253 yards and two scores.

The Cowboys have struggled defensively all season, but their up-tempo offense could cause trouble for Fresno State. Running back Shaun Wick gained 234 yards on 17 carries against San Jose State, and underrated quarterback Brett Smith ranks eighth nationally in total offense at 349.8 yards per game. Fresno State’s explosive offense thrives on the big play, which could mean trouble for the Cowboys defense.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened -11 and are now -9. The total is currently 79.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 9 mph.
TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 11-4 in Wyoming's last 15 games following an ATS win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Projected BCS bowls spreads: Buckeyes bound for title snub
By MATT FARGO

Each week, Covers Expert Matt Fargo will give his projected matchups and spreads for the five BCS Bowls. Auburn and Michigan State enter the picture and with some huge matchups this week, big changes could be coming if any upsets take place:

BCS Championship: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oregon Ducks

Projected line: Alabama -3

Alabama has seen its margin shrinking but should it run the table, the Tide will be guaranteed its third straight BCS Championship invite. A visit from LSU will tell us a lot this coming Saturday.

Florida State is actually in the No. 2 spot right now but that won't last after this week, should Oregon win at Stanford Thursday. Unfortunately for Florida State, the remaining schedule is not strong enough to jump back over Oregon. An undefeated season would still keep it out of the BCS Championship.

Oregon has relatively tough games remaining against Arizona and Oregon State plus the Pac-12 Championship after its game against the Cardinal. It’s hard to see the Ducks losing but we said the same thing last year and they lost after a 10-0 start to Stanford at home.

Fiesta Bowl: Baylor Bears vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

Projected line: Baylor -19

There’s no change here. Baylor has been close to untouchable but it has still yet to play anyone. That changes shortly. The Bears close the season against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU but they are still the team to make the biggest run at this point.

Fresno State was projected by many to be a BCS buster and, so far, the Bulldogs are holding up their end of the bargain. While a couple tests remain, they should be able to win out. Fresno State has to finish ahead of at least one conference champion which comes from an AQ conference and right now that looks like the AAC. Should the Bulldogs lose, Northern Illinois would sneak in here. Should the Huskies falter as well, Central Florida will be coming.

Orange Bowl: Florida State Seminoles vs. Michigan State Spartans

Projected line: Florida State -13

While the Seminoles currently sit in the No. 2 spot in the BCS standings, it’s by a very slim margin and it won’t last should Oregon win Thursday. So for the sake of not making another shuffle, Florida State will be going to the Orange Bowl as the ACC Champion.

The Orange Bowl gets the first at-large selection after the other bowls make their replacement conference affiliation choices and right now that looks like Michigan State. The Spartans are undefeated in the Big Ten and are likely to play Ohio State in the championship game. If the Spartans lose to the Buckeyes and Wisconsin wins out, the Badgers could be in line for this spot so the Orange Bowl would have to decide which team is more attractive.

Rose Bowl: Stanford Cardinal vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Projected line: Stanford -1

The Rose Bowl matchup remains the same as Stanford would be chosen over a higher-ranked team based on the affiliation with the Pac-12. The Cardinal have a home date with Oregon Thursday and a win there will restructure everything. That may be too much to ask though.

The Buckeyes’ lone roadblocks to an undefeated season are a game at Michigan and the Big Ten Championship, which looks to be against Michigan State. The only way Ohio State can get to the BCS Championship is if Oregon and Florida State both lose. The Buckeyes could be the first team ever from a BCS conference to go undefeated two straight seasons and not have a shot at the BCS Championship either time.

Sugar Bowl: Auburn Tigers vs. Central Florida Knights

Projected line: Auburn -6

The Sugar Bowl would get Central Florida because, as an AQ, it has to go somewhere and the Sugar would likely grab the Knights over Fresno State or Northern Illinois. But if the Bulldogs and Huskies don’t make it into the Top 12, a more attractive option would be taken. Clemson and UCF would end up in the Fiesta Bowl, which has the fourth at-large spot.

Last week, we had Texas A&M here but Auburn made a solid jump up this week as it continues to win and win big. The Tigers would have to beat both Tennessee and Georgia as a loss to Alabama will likely not take them out of the Sugar as long as they win those prior two games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik Golden Nugget Contest

2nd Round- the #2 overall seed, 5-2 first round

1. Tulane Under 51
2. Hawaii +17
3. Michigan Over 57.5
4. Nevada/Col St Over 65
5. Wyoming +10
6. SDSU/SJSU OVER 56.5
7. Chargers +7.5 BEST BET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Betting Weather Report Saturday's Forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your college football bets for Saturday's matchups:

*** TCU Horned Frogs at Iowa State Cyclones (+7.5, 46)

Temperatures will be in the low 50s with a cross-field wind blowing west-to-east at 13 mph.

*** Iowa Hawkeyes at Purdue Boilermakers (+14.5, 45)

Temperatures will be in the low 50s with with a 15 mph wind blowing across Ross-Ade stadium.

*** Western Michigan Broncos at Eastern Michigan Eagles (+2.5, 58.5)

Temperatures will be in the low 50s with a 20 mph wind blowing across the field.

*** Penn State Nittany Lions at Minnesota Golden Gophers (-2.5, 48)

Temperatures will be in the low 40s with a cross field wind blowing at 15 mph.

*** SMU Mustangs at Cincinnati Bearcats (-9, 65.5)

Temperatures will be in the mid 50s with a 13 mph win blowing towards the NE endzone.

*** Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan Wolverines (-6.5, 57.5)

At Ann Arbor, the temperature will be in the low 50s with a 16 mph cross field wind.

*** BYU Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers (-8, 55.5)

Temperatures will be in the high 40s with a cross field wind of 13 mph.

*** Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-19, 66.5)

There is a 17 percent chance of rain at College Station with temperatures in the low 70s.

*** Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-7, 44)

There is a 40 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.

*** Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies (-28, 60.5)

There is a 41 percent chance of rain, which increases to 71 percent later in the game.