11-9-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Minnesota Golden Gophers a Statistical Anomaly

According to Phil Steele of Phil Steele's College Football Preview, the Minnesota Golden Gophers are a major statistical anomaly.

"Since 1992 (21 yrs) only TWICE has a team pulled 3 straight upsets as a TD plus underdog. Arizona in 2006 and Minnesota the last 3 weeks!

The Gophers started with a 20-17 victory at Northwestern as a 12.5-point dog on Oct. 19.

Next, the Gophers defeated Nebraska 34-23 as 10.5-point home dogs.

Finally, last week, the Gophers defeated the Indiana Hoosiers 42-39 as 7.5-point road dogs.

The Gophers host the Penn State Nittany Lions this weekend and are 1.5-point home faves.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

Saturday College FB
North Carolina St. at Duke (-9) 5:00 ET ESPNU
4* Duke

First year NC St. HC Doeren, former HC at N. Illinois, is not used to these kinds of struggles. While his former team is again averaging over 44 PPG with an all-league QB, Doeren’s new team the Wolfpack, is struggling at 23 PPG with ample problems at the signal caller position. Last week, NC St. blew a 10-0 lead against rival NC in an eventual 27-19 loss. As a result, it is quite unusual to see a 3-5 SU ATS Wolfpack on a 4 game losing streak, looking up in the standings at 6-2 SU ATS Duke who is on a 4 game winning streak. The Blue Devils last victory clinched a Bowl invitation with a 13-10 win at VA Tech. With 2 weeks to rest, Duke is plenty pumped to break a 6 game series stranglehold by State and extend their record of 6-1 ATS as home chalk.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness' 10* Conference Total G.o.y.
Over Kansas / Oklahoma St

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LSU at Alabama: What bettors need to know

LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-13, 55)

Top-ranked Alabama’s bid for its third consecutive national championship continues Saturday when the Crimson Tide host rival Louisiana State, which has won five of the last six meetings in Bryant-Denny Stadium. The 12th-ranked Tigers have fallen out of the national title race, but Alabama-LSU games are invariably worth the high price of admission. The last six regular season meetings have each been decided by less than 10 points, with an average margin of victory of just 5.3.

The Crimson Tide hope to begin November where they left off after allowing a total of 20 points while scoring 45 or more in all four games last month. LSU is 2-10-1 all-time against No. 1-ranked teams, but coach Les Miles and his players are eager to snap the Tigers’ two-game losing skid against Alabama. “This is a chance to showcase our talent,” LSU defensive tackle Ego Ferguson said. “It's like an Ali-Foreman fight every time we play. The intensity level is like no other game.”

TV: 8 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: 'Bama opened -10.5 and is now -13. The total opened at 55.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with mostly cloudy skies.

ABOUT LSU (7-2, 3-2 SEC): Running back Jeremy Hill faces a tough test against the stout Alabama run defense, but he collected 107 yards and a score in last year’s 21-17 loss to the Crimson Tide - and he’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season with 12 touchdowns. Wide receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have eight touchdown receptions apiece, but quarterback Zach Mettenberger has struggled over his last three games (four TDs and five interceptions). Linebacker Lamin Barrow has a team-high 64 tackles for the Tigers, who are ranked third in the SEC in total defense.

ABOUT ALABAMA (8-0, 5-0): Quarterback AJ McCarron, who is 33-2 as a starter, has entered the Heisman Trophy discussion by completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns with two interceptions over the last seven games. Alabama’s offensive line hasn't allowed a sack since the third quarter against Ole Miss on Sept. 28, and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for 17 rushing touchdowns this season. The nation's best scoring defense (9.8 points per game) includes safety Landon Collins, a New Orleans native who ranks second on the team with 34 tackles.

TRENDS:

* The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Tigers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Alabama.
* Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Crimson Tide are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in November.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tigers FB J.C. Copeland is expected to start after missing the last two games with a concussion.

2. The Crimson Tide are 70-3 when leading at halftime under coach Nick Saban.

3. Mettenberger is eight yards shy of becoming the first player in LSU history to throw for 2,500 or more in back-to-back seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Auburn at Tennessee: What bettors need to know

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 55)

Auburn’s season of redemption rolls into Knoxville on Saturday as the 10th-ranked Tigers face a Tennessee squad that has dropped five of its past seven. One year after going 3-9 and finishing winless in the SEC, Auburn sits one game behind SEC West leader and top-ranked Alabama, with the Iron Bowl looming large Nov. 30. But the Volunteers are 4-1 at home, with the loss coming to Georgia in overtime.

Freshman Joshua Dobbs makes his second start at quarterback for Tennessee in place of the injured Justin Worley. Dobbs presents a dual threat for the Tigers’ defense, throwing for 240 yards and running for 45 in last week’s 31-3 loss at Missouri. The Tigers downed Arkansas 35-17 last week and have averaged 43.4 points during their five-game winning streak.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 7-point fave. The total opened at 55.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s. Wind will blow across the field at 10 mph.

ABOUT AUBURN (8-1, 4-1 SEC): The Tigers feature the nation’s sixth-best rushing attack (306.2 yards per game), led by running back Tre Mason, who rushed for 168 yards and four touchdowns last week to earn SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Auburn did not know if quarterback Nick Marshall would start last week because of a shoulder injury, but the junior finished with 177 yards of total offense and is expected to be completely healthy against Tennessee. The Tigers are third in the SEC in scoring defense (20.1) and have surrendered 17 points or less in three of their past four contests.

ABOUT TENNESSEE (4-5, 1-4): The Volunteers have to shore up their run defense after allowing a season-high 339 yards on the ground against Missouri. Tennessee has allowed 76 points the past two weeks in losses to Alabama and Missouri. Dobbs completed 26-of-42 passes against Missouri and is the third freshman to start at quarterback for Tennessee in the past four years.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 10-4 in Volunteers last 14 vs. a team with a winning record.
* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Tennessee ranks last in the SEC in rushing defense, allowing 201.7 yards per contest and 5.1 yards per attempt.

2. Auburn has beaten Tennessee five consecutive times dating to 2003.

3. The Tigers mark the seventh ranked team the Volunteers have faced this season, and third consecutive top 10 opponent.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

English Breakfast: Premier League betting cheat sheet

This weekend marks the last in the Premier League before yet another break for International competition. Liverpool will be hungry for points after being blanked 2-0 by leaders Arsenal at the Emirates last time out.

We talk to Aron Black of bet365 about some of the action coming in on Saturday's fixtures.

Aston Villa v Cardiff (+105, +240, +310)

Why bet Aston Villa: Prior to last week's scoreless draw at West Ham, the Villains suffered a pair of tough home losses to Spurs and Everton. The side will be desperate for points, currently sitting 14th and in danger of reaching the relegation zone.

Key players out/doubtful: Andreas Weimann, Jores Okore, Charles N'Zogbia, Gabriel Agbonlahor

Why bet Cardiff: Cardiff, the city and club, will be buzzing after winning the first ever Welsh derby in top-flight football. Steven Caulker's 62' goal against Swansea will go down in the history books and could be a huge motivation factor for the Bluebirds moving forward.

Key players out/doubtful: Andreas Cornelius

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Aston Villa has not scored in its previous four matches in the Premier League.

Chelsea v West Brom (-350, +500, +1100)

Why bet Chelsea: The Blues suffered a big letdown last week after their 2-0 defeat away to Newcastle. They did bounce back in fine fashion midweek with another convincing win over Schalke in Champions League. The Blues had won three straight (and four of five) prior to the Newcastle loss. Plus, they're at Stamford Bridge, where Jose Mourinho never loses.

Key players out/doubtful: Fernando Torres, Marco van Ginkel

Why bet West Brom: The Baggies bounced back from a 4-1 loss at Liverpool with a 2-0 victory over league doormat Crystal Palace. They are capable of defeating Chelsea, having won two of the last three versus the London club, but those came during home fixtures.

Key players out/doubtful: Zoltán Gera, Ben Foster, Billy Jones

2012-13 fixture result: Chelsea 1, West Brom 0

Key betting note: The Blues have scored at least two goals in their last 10 League matches at Stamford Bridge.

Where the action is: "Chelsea are taking the bulk of action for the FT result, but at -350 it’s a very steep, though justified price and is mainly a parlay banker for the weekend. Samuel Eto’o sees the bulk of the goalscorer action at +450 First Goalscorer and To Score Anytime at +120."

Crystal Palace v Everton (+550, +300, -163)

Why bet Crystal Palace: Palace has one league victory. That victory came at home. So there's that.

Key players out/doubtful: Adlène Guédioura, Patrick McCarthy, Jonathan Williams

Why bet Everton: Everton had a two match winning streak snapped with a stale 0-0 draw against visitors Tottenham. They'll look to secure a full three points against relegation-bound Palace. If Romelelu Lukaku plays after picking up a slight knock following a collision with Spurs keeper Hugo Lloris, the big Belgian will look to dominate the ball and the scoresheet.

Key players out/doubtful: Arouna Koné, Darron Gibson

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Crystal Palace has lost seven-straight League matches.

Liverpool v Fulham (-400, +550, +1400)

Why bet Liverpool: The Reds will continue to fight toward the top spot in the table after losing at Arsenal one week ago. Goalscoring-duo Luis Suarez and Daniel Sturridge will look to dominate here much like they did against a helpless West Brom two weeks ago.

Key players out/doubtful: Iago Aspas, José Enrique

Why bet Fulham: The Cottagers had a really good two-game stretch where they posted victories over Stoke and Crystal Palace. It was short lived, however, as they have no lost back-to-back efforts. They need to find a good stretch of form or else will be in the market for a new manager.

Key players out/doubtful: Sascha Riether, Matthew Briggs, Hugo Rodallega

2012-13 fixture result: Liverpool 4, Fulham 0

Key betting note: Liverpool has kept Fulham off the scoresheet in six of the last seven matches (all competitions) at Anfield.

Southampton v Hull (-175, +290, +650)

Why bet Southampton: The Saints own the league's stingiest defense, having allowed just four goals on the season. One of which was last week's incredibly lucky goal by Stoke keeper Asmir Begovic. Still, Southampton is one of the better stores of the season and haven't lost since a 1-0 defeat away to Norwich on Aug. 31.

Key players out/doubtful: Guly

Why bet Hull: After a pair of back-to-back losses, the Tigers put a notch in the winning column with a 1-0 victory over Sunderland. They currently sit a very respectable 10th in the table and have played very disciplined football - at home at least. Nine of the Tigers 10 goals conceded have come in road games.

Key players out/doubtful: James Chester, Sone Aluko, Allan McGregor

2012-13 fixture result: N/A

Key betting note: Southampton has kept a clean sheet in its last four Premier League home games.

Where the action is: "The FT result market sees apparent value in the Saints at -175, but a midweek away game at Sunderland is definitely built into the price which on another week would prob be closer to -200. With goals most likely at a premium, Over 2.5 goals is available at +120, with the Under at -154."

Norwich v West Ham (+163, +230, +190)

Why bet Norwich: We keep waiting for the Canaries to turn for the better, but it just hasn't happened. Norwich was throttled 7-0 by Manchester City one week ago and nothing seems to be going right for the club. No better place to reverse fortunes than at home where they've collected five of their eight points.

Key players out/doubtful: Alexander Tettey, Elliott Bennett

Why bet West Ham: The Hammers may be sitting 15th in the table, but are eighth in away form. West Ham has earned six points in five away matches, but have suffered just one defeat away from Upton Park.

Key players out/doubtful: James Collins, Andy Carroll, Ricardo Vaz Te, Alou Diarra

2012-13 fixture result: Norwich 0, West Ham 0

Key betting note: There has been Under 2.5 goals scored in five of West Ham's previous six away matches.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

UFC Fight Night 32 betting: Late rounds could spell doom for Vitor

Adam Martin writes for MMAOddsbreaker.com. Follow him on Twitter @MMAdamMartin.

UFC Fight Night 32: Vitor Belfort (-235) vs. Dan Henderson (+195)

The main event of UFC Fight Night 32 is an incredible light heavyweight match-up between legends Vitor Belfort and Dan Henderson.

Despite Belfort’s recent impressive performances and Henderson looking very average as of late, there hasn’t been a ton of action going Belfort’s way and I can totally understand it as Henderson is an extremely tough out and he definitely has a chance of pulling off the upset.

When the fight was first announced, I circled Belfort down on my calendar as a future bet to make, especially since he has been sitting in the low -220s at the sportsbooks for the last few months. After all, Belfort has been a money train so far in 2013, taking out Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold in highlight reel fashion at Pick ‘em prices in both fights.

Obviously he’s a bit of a higher favorite here coming off of those two dominating victories, but I was still liking Belfort a lot for a bet up until this week at -200. But for whatever reason I am now really feeling like this fight with Henderson is much more dangerous than I first thought and I am going to pass on a bet on Belfort on the moneyline.

The thing is, even though Belfort should be too fast for Henderson and should be able to rock Hendo with strikes, Henderson has arguably the greatest chin in the history of the sport (he has never been knocked out in MMA) and if Belfort can’t finish him off with his early flurry, he could be in trouble as the fight goes into the later rounds.

Remember, this isn’t a three-round event, it’s five rounds. Even though Henderson doesn’t have the best cardio in the world, Belfort’s is actually worse and if he can’t get the finish in the first two rounds I don’t know if he’ll be able to finish the job. In fact, I believe that if Belfort can’t get the knockout in the first 10 minutes of the fight, he himself is going to be at great risk of being knocked out.

Obviously Henderson has one of the most powerful right hands in the sport, and even though he hasn’t been able to knock anyone out in his return to the UFC, consider he badly hurt Mauricio “Shogun” Rua and rocked Rashad Evans in those fights, and those are two of the top guys in the division. In the case of Rua, that’s a testament to the Brazilian’s chin that he was able to survive all five rounds with Henderson, while in the fight with Evans it was more about Henderson’s inability to pounce on Evans when he knocked him down with a jab (from his left hand actually) that cost him.

And remember, Henderson went to a razor-close decision with Lyoto Machida earlier this year, and even though Machida isn’t as aggressive as Belfort is, he is just as dangerous and Henderson was able to survive the full 15 minutes.

Although many are assuming Belfort will stand and bang with Henderson, I have a feeling that he may take the fight to the ground and try to use his underrated BJJ to get a submission win, perhaps via rear-naked choke (one of the ground moves Henderson has been unsuccessful at defending in the past). Because if he stands with Henderson, he may be at a disadvantage in a firefight since he will have the weaker chin of the two fighters.

I’m still going to pick Belfort here, but I’m going to pass on a bet at the current moneyline and instead bet a prop. In fact, I think the best bet one can make on this fight is “the fight does not go the distance” at -250. I just can’t see this fight lasting the full five rounds given both of these fighters’ gas tanks aren’t the greatest, and this prop offers great protection in case of a Henderson upset, so this is my play for tomorrow night’s main event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

136 Marshall -23.5
139/40 Penn State/Minnesota Over 47
140 Minnesota -2.5
143 Missouri -13.5
162 Colorado State -8.5
185 Utah State -13.5 Best Bet Two Units (now 14.5, so got a good price)
193 Auburn -7
198 Arizona pk
197/98 UCLA.Arizona Over 56

[Can'tPickAWinner]

J Clifton
SATURDAY * ALL TIMES EASTERN
USC - 17 - 3 PM
VIRGINIA TECH +7- 7 PM
ARIZONA STATE - 7-4PM
TULANE +9 - 2PM
LA TECH - 16 - 7 PM
LOUISIANA MONROE - 3 1/2 - 7 P
AUBURN -7 12 PM
MISSOURI -13- 12 PM
MICHIGAN - 6 1/2 - 330 P

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JMCovers - radio picks
Favorite game - Marshall
Fav game - Washington
fla
aub
ole ms
lsu

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB SOUTHERN MISS at LOUISIANA TECH
Play Against - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (LOUISIANA TECH) after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after trailing their last 2 games by 14+ points at the half
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )

CFB W MICHIGAN at E MICHIGAN
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (E MICHIGAN) after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt in 3 straight games, with 8 offensive starters returning
25-10 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.4% 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.0 units )

CFB HAWAII at NAVY
Play Against - Home favorites of 6 to 11.5 vs. the first half line (NAVY) after a dominating performance - 34+ minutes TOP, 24+ First downs
89-45 over the last 10 seasons. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
6-5 this year. ( 54.5% 0.5 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

4 Unit Play. #11/#113 Take Oregon Ducks -10.5 over Stanford Cardinal (Thursday 9 pm ESPN) If you have been reading my Fourth Down and Inches articles, you will know that I have went into great detail about how Stanford and Coach Shaw have been way to conservative this season in their play calling, especially against inferior opponents. That will not be the case tonight as they will be running into a buzz saw taking on the high-powered Oregon Ducks. I will not hesitate to lay the points on the road, especially since Stanford is banged up on the defensive line. Oregon can score points at will, and they want to make a statement in this game to move up to No. 2 in the country. The last time Oregon was in Palo Alto, they knocked off Andrew Luck by a score of 53-30, and I see a similar margin of victory in this game. Oregon is 15-5 ATS (1 push) in their last 21 games against teams with a winning record. Take the chalk on Thursday night.

4 Unit Play. #26/#130 Take Indiana Hoosiers -9 over Illinois Fighting Illini (Saturday 3:30 pm BTN) Granted, Illinois played well last week against Penn State and should have beaten the Nittany Lions, but Indiana is not Penn State. The Hoosiers are explosive on offense, and thus they will be able to cover this medium-sized number. The Hoosiers are 10th in the country scoring at 42 points per game, and Illinois has not won a conference game since 2011. Out of those 13 straight losses, Illinois has covered just two of those games. Neither one of these teams will make a bowl game. However, Indiana has an identity, and they are a lot farther along than Illinois is.

6 Unit Play. #82/#140 Take Minnesota Golden Gophers -1.5 over Penn State Nittany Lions (Saturday 12 pm ESPN 2) This is a case of name recognition of these two teams keeping this line much lower than what it should be. Minnesota continues to be underrated, and Penn State continues to be overrated. This is not the same offensive team as Penn State was in 2012, and this team has been blown out in both of their true road games this season (Indiana and Ohio State). Yes, the same Indiana team that Minnesota beat last year beat Penn State by 20 points on Oct. 5. Minnesota has been an underdog three straight weeks, and they have not only covered the spread in these games, but they have also won each game straight-up.

The difference between these two teams is that Minnesota has an identity of running the football and playing strong defense, and Penn State does not have an identity on offense or defense. Christian Hackenberg is just a freshman, and playing on the road is typically where you see young quarterbacks struggle. He has thrown four interceptions in his last three games, and this team was lucky to beat Illinois last week in overtime at home. This is the same Illinois team that has not won a conference game since 2011. Granted, Indiana had a chance to beat Minnesota last week (they were favored by 10 points), but the Gophers created a turnover down the stretch, and Penn State is nowhere near as explosive as Indiana is on offense. For whatever reason, this team has really responded to their new coach Tracy Claeys, and this is a magical season where Minnesota has a chance to make a New Year's Day Bowl Game. Minnesota is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games played during the month of November. Penn State is 0-3 ATS (1 push) in their last four road games. Play the home chalk on Saturday!

4 Unit Play. #58/#154 Take Wyoming Cowboys +10 over Fresno State Bulldogs (Saturday 10:15 pm ESPN 2) We believe that the first four games Wyoming team will show up for this game. The Cowboys are just as explosive on offense as is Fresno State, it is just their defense that has question marks. They have tried to address this by firing their defensive coordinator, and I do expect better results tonight, especially since they are playing at home. Fresno State is undefeated, but they are not a world-beater by any stretch. This is especially true on the road, where they struggled to beat Hawaii and should have lost to San Diego State. Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall. QB Brett Smith and company keep this game close for 60 minutes.

4 Unit Play. #70/#156 Take Texas Tech Red Raiders -2.5 over Kansas State Wildcats (Saturday 12 pm ABC) The Red Raiders have come back to earth after a 7-2 start to open the season. But now they return home to face the Wildcats, a team that just does not have the talent to complete against the top teams in the Big 12 this season. This is just the third road games that the Wildcats have played this season, and this will also be their third straight road loss. Texas Tech will throw the football all over the field, and I just do not believe that K-State will be able to match their offensive firepower. Texas Tech is 10-2 ATS (1 push) in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home in their previous game. K-State is not OK State, and thus if Texas Tech scores in the high 30s, they will not only win but cover the spread as well.

8 Unit Play. #92/#159 Take Wisconsin Badgers -7.5 over BYU Cougars (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN) Big 10 Game of the Year. Wisconsin just does not lose many games at Camp Randall, and that is especially true during nonconference games. This Badger team is starting to get healthy on defense with Chris Borland probable for this game, and this game has great significance for Coach Gary Anderson as he has significant ties to the Utah area. BYU has the better quarterback in Taysom Hill, but he is more of a running threat than he is a passing threat, and Wisconsin is more than capable of stopping the run. Wisconsin should also have a great scouting report since his former team Utah State already played BYU this season. BYU won that game, but the Aggies suffered an injury in the first quarter to their all-everything quarterback Chuckie Keaton. If Coach Anderson has a chance to run up the score, you can be sure that he will do that like he did last week against Iowa with a late touchdown with less than minutes to play in a game that was already decided. That is the type of coach we like for a big play. BYU should be undefeated at this point in the season, but they have a pair of shaky losses, one at Virginia and one at home against Utah. This is the same Virginia team with only two wins on the season, and their other victory came against VMI. Wisconsin is in the Top 21 teams in the country in both points scored and points allowed. BYU is a poor man's version of Wisconsin, and thus I see them losing this game by double-digits. Wisconsin has not played at home since Oct. 12, so you can be sure the fans will be ready for this game. Wisconsin has covered the spread in seven of their last eight games (one push). Teams in the West just do not have the size and stretch to matchup with strong running teams from the Midwest, and that will be the case on Saturday.

4 Unit Play. #44/#160 Take Ole Miss Rebels -16.5 over Arkansas Razorbacks (Saturday 12:21 pm ESPN 3) Arkansas is terrible, and now it is the Rebels turn to pound this team and record their sixth victory on the season. Arkansas has lost sixth straight games, and their last four losses have been over today's posted number. The fact remains that Coach Bielema cannot wait for this season to end and get better personnel into the program that better fits his system. He is pulling out all the stops, going for it on fourth down, on-side kicks, and fake punts, but nothing is working. Ole Miss and Bo Wallace will pick apart this team in what is truly a get-healthy game for the Rebels. Arkansas is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games. Ole Miss is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

4 Unit Play. #109/#206 Take UNDER 47 in Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers (Sunday 1 pm Fox) The spread on this game Monday afternoon was Green Bay -9, but with the injury to QB Aaron Rogers the line on this game has been lowered close to a ?pick'em?. QB Seneca Wallace did not play well in relief on the all-world quarterback, but I expect a better performance in this game from him since he has a week of practice under his belt. That being said, the Packers will have to alter their gameplan to be effective in this game and rely on their running game to keep the Eagles off the field. Nothing bad can be said about the Eagles and QB Nick Foles after their record-setting performance last week in Oakland. But there is just no way they will be able to duplicate that performance again on Sunday. Green Bay has gone under the posted total in four of their last five home games.

5 Unit Play. #125/#225 Take Dallas Cowboys +7 over New Orleans Saints (Sunday 8:30 pm NBC) The Cowboys are just 5-4 on the season but they have not been blown out in any of their four losses and thus getting around a touchdown is too good to pass up in this game. New Orleans is a completely different team when they play at the Superdome but they still have major holes on defense evident by their performance last week against the Jets. The Jets have one of the worst offenses in the league and Dallas has a good run/pass option and should be able to move the football on the Saints. New Orleans can light up the scoreboard put I fully expect a shootout and a cover by the Cowboys. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

3 Unit Play. #175 Take Over 53 ½ - Kansas at Oklahoma St (4:00p.m., Saturday, Nov 9 FS1)
This play is all on the offense of the Cowboys of Oklahoma St. The last 2 games the Cowboys have played they scored 110 points and both of those games were on the road. The Kansas defense has been horrible and their 'D' is giving up an average of 41.8ppg. Oklahoma St QB Clint Chelf will have a big game threw the air and I see the Cowboys having no trouble scoring Saturday night. Kansas is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 games against a team with a winning record. Oklahoma St is 7-3 O/U in their last 10 conference games.

3 Unit Play. #179 Take Under 51 ½ - Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (8:00p.m., Saturday, Nov 9 NBC)
Yes I know Navy scored 34 points against Notre Dame but I know the Irish watched the film and I'm sure the defense practice hard after watching that tape. Pittsburgh at times can struggle and in 3 games out of 5 two of them they scored under 20 points. If Pittsburgh struggles on offense like they did against Georgia Tech this game will fly under and the Notre Dame defense will dominate. Notre Dame is 3-14 O/U in their last 17 ACC games and the Irish are also 3-9-1 O/U in their last 12 road games. Pittsburgh is 0-5 O/U in their last 5 games and the Panthers are 1-6 O/U in the month of November.

5 Unit Play. #201 Take Over 55 ½ - San Diego St at San Jose St (10:30p.m., Saturday, Nov 9 CBSC)
(Total Game of the Week)
Can someone please tell me why this total is not 58-59? San Jose St get this game at home and the Spartans will look to extend their winning streak to 5 games. To me seems like San Jose St can score over 30 points at will and their offense is averaging 39ppg in their 4-game winning streak. San Diego St defense is pretty mediocre and last week SDSU let New Mexico score 30 points on the road. Shocking! The Aztecs defense is allowing 32.2ppg and if Spartans RB Jarrod gets off early he will rush easily over 100 yards and the Spartans offense will have no trouble scoring. San Jose St is 6-2-1 O/U in their last 9 conference opponents. San Diego St is 8-2 O/U in their last 10 games following a ATS loss. San Diego St will need to go toe-to-toe on offense Saturday night to stay in this game and if I can get 20 plus points from the Aztecs I believe this game flies over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ALLEN EASTMAN

NCAAF - Week 11

6-Unit College Football Game of the Month ---- Pittsburgh

4* WIS -7.5

2* MIN -2

3* STANFORD +10 - (W)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

William Holloway / halloffamepicks

CFB
Tulane(+8.5)