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Guaranteed Plays
Matchup: Miami at Tampa Bay
Time: 8:40 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: miami -2.5
Line Source: 5Dimes
Posted on: November 11, 2013 @ 12:48:14 PM EST
Last week, the Seahawks took the opening kickoff straight down the field for an eleven-play drive that ended when Wilson threw an interception at the Bucs’ eleven-yard line. This allowed the Bucs to gain some confidence vs a flat Seahawks’ team. The 0-7 Buccaneers then raced out to a 21-0 lead before falling 27-24 in overtime. That has to be a tough loss for Tampa and we think they’ll not have much left here. The Bucs are 0-18 ATS at home after a road game in which they had more then 280 yards of offense and at least 34 minutes of possession time. The SDQL text is:
team=Buccaneers and H and p:A and p:TOP>2040 and season>=1990 and p:TY>280
Also, Tampa is 0-13 ATS off a road loss as a FG-plus dog in which they had at least 15 first downs, falling short of the linesmakers’ expectations by an average of 13.8 ppg. The SDQL text is:
team=Buccaneers and p:AL and p:line>=3 and p:FD>=15 and date>=20081221
The Dolphins are: 7-0 ATS (+6.43 ppg) on the road after a win in which a receiver had more than 75 receiving yards, 7-0 ATS (+5.71 ppg) on the road when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak, 7-0 ATS (+9.57 ppg) on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week, 6-0 ATS (+7.25 ppg) on the road after a win in which a receiver had a reception of 40+ yards and 6-0 ATS (+7.83 ppg) on the road the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times.
This is the type of game that brings out the best in the Dolphins. They are 500, they are on the road and games is supposed to be close. Miami is 8-0 ATS when they are 500 on the season, on the road when the line is within three of pickem. The SDQL text is:
team=Dolphins and A and -3<=line<=3 and wins=losses and season=2008
Lay the small number. MTi’s FORECAST: Miami 27 TAMPA BAY 20
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