11-14-13

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Colts at Titans: What bettors need to know

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 42)

A showdown in the AFC South lost a lot of its luster when the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans absorbed embarrassing home losses on Sunday. The host Titans could see their division title hopes disappear with a loss Thursday to the front-running Colts, who must rebound from a stunning 38-8 rout at the hands of the St. Louis Rams. Tennessee not only fell to previously winless Jacksonville, but may have lost quarterback Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury.

Indianapolis is in control of the division with a two-game lead over the Titans, but it fell behind 28-0 in the first half Sunday after trailing 21-3 at the half in an eventual win at Houston the previous week. "I take full responsibility for it as the football coach, we did not have this team ready to play," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said in the wake of Sunday's carnage. Tennessee has lost four of five and faces a three-game road trip following Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 42.

WEATHER: Clear skies, 1 mph wind and 45 degrees expected.

COVERS POWER RATING: Colts -3, Tennessee +3.5 plus add 3 points for home field = adjusted Covers line of Colts -3.5.

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): Indianapolis has beaten league heavyweights Seattle, San Francisco and Denver but its three losses have come against three clubs without a winning record. The Rams burned the Colts with three long touchdowns by rookie Tavon Austin, taking away Indianapolis' chances of trying to establish running back Trent Richardson, who has been a disaster since his acquisition from Cleveland, averaging 35.7 yards rushing over seven games. Although Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards, he was picked off three times - matching his total from the previous eight games.

ABOUT THE TITANS (4-5): Locker was on crutches following Sunday's game amid fears that he suffered a Lisfranc injury, continuing a trend that has seen him unable to stay healthy in his first three seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lost two starts in place of Locker last month, threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday but his fumble with just over 2 1/2 minutes to play stalled Tennessee's comeback. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Colts have won three straight meetings and swept the season series by a combined 10 points - including an OT victory - a year ago.

2. The Titans did not commit a turnover in their first four games but have coughed up the ball 13 times in their last five.

3. Fitzpatrick's two losses last month came against Seattle and Kansas City, which rank among the top three teams in points allowed.

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Georgia Tech at Clemson: What bettors need to know

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON (-11.5, 59)

Clemson has thrashed opposing defenses since being held to 14 points in a blowout loss to Florida State on Oct. 19, scoring 99 points in its past two games entering Thursday’s home contest against Georgia Tech. The No. 6 Tigers are 15th nationally in scoring as senior quarterback Tajh Boyd continues rewriting the school and ACC record books. Georgia Tech leads the Coastal Division with a 5-2 mark after a three-game winning streak, but must beat Clemson and avoid tying Miami and Virginia Tech atop the division standings to return to the conference title game.

Boyd’s four touchdowns in Clemson’s 59-10 rout of Virginia on Nov. 2 gave him 116 career touchdowns, most in ACC history, and he needs three more passing touchdowns to snap the conference record. Georgia Tech’s Jemea Thomas has won two of the past three ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors. The Yellow Jackets have improved defensively during their past three games, holding opponents to 35 points and recording a season-high five sacks in a 21-10 victory over Pittsburgh on Nov. 2.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Clemson -10

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (6-3, 5-2 ACC): It is no secret the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, averaging 311.2 yards on the ground, but 5-foot-7 A-back Robert Godhigh has established himself as Georgia Tech’s go-to back. Godhigh is averaging 11.3 yards of total offense per play, and 55 percent of his offensive touches result in first downs or touchdowns. Senior defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu has four sacks in his past two games and 25 in his career, six from the school career record.

ABOUT CLEMSON (8-1, 6-1 ACC): Sammy Watkins has benefited from Boyd’s strong season, needing just 18 yards to record his second career 1,000-yard receiving season and is 112 yards from the school’s career receiving yardage mark. Boyd is 41 rushing yards away from becoming the first quarterback in ACC history with at least 10,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing. Defensive lineman Vic Beasley has 10 sacks in nine games, helping fuel a Clemson defense that has allowed 14 points or less six times.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Clemson punter Bradley Pinion has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 20 of his 46 punts this season.

2. The Yellow Jackets allowed minus-5 yards rushing against Pittsburgh.

3. Georgia Tech leads the series 50-26-2, but Clemson is 11-6 against the Yellow Jackets at home.

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Factsman Thursday: Clemson -11

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NCAA Football Game Picks

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14 Time Posted: 11:00 a.m. EST (11/13)

Game 311-312: Georgia Tech at Clemson (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 100.389; Clemson 102.624 Dunkel Line: Clemson by 2; 64 Vegas Line: Clemson by 11; 59 Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+11); Over

Game 313-314: Marshall at Tulsa (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 87.033; Tulsa 69.647 Dunkel Line: Marshall by 17 1/2; 56 Vegas Line: Marshall by 13; 61 Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-13); Under

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Today's NFL Picks

Indianapolis at Tennessee

The Colts look to bounce back from their 38-8 loss to St. Louis last week and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Indianapolis is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14 Time Posted: 12:00 p.m. EST (11/13)

Game 309-310: Indianapolis at Tennessee (8:25 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.488; Tennessee 128.678 Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9; 38 Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 42 Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

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Tulsa 0-5 ATS when redshirt freshman QB plays

Tulsa redshirt Freshman quarterback Dane Evans will get just his third start of his career Thursday when he and the Golden Hurricane face the visiting Marshal Thundering Herd.

The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in the five games he's appeared this season.

Evans' start against East Carolina on Saturday was rough - he completed just 14-of-33 passes for 142 yards, a TD and two interceptions in a 58-24 loss.

The Texas product has just three touchdowns against six interceptions this year on a 2-7 Tulsa squad.

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Colts look to retain dominance over Titans Thursday
by Brian Graham

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 41.5

AFC South foes coming off embarrassing home losses meet Thursday when the Colts visit the Titans.

Last Sunday, Indy turned the ball over five times in a 38-8 loss to the Rams while Tennessee had four giveaways and fell 29-27 to the winless Jaguars. The Titans also lost starting QB Jake Locker to a season-ending foot injury in that defeat, and will revert back to QB Ryan Fitzpatrick who is 0-3 with significant playing time this year. The Colts have dominated this series in the past nine meetings, going 8-1 SU (6-3 ATS), including three straight wins by outrushing Tennessee 474 to 275. However, Indy rushed for a pathetic 18 yards on 14 carries in last week’s loss, while the Titans allowed only 54 yards on 30 carries. The good news for Fitzpatrick is that the Colts could be missing three defensive backs in S Delano Howell (neck) and CBs Greg Toler (head) and Josh Gordy (groin), who are all listed as questionable. Indy has two huge trends in its favor, as the team is 7-0 ATS after an SU loss since QB Andrew Luck joined the team, and 9-1 ATS in Thursday night games since 1992. But Tennessee benefits from two negative trends concerning the Colts, who are only 31-53 ATS (37%) after being outrushed by 75+ yards in their last game since 1992, and 9-24 ATS (27%) when facing a marginal losing team (40% to 49% win pct.) in that same timeframe.

Colts QB Andrew Luck threw 3 INT last week, which was quite uncharacteristic considering he had thrown just three picks over his first eight games combined. Indianapolis has not been a turnover-prone team, as before last week's five giveaways, the club had just six turnovers in the first eight games combined. While Luck certainly has the ability and track record to bounce back strong on Thursday, he did not play well against the Titans last year with 493 passing yards (6.9 YPA), 2 TD and 3 INT while being sacked six times in the two games. And that was when he had the services of top WR Reggie Wayne, who will miss the rest of 2013 with a torn ACL. However, second-year pro WR T.Y. Hilton has assumed the role of go-to receiver, catching 14 passes for 251 yards and 3 TD in the two games with Wayne out of action. But for the Colts to win this football game, RB Trent Richardson will have to run much better than he has been lately. In the past three contests, Richardson has a pitiful 59 yards on 27 carries (2.2 YPC), which includes his two yards on five attempts last week. No. 2 RB Donald Brown would lead the NFL in yards per carry (5.9 YPC) if he qualified, rumbling for 243 yards on just 41 totes. But he has carried the football only eight times in the past two games despite the struggles of Richardson. The Indy defense ranks ninth in the league in scoring (21.4 PPG allowed), thanks to a strong third-down defense (37.2% conversions, 11th in NFL) and red-zone efficiency (52.2%, 12th in league). In four road games, the Colts have given up a paltry 13.2 PPG and 329 total YPG. However, this unit gives up 8.1 yards per pass attempt (5th-worst in NFL) and 4.4 yards per carry (9th-worst in league) overall. The defense also needs to make more plays, tallying just three sacks and one takeaway over the past two contests.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick is just 3-9 in his past dozen starts, throwing for only 6.7 YPA, 13 TD and 12 INT. In his two starts this season, Fitzpatrick has 6.0 YPA, 1 TD and 4 INT, but to be fair, those games were against the Chiefs and Seahawks, who both have excellent defenses. Fitzpatrick also has a weak crop of receivers with WRs Kendall Wright (580 rec. yds, 1 TD) and Nate Washington (468 rec. yds, 2 TD) as his best options. Tennessee will try to win this game on the ground with its two-headed rushing attack of Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene. Although the duo combined for a paltry 52 yards on 21 carries (2.5 YPC) last week, they have both had success against the Colts. Johnson has totaled 746 yards in the past seven meetings with Indy, while Greene destroyed the Colts last season when he was with the Jets, carrying the ball 32 times for 161 yards (5.0 YPC) and 3 TD. Tennessee's defense has been very good against the pass (211 YPG, 8th in NFL), but has not stopped the run as effectively (115 YPG, 21st in league). Red-zone defense has also been a problem (65%, 3rd-worst in NFL), but the Titans have done a great job getting off the field on third downs (33%, 5th in league). They have also created a healthy number of big plays, forcing multiple turnovers five times in the past six games.

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No. 8 Clemson hosts Georgia Tech Thursday night
by Robert Livingston

Kickoff: Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clemson -10

Georgia Tech will look to stay hot and win its fourth in a row as it travels to No. 8 Clemson in a crucial ACC road game.

The Tigers have lost just once this year, getting demolished by powerhouse Florida State 51-14 three games ago. They have recovered since then with back-to-back wins, and own other quality victories on their schedule such as against Georgia. They are 4-4-1 ATS this season, including only 2-3 ATS at home. The Yellow Jackets hit a rough patch in the middle of their schedule, losing three consecutive games to Virginia Tech, Miami and BYU, but have also recovered well and have now won three consecutive games against Syracuse, Virginia and Pittsburgh. They covered in only one of those three wins, however, bringing them to 1-5 ATS in their past six games and 4-5 ATS overall. They are 1-3 ATS on the road and 0-2 ATS as an underdog. When these two teams played last year on Clemson’s turf, the Tigers rolled and covered with a 47-31 victory against an 11-point spread. They are 7-4 SU and ATS at home against Clemson since 1992. But over the past 10 years, underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (like Georgia Tech) coming off back-to-back conference wins, facing an opponent coming off a double-digit road win, are just 11-40 ATS (22%).

The Yellow Jackets rank fifth nationally in rushing yards as their triple-option offense carries them to 311.2 YPG on the ground. David Sims (610 rush yards, 5.4 YPC, 9 TD) is the team’s top rusher, while Robert Godhigh (473 yards, 11.3 YPC, 3 TD) and Zach Laskey (427 yards, 6.2 YPC, 6 TD) are also having strong seasons. Crafty QB Vad Lee takes the snaps for Georgia Tech, though he has yet to live up to his potential as both a passer and rusher. On the ground, he’s averaging just 2.9 YPC for 394 yards, though he has a solid six touchdowns. Through the air he is completing just 45.6% of his passes, yielding 1,005 yards, 8 TD and 6 INT. With the Jackets' ability to run off clock on the ground, their defense has given up a mere 18.8 PPG this season, 14th-fewest in FBS. Their rush defense is their strength, allowing only 3.4 YPC.

The Clemson offense’s strength is through the air, where it ranks 10th nationally with 332.7 passing YPG. Overall, the team’s 39.8 PPG puts it 16th in the country. Star QB Tajh Boyd leads that charge with 2,620 passing yards, completing 66% of his attempts for 20 TD and only 6 INT. Future NFL first-round pick Sammy Watkins is his go-to receiver, as the 6-foot-1 junior has 66 receptions for 982 yards and seven touchdowns. Roderick McDowell complements the passing game well on the ground with 677 yards (5.2 YPC) and three touchdowns. Boyd isn’t the most dynamic runner, averaging only 1.9 YPC on 100 attempts, but he has scored with his legs seven times. Clemson’s defense has given up 3.7 YPC to opposing rushers this year while opposing quarterbacks have completed just 52.4% of their passing attempts against their secondary.

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StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CFB GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (CLEMSON) in a game involving two dominant teams (outgaining opponents by 100+ YPG) after 7+ games, after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
28-10 since 1997. ( 73.7% 0.0 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% 0.0 units )

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WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Connecticut* over Detroit by 22
The travelin’ Titans have not been at their best when playing on the road and up in
class – when they actually had a roster full of scorers. Now, they have a lot to prove.
CONNECTICUT, 81-59.

***BEST BET
Boston College* over Toledo by 21
The Rockets’ lead-in to this was pretty weak in terms of opponents, while BC has
already hooked Providence and UMass. Toledo steps up in class on the road with a
very young bench. Providence brought a lot of size with them to control the boards
against BC, something little Toledo lacks.
BOSTON COLLEGE, 80-59.

Temple over Towson* by 3
The big Benimon kid is a producer for Towson, but one should never fall in love with
forward-laden talent playing up in class against a perpetual NCAA Tournament program.
TEMPLE, 74-71.

Rutgers* over Yale by 15
Rutgers’ 6’9” Kadeem Jack shouldn’t meet much opposition in the paint from the
Yalies. He has some scorers to support him if Yale decides to double-team to make it
harder.
RUTGERS, 78-63.

Wichita State* over William & Mary by 22
William & Mary’s ball-movement in search of open three-pointers works best against
lazy defensive opponents. If you play lazy defense for Wichita State head coach Greg
Marshall won’t have you around for long.
WICHITA STATE, 66-44.

*UAB over Troy by 9

Houston* over Texas San Antonio by 11

***BEST BET
Alabama* over Texas Tech by 25
Seven of Texas Tech’s last eight road losses in 2012-13 were by margins from 16 to 37
points. They were horrible shooting 3-pointerrs (28.8%) and turned it over a lot.
Alabama does a good job of forcing opposing offenses out of their comfort zone, and
Texas Tech is a team with a very narrow comfort zone. Alabama’s senior guard Trevor
Relaford got into foul trouble vs. Oklahoma and played only 22 minutes in that loss.
Angry bounce-back time.
ALABAMA, 74-49.

**PREFERRED
Loyola Marymount over Long Beach State* by 6
Two Loyola seniors and past contributors were recently banged-up in a car accident.
But one of them – 6’9”, Ayodeji Egbeyemi -- hasn’t missed any time and they’ve started 2-0 vs. weaker. Long Beach has mucho scoring to replace and the visitor
has…revenge! When Long Beach beat them 73-70 last year, Marymount was hung
over from being at the Great Alaska Shootout. Egbeyemi had 16 points and 11 boards
in that loss, and Long Beach is lacking depth in the frontcourt.
LOYOLA-MARYMOUNT,71-65.

San Diego State* over Arizona by 4
Arizona point guard T.J. McConnell, a transfer from Duquesne, left that school
because he wanted to play in the NCAA Tournament. Be careful what you wish for,
kid.
SAN DIEGO STATE, 68-64.

Stanford* over Northwestern by 14
If Northwestern plays defense for their first-season head as poorly as they did in their
opening win against Eastern Illinois, then Stanford will benefit because EIU bricked
out at the free-throw line.
STANFORD, 74-60.

Washington* over Cal-Irvine by 12
Cal-Irvine is probably an overrated team because they have a 7’6”, 290 player that
draws headlines and raves as a “game-changer” on the defensive end. But if Mamadou
Ndiaye was a real force, then he’d be playing somewhere other than a school that hasn’t made a post-season tournament since Bob Hope was entertaining the troops, right?
WASHINGTON, 70-58.

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WINNING POINTS

PRO BASKETBALL
Houston over *New York by 4
J.R. Smith is back from suspension, but defensive anchor Tyson Chandler is out a couple of more weeks with a broken bone in his leg forcing Amare Stoudemire and
Kenyon Martin to play extended minutes. Houston has a top-five offense and Dwight
Howard to take full advantage of Chandler's absence, which leaves the Knicks short
in the rebounding department.
HOUSTON 111-107.

*Golden State over Oklahoma City by 4
This will be Russell Westbrook's sixth game back following two off-season knee surgeries so the rust should be completely off. However, the Thunder were at the Clippers last night. Golden State was 16-6-1 ATS against Western Conference opponents.
GOLDEN STATE 110-106.

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Prediction Machine

NFL
8:25 PM @TEN - IND ♦ 3 ♦ -1.8 ♦ 53.1%
8:25 PM IND @ TEN ♦ 42 ♦ 46.2 ♦ Over 57.5%

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NBA

Hot teams
-- Thunder won four of its last five games. Warriors are 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 31-11-18 points.

Cold teams
-- Knicks lost four of their last six games; Houston lost three of last four.

Series records
-- Knicks lost their last seven games with Houston.
-- Thunder won seven of last eight games with Golden State.

Totals
-- Four of last five New York games went over the total.
-- Over is 9-3 in last twelve Thunder-Warrior games.

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Chicago Syndicate

CFB Clemson