11-16-13

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doc holiday
ok city thunder

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mysystempicks

NCAAF	11/16/2013	Wisconsin	Indiana	Indiana +27	2.5
NCAAF	11/16/2013	Temple	C Florida	C Florida -17.5	2.0
NCAAF	11/16/2013	Pitt	North Carolina	North Carolina PK	2.0
NCAAF	11/16/2013	Louisville	Houston	Lousiville -16.5	2.0
NCAAF	11/16/2013	Nevada	San Jose State	Nevada +7	2.0
NCAAF	11/16/2013	Oklahoma	Iowa State	Oklahoma -24	2.0

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RAS
Take weber state +2 game 585

Take Montna State +4 game 589

Take Santa Clara +1 game 533

Take Penn State -2 game 525

Take George Washington +5 1/2 game 591

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SB Professor 3.0
system plays florida+13
nevada+7

rest of games
texas+3
south alabama+7.5
nebraska+6
tcu+11
new mexico+6.5
south florida+1.5

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PURE LOCK
Vanderbilt

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SPORTS WAGERS

SOUTHERN MISS +17 over Florida Atlantic

This game is not going to attract a lot of attention. It’s a nothing game in a nothing conference between two nothing squads. The Eagles of Southern Miss have fallen on hard times. They are winless after nine games and they are likely to be winless after 11 games. It’s not unusual to see Southern Miss allow 55-60 points in a single afternoon. However, Allan Bridgford was relieved of his #1 QB status two weeks ago in favor of freshman Nick Mullens and the Eagles put up 323 passing yards against Marshall and 298 against Louisiana Tech with Mullens running the show. Still, the Eagles were blown out in both those games but it was the result of turnovers and not the teams’ inability to move the chains. The Golden Eagles take a huge step down in class from that pair when facing these Owls from Florida Atlantic.

FAU is a program that has some serious distractions, as Head Coach, Carl Pelini and defensive coordinator Pete Rekstis resigned on Oct. 30 after being accused of using illegal drugs. Both have stated that they were “forced to resign” and Pelini is seeking reinstatement. Pelini said his "forced resignation" occurred after Patrick Chun (FAU athletic director) and a university police officer took Pelini's phone and denied his requests to contact legal counsel. Chun said he could not comment about that specific allegation. We have not heard the last of this story but even in the best of times, the Owls shouldn’t be favored on the road by 17 points against an FCS school, let alone a team from within their conference. The Owls barely average more than 17 points a game. They come in with a 3-6 record and they have been favored by more than 3 points just one time over their last 10 games. Attacking bad favorites like this requires backing some truly awful teams at times but FAU does not have superior athletes to Southern Miss. The linesmakers had to come up with a number here and in this case, they came out with a bad one. Take the points and we’ll see you at the cashier’s window about 4:00 PM EST.


LOUISVILLE -16½ over Houston

This isn’t the first time this year that we’re stepping in against a Houston program that we’ve billed as overvalued the entire season. With a 7-2 record and some of the best passing numbers in the country, the Cougars most certainly have some appeal taking back this type of weight. Adding to its appeal was a good showing at #21 UCF last week, where Houston was receiving 13½-points and covered easy in a 19-14 loss. However, the Knights were flat last week and when you look at the entire picture regarding the Cougars you get a better idea of what team is about and it’s not as pretty as it seems. The Cougars have put up some gaudy numbers against some weak defenses and now they play the nation’s top-ranked unit. Houston’s lack of a running game means that they are going to have to pass to keep pace and that’s about the worst possible scenario for this visitor. Louisville thrives against teams that are forced to pass. Furthermore, the Cougars will play their third road game in four weeks and second long trip in a row after last week’s trip to Central Florida. The Cougars have had one of the easiest schedules in the country. They should have lost as an 18-point choice over South Florida two weeks ago but one of the most bizarre penalties ever called at this level prevented that from happening. Against the 1-8 Owls and the 2-6 Memphis Tigers (that pair is 0-9 in the conference), Houston won 22-13 and 25-15 respectively. The Cougars are all smoke and mirrors and it’s time that a true power puts them in their place.

Louisville and Houston are tied in the conference at 4-1. That’s bordering on lunacy. Comparing these two programs is like comparing Rob Ford to Fiorello H. LaGuardia. At home, the Cardinals have scored 49, 44, 72, 24, and 35 points respectively. Their defense allows an average of 10 points a game. Indeed the Cardinals have played some bad teams also and with that come some skewed numbers. However, the Cougars are a bad team also, playing against a Louisville squad that is playing at home for the first time in almost a month (Oct 18) and that is out to prove a point and distance themselves from this imposter. Yes, the points look sweet and that’s exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think. We’re suggesting otherwise.

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SPORTS WAGERS

Creighton -3½ over ST. JOSEPH’S

The preseason pick to win the A-10 last season, Saint Joseph's instead limped to an 8-8 finish. The Hawks figure to be better this season with the return of seniors Langston Galloway, Ronald Roberts Jr., and Halil Kanacevic, who are as good as any trio in the conference. However, the Hawks lost Carl Jones at the point and that’s a problem for a team that isn’t likely to shatter any scoring records. As we all know, guard play is crucial to success at this level and in the regard, St. Joe’s is in trouble with a lot of inexperience, which leads to mistakes. The Hawks got away with it against Vermont and Marist in their first two games but we’re not sure they are aware of what’s in store for them here.

Early in the season we like to pounce on teams that have been left out of the rankings that deserve to be there and the Creighton Bluejays fit. Not only have the Bluejays been wrongly left out (creating undervalue) but because of it, the team will play with a chip on its shoulder. We can't uderstand what the voters were thinking when they failed to include Creighton on their ballots. This same Creighton team entered last season's NCAA tournament as a No. 7 seed, and while the Bluejays do lose Gregory Echenique they also return first-team All-American Doug McDermott along with four other rotation mainstays: Grant Gibbs, Austin Chatman, Jahenns Manigat and Ethan Wragge. Creighton possesses one of the best offenses, if not the best offense in the nation this season. This team is a top 25 club for sure and maybe even a top-12. Yeah, they’re on the road and yeah they’re spotting road points but this is a cheap price to pay for a team that is very likely going to put up 80 points a night and blowout weaker opponents. This blowout game will put them on everyone’s radar. We’re on it before that.

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Bio Sports Picks
Houston +17
Alabama -23.5
Nevada +7

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SPORTS WAGERS

Buffalo +192 over TORONTO

OT included. Last night we suggested that the Sabres are likely to win one of two in this home and home series and didn’t plan on playing them tonight if they had won last night. However, this line has forced our hand and it’s a must play against a Maple Leafs team that is in trouble. Seriously, look at Toronto’s lineup; Paul Ranger, Jerred Smithson, Colton Orr, Trevor Smith, Frazer McLaren, Carter Ashton, Jay McClement, Mark Fraser, Cody Franson and Nikolai Kulemin. That’s 10 players that couldn’t sit on the Sabres bench. The Maple Leafs have scored five goals over their past five games and their only win over that span came against the Devils in a shootout. One would have to be institutionalized to believe the Sabres have no shot here. Hell, we like Buffalo’s chances of winning better than Toronto’s chance. When losing sets in and goals aren’t coming, it’s tough to shake.

It wasn’t exactly a thing of beauty but the Sabres did get the victory last night. Buffalo fell behind 1-0 early but rallied to win it. The Sabres held a one goal lead going to the third and maintained it until an empty netter sealed it. That was Buffalo’s third win in five games. Its other victories came against the Kings and Sharks. It was also the Sabres first two-game winning streak of the season and gives the team momentum and confidence coming into this one. The Sabres are in a better frame of mind with some recent wins, a new regime and a ton of talented youngsters that don’t get down. The arrival of Matt Moulson seems to have created a positive energy around the team and it didn’t take long for it to rub off on the others. Now going for three in a row and taking back a huge tag against this depleted and fragile host, the Sabres offer up way too much value to ignore. Huge overlay.


Chicago/NASHVILLE Over 5½

This might be the worst goaltending battle in the past 30 years. Nikolai Khabibulin is the confirmed starter for the Blackhawks here. Khabibulin allowed four goals on 22 shots in a loss to the Senators on October 29. Prior to that, Khabibulin was lit up for six goals on 26 shots in an overtime loss to the Lightning. Khabibulin comes in with a 4.73 GAA and .818 SV% in three starts this season. With Corey Crawford in net, the Blackhawks have surrendered four goals in back-to-back games and have allowed four goals or more in five of their last 10.

Nashville is forced to go with Carl Hutton here after the Predators lost 4-1 last night in Pittsburgh, Hutton replaced Marek Mazanec for the third period last night after the latter was pulled after two. Hutton’s last start was against the Devils last Sunday and he surrendered five goals on 23 shots (.783 save %). The Devils may not score five times in another game this season. Hutton was also yanked early in the first period the game prior against Winnipeg, after allowing three goals on eight shots. Prior to this season Hutton had just one prior NHL start and now he’s being asked to step it up against the Blackhawks. We don’t think so. Chicago has scored 19 goals total and four goals or more in four straight. They also have a different mindset when Khabibulin plays. The Blackhawks know all too well that they are going to have to score some goals to get a win. That’s an approach we can get on board with. We might see four goaltenders in this game.

Pass NBA

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Prediction Machine:
Fresno, Texas, WVU, SDSU, Pitt
Those are the White/Gray picks, the rest have been worthless on Saturdays
Yellow: W Mich, Rice, USA, BC, So Miss

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Score
Alabama-24

Davis and Hardy Sports
Ohio St-34
Oregon-27.5

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Wayne Root

perfect play: #376 Nebraska
Pinnacle: #384 USC

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charlie sports
500
utah +28
wis over 67
duke over 63

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Windy City

6% SMU

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Fat Jack
South Carolina
Florida St
Georgia
USC