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Week 11
Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8)—Not sure how Atlanta is favored over anyone, especially on road; they’ve lost six of last seven games- only win was 31-23 (-7) over Bucs in Week 7, in flagfest (both sides 100+ PY) where Tampa scored one TD, three FGs in four trips to red zone. Falcons ran ball 18 times for 18 yards that game, are now last in NFL in rushing but are 8-2 in last ten games vs Bucs, 3-1 in last four visits here. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 6 or less points. Tampa is on short work week after holding on for first win Monday night; they’ve led 21-0/15-0 in last two games, so they have talent, but they’ve been outscored 49-17 in second half of last three games, which suggests staff is being outcoached as far as halftime adjustments go. I mean, Bucs are 1-8 and they’ve only been minus in turnovers one game, and that was -1 vs Panthers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games, 4-0-1 in last five Tampa games.
Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)—Buffalo lost last three games, turning ball over seven times (-6) with different starting QB in every game, as they fade before Week 12 (latest) bye; they’re 2-3 at home, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points- none of their three wins are by more than a FG. Jets (-2.5) beat Buffalo 27-20 in Week 3, outgaining Bills 513-328, overcoming -2 turnover ratio, only game Jets have won this year with minus ratio; they’re now 7-1 in last eight series games, 3-1 in last four here (lost 28-9 at Buffalo LY). Gang Green averaged 11.4 yards/pass attempt in first meeting and sacked Manuel eight times- they’ve lost three of last four post-bye games, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten AFC East road tilts, 1-3 SU on road this year, with only win 30-28 at 2-7 Atlanta. Jets are 1-3 vs spread this season (0-4 SU) in game following a win. Bills lost last home game despite not allowing offensive TD; Chiefs’ defense scored twice against them in 23-13 win. Average total in last four series games is 53. Six of last seven Jet games, six of last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)—Detroit had huge divisional win last week, now leads division after winning last two games by total of three points; Lions ran ball for 143-145 yards last two games- they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Arizona/Green Bay, but they’ve lost last eight visits to Steel City, last non-loss was tie in 1959, before I was born. Steelers are 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last three by average score of 37-18, but these Steelers aren’t those Steelers. Pitt allowed 6-16-10 points in its three wins; they’re 0-5 allowing more than 16. Only game Detroit scored less than 21 was when Calvin Johnson was late scratch at Lambeau in Week 5 (L9-22). Lions are 4-3 as a favorite this year, Steelers 0-3 as underdog, with losses by 10-17-24 points. Pitt held four of last five opponents under 300 total yards, but gave up 610 to Patriots in fifth game. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread this season, 2-3 on road; AFC North underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-2 at home. Three of last four Lion games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)—Philly/Vick ran out to 26-7 halftime lead in opener vs Redskins, who weren’t well-prepared to face Kelly’s offense in his first NFL game (Eagles won 33-27); 10 weeks later, Foles is Iggles’ QB—they’ve scored 10 TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games but have also lost last 10 home games, scoring no TDs on 25 drives in last two. Redskins blew 24-14 halftime lead in last game at Minnesota, are now 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-15-24-7 points and only win at Oakland. Washington ran ball for 187.4 yards/game over last five games- they’re 0-4 this season when scoring less than 24 points. Redskins allowed TD on defense/special teams in five of last six games; they’ve allowed 15 TDs on opponents’ last 41 drives. Teams that played on Thursday night are 12-6 vs spread in their next game, 7-2 if they lost. Team that won first meeting also won rematch in this series in nine of last 11 years. Last four Washington games went over the total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.
Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)—San Diego is already making its fifth trip east of Mississippi in 11 weeks, its second in three weeks; Bolts are 2-3 on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami lost five of last six games, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs Monday and has major off-field distractions; their four home games have been decided by total of 11 points, with underdogs covering last three. Dolphins had 2 yards rushing on 14 carries Monday, their lowest total in 729 games in franchise history. Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, giving up 58 points (8 TDs on 21 drives) in losses by 8-6 points; they’ve lost last six visits to South Beach- last visit was famous ’81 41-38 playoff win in Fouts/Winslow era. Chargers gave up 9.1/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games; not sure Tannehill was weapons/ability to exploit that SD weakness—Fish averaged 4.8 ypa in Tampa Monday. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 8-3 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 10-3. Under is 3-1 in last four Charger games, 2-0-1 in last three Miami games.
Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)—Chicago has one of better backup QBs in McCown; he came in cold at end last week and led 74-yard TD drive that would’ve tied Detroit had they gotten 2-point conversion. He also played well in previous two games, vs Redskins/Packers, so he is capable leader. Bears are 3-2 at home, with wins by 3-1-6 points; they held Lions to 5.8 ypa last week, but 12 points on four trips to red zone was their undoing. Ravens snapped 3-game skid with OT win last week, after they gave up 51-yard TD pass on Hail Mary on last play of game; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG at Miami- they’re 1-4 when allowing more than 17 points, 3-1 when they allow 17 or less. Bears lost two of last three at home, scoring 18-19 in losses, their two lowest scoring games of year. Home teams won three of last four series games; Ravens lost two of last three visits here, with last one in ’09. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 2-6-1. Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under the total.
Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)— Three of last five Cincy games went OT, with Bengals losing last two weeks in extra time; they’re 4-0 at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 10-4-7-40 points. Cleveland held them to 266 yards in 17-6 upset win in Week 4 on Lake Erie, least years Bengals gained in game this year, but Browns haven’t swept season series since ’02, losing last four visits here, by 9-2-3-7 points. In fact, Bengals won second meeting of year in this series eight of last nine years. Favorites are 10-2 vs spread in Browns’ last 12 post-bye games; Cleveland is 2-6 as post-bye underdog, losing three of last four (losses by 16-7-3). Browns are 4-1 when anyone but Weeden starts at QB but they’re 1-3 on road (2-2 as road dogs) losing away games by 8-18-6 points- they averaged 7.6/6.1 yards/pass attempt in Campbell’s first two starts, their two best games in that category this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-9 vs spread this season. Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)—Houston is 7-point favorite despite not winning game since Sept 15; Coach Kubiak returns to sidelines this week, 14 days after his mini-stroke at halftime when Houston led Colts 21-3 in what was their best half of season. Kubiak is play-caller, so game management will be better; it was awful in his absence- they punted on 4th/10 from own 39 last week with 5:00 to go, down 27-17. Texans turned ball over only twice in Keenum’s three starts (+3), compared to 15 (-12) in Schaub’s six starts; Keenum seems to find Andre Johnson more often, which is a good thing. Oakland lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points. Texans won five of seven series games; Raiders won last visit here, in what I think was first game after Oakland icon Al Davis passed away. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Six of nine Houston games went over the total.
Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)—McCarthy thought enough of #3 QB Tolzien to name him starter until Rodgers returns; he becomes third different starting QB in Pack’s last three games- they signed former backup Flynn (cut by Raiders/Bills this year) to back him up. Green Bay lost last two games, scoring one TD, four FGs on seven trips to red zone. Defense has only three takeaways in last six games (-2); they’ve only been plus in turnovers one game this year (+1 vs Browns in Week 7). Giants won last three games after 0-6 start; they allowed 27+ points in all six losses; they’ve allowed 7-7-20 points in last three games, but allowed TD on defense/special teams in four straight games. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Packers won four of last five visits here, losing 38-10 LY. Two TDs Raiders scored last week were by defense and on a 5-yard drive after Giants fumbled opening kickoff. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 2-3. Five of last six Packer games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)—First road game in five weeks is must-win game for Arizona if they’re legit playoff contenders in NFC; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 13-10 at 1-8 Tampa Bay in Week 4- three of their five wins are by 4 or less points. Jax got four takeaways (+2) in first win last week in Nashville; they had total of eight (-7) in first eight games. Jaguars were outscored 131-21 (33-5 average) in losing first four home games, scoring one TD on 41 drives- they lost backup LB/special teamer Reynolds to PED suspension, second week in row they’ve had player suspended. Cardinals have 18 3/outs on 38 drives in their last three road games- on their first drive in last six games, Cardinals gained total of 83 yards on 26 plays; a fast start against a bad team would be big here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-8-1, 2-5 at home. Road team won two of three series meetings; Arizona split its two visits here. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Redbird tilts went over the total.
Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)—Reid had been 13-0 in post-bye games until he lost LY, when everything fell apart in Philly; unbeaten Chiefs won 26-16 (+3) at Philly in Reid’s return in Week 3, only time they’ve been underdog this year. After facing five QBs in row who were backups in training camp, Manning’s offense, averaging 41.2 ppg, awaits here. Denver has 26 TDs on 56 drives at home this year, but Manning tweaked ankle at end of Charger game last week, so he’s not 100%, not that he was ever mobile. No one has scored more than 17 points on Chiefs this year; can their edge rushers get to an immobile QB? Broncos are 4-1 as home favorites this year; only non-cover was when they laid 27 to Jaguars, won by 16. KC scored total of 32 points in last five series games; they’ve split last four visits here, after losing previous eight visits to Denver. Divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 10-6 vs spread so far this season. Eight of nine Denver games went over total; seven of nine Chief games stayed under.
Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)—Seattle gets former Viking WR Harvin back just in time for Minnesota’s visit. Vikings snapped 4-game skid with comeback win over Redskins 10 days ago; QB Ponder got hurt late (left shoulder) but is expected to go here. Minnesota is 2-2 as a true road underdog, losing away games by 10-1-16-4 points- they won on neutral field in London. Last game before late bye for Seattle, which is 2-2 as home favorite, winning all four home games by 21-28-7-3 points; they’ve won five games in row overall- only two of their last six wins are by more than seven points. Seahawks converted 17-32 on 3rd down in last two games, running ball for 409 yards, but falling behind 21-0 to Bucs in last home game is alarming. In ten games, Seattle has lost field position only once, in Week 7 at Arizona; they’ve also been minus in turnovers only once all year, and won that game too. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 2-3. Eight of nine Minnesota games went over the total.
49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)—New Orleans won/covered all five home games this year, winning in Superdome by 6-24-21-18-32 points, while scoring 35.2 ppg. Only once have they been below 8.1 yards/pass attempt at home- they haven’t been above 7.6 in four road games. 49ers beat Saints 36-31/31-21 last two years, after New Orleans won previous six meetings; Niners scored 3-9-7 points in their three losses, completing 50% or less of passes in all three games. Much like Seattle, 49ers are a bully team, with last five wins all by 12+ points; only two of their games (1-1) this year have been decided by less than 12 points. Kaepernick was 11-22/46 yards passing last week; ain’t beating a good team throwing like that. Saints had seven TDs last week; only one was on drive of less than 75 yards, as they set NFL record with 40 first downs (only 12 of their 80 plays came on third down, and they converted 9-12 into first downs). NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season; NFC West underdogs are 6-5, 4-4 on road. Over is 4-0 in last four Saint games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.
Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)—Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.
Week 11
Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8)—Not sure how Atlanta is favored over anyone, especially on road; they’ve lost six of last seven games- only win was 31-23 (-7) over Bucs in Week 7, in flagfest (both sides 100+ PY) where Tampa scored one TD, three FGs in four trips to red zone. Falcons ran ball 18 times for 18 yards that game, are now last in NFL in rushing but are 8-2 in last ten games vs Bucs, 3-1 in last four visits here. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 6 or less points. Tampa is on short work week after holding on for first win Monday night; they’ve led 21-0/15-0 in last two games, so they have talent, but they’ve been outscored 49-17 in second half of last three games, which suggests staff is being outcoached as far as halftime adjustments go. I mean, Bucs are 1-8 and they’ve only been minus in turnovers one game, and that was -1 vs Panthers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games, 4-0-1 in last five Tampa games.
Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)—Buffalo lost last three games, turning ball over seven times (-6) with different starting QB in every game, as they fade before Week 12 (latest) bye; they’re 2-3 at home, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points- none of their three wins are by more than a FG. Jets (-2.5) beat Buffalo 27-20 in Week 3, outgaining Bills 513-328, overcoming -2 turnover ratio, only game Jets have won this year with minus ratio; they’re now 7-1 in last eight series games, 3-1 in last four here (lost 28-9 at Buffalo LY). Gang Green averaged 11.4 yards/pass attempt in first meeting and sacked Manuel eight times- they’ve lost three of last four post-bye games, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten AFC East road tilts, 1-3 SU on road this year, with only win 30-28 at 2-7 Atlanta. Jets are 1-3 vs spread this season (0-4 SU) in game following a win. Bills lost last home game despite not allowing offensive TD; Chiefs’ defense scored twice against them in 23-13 win. Average total in last four series games is 53. Six of last seven Jet games, six of last nine Buffalo games went over the total.
Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)—Detroit had huge divisional win last week, now leads division after winning last two games by total of three points; Lions ran ball for 143-145 yards last two games- they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Arizona/Green Bay, but they’ve lost last eight visits to Steel City, last non-loss was tie in 1959, before I was born. Steelers are 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last three by average score of 37-18, but these Steelers aren’t those Steelers. Pitt allowed 6-16-10 points in its three wins; they’re 0-5 allowing more than 16. Only game Detroit scored less than 21 was when Calvin Johnson was late scratch at Lambeau in Week 5 (L9-22). Lions are 4-3 as a favorite this year, Steelers 0-3 as underdog, with losses by 10-17-24 points. Pitt held four of last five opponents under 300 total yards, but gave up 610 to Patriots in fifth game. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread this season, 2-3 on road; AFC North underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-2 at home. Three of last four Lion games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.
Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)—Philly/Vick ran out to 26-7 halftime lead in opener vs Redskins, who weren’t well-prepared to face Kelly’s offense in his first NFL game (Eagles won 33-27); 10 weeks later, Foles is Iggles’ QB—they’ve scored 10 TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games but have also lost last 10 home games, scoring no TDs on 25 drives in last two. Redskins blew 24-14 halftime lead in last game at Minnesota, are now 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-15-24-7 points and only win at Oakland. Washington ran ball for 187.4 yards/game over last five games- they’re 0-4 this season when scoring less than 24 points. Redskins allowed TD on defense/special teams in five of last six games; they’ve allowed 15 TDs on opponents’ last 41 drives. Teams that played on Thursday night are 12-6 vs spread in their next game, 7-2 if they lost. Team that won first meeting also won rematch in this series in nine of last 11 years. Last four Washington games went over the total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.
Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)—San Diego is already making its fifth trip east of Mississippi in 11 weeks, its second in three weeks; Bolts are 2-3 on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami lost five of last six games, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs Monday and has major off-field distractions; their four home games have been decided by total of 11 points, with underdogs covering last three. Dolphins had 2 yards rushing on 14 carries Monday, their lowest total in 729 games in franchise history. Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, giving up 58 points (8 TDs on 21 drives) in losses by 8-6 points; they’ve lost last six visits to South Beach- last visit was famous ’81 41-38 playoff win in Fouts/Winslow era. Chargers gave up 9.1/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games; not sure Tannehill was weapons/ability to exploit that SD weakness—Fish averaged 4.8 ypa in Tampa Monday. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 8-3 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 10-3. Under is 3-1 in last four Charger games, 2-0-1 in last three Miami games.
Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)—Chicago has one of better backup QBs in McCown; he came in cold at end last week and led 74-yard TD drive that would’ve tied Detroit had they gotten 2-point conversion. He also played well in previous two games, vs Redskins/Packers, so he is capable leader. Bears are 3-2 at home, with wins by 3-1-6 points; they held Lions to 5.8 ypa last week, but 12 points on four trips to red zone was their undoing. Ravens snapped 3-game skid with OT win last week, after they gave up 51-yard TD pass on Hail Mary on last play of game; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG at Miami- they’re 1-4 when allowing more than 17 points, 3-1 when they allow 17 or less. Bears lost two of last three at home, scoring 18-19 in losses, their two lowest scoring games of year. Home teams won three of last four series games; Ravens lost two of last three visits here, with last one in ’09. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 2-6-1. Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under the total.
Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)— Three of last five Cincy games went OT, with Bengals losing last two weeks in extra time; they’re 4-0 at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 10-4-7-40 points. Cleveland held them to 266 yards in 17-6 upset win in Week 4 on Lake Erie, least years Bengals gained in game this year, but Browns haven’t swept season series since ’02, losing last four visits here, by 9-2-3-7 points. In fact, Bengals won second meeting of year in this series eight of last nine years. Favorites are 10-2 vs spread in Browns’ last 12 post-bye games; Cleveland is 2-6 as post-bye underdog, losing three of last four (losses by 16-7-3). Browns are 4-1 when anyone but Weeden starts at QB but they’re 1-3 on road (2-2 as road dogs) losing away games by 8-18-6 points- they averaged 7.6/6.1 yards/pass attempt in Campbell’s first two starts, their two best games in that category this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-9 vs spread this season. Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.
Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)—Houston is 7-point favorite despite not winning game since Sept 15; Coach Kubiak returns to sidelines this week, 14 days after his mini-stroke at halftime when Houston led Colts 21-3 in what was their best half of season. Kubiak is play-caller, so game management will be better; it was awful in his absence- they punted on 4th/10 from own 39 last week with 5:00 to go, down 27-17. Texans turned ball over only twice in Keenum’s three starts (+3), compared to 15 (-12) in Schaub’s six starts; Keenum seems to find Andre Johnson more often, which is a good thing. Oakland lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points. Texans won five of seven series games; Raiders won last visit here, in what I think was first game after Oakland icon Al Davis passed away. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Six of nine Houston games went over the total.
Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)—McCarthy thought enough of #3 QB Tolzien to name him starter until Rodgers returns; he becomes third different starting QB in Pack’s last three games- they signed former backup Flynn (cut by Raiders/Bills this year) to back him up. Green Bay lost last two games, scoring one TD, four FGs on seven trips to red zone. Defense has only three takeaways in last six games (-2); they’ve only been plus in turnovers one game this year (+1 vs Browns in Week 7). Giants won last three games after 0-6 start; they allowed 27+ points in all six losses; they’ve allowed 7-7-20 points in last three games, but allowed TD on defense/special teams in four straight games. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Packers won four of last five visits here, losing 38-10 LY. Two TDs Raiders scored last week were by defense and on a 5-yard drive after Giants fumbled opening kickoff. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 2-3. Five of last six Packer games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)—First road game in five weeks is must-win game for Arizona if they’re legit playoff contenders in NFC; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 13-10 at 1-8 Tampa Bay in Week 4- three of their five wins are by 4 or less points. Jax got four takeaways (+2) in first win last week in Nashville; they had total of eight (-7) in first eight games. Jaguars were outscored 131-21 (33-5 average) in losing first four home games, scoring one TD on 41 drives- they lost backup LB/special teamer Reynolds to PED suspension, second week in row they’ve had player suspended. Cardinals have 18 3/outs on 38 drives in their last three road games- on their first drive in last six games, Cardinals gained total of 83 yards on 26 plays; a fast start against a bad team would be big here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-8-1, 2-5 at home. Road team won two of three series meetings; Arizona split its two visits here. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Redbird tilts went over the total.
Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)—Reid had been 13-0 in post-bye games until he lost LY, when everything fell apart in Philly; unbeaten Chiefs won 26-16 (+3) at Philly in Reid’s return in Week 3, only time they’ve been underdog this year. After facing five QBs in row who were backups in training camp, Manning’s offense, averaging 41.2 ppg, awaits here. Denver has 26 TDs on 56 drives at home this year, but Manning tweaked ankle at end of Charger game last week, so he’s not 100%, not that he was ever mobile. No one has scored more than 17 points on Chiefs this year; can their edge rushers get to an immobile QB? Broncos are 4-1 as home favorites this year; only non-cover was when they laid 27 to Jaguars, won by 16. KC scored total of 32 points in last five series games; they’ve split last four visits here, after losing previous eight visits to Denver. Divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 10-6 vs spread so far this season. Eight of nine Denver games went over total; seven of nine Chief games stayed under.
Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)—Seattle gets former Viking WR Harvin back just in time for Minnesota’s visit. Vikings snapped 4-game skid with comeback win over Redskins 10 days ago; QB Ponder got hurt late (left shoulder) but is expected to go here. Minnesota is 2-2 as a true road underdog, losing away games by 10-1-16-4 points- they won on neutral field in London. Last game before late bye for Seattle, which is 2-2 as home favorite, winning all four home games by 21-28-7-3 points; they’ve won five games in row overall- only two of their last six wins are by more than seven points. Seahawks converted 17-32 on 3rd down in last two games, running ball for 409 yards, but falling behind 21-0 to Bucs in last home game is alarming. In ten games, Seattle has lost field position only once, in Week 7 at Arizona; they’ve also been minus in turnovers only once all year, and won that game too. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 2-3. Eight of nine Minnesota games went over the total.
49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)—New Orleans won/covered all five home games this year, winning in Superdome by 6-24-21-18-32 points, while scoring 35.2 ppg. Only once have they been below 8.1 yards/pass attempt at home- they haven’t been above 7.6 in four road games. 49ers beat Saints 36-31/31-21 last two years, after New Orleans won previous six meetings; Niners scored 3-9-7 points in their three losses, completing 50% or less of passes in all three games. Much like Seattle, 49ers are a bully team, with last five wins all by 12+ points; only two of their games (1-1) this year have been decided by less than 12 points. Kaepernick was 11-22/46 yards passing last week; ain’t beating a good team throwing like that. Saints had seven TDs last week; only one was on drive of less than 75 yards, as they set NFL record with 40 first downs (only 12 of their 80 plays came on third down, and they converted 9-12 into first downs). NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season; NFC West underdogs are 6-5, 4-4 on road. Over is 4-0 in last four Saint games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.
Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)—Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.
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